Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 896-914

  Sleeter, Benjamin M ^a   Sohl, Terry L ^b   Bouchard, Michelle A ^b   Reker, Ryan R ^b   Soulard, Christopher E ^a   Acevedo, William ^a   Griffith, Glenn E ^b   Sleeter, Rachel R ^a   Auch, Roger F ^b   Sayler, Kristi L ^b   Prisley, Stephen ^c   Zhu, Zhiliang ^b  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^c VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Change; Downscaling; Ecoregions; IPCC; Land cover; Land use; Scenarios; SRES; United States

Indexed keywords

DOWNSCALING; ECOREGION; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; EXPERT SYSTEM; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; LAND COVER; LAND USE CHANGE; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT; SPATIAL RESOLUTION;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84866169025     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Abildtrup J., Audsley E., Fekete-Farkas M., Giupponi C., Gylling M., Rosato P., Rounsevell M.D.A. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach. Environmental Science and Policy 2006, 9:101-115.
2. Alcamo J., Kok K., Busch G., Priess J. Searching for the future of land: scenarios from the local to global scale. Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis 2008, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. J. Alcamo (Ed.).
3. Arnell N.W. Climate change and global water resources: SRESemissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2003, 14:31-52.
4. Arnell N.W., Livermore M.J.L., Kovats S., Levy P.E., Nicholls R., Parry M.L., Gaffin S.R. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterizing the SRES storylines. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:3-20.
5. Busch G. Future European agricultural landscapes-what can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies?. Agricultural, Ecosystems, and Environment 2006, 114:121-140.
6. Casperson J.P., Pacala S.W., Jenkins J.C., Hurtt G.C., Moorcroft P.R., Birdsey R.A. Contributions of land-use history to carbon accumulation in U.S. forests. Science 2000, 290:1148-1151.
7. Couclelis H. Modeling frameworks, paradigms and approaches. Geographic Information Systems and Environmental Modeling 2002, 36-50. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River. K.C. Clarke, B.O. Parks, M.P. Crane (Eds.).
8. Drummond M.A., Loveland T.R. Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the Eastern United States. Bioscience 2010, 60(4):286-298.
9. Eidenshink J., Schwind B., Brewer K., Zhu Z., Quayle B., Howard S. A project for monitoring trends in burn severity. Fire Ecology 2007, 3(1):3-21.
10. EPA (U.S.Environmental Protection Agency) Level III Ecoregions of the Continental United States: Corvallis, Oregon 1999, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, scale 1:7,500,000.
11. EPA (U.S.Environmental Protection Agency) Land-use scenarios: national-scale housing-density scenarios consistent with climate change storylines. Global Change Research Program 2009, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-08/076F. Available from: National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA, and online at http://www.epa.gov/ncea.
12. Ewert F., Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., Metzger M.J., Leemans R. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. I: estimating changes in crop productivity. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 2005, 107:101-116.
13. Gaffin S.R., Rosenzweig C., Xing X., Yetman G. Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:105-123.
14. Holman, I.P., Loveland, P.J., (Eds.), 2001. Regional climate change impact and response studies in East Anglia and North West England (RegIS). Final Report of MAFF Project No. CC0337. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/.
15. Holman I.P., Rounsevell M.D.A., Harrison P.A., Nicholls R.J., Berry P.M., Audsley E., Shackley S. A regional, multisectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and socio-economic change in the UK. Climatic Change 2005, 71:9-41.
16. Homer C., Huang C., Yang L., Wylie B., Coan M. Development of a 2001 National Landcover Database for the United States. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 2004, 70(7):829-840.
17. Huang C., Goward S.N., Masek J.G., Thomas N., Zhu Z., Vogelmann J.E. An automated approach for reconstructing recent forest disturbance history using dense Landsat time series stacks. Remote Sensing of Environment 2010, 114:183-198.
18. Hurtt G.C., Chini L.P., Frolking S., Betts R., Feddema J., Fischer G., Goldewijk K.K., Hibbard K., Janetos A., Jones C., Kinderman G., Kinoshita T., Riahi K., Shevliakova E., Smith S., Stehfest E., Thomson A., Thornton P., vanVuuren D., Wang Y.P. Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5. iLEAPS Newsletter 2009, 7:6-8.
19. IMAGE Team The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: a comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century. RIVM CD-ROM Publication 481508018 2001, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
20. IPCC Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, 377. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. R.T. Watson, I.R. Noble, B. Bolin, N.H. Ravindranath, D.J. Verardo, D.J. Dokken (Eds.).
21. IPCC Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001, 398. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. R.T. Watson, the Core Writing Team (Eds.).
22. Johns T.C., Gregory J.M., Ingram W.J., Johnson C.E., Jones A., Lowe J.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Roberts D.L., Sexton D.M.H., Stevenson D.S., Tett S.F.B., Woodage M.J. Anthropogenic climate change from 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Climate Dynamics 2003, 20:583-612.
23. Kainuma M., Matsuoka Y., Morita T. Climate Policy Assessment: Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling 2002, Springer, Tokyo.
24. Kankaanpaa S., Carter T.R. Construction of European forest land use scenarios for the 21st century. The Finnish Environment 707 2004, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, 57 pp.
25. 2 concentration and land use on natural ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink. Global Environmental Change 2003, 14:21-30.
26. Loveland T.R., Sohl T.L., Stehman S.V., Gallant A.L., Sayler K.L., Napton D.E. A strategy for estimating the rates of recent United States land-cover changes. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 2002, 68(10):1091-1099.
27. Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., van Vuuren D.P., Carter T.R., Emori S., Kainuma M., Kram T., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Nakicenovic N., Riahi K., Smith S.J., Stouffer R.J., Thomson A.M., Weyant J.P., Wilbanks T.J. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010, 463:747-756.
28. Napton D.E., Auch R.F., Headley R., Taylor J.L. Land changes and their driving forces in the Southeastern United States. Regional Environmental Change 2010, 10:37-53.
29. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. N. Nakicenovic, R. Swart (Eds.).
30. Nicholls R.J. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:69-86.
31. Omernik J.M. Ecoregions of the conterminous United States (map supplement). Annals of the Association of American Geographers 1987, 77:118-125. scale 1:7,500,000.
32. Omernik J.M. Ecoregions - a spatial framework for environmental management. Biological Assessment and Criteria-Tools for Water Resource Planning and Decision Making. 1995, 49-62. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, FL. W.S. Davis, T.P. Simon (Eds.).
33. Omernik J.M. Perspectives on the nature and definition of ecological regions. Environmental Management 2004, 34:S27-S38.
34. Omernik J.M., Chapman S.S., Lillie R.A., Dumke R.T. Ecoregions of Wisconsin. Transactions of the Wisconsin Academy of Sciences, Arts and Letters 2000, 88:77-103.
35. PAD-US Protected Areas Database of the United States 2010, (accessed 30.11.10). http://www.protectedlands.net/padus/.
36. Parry, M.L., Livermore, M.T.J., Park, S., et al., 2001. The impact of climate change on UK agriculture. Final Report of MAFF Project No. CC0339.
37. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:53-67.
38. Peterson G.D., Cumming G.S., Carpenter S.R. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conservation Biology 2003, 17:358-366.
39. Raskin P., Gallopin G., Gutman P., Hammond A., Swart R. Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. A Report to the Global Scenario Group, PoleStar Series Report No. 8 1998, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
40. Raskin P., Monks F., Ribeiro T., van Vuuren D., Zurek M. Global scenarios in historical perspective. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios - Findings of the Scenarios Working Group Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Series 2005, 35-44. Island Press, Washington, DC. S. Carpenter, P. Pingali, E. Bennett, M. Zurek (Eds.).
41. Reginster I., Rounsevell M.D.A. Scenarios of future urban land use in Europe. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 2006, 33(4):619-636.
42. Rounsevell M.D.A., Ewert F., Reginster I., Leemands R., Carter T.R. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 2005, 107:117-135.
43. Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., Araujo M.B., Carter T.R., Dendoncker N., Ewert F., House J.I., Kankaanpaa S., Leemans R., Metzger M.J., Schmit C., Smith P., Tuck G. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 2006, 114:57-68.
44. Sleeter B.M., Wilson T.S., Soulard C.E., Liu J. Estimation of late twentieth century land-cover change in California. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2011, 173:251-266.
45. Sohl T.L., Sayler K.L., Drummond M.A., Loveland T.R. The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling. Journal of Land Use Science 2007, 2(2):103-126.
46. Sohl T.L., Sayler K. Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States. Ecological Modeling 2008, 219:49-65.
47. Sohl T.L., Sleeter B.M., Zhu Z., Sayler K.L., Bennett S., Bouchard M., Reker R., Hawbaker T., Wein A., Liu S., Kanengieter R., Acevedo W. A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes. Applied Geography 2012, 34:111-124.
48. Solecki W.D., Oliveri C. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model. Journal of Environmental Management 2004, 72:105-115.
49. Stehman S.V., Sohl T.L., Loveland T.R. Statistical sampling to characterize recent United States land-cover change. Remote Sensing of Environment 2003, 86:517-529.
50. Strengers B., Leemans R., Eickhout B., de Vries B., Bouwman L. The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model. GeoJournal 2004, 61:381-393.
51. Swart R.J., Raskin P., Robinson J. The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change 2004, 12:137-146.
52. Turner B.L., Skole D.L., Sanderson S., Fischer G., Fresco L., Leemans R. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Science/Research Plan. IGBP Report No. 35 and HDP Report No. 7 1995, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, Stockholm, Sweden, 132 pp.
53. Van Lieshout M., Kovats S., Livermore M.T.J., Martens S., et al. Climate change and malaria: who is vulnerable?. Global Environmental Change 2003, 14:87-99.
54. van Meijl H., van Rheenen T., Tabeau A., Eickhout B. The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 2006, 114:21-38.
55. vanVuuren D.P., Lucas P.L., Hilderink H. Downscaling drivers of global environmental change scenarios: enabling use of the IPCC-SRES scenarios at the national and grid level. Global Environmental Change 2007, 17:114-130.
56. van Vuuren D.P., Smith S.J., Riahi K. Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review. Climate Change 2010, 1:393-404.
57. Verburg P.H., Soepboer W., Veldkamp A., Limpiada R., Espaldon V., Mastura S.S.A. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environmental Management 2002, 30:391-405.
58. Verburg P.H., Schulp C.J.E., Witte N., Veldkamp A. Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 2006, 114:39-56.
59. Vogelmann J.E., Howard S.M., Yang L., Larson C.R., Wylie B.K., Van Driel N. Completion of the 1990 National Land Cover Data set for the conterminous United States from Landsat thematic mapper data and ancillary data sources. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 2001, 67(6):650-662.
60. Wilbanks T.J., Kates R.W. Global change in local places: how scale matters. Climatic Change 1999, 43:601-628.
61. Xian G., Homer C., Fry J. Updating the 2001 National Land Cover Database land cover classification to 2006 by using Landsat imagery change detection methods. Remote Sensing of Environment 2009, 113(6):1133-1147.
62. Zaehle S., Bondeau A., Carter T.R., Cramer W., Erhard M., Prentice I.C., Reginster I., Rounsevell M.D.A., Sitch S., Smith B., Smith P.C., Sykes M. Projected changes in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land-use change, 1990-2100. Ecosystems 2007, 10:380-401.
63. Zhu Z., Bergamaschi B., Bernknopf R., Clow D., Dye D., Faulkner S., Forney W., Gleason R., Hawbaker T., Liu J., Liu S., Prisley S., Reed B., Reeves M., Rollins M.G., Sleeter B., Sohl T.L., Stackpoole S., Stehman S., Striegl R., Wein A. Public review draft-a method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios. U.S. Geological Scientific Investigations Report, 2010-5233 2010, 196 pp., plus nine appendixes, available only online at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/ofr/ofr20101144.