Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change

Risk Analysis

Volumn 32, Issue 12, 2012, Pages 2098-2112

  Mcdaniels, Timothy ^a   Mills, Tamsin ^b   Gregory, Robin ^c   Ohlson, Dan ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b City of Vancouver and Compass Resource Management Ltd ^*  (Canada)

^c Decision Research   (Canada)

^d Compass Resource Management Ltd ^*  (Canada)

Author keywords

Climate adaptation; Expert elicitation; Forest land management; Mountain pine beetle; Robust decision making

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE ADAPTATION; EXPERT ELICITATION; FOREST LAND; MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE; ROBUST DECISIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; LAND USE; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS;

FORESTRY;

ADAPTATION; BEETLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DATA SET; DECISION MAKING; DOMINANCE; FORECASTING METHOD; FOREST MANAGEMENT; INSTRUMENTATION; LAND MANAGEMENT; STOCHASTICITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; CANADA; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORECASTING; FORESTRY; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

BRITISH COLUMBIA; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORECASTING; FORESTRY; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

DECISION MAKING; FORESTRY; INSECTS; LAND USE; PINUS MUGO;

BRITISH COLUMBIA; CANADA;

COLEOPTERA; PINUS MUGO;

EID: 84871172675     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01822.x     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Morgan MG, Kandlikar M, Risbey J, Dowlatabadi H. Why conventional tools for policy analysis are often inadequate for problems of global change. Climatic Change, 1999; 41:271-281.
2. Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (cited as MEA). Ecosystems and human well-being: Current state and trends: Findings of the condition and trends working group. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Series. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005.
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (cited as IPCC). Synthesis Report, 2007. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf, Accessed on June 12, 2009.
4. Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME. Robust strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change, 2000; 45(3-4):387-401.
5. Lempert RJ, Popper SW, Bankes SC. Shaping the Next 100 Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analyses. Santa Monica : Rand-Pardee Center, 2003.
6. Lempert RJ, Groves DG, Popper SW, Bankes SC. A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Management Science, 2006; 52(4):514-528.
7. Lempert RJ. A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2002; 99(Suppl.3):7309-7313.
8. FORREX. Website Linkages for the Mountain Pine Beetle Crisis. Available at: http://barkbeetlelinks.forrex.org, Accessed January-June, 2010.
9. Mills T, Gregory R, McDaniels T, Ohlson D, Blackwell B. Structured decision making for climate change adaptation in large-scale social-environmental systems: Mountain Pine Beetles in British Columbia. Working Paper, 2010.
10. Morgan MG, Dowlatabadi H, Henrion M, Keith D, Lempert R, McBride S, Small M, Wilbanks T (eds). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decision Making: Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2. U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Washington, DC : National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009.
11. Ben-Haim Y. Information-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty. Oxford : Academic Press, 2001.
12. Levin AT, Williams JC. Robust monetary policy with competing reference models. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003; 50(5):945-975.
13. Rosenhead J. Robustness analysis: Keeping your options open. Pp. 181-208 in Rosenhead J, Mingers J (eds). Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty, and Conflict. Chichester, UK : Wiley and Sons, 2001.
14. Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME, Bankes SC. When we don't know the costs or the benefits: Adaptive strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change, 1996; 33:235-274.
15. Groves DG, Lempert RJ, Knopman D, Berry SH. Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in the Inland Empire: Identifying Robust Water-Management Strategies. Santa Monica : Rand, 2008.
16. Keeney RL. Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press, 1992.
17. Morgan MG, Henrion M. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY : Cambridge University Press, 1990.
18. McDaniels T. Using judgment in resource management: An analysis of a fisheries management decision. Operations Research, 1995; 43(3):415-426.
19. Keeney RL, von Winterfeldt D. On the uses of expert judgment on complex technical problems. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 1989; 36(2):83-86.
20. Keeney RL, von Winterfeldt D. Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 1991; 38(3):191-201.
21. Spetzler CS, von Holstein CASS. Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Science, 1975; 22:340-352.
22. von Winterfeldt D, Edwards W. Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY : Cambridge University Press, 1986.
23. Cooke RM. Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. New York and Oxford : Oxford University Press, 1991.
24. Soll, JB, Klayman J. Overconfidence in interval estimates. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2004; 30(2):299-314.
25. McNamee P, Celona J. Decision Analysis for the Professional. Menlo Park, CA : SmartOrg, 2001.
26. Morgan MG, Keith D. Subjective judgments by climate experts. Environmental Science & Technology, 1995; 29(10):468-476.
27. Arvai JL, Froschauer A. Good decisions, bad decisions: The interaction of process and outcome in evaluations of decision quality. Journal of Risk Research, 2010; 13(7):845-859.
28. Morgan MG, Pitelka L, Shevliakova E. Elicitation of expert judgments of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems. Climatic Change, 2001; 49:279-307.
29. Regan HM, Ben-Haim Y, Langford B, Wilson WG, Lundberg P, Andelman SJ, Burgman, MA. Robust decision-making under severe uncertainty for conservation management. Ecological Applications, 2005; 15(4):1471-1477.
30. Wright G, Ayton P. Judgmental Forecasting. Chichester, UK : John Wiley & Sons, 1987.
31. Stewart TR, Lusk CM. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 1994; 13(7):579-599.
32. Armstrong JS. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. MA : Kluwer, 2001.
33. Ogden AE, Innes J. Incorporating climate change adaptation considerations into forest management planning in the boreal forest. International Forestry Review, 2007; 9(3):713-733.
34. Keeney R, McDaniels T. A framework to guide thinking and analysis about climate change policies. Risk Analysis, 2001; 21(6):989-1000.
35. McDaniels T. Creating and using objectives for ecological risk assessment and management. Environmental Science and Policy, 2000; 3:299-304.
36. Keeney R, Gregory R. Selecting attributes to measure the achievement of objectives. Operations Research, 2005; 53(1):1-11.
37. Howard RA. Knowledge maps. Management Science, 1989; 35(8):903-922.
38. Ohlson DW, McKinnon GA, Hirsch KG. A structured decision-making approach to climate change adaptation in the forest sector. The Forestry Chronicle, 2005; 81:97-103.
39. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (cited as IPCC). IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, undated. Available at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm, Accessed on June 12, 2009.
40. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (cited as PCIC). Web-Based Tools. Available at: http://www.pacificclimate.org, Accessed on July 20, 2010.
41. Speirs-Bridge A, Fidler F, McBride M, Flander L, Cumming G, Burgman M. Reducing overconfidence in interval judgments of experts. Risk Analysis, 2010; 30:512-523.
42. Moss R, Schneider SH. Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting. Pp. 33-51 in Pachauri R, Taniguchi T, Tanaka K (eds). Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Geneva, Switzerland : World Meteorological Organisation, 2000.
43. Clemen R, Reilly T. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis. Pacific Grove, CA : Druxbury Press, 1996.
44. Kremsater L. "Ecosystem Resilience and Natural Resources Sector Policies and Practices" Resilience (is Brilliance), FORREX Annual General Meeting, Internet conference, June 30, 2011, summaries available at http://FORREX.org/resilienceisbrilliance/agenda, accessed August 20, 2011. Kamloops, BC : 2011.
45. Lempert R, Nakicenovic N, Sarewitz D, Schlesinger M. Characterizing climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers. Climatic Change, 2004; 65:1-9.
46. McDaniels T, Gregory R. Learning as an objective within a structured risk management decision process. Environmental Science and Technology, 2004; 38(7):1921-1926.