A model-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of low dispersal vertebrates to landscape fragmentation under environmental change

Ecological Complexity

Volumn 28, Issue , 2016, Pages 174-186

  Gonçalves, João ^a,b   Honrado, João P ^a,b   Vicente, Joana R ^a,b   Civantos, Emilio ^a,c  

^a CENTRO DE INVESTIGAÇÃO EM BIODIVERSIDADE E RECURSOS GENÉTICOS   (Portugal)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PORTO   (Portugal)

^c INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIÓN EN RECURSOS CINEGÉTICOS IREC CSIC UCLM JCCM   (Spain)

Author keywords

Amphibians; Climate change; Functional connectivity; Impact assessment; Land use change; Reptiles; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

EID: 84969135187     PISSN: 1476945X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2016.05.003     Document Type: Article

References (97)

1. Akçakaya, H.R., Mills, G., Doncaster, C.P., The role of metapopulations in conservation. Macdonald, D.W., Service, K., (eds.) Key Topics in Conservation Biology, 2007, Blackwell Publishing, 64–84.
2. Alagador, D., Triviño, M., Cerdeira, J.O., Brás, R., Cabeza, M., Araújo, M.B., Linking like with like: optimising connectivity between environmentally-similar habitats. Landsc. Ecol. 27 (2012), 291–301.
3. Andrews, K.M., Gibbons, J.W., Jochimsen, D.M., Ecological effects of roads on amphibians and reptiles: a literature review. Mitchell, J.C., Brown, R.E.J., Bartholomew, B., (eds.) Urban Herpetology, 2008, Society for the Study of Amphibians & Reptiles, Salt Lake City, UT, 121–143.
4. Angilletta, M.J. Jr., Niewiarowski, P.H., Navas, C.A., The evolution of thermal physiology in ectotherms. J. Therm. Biol. 27 (2002), 249–268.
5. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W., Pearson, R.G., Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. J. Biogeogr. 33 (2006), 1712–1728.
6. Baguette, M., Blanchet, S., Legrand, D., Stevens, V.M., Turlure, C., Individual dispersal, landscape connectivity and ecological networks. Biol. Rev. 88 (2013), 310–326.
7. Barbet-Massin, M., Thuiller, W., Jiguet, F., The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios. Glob. Change Biol. 18 (2012), 881–890.
8. Beier, P., Spencer, W., Baldwin, R.F., McRae, B.H., Toward best practices for developing regional connectivity maps. Conserv. Biol. 25 (2011), 879–892.
9. Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., Courchamp, F., Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol. Lett. 15 (2012), 365–377.
10. Bennett, A.F., Saunders, D.A., Habitat fragmentation and landscape change. Sodhi, N.S., Ehrlich, P.R., (eds.) Conservation Biology for All, 2010, Oxford University Press, New York, US, 88–106.
11. Blank, L., Blaustein, L., Using ecological niche modeling to predict the distributions of two endangered amphibian species in aquatic breeding sites. Hydrobiologia 693 (2012), 157–167.
12. Blaustein, A.R., Belden, L.K., Olson, D.H., Green, D.M., Root, T.L., Kiesecker, J.M., Amphibian breeding and climate change. Conserv. Biol. 15 (2001), 1804–1809.
13. Bocedi, G., Palmer, S.C.F., Pe'er, G., Heikkinen, R.K., Matsinos, Y.G., Watts, K., Travis, J.M.J., Freckleton, R., RangeShifter: a platform for modelling spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and species’ responses to environmental changes. Methods Ecol. Evol. 5 (2014), 388–396.
14. Boria, R.A., Olson, L.E., Goodman, S.M., Anderson, R.P., Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models. Ecol. Modell. 275 (2014), 73–77.
15. Brook, B.W., Sodhi, N.S., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 23 (2008), 453–460.
16. Buckley, L.B., Urban, M.C., Angilletta, M.J., Crozier, L.G., Rissler, L.J., Sears, M.W., Can mechanism inform species’ distribution models?. Ecol. Lett. 13 (2010), 1041–1054.
17. Buisson, L., Thuiller, W., Casajus, N., Lek, S., Grenouillet, G., Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution. Glob. Change Biol. 16 (2010), 1145–1157.
18. Carvalho, S.B., Brito, J.C., Crespo, E.J., Possingham, H.P., From climate change predictions to actions—conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale. Glob. Change Biol. 16 (2010), 3257–3270.
19. Carvalho, S.B., Gonçalves, J., Guisan, A., Honrado, J.P., Systematic site selection for multispecies monitoring networks. J. Appl. Ecol., 2015, n/a–n/a.
20. Ceia-Hasse, A., Sinervo, B., Vicente, L., Pereira, H.M., Integrating ecophysiological models into species distribution projections of European reptile range shifts in response to climate change. Ecography 37 (2014), 679–688.
21. Clark, P.J., Evans, F.C., Distance to nearest neighbor as a measure of spatial relationships in populations. Ecology 35 (1954), 445–453.
22. Cushman, S.A., McKelvey, K.S., Hayden, J., Schwartz, M.K., Gene flow in complex landscapes: testing multiple hypotheses with causal modeling. Am. Nat. 168 (2006), 486–499.
23. Chen, I.-C., Hill, J.K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D.B., Thomas, C.D., Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333 (2011), 1024–1026.
24. Decout, S., Manel, S., Miaud, C., Luque, S., Integrative approach for landscape-based graph connectivity analysis: a case study with the common frog (Rana temporaria) in human-dominated landscapes. Landsc. Ecol. 27 (2012), 267–279.
25. Dennis, R.L.H., Dapporto, L., Dover, J.W., Shreeve, T.G., Corridors and barriers in biodiversity conservation: a novel resource-based habitat perspective for butterflies. Biodivers. Conserv. 22 (2013), 2709–2734.
26. Devictor, V., Godet, L., Julliard, R., Couvet, D., Jiguet, F., Can common species benefit from protected areas?. Biol. Conserv. 139 (2007), 29–36.
27. Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, S., Grabherr, G., A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetation. J. Biogeogr. 30 (2003), 401–417.
28. Duellman, W.E., Trueb, L., Biology of Amphibians. 1986, McGraw Hill, New York.
29. EEA, CLC2006 Technical Guidelines. 2007, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 70.
30. Eickhout, B., Prins, A.G., Eururalis 2.0—Technical Background and Indicator Documentation. 2008, Wageningen UR and Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
31. Engler, R., Guisan, A., MigClim: predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate. Divers. Distrib. 15 (2009), 590–601.
32. Fahrig, L., Merriam, G., Conservation of fragmented populations. Conserv. Biol. 8 (1994), 50–59.
33. Fielding, A.H., Bell, J.F., A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ. Conserv. 24 (1997), 38–49.
34. Fitzpatrick, M.C., Hargrove, W.W., The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate. Biodivers. Conserv. 18 (2009), 2255–2261.
35. Gibbons, J.W., Scott, D.E., Ryan, T.J., Buhlmann, K.A., Tuberville, T.D., Metts, B.S., Greene, J.L., Mills, T., Leiden, Y., Poppy, S., Winne, C.T., The global decline of reptiles, Déjà Vu Amphibians. BioScience, 50, 2000, 653.
36. Gruber, S., Peckham, S., Land-surface parameters and objects in hydrology. Hengl, T., Reuter, H.I., (eds.) Geomorphometry: Concepts, Software, Applications—Developments in Soil Science, 2008, Elsevier.
37. Guisan, A., Tingley, R., Baumgartner, J.B., Naujokaitis-Lewis, I., Sutcliffe, P.R., Tulloch, A.I.T., Regan, T.J., Brotons, L., McDonald-Madden, E., Mantyka-Pringle, C., Martin, T.G., Rhodes, J.R., Maggini, R., Setterfield, S.A., Elith, J., Schwartz, M.W., Wintle, B.A., Broennimann, O., Austin, M., Ferrier, S., Kearney, M.R., Possingham, H.P., Buckley, Y.M., Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol. Lett. 16 (2013), 1424–1435.
38. Hamer, A.J., McDonnell, M.J., Amphibian ecology and conservation in the urbanising world: a review. Biol. Conserv. 141 (2008), 2432–2449.
39. Hanski, I., Metapopulation dynamics. Nature 396 (1998), 41–49.
40. Heller, N.E., Zavaleta, E.S., Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol. Conserv. 142 (2009), 14–32.
41. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G., Jarvis, A., Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces for Global Land areas. 2005, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1965–1978.
42. Hodgson, J.A., Moilanen, A., Wintle, B.A., Thomas, C.D., Habitat area, quality and connectivity: striking the balance for efficient conservation. J. Appl. Ecol. 48 (2011), 148–152.
43. Hodgson, J.A., Thomas, C.D., Wintle, B.A., Moilanen, A., Climate change, connectivity and conservation decision making: back to basics. J. Appl. Ecol. 46 (2009), 964–969.
44. IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014—Synthesis Report (Longer Report), Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, p. 116.
45. IUCN, 2014. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2014.3., Version 2014.3. ed.
46. Jacobson, B., Peres-Neto, P.R., Quantifying and disentangling dispersal in metacommunities: how close have we come? How far is there to go?. Landsc. Ecol. 25 (2010), 495–507.
47. Jarvis, A., Reuter, H.I., Nelson, A., Guevara, E., 2008. Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4, available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90 m Database. http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
48. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D.S., Dobson, A.P., Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol., 5, 2007, e157.
49. Jolliffe, I.T., Stephenson, D.B., Forecast Verification—A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. 1st ed., 2003, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, West Sussex, England.
50. Krosby, M., Tewksbury, J., Haddad, N.M., Hoekstra, J., Ecological connectivity for a changing climate. Conserv. Biol. 24 (2010), 1686–1689.
51. Lindenmayer, D.B., Likens, G.E., Adaptive monitoring: a new paradigm for long-term research and monitoring. Trends Ecol. Evol. 24 (2009), 482–486.
52. Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P., Pearson, R.G., Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 28 (2005), 385–393.
53. Lobo, J.M., Jiménez-Valverde, A., Real, R., AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 17 (2008), 145–151.
54. Lomolino, M.V., Riddle, B.R., Brown, J.H., Biogeography. 3rd ed., 2006, Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
55. Loureiro, A., Ferrand de Almeida, N., Carretero, M.A., Paulo, O.S., Atlas dos Anfíbios e Répteis de Portugal. 1st ed., 2008, Instituto da Conservação da Natureza, Lisboa.
56. Luoto, M., Virkkala, R., Heikkinen, R.K., The role of land cover in bioclimatic models depends on spatial resolution. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16 (2007), 34–42.
57. Luque, S., Saura, S., Fortin, M.-J., Landscape connectivity analysis for conservation: insights from combining new methods with ecological and genetic data. Landsc. Ecol. 27 (2012), 153–157.
58. Martin, Y., Van Dyck, H., Dendoncker, N., Titeux, N., Testing instead of assuming the importance of land use change scenarios to model species distributions under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22 (2013), 1204–1216.
59. Martins, I.S., Proença, V., Pereira, H.M., The unusual suspect: land use is a key predictor of biodiversity patterns in the Iberian Peninsula. Acta Oecol. 61 (2014), 41–50.
60. McLaughlin, J.F., Hellmann, J.J., Boggs, C.L., Ehrlich, P.R., Climate change hastens population extinctions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 99 (2002), 6070–6074.
61. McRae, B.H., Hall, S.A., Beier, P., Theobald, D.M., Where to restore ecological connectivity? Detecting barriers and quantifying restoration benefits. PLoS One, 7, 2012, e52604.
62. Minor, E.S., Urban, D.L., A graph-theory framework for evaluating landscape connectivity and conservation planning. Conserv. Biol. 22 (2008), 297–307.
63. Morales-Castilla, I., Olalla-Tárraga, M.Á., Bini, L.M., De Marco, P. Jr., Hawkins, B.A., Rodríguez, M.Á., Niche conservatism and species richness patterns of squamate reptiles in eastern and southern Africa. Austral Ecol. 36 (2011), 550–558.
64. Nunez, T.A., Lawler, J.J., McRae, B.H., Pierce, D.J., Krosby, M.B., Kavanagh, D.M., Singleton, P.H., Tewksbury, J.J., Connectivity planning to address climate change. Conserv. Biol. 27 (2013), 407–416.
65. Olalla-Tárraga, M.Á., McInnes, L., Bini, L.M., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Fritz, S.A., Hawkins, B.A., Hortal, J., Orme, C.D.L., Rahbek, C., Rodríguez, M.Á., Purvis, A., Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries: global congruence across mammals and amphibians. J. Biogeogr. 38 (2011), 2237–2247.
66. Pascual-Hortal, L., Saura, S., Integrating landscape connectivity in broad-scale forest planning through a new graph-based habitat availability methodology: application to capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in Catalonia (NE Spain). Eur. J. For. Res. 127 (2008), 23–31.
67. Pearson, R.G., Climate change and the migration capacity of species. Trends Ecol. Evol. 21 (2006), 111–113.
68. Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P., Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 12 (2003), 361–371.
69. Peterson, A.T., Ecological niche conservatism: a time-structured review of evidence. J. Biogeogr. 38 (2011), 817–827.
70. Pimm, S.L., Raven, P., Biodiversity: extinction by numbers. Nature 403 (2000), 843–845.
71. Pinto, N., Keitt, T., Beyond the least-cost path: evaluating corridor redundancy using a graph-theoretic approach. Landsc. Ecol. 24 (2009), 253–266.
72. Pinto, N., Keitt, T.H., Wainright, M., LORACS: JAVA software for modeling landscape connectivity and matrix permeability. Ecography 35 (2012), 388–392.
73. Pôças, I., Gonçalves, J., Marcos, B., Alonso, J., Castro, P., Honrado, J.P., Evaluating the fitness for use of spatial data sets to promote quality in ecological assessment and monitoring. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 28 (2014), 2356–2371.
74. Pullin, A.S., Sutherland, W., Gardner, T., Kapos, V., Fa, J.E., Conservation priorities: identifying need, taking action and evaluating success. Macdonald, D.W., Willis, K.J., (eds.) Key Topics in Conservation Biology, 1st ed., 2013, John Wiley & Sons, 3–22.
75. Quinn, P.F., Beven, K.J., Lamb, R., The ln(a/tan beta) index: how to calculate it and how to use it within the TOPMODEL framework. Hydrol. Processes, 9, 1995, 161182.
76. Ribeiro, R., Carretero, M., Sillero, N., Alarcos, G., Ortiz-Santaliestra, M., Lizana, M., Llorente, G., The pond network: can structural connectivity reflect on (amphibian) biodiversity patterns?. Landsc. Ecol. 26 (2011), 673–682.
77. Rudnick, D.A., Ryan, S.J., Beier, P., Cushman, S.A., Dieffenbach, F., Epps, C.W., Gerber, L.R., Hartter, J., Jenness, J.S., Kintsch, J., Merenlender, A.M., Perkl, R.M., Preziosi, D.V., Trombulak, S.C., The role of landscape connectivity in planning and implementing conservation and restoration priorities. Issues Ecol., 2010, 16.
78. Sala, O.E., Stuart Chapin, F., Armesto, J.J. III, Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., Huber-Sanwald, E., Huenneke, L.F., Jackson, R.B., Kinzig, A., Leemans, R., Lodge, D.M., Mooney, H.A., Oesterheld, M.N., Poff, N.L., Sykes, M.T., Walker, B.H., Walker, M., Wall, D.H., Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287 (2000), 1770–1774.
79. Schwartz, M.W., Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions. Biol. Conserv. 155 (2012), 149–156.
80. Sohl, T.L., The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous united states bird species from 2001 to 2075. PLoS One, 9, 2014, e112251.
81. Spear, S.F., Balkenhol, N., Fortin, M.-J., McRae, B.H., Scribner, K.I.M., Use of resistance surfaces for landscape genetic studies: considerations for parameterization and analysis. Mol. Ecol. 19 (2010), 3576–3591.
82. Taylor, P.D., Fahrig, L., Henein, K., Merriam, G., Connectivity is a vital element of landscape structure. Oikos 68 (1993), 571–573.
83. Taylor, P.D., Fahrig, L., With, K.A., Landscape connectivity: a return to the basics. Crooks, K.R., Sanjayan, M., (eds.) Connectivity Conservation, 2006, Cambridge University Press, New York, USA.
84. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Townsend Peterson, A., Phillips, O.L., Williams, S.E., Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427 (2004), 145–148.
85. Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R., Araújo, M.B., BIOMOD—a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32 (2009), 369–373.
86. Thuiller, W., Lavergne, S., Roquet, C., Boulangeat, I., Lafourcade, B., Araujo, M.B., Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe. Nature 470 (2011), 531–534.
87. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T., Prentice, I.C., Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 102 (2005), 8245–8250.
88. Tingley, R., Herman, T.B., Land-cover data improve bioclimatic models for anurans and turtles at a regional scale. J. Biogeogr. 36 (2009), 1656–1672.
89. Trimble, M.J., van Aarde, R.J., Amphibian and reptile communities and functional groups over a land-use gradient in a coastal tropical forest landscape of high richness and endemicity. Anim. Conserv. 17 (2014), 441–453.
90. Verburg, P., Overmars, K., Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landsc. Ecol. 24 (2009), 1167–1181.
91. Vicente, J.R., Alagador, D., Guerra, C., Alonso, J.M., Kueffer, C., Vaz, A.S., Fernandes, R.F., Cabral, J.A., Araújo, M.B., Honrado, J.P., Cost-effective monitoring of biological invasions under global change: a model-based framework. J. Appl. Ecol., 2016, n/a–n/a.
92. Vicente, J.R., Gonçalves, J., Honrado, J.P., Randin, C.F., Pottier, J., Broennimann, O., Lomba, A., Guisan, A., A framework for assessing the scale of influence of environmental factors on ecological patterns. Ecol. Complex. 20 (2014), 151–156.
93. Wanger, T.C., Iskandar, D.T., Motzke, I., Brook, B.W., Sodhi, N.S., Clough, Y., Tscharntke, T., Effects of land-use change on community composition of tropical amphibians and reptiles in Sulawesi Indonesia Efectos del Cambio de Uso de Suelo sobre la Composición de la Comunidad de Anfibios y Reptiles en Sulawesi, Indonesia. Conserv. Biol. 24 (2010), 795–802.
94. Watts, K., Eycott, A., Handley, P., Ray, D., Humphrey, J., Quine, C., Targeting and evaluating biodiversity conservation action within fragmented landscapes: an approach based on generic focal species and least-cost networks. Landsc. Ecol. 25 (2010), 1305–1318.
95. Wiens, J.A., Stralberg, D., Jongsomjit, D., Howell, C.A., Snyder, M.A., Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 106:Suppl. 2 (2009), 19729–19736.
96. Wiens, J.J., Graham, C.H., Niche conservatism: integrating evolution, ecology, and conservation biology. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 36 (2005), 519–539.
97. Williams, S.E., Shoo, L.P., Isaac, J.L., Hoffmann, A.A., Langham, G., Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biol., 6, 2008, e325.