Regional variation in climate change winners and losers highlights the rapid loss of cold-dwelling species

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2016, Pages 468-480

  Tayleur, Catherine M ^a,b   Devictor, Vincent ^c   Gaüzère, Pierre ^c   Jonzén, Niclas ^a   Smith, Henrik G ^a   Lindström, Åke ^a  

^a LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIV MONTPELLIER   (France)

Author keywords

Avian ecology; Climate change; Community temperature index; Macroecology

Indexed keywords

AVIFAUNA; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; COMMUNITY COMPOSITION; HABITAT CORRIDOR; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; MACROECOLOGY; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; RANGE EXPANSION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

SWEDEN;

AVES;

EID: 84960117549     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12412     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Anon (2013) Yearbook of agriculture statistics 2013. Statistics Sweden, Örebro.
2. Banks-Leite, C., Pardini, R., Boscolo, D., Cassano, C.R., Püttker, T., Barros, C.S. & Barlow, J. (2014) Assessing the utility of statistical adjustments for imperfect detection in tropical conservation science. Journal of Applied Ecology, 51, 849-859.
3. Barbet-Massin, M., Thuiller, W. & Jiguet, F. (2012) The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios. Global Change Biology, 18, 881-890.
4. Barnagaud, J.-Y., Devictor, V., Jiguet, F., Barbet-Massin, M., Le Viol, I. & Archaux, F. (2012) Relating habitat and climatic niches in birds. PLoS ONE, 7, e32819.
5. Barnagaud, J.-Y., Barbaro, L., Hampe, A., Jiguet, F. & Archaux, F. (2013) Species' thermal preferences affect forest bird communities along landscape and local scale habitat gradients. Ecography, 36, 1218-1226.
6. Bart, J., Collins, B. & Morrison, R.I.G. (2010) Estimating trends with a linear model: reply to sauer et al. The Condor, 106, 440-443.
7. Bertrand, R., Lenoir, J., Piedallu, C., Riofrío-Dillon, G., de Ruffray, P., Vidal, C., Pierrat, J.-C. & Gégout, J.-C. (2011) Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature, 479, 517-520.
8. Britton, A.J., Beale, C.M., Towers, W. & Hewison, R.L. (2009) Biodiversity gains and losses: evidence for homogenisation of Scottish alpine vegetation. Biological Conservation, 142, 1728-1739.
9. Calosi, P., Bilton, D.T. & Spicer, J.I. (2008) Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change. Biology Letters, 4, 99-102.
10. Clavero, M., Villero, D. & Brotons, L. (2011) Climate change or land use dynamics: do we know what climate change indicators indicate? PLoS ONE, 6, 1-8.
11. Davey, C.M., Chamberlain, D.E., Newson, S.E., Noble, D.G. & Johnston, A. (2012) Rise of the generalists: evidence for climate driven homogenization in avian communities. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 568-578.
12. Davey, C.M., Devictor, V., Jonzén, N., Lindström, Å. & Smith, H.G. (2013) Impact of climate change on communities: revealing species' contribution. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 551-561.
13. De Frenne, P., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Coomes, D.A. et al. (2013) Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 110, 18561-18565.
14. De Magalhaes, J.P. & Costa, J. (2009) A database of vertebrate longevity records and their relation to other life-history traits. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 22, 1770-1774.
15. Devictor, V., Julliard, R., Couvet, D. & Jiguet, F. (2008) Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275, 2743-2748.
16. Devictor, V., van Swaay, C., Brereton, T. et al. (2012) Uncertainty in thermal tolerances and climatic debt. Nature Climate Change, 2, 638-639.
17. Dormann, C.F., McPherson, J.M., Araújo, M., Bivand, R., Bolliger, J., Carl, G., Davies, R.G., Hirzel, A., Jetz, W., Daniel Kissling, W., Kühn, I., Ohlemüller, R., Peres-Neto, P., Reineking, B., Schröder, B., Schurr, F.M. & Wilson, R. (2007) Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. Ecography, 30, 609-628.
18. EEA (2007) CLC2006 technical guidelines. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
19. Fisher, J.A.D., Frank, K.T. & Leggett, W.C. (2010) Dynamic macroecology on ecological time-scales. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 1-15.
20. Gaston, K.J. (2000) Global patterns in biodiversity. Nature, 405, 220-227.
21. Gaüzère, P., Jiguet, F. & Devictor, V. (2015) Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences. Global Change Biology, 21, 3367-3378.
22. Godet, L., Gaüzere, P., Jiguet, F. & Devictor, V. (2015) Dissociating several forms of commonness in birds sheds new light on biotic homogenization. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 416-426.
23. Gregory, R.D., Willis, S.G., Jiguet, F., Vorísek, P., Klvanová, A., van Strien, A., Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Couvet, D. & Green, R.E. (2009) An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE, 4, e4678.
24. Hagemeijer, W.J.M. & Blair, M. (1997) The EBCC atlas of European breeding birds: their distribution and abundance. T & A D Poyser, London.
25. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
26. Huntley, B., Green, R.E., Collingham, Y.C. & Willis, S.G. (2007) A climatic atlas of European breeding birds. Lynx Edicions, Barcelona.
27. Jiguet, F., Devictor, V., Ottvall, R., Van Turnhout, C., Van der Jeugd, H. & Lindström, Å. (2010) Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 277, 3601-3608.
28. Kampichler, C., van Turnhout, C.A.M., Devictor, V. & van der Jeugd, H.P. (2012) Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals. PLoS ONE, 7, e35272.
29. Kellner, K.F. & Swihart, R.K. (2014) Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a quantitative review. PLoS ONE, 9, e111436.
30. Kissling, W.D., Field, R., Korntheuer, H., Heyder, U. & Böhning-Gaese, K. (2010) Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2035-2045.
31. Laaksonen, T. & Lehikoinen, A. (2013) Population trends in boreal birds: continuing declines in agricultural, northern, and long-distance migrant species. Biological Conservation, 168, 99-107.
32. La Sorte, F.A., Lee, T.M., Wilman, H. & Jetz, W. (2009) Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 276, 3167-3174.
33. Lehikoinen, A., Green, M., Husby, M., Kålås, J.A. & Lindström, Å. (2014) Common montane birds are declining in northern Europe. Journal of Avian Biology, 45, 3-14.
34. Lemoine, N., Schaefer, H.C. & Bohning-Gaese, K. (2007) Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 55-64.
35. Lennon, J.J., Koleff, P., Greenwood, J.J.D. & Gaston, K.J. (2004) Contribution of rarity and commonness to patterns of species richness. Ecology Letters, 7, 81-87.
36. Lennon, J.J., Beale, C.M., Reid, C.L., Kent, M. & Pakeman, R.J. (2011) Are richness patterns of common and rare species equally well explained by environmental variables? Ecography, 34, 529-539.
37. Lindström, Å., Svensson, S., Green, M. & Ottvall, R. (2007) Distribution and population changes of two subspecies of Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita in Sweden. Ornis Svecica, 17, 137-147.
38. Lindström, Å. & Green, M. (2013) Monitoring population changes of birds in Sweden. Annual report for 2012. Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund.
39. Lindström, Å., Green, M., Paulson, G., Smith, H.G. & Devictor, V. (2013) Rapid changes in bird community composition at multiple temporal and spatial scales in response to recent climate change. Ecography, 36, 313-322.
40. Menéndez, R., Megías, A.G., Hill, J.K., Braschler, B., Willis, S.G., Collingham, Y., Fox, R., Roy, D.B. & Thomas, C.D. (2006) Species richness changes lag behind climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 273, 1465-1470.
41. Mokany, K., Harwood, T.D., Williams, K.J. & Ferrier, S. (2012) Dynamic macroecology and the future for biodiversity. Global Change Biology, 18, 3149-3159.
42. Monnet, A.-C., Jiguet, F., Meynard, C.N., Mouillot, D., Mouquet, N., Thuiller, W. & Devictor, V. (2014) Asynchrony of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity in birds. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 780-788.
43. Ockendon, N., Baker, D.J., Carr, J.A., White, E.C., Almond, R.E.A., Amano, T., Bertram, E., Bradbury, R.B., Bradley, C., Butchart, S.H.M., Doswald, N., Foden, W., Gill, D.J.C., Green, R.E., Sutherland, W.J., Tanner, E.V.J. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. (2014) Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects. Global Change Biology, 20, 2221-2229.
44. Orme, D. (2012) The caper package: comparative analysis of phylogenetics and evolution in R. 1-36.
45. Ottosson, U., Ottvall, R., Elmberg, J., Green, M., Gustafsson, T., Haas, F., Holmqvist, N., Lindström, Å., Nilsson, L., Svensson, M., Svensson, S. & Tjernberg, M. (2012) Fåglarna i Sverige - antal och förekomst. SOF, Halmstad.
46. Ottvall, R., Edenius, L., Elmberg, J., Engström, H., Green, M., Holmqvist, N., Lindström, Å., Pärt, T. & Tjernberg, M. (2009) Population trends for Swedish breeding birds. Ornis Svecica, 19, 117-192.
47. Pinheiro, J. & Bates, D. (2000) Mixed-effects models in S and S-PLUS. Springer Verlag, New York.
48. Princé, K. & Zuckerberg, B. (2014) Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities. Global Change Biology, 21, 572-585.
49. R Development Core Team (2011) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
50. Roquet, C. (2014) One tree to link them all : a phylogenetic dataset for the European tetrapoda. PLOS Currents Tree of Life. Edition 1. 1-21.
51. Roth, T., Plattner, M. & Amrhein, V. (2014) Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude. PLoS ONE, 9, e82490.
52. Sæther, B.E., Sutherland, W.J. & Engen, S. (2004) Climate influences on avian population dynamics. Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185-209.
53. Stjernman, M., Green, M., Lindström, Å., Olsson, O., Ottvall, R. & Smith, H.G. (2013) Habitat-specific bird trends and their effect on the Farmland Bird Index. Ecological Indicators, 24, 382-391.
54. Svenning, J.C., Normand, S. & Skov, F. (2008) Postglacial dispersal limitation of widespread forest plant species in nemoral Europe. Ecography, 31, 316-326.
55. Tayleur, C., Caplat, P., Massimino, D., Johnston, A., Jonzén, N., Smith, H.G. & Lindström, Å. (2015) Swedish birds are tracking temperature but not rainfall: evidence from a decade of abundance changes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 859-872.
56. Thomas, C.D. (2010) Climate, climate change and range boundaries. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 488-495.
57. Thomas, C.D., Franco, A.M.A. & Hill, J.K. (2006) Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21, 415-416.
58. Virkkala, R. & Lehikoinen, A. (2014) Patterns of climate-induced density shifts of species: poleward shifts faster in northern boreal birds than in southern birds. Global Change Biology, 20, 1-9.
59. Williams, B., Nichols, J. & Conroy, M. (2002) Analysis and management of animal populations. modeling, estimation, and decision making. Academic Press, San Diego.
60. Wood, S. (2006) Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. CRC Press, Boca Raton.
61. Zisenis, M. (2010) 10 messages for 2010 climate change and biodiversity. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.