메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 70, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 1-19

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

Author keywords

Bayesian demography; Bayesian statistics; demographic methodology; population estimates and forecasts; statistical methods

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; DEMOGRAPHIC METHOD; DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING METHOD; POPULATION ESTIMATION;

EID: 84959062190     PISSN: 00324728     EISSN: 14774747     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1122826     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (55)

References (131)
  • 1
    • 84886751595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models
    • G.J.Abel, Guy J., J.BijakJakub, A.M.FindlayAllan M., D.McCollumDavid, and A.WiśniowskiArkadiusz. 2013a. Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models, Population and Environment 35(2): 183–203. doi: 10.1007/s11111-013-0186-8
    • (2013) Population and Environment , vol.35 , Issue.2 , pp. 183-203
    • Abel, G.J.1    Bijak, J.2    Findlay, A.M.3    McCollum, D.4    Wiśniowski, A.5
  • 2
    • 84920507077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: an illustration using a simple projection model
    • G.J.Abel, Guy J., J.BijakJakub, J.J.ForsterJonathan J., J.RaymerJames, P.W.F.SmithPeter W. F., and J.S.T.WongJackie S. T. 2013b. Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: an illustration using a simple projection model, Demographic Research 29(43): 1187–1226. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.43
    • (2013) Demographic Research , vol.29 , Issue.43 , pp. 1187-1226
    • Abel, G.J.1    Bijak, J.2    Forster, J.J.3    Raymer, J.4    Smith, P.W.F.5    Wong, J.S.T.6
  • 3
    • 84961394348 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On Probabilistic Forecasts of Population and Their Uses. Paper for the 52nd Session of the International Statistical Institute, Helsinki, 10–18 August
    • J.Alho, Juha. 1999. On Probabilistic Forecasts of Population and Their Uses. Paper for the 52nd Session of the International Statistical Institute, Helsinki, 10–18 August.
    • (1999)
    • Alho, J.1
  • 7
    • 40549115014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding
    • L.Alkema, Leontine, A.E.RafteryAdrian E., and S.J.ClarkSamuel J. 2007. Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding, Annals of Applied Statistics 1(1): 229–248. doi: 10.1214/07-AOAS111
    • (2007) Annals of Applied Statistics , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 229-248
    • Alkema, L.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Clark, S.J.3
  • 8
    • 49149126475 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainties in national HIV prevalence estimates
    • L.Alkema, Leontine, A.E.RafteryAdrian E., and T.BrownTim. 2009. Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainties in national HIV prevalence estimates, Sexually Transmitted Infections 84(Suppl. I): i11–i16.
    • (2009) Sexually Transmitted Infections , vol.84 , pp. i11-i16
    • Alkema, L.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Brown, T.3
  • 9
    • 79960486695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries
    • L.Alkema, Leontine, A.E.RafteryAdrian E., P.GerlandPatrick, S.J.ClarkSamuel J., F.PelletierFrançois, T.BuettnerThomas, and G.K.HeiligGerhard K. 2011. Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries, Demography 48(3): 815–839. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5
    • (2011) Demography , vol.48 , Issue.3 , pp. 815-839
    • Alkema, L.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Gerland, P.3    Clark, S.J.4    Pelletier, F.5    Buettner, T.6    Heilig, G.K.7
  • 10
    • 84944515910 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration
    • J.J.Azose, Jonathan J. and A.E.RafteryAdrian E. 2015. Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration, Demography 52(5): 1627–1650.
    • (2015) Demography , vol.52 , Issue.5 , pp. 1627-1650
    • Azose, J.J.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 11
    • 0001185873 scopus 로고
    • An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances
    • Available: (accessed: 20 August 2014)
    • T.Bayes, Thomas. 1763. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53: 370–418. Available: https://archive.org/details/philtrans09948070 (accessed: 20 August 2014). doi: 10.1098/rstl.1763.0053
    • (1763) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London , vol.53 , pp. 370-418
    • Bayes, T.1
  • 12
    • 0027726624 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of population evolution
    • J.M.Bernardo, José M. and J.MuñozJavier. 1993. Bayesian analysis of population evolution, The Statistician 42(4): 541–550. doi: 10.2307/2348678
    • (1993) The Statistician , vol.42 , Issue.4 , pp. 541-550
    • Bernardo, J.M.1    Muñoz, J.2
  • 13
    • 84981748011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Chichester: Wiley
    • J.M.Bernardo, José M. and A.F.M.SmithAdrian F. M. 2000. Bayesian Theory. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. Chichester: Wiley.
    • (2000) Bayesian Theory
    • Bernardo, J.M.1    Smith, A.F.M.2
  • 15
    • 84859927278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, Dordrecht: Springer
    • J.Bijak, Jakub. 2010. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. Vol. 24. Dordrecht: Springer.
    • (2010) Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View , vol.24
    • Bijak, J.1
  • 16
    • 77956802446 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge
    • J.Bijak, Jakub and A.WiśniowskiArkadiusz. 2010. Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 173(4): 775–796. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00635.x
    • (2010) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) , vol.173 , Issue.4 , pp. 775-796
    • Bijak, J.1    Wiśniowski, A.2
  • 17
    • 84995484895 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reforging the wedding ring: exploring a semi-artificial model of population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian process emulators
    • J.Bijak, Jakub, J.HiltonJason, E.SilvermanEric, and V.D.CaoViet Dung. 2013. Reforging the wedding ring: exploring a semi-artificial model of population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian process emulators, Demographic Research 29(27): 729–766. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.27
    • (2013) Demographic Research , vol.29 , Issue.27 , pp. 729-766
    • Bijak, J.1    Hilton, J.2    Silverman, E.3    Cao, V.D.4
  • 18
    • 84897933040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying paradigm change in demography
    • J.Bijak, Jakub, D.CourgeauDaniel, E.SilvermanEric, and R.FranckRobert. 2014. Quantifying paradigm change in demography, Demographic Research 30(32): 911–924. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.32
    • (2014) Demographic Research , vol.30 , Issue.32 , pp. 911-924
    • Bijak, J.1    Courgeau, D.2    Silverman, E.3    Franck, R.4
  • 21
    • 84910131442 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm
    • F.C.Billari, Francesco C., R.GrazianiRebecca, and E.MelilliEugenio. 2014. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm, Demography 51(5): 1933–1954. doi: 10.1007/s13524-014-0318-5
    • (2014) Demography , vol.51 , Issue.5 , pp. 1933-1954
    • Billari, F.C.1    Graziani, R.2    Melilli, E.3
  • 22
    • 33745967698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review
    • H.Booth, Heather. 2006. Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review, International Journal of Forecasting 22(3): 547–581. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.04.001
    • (2006) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 547-581
    • Booth, H.1
  • 23
    • 84961402403 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series, Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC
    • L.D.Broemeling, Lyle D. 2013. Bayesian Methods in Epidemiology. Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC.
    • (2013) Bayesian Methods in Epidemiology
    • Broemeling, L.D.1
  • 24
    • 33748154195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries
    • H.Brücker, Herbert and B.SiliverstovsBoriss. 2006. On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries, Empirical Economics 31(3): 735–754. doi: 10.1007/s00181-005-0049-y
    • (2006) Empirical Economics , vol.31 , Issue.3 , pp. 735-754
    • Brücker, H.1    Siliverstovs, B.2
  • 25
    • 84884693109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian demographic accounts: subnational population estimation using multiple data sources
    • J.R.Bryant, John R. and P.J.GrahamPatrick J. 2013. Bayesian demographic accounts: subnational population estimation using multiple data sources, Bayesian Analysis 8(3): 591–622. doi: 10.1214/13-BA820
    • (2013) Bayesian Analysis , vol.8 , Issue.3 , pp. 591-622
    • Bryant, J.R.1    Graham, P.J.2
  • 26
    • 0007230853 scopus 로고
    • A simple Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian graduation
    • B.P.Carlin, Bradley P. 1992. A simple Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian graduation, Transactions of the Society of Actuaries 44: 55–76.
    • (1992) Transactions of the Society of Actuaries , vol.44 , pp. 55-76
    • Carlin, B.P.1
  • 28
    • 79952321967 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Models for prediction, explanation and control: recursive Bayesian networks
    • L.Casini, Lorenzo, P.M.IllariPhyllis McKay, F.RussoFederica, and J.WilliamsonJon. 2011. Models for prediction, explanation and control: recursive Bayesian networks, Theoria 26(1)70: 5–33.
    • (2011) Theoria , vol.70 , pp. 5-33
    • Casini, L.1    Illari, P.M.2    Russo, F.3    Williamson, J.4
  • 29
    • 77958191399 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating age without measuring it: a new method in paleodemography
    • H.Caussinus, Henri and D.CourgeauDaniel. 2010. Estimating age without measuring it: a new method in paleodemography, Population–E 65(1): 117–144. doi: 10.3917/pope.1001.0117
    • (2010) Population–E , vol.65 , Issue.1 , pp. 117-144
    • Caussinus, H.1    Courgeau, D.2
  • 30
    • 0042722200 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and variability in demography and population growth: a hierarchical approach
    • J.S.Clark, James S. 2003. Uncertainty and variability in demography and population growth: a hierarchical approach, Ecology 84(6): 1370–1381. doi: 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[1370:UAVIDA]2.0.CO;2
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , Issue.6 , pp. 1370-1381
    • Clark, J.S.1
  • 31
    • 84961407091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimates of age-specific reductions in HIV prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian melding estimation and probabilistic population forecast with an HIV-enabled cohort component projection model
    • S.J.Clark, Samuel J., J.ThomasJason, and L.BaoLe. 2012. Estimates of age-specific reductions in HIV prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian melding estimation and probabilistic population forecast with an HIV-enabled cohort component projection model, Demographic Research 27(26): 743–774. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.27.26
    • (2012) Demographic Research , vol.27 , Issue.26 , pp. 743-774
    • Clark, S.J.1    Thomas, J.2    Bao, L.3
  • 32
    • 0033845603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian approach to prediction using the gravity model, with an application to patient flow modelling
    • P.Congdon, Peter. 2000. A Bayesian approach to prediction using the gravity model, with an application to patient flow modelling, Geographical Analysis 32(3): 205–224. doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4632.2000.tb00425.x
    • (2000) Geographical Analysis , vol.32 , Issue.3 , pp. 205-224
    • Congdon, P.1
  • 36
    • 21244478558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear mortality projections
    • C.Czado, Claudia, A.DelwardeAntoine, and M.DenuitMichel. 2005. Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear mortality projections, Insurance: Mathematics & Economics 36(3): 260–284.
    • (2005) Insurance: Mathematics & Economics , vol.36 , Issue.3 , pp. 260-284
    • Czado, C.1    Delwarde, A.2    Denuit, M.3
  • 37
    • 0031313271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977–1990
    • B.O.Daponte, Beth O., J.B.KadaneJoseph B., and L.J.WolfsonLara J. 1997. Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977–1990, Journal of the American Statistical Association 92(440): 1256–1267.
    • (1997) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.92 , Issue.440 , pp. 1256-1267
    • Daponte, B.O.1    Kadane, J.B.2    Wolfson, L.J.3
  • 38
    • 0000582742 scopus 로고
    • Present position and potential developments: some personal views: statistical theory: the prequential approach
    • A.P.Dawid, 1984. Present position and potential developments: some personal views: statistical theory: the prequential approach, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 147(2): 278–292. doi: 10.2307/2981683
    • (1984) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) , vol.147 , Issue.2 , pp. 278-292
    • Dawid, A.P.1
  • 39
    • 0003759417 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wiley Classics Library, New York: John Wiley and Sons
    • M.H.DeGroot, Morris H. (1970) 2004. Optimal Statistical Decisions. Wiley Classics Library. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
    • (2004) Optimal Statistical Decisions
    • DeGroot, M.H.1
  • 40
    • 0041696122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On Bayesian model and variable selection using MCMC
    • P.Dellaportas, Petros, J.J.ForsterJonathan J., and I.NtzoufrasIoannis. 2002. On Bayesian model and variable selection using MCMC, Statistics and Computing 12(1): 27–36. doi: 10.1023/A:1013164120801
    • (2002) Statistics and Computing , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 27-36
    • Dellaportas, P.1    Forster, J.J.2    Ntzoufras, I.3
  • 41
    • 65649134726 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geographical mortality patterns in Italy: a Bayesian analysis
    • F.Divino, Fabio, V.EgidiViviana, and M.A.SalvatoreMichele Antonio. 2009. Geographical mortality patterns in Italy: a Bayesian analysis, Demographic Research 20(18): 435–466. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.20.18
    • (2009) Demographic Research , vol.20 , Issue.18 , pp. 435-466
    • Divino, F.1    Egidi, V.2    Salvatore, M.A.3
  • 42
    • 0037363321 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility
    • D.B.Dunson, David B. and B.ColomboBernardo. 2003. Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility, Journal of the American Statistical Association 98(461): 28–37. doi: 10.1198/016214503388619067
    • (2003) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.98 , Issue.461 , pp. 28-37
    • Dunson, D.B.1    Colombo, B.2
  • 43
    • 0034017886 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling human fertility in the presence of measurement error
    • D.B.Dunson, David B. and C.R.WeinbergClarice R. 2000. Modeling human fertility in the presence of measurement error, Biometrics 56(1): 288–292. doi: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.00288.x
    • (2000) Biometrics , vol.56 , Issue.1 , pp. 288-292
    • Dunson, D.B.1    Weinberg, C.R.2
  • 44
    • 0036114369 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes with age in the level and duration of fertility in the menstrual cycle
    • D.B.Dunson, David B., B.ColomboBernardo, and D.D.BairdDonna D. 2002. Changes with age in the level and duration of fertility in the menstrual cycle, Human Reproduction 17(5): 1399–1403. doi: 10.1093/humrep/17.5.1399
    • (2002) Human Reproduction , vol.17 , Issue.5 , pp. 1399-1403
    • Dunson, D.B.1    Colombo, B.2    Baird, D.D.3
  • 45
    • 1342343939 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of methodologies for small area life expectancy estimation
    • D.Eayres, Daniel and E.S.Williams. 2004. Evaluation of methodologies for small area life expectancy estimation, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 58(3): 243–249. doi: 10.1136/jech.2003.009654
    • (2004) Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health , vol.58 , Issue.3 , pp. 243-249
    • Eayres, D.1    Williams, E.S.2
  • 46
    • 83055193542 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian models and methods in public policy and government settings
    • S.E.Fienberg, Stephen E. 2011. Bayesian models and methods in public policy and government settings, Statistical Science 26(2): 212–226. doi: 10.1214/10-STS331
    • (2011) Statistical Science , vol.26 , Issue.2 , pp. 212-226
    • Fienberg, S.E.1
  • 47
    • 84889659728 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cohort analysis’ unholy quest: a discussion
    • S.E.Fienberg, Stephen E. 2013. Cohort analysis’ unholy quest: a discussion, Demography 50(6): 1981–1984. doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0251-z
    • (2013) Demography , vol.50 , Issue.6 , pp. 1981-1984
    • Fienberg, S.E.1
  • 48
    • 84884170626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria
    • E.Gayawan, Ezra and S.B.AdebayoSamson B. 2013. A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria, Demographic Research 28(45): 1339–1372. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.45
    • (2013) Demographic Research , vol.28 , Issue.45 , pp. 1339-1372
    • Gayawan, E.1    Adebayo, S.B.2
  • 49
    • 84950453304 scopus 로고
    • Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities
    • A.E.Gelfand, Alan E. and A.F.M.SmithAdrian F. M. 1990. Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities, Journal of the American Statistical Association 85: 398–409. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1990.10476213
    • (1990) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.85 , pp. 398-409
    • Gelfand, A.E.1    Smith, A.F.M.2
  • 52
    • 0021518209 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions, and the Bayesian restoration of images
    • S.Geman, Stuart and D.GemanDonald. 1984. Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions, and the Bayesian restoration of images, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence PAMI-6(6): 721–741. doi: 10.1109/TPAMI.1984.4767596
    • (1984) IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence , vol.PAMI-6 , Issue.6 , pp. 721-741
    • Geman, S.1    Geman, D.2
  • 55
    • 85195959853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
    • F.Girosi, Federico and G.KingGary. 2008. Demographic Forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
    • (2008) Demographic Forecasting
    • Girosi, F.1    King, G.2
  • 56
    • 33947274775 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
    • T.Gneiting, Tilmann and A.E.RafteryAdrian E. 2007. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102(477): 359–378. doi: 10.1198/016214506000001437
    • (2007) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.102 , Issue.477 , pp. 359-378
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 57
    • 0033504398 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration
    • S.Gorbey, Susi, D.JamesDoug, and J.PootJacques. 1999. Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration, International Regional Science Review 22(1): 69–101. doi: 10.1177/016001799761012208
    • (1999) International Regional Science Review , vol.22 , Issue.1 , pp. 69-101
    • Gorbey, S.1    James, D.2    Poot, J.3
  • 58
    • 77949711593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Austronesian language phylogenies: myths and misconceptions about Bayesian computational methods
    • Adelaar A., Pawley A., (eds), Canberra: Pacific Linguistics
    • S.J.Greenhill, Simon J. and R.D.GrayRussell D. 2009. Austronesian language phylogenies: myths and misconceptions about Bayesian computational methods, in A.AdelaarAlexander and A.PawleyAndrew (eds.), Austronesian Historical Linguistics and Culture History: A Festschrift for Robert Blust. Canberra: Pacific Linguistics, pp. 1–23.
    • (2009) Austronesian Historical Linguistics and Culture History: A Festschrift for Robert Blust , pp. 1-23
    • Greenhill, S.J.1    Gray, R.D.2
  • 61
    • 84961402803 scopus 로고
    • [Calculations Concerning the Population of Finland, Its Renewal and Future Development]. Tilastollisia tiedonantoja 38, Helsinki: Statistics Finland
    • J.Hyppölä, Jorma, A.TunkeloAarre, and L.TörnqvistLeo (eds.). 1949. Suomen väestöä, sen uusiutumista ja tulevaa kehitystä koskevia laskelmia [Calculations Concerning the Population of Finland, Its Renewal and Future Development]. Tilastollisia tiedonantoja 38. Helsinki: Statistics Finland.
    • (1949) Suomen väestöä, sen uusiutumista ja tulevaa kehitystä koskevia laskelmia
    • Hyppölä, J.1    Tunkelo, A.2    Törnqvist, L.3
  • 63
    • 84897953643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian analysis of the spatial concentration of individual wealth in the US North during the nineteenth century
    • A.Kasakoff, Alice, A.LawsonAndrew, and E.Van MeterEmily. 2014. A Bayesian analysis of the spatial concentration of individual wealth in the US North during the nineteenth century, Demographic Research 30(36): 1035–1074. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.36
    • (2014) Demographic Research , vol.30 , Issue.36 , pp. 1035-1074
    • Kasakoff, A.1    Lawson, A.2    Van Meter, E.3
  • 65
    • 41149152419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate over the past 25 years
    • N.Keilman, Nico. 2008. European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate over the past 25 years, Population and Development Review 34(1): 137–153. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00209.x
    • (2008) Population and Development Review , vol.34 , Issue.1 , pp. 137-153
    • Keilman, N.1
  • 67
    • 0019697606 scopus 로고
    • The limits of population forecasting
    • N.Keyfitz, Nathan. 1981. The limits of population forecasting, Population and Development Review 7(4): 579–593. doi: 10.2307/1972799
    • (1981) Population and Development Review , vol.7 , Issue.4 , pp. 579-593
    • Keyfitz, N.1
  • 70
    • 0007280584 scopus 로고
    • Mémoire sur les probabilités, Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences de Paris
    • Available: (accessed: 20 August 2014)
    • P.-S.D.Laplace, Pierre-Simon de. 1781. Mémoire sur les probabilités, Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences de Paris, Année 1778: 227–332. Available: http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k77597p/f386 (accessed: 20 August 2014).
    • (1781) Année , vol.1778 , pp. 227-332
    • Laplace, P.-S.D.1
  • 71
    • 33745954507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years
    • M.Lawrence, Michael, P.GoodwinPaul, M.O'ConnorMarcus, and D.ÖnkalDilek. 2006. Judgmental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years, International Journal of Forecasting 22(3): 493–518. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.007
    • (2006) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 493-518
    • Lawrence, M.1    Goodwin, P.2    O'Connor, M.3    Önkal, D.4
  • 72
    • 84950457501 scopus 로고
    • Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. mortality
    • R.D.Lee, Ronald D. and L.R.CarterLawrence R. 1992. Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419): 659–671.
    • (1992) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.87 , Issue.419 , pp. 659-671
    • Lee, R.D.1    Carter, L.R.2
  • 73
    • 84897585699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data
    • J.Li, Jackie. 2014. An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data, Demographic Research 30(1): 1–48. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.1
    • (2014) Demographic Research , vol.30 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-48
    • Li, J.1
  • 74
    • 0004075036 scopus 로고
    • Philadelphia, PA: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
    • D.V.Lindley, Dennis V. 1972. Bayesian Statistics: A Review. Philadelphia, PA: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
    • (1972) Bayesian Statistics: A Review
    • Lindley, D.V.1
  • 75
    • 84936479704 scopus 로고
    • Is our view of Bayesian statistics too narrow? (with discussion)
    • Bernardo J.M., Berger J.O., Dawid A.P., Smith A.F.M., (eds), Oxford: Oxford University Press
    • D.V.Lindley, Dennis V. 1992. Is our view of Bayesian statistics too narrow? (with discussion), in J.M.BernardoJosé M., J.O.BergerJames O., A.P.Dawid, and A.F.M.SmithAdrian F. M. (eds.), Bayesian Statistics 4. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1–15.
    • (1992) Bayesian Statistics 4 , pp. 1-15
    • Lindley, D.V.1
  • 76
    • 70449411807 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The BUGS project: evolution, critique and future directions (with discussion)
    • D.Lunn, David, D.SpiegelhalterDavid, A.ThomasAndrew, and N.BestNicky. 2009. The BUGS project: evolution, critique and future directions (with discussion), Statistics in Medicine 28(25): 3049–3082. doi: 10.1002/sim.3680
    • (2009) Statistics in Medicine , vol.28 , Issue.25 , pp. 3049-3082
    • Lunn, D.1    Spiegelhalter, D.2    Thomas, A.3    Best, N.4
  • 79
    • 0035261371 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates
    • S.M.Lynch, Scott M. and J.S.BrownJ. Scott. 2001. Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates, Demography 38(1): 79–95. doi: 10.1353/dem.2001.0007
    • (2001) Demography , vol.38 , Issue.1 , pp. 79-95
    • Lynch, S.M.1    Brown, J.S.2
  • 80
    • 78650396152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Obtaining multistate life table distributions for highly refined subpopulations from cross-sectional data: a Bayesian extension of Sullivan's method
    • S.M.Lynch, Scott M. and J.S.BrownJ. Scott. 2010. Obtaining multistate life table distributions for highly refined subpopulations from cross-sectional data: a Bayesian extension of Sullivan's method, Demography 47(4): 1053–1077. doi: 10.1007/BF03213739
    • (2010) Demography , vol.47 , Issue.4 , pp. 1053-1077
    • Lynch, S.M.1    Brown, J.S.2
  • 83
    • 0031236942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The fitting of parameter-constrained demographic models
    • J.W.McDonald, John W. and A.T.PrevostAndrew Toby. 1997. The fitting of parameter-constrained demographic models, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 26(6): 79–88. doi: 10.1016/S0895-7177(97)00171-4
    • (1997) Mathematical and Computer Modelling , vol.26 , Issue.6 , pp. 79-88
    • McDonald, J.W.1    Prevost, A.T.2
  • 84
    • 84856159044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Age and fertility: can women wait until their early thirties to try for a first birth?
    • J.W.McDonald, John W., A.RosinaAlessandro, E.RizziEster, and B.ColomboBernardo. 2011. Age and fertility: can women wait until their early thirties to try for a first birth? Journal of Biosocial Science 43(6): 685–700. doi: 10.1017/S002193201100040X
    • (2011) Journal of Biosocial Science , vol.43 , Issue.6 , pp. 685-700
    • McDonald, J.W.1    Rosina, A.2    Rizzi, E.3    Colombo, B.4
  • 85
    • 0034136418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies
    • M.G.Merli, M. Giovanna and A.E.RafteryAdrian E. 2000. Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies, Demography 37(1): 109–126. doi: 10.2307/2648100
    • (2000) Demography , vol.37 , Issue.1 , pp. 109-126
    • Merli, M.G.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 86
    • 0035686555 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Success and future of demography: the role of data and methods
    • S.P.Morgan, S. Philip and S.M.LynchScott M. 2001. Success and future of demography: the role of data and methods, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 954(1): 35–51. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2001.tb02745.x
    • (2001) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , vol.954 , Issue.1 , pp. 35-51
    • Morgan, S.P.1    Lynch, S.M.2
  • 87
    • 0035091566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do previous birth interval and mother's education influence infant survival? A Bayesian model averaging analysis of Chinese data
    • M.Murphy, Michael and D.WangDuolao. 2001. Do previous birth interval and mother's education influence infant survival? A Bayesian model averaging analysis of Chinese data, Population Studies 55(1): 37–47. doi: 10.1080/00324720127679
    • (2001) Population Studies , vol.55 , Issue.1 , pp. 37-47
    • Murphy, M.1    Wang, D.2
  • 88
    • 51249176735 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian cohort models for general cohort table analyses
    • T.Nakamura, Takashi. 1986. Bayesian cohort models for general cohort table analyses, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 38: 353–370. doi: 10.1007/BF02482523
    • (1986) Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics , vol.38 , pp. 353-370
    • Nakamura, T.1
  • 89
    • 85057196821 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MCMC using Hamiltonian dynamics
    • Brooks S., Gelman A., Jones G., Meng X.-L., (eds), Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press
    • R.M.Neal, Radford M. 2011. MCMC using Hamiltonian dynamics, in S.BrooksSteve, A.GelmanAndrew, G.JonesGalin, and X.-L.MengXiao-Li (eds.), Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, pp. 113–162.
    • (2011) Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo , pp. 113-162
    • Neal, R.M.1
  • 90
    • 84889367764 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wiley Series in Computational Statistics, Chichester: Wiley
    • I.Ntzoufras, Ioannis. 2009. Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS. Wiley Series in Computational Statistics. Chichester: Wiley.
    • (2009) Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS
    • Ntzoufras, I.1
  • 92
    • 0041399511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs
    • J.Oakley, Jeremy and A.O'HaganAnthony. 2002. Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs, Biometrika 89(4): 769–784. doi: 10.1093/biomet/89.4.769
    • (2002) Biometrika , vol.89 , Issue.4 , pp. 769-784
    • Oakley, J.1    O'Hagan, A.2
  • 93
    • 0037052454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Broken limits to life expectancy
    • J.Oeppen, Jim and J.W.VaupelJames W. 2002. Broken limits to life expectancy, Science 296(5570): 1029–1031. doi: 10.1126/science.1069675
    • (2002) Science , vol.296 , Issue.5570 , pp. 1029-1031
    • Oeppen, J.1    Vaupel, J.W.2
  • 94
    • 85006888831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission of fertility pattern in mother-daughter relation—A Bayesian view (A case study of Austria)
    • B.Osiewalska, Beata. 2013. Transmission of fertility pattern in mother-daughter relation—A Bayesian view (A case study of Austria), Studia Demograficzne 163(1): 3–35.
    • (2013) Studia Demograficzne , vol.163 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-35
    • Osiewalska, B.1
  • 95
    • 84961400745 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CRAN Task View: Bayesian Inference. Version: 2015-07-01. R online resource. Available at: (accessed: 29 July 2015)
    • J.H.Park, Jong Hee. 2015. CRAN Task View: Bayesian Inference. Version: 2015-07-01. R online resource. Available at: https://cran.r-project.org/web/views/Bayesian.html (accessed: 29 July 2015).
    • (2015)
    • Park, J.H.1
  • 96
    • 84875458559 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New important developments in small area estimation
    • D.Pfeffermann, Danny. 2013. New important developments in small area estimation, Statistical Science 28(1): 40–68. doi: 10.1214/12-STS395
    • (2013) Statistical Science , vol.28 , Issue.1 , pp. 40-68
    • Pfeffermann, D.1
  • 97
    • 0442293846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inference for deterministic simulation models: the Bayesian melding approach
    • D.Poole, David and A.E.RafteryAdrian E. 2000. Inference for deterministic simulation models: the Bayesian melding approach, Journal of the American Statistical Association 95(452): 1244–1255. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2000.10474324
    • (2000) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.95 , Issue.452 , pp. 1244-1255
    • Poole, D.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 99
    • 0001201909 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian model selection in social research
    • A.E.Raftery, Adrian E. 1995. Bayesian model selection in social research, Sociological Methodology 25: 111–163. doi: 10.2307/271063
    • (1995) Sociological Methodology , vol.25 , pp. 111-163
    • Raftery, A.E.1
  • 100
    • 84950955471 scopus 로고
    • Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with discussion)
    • A.E.Raftery, Adrian E., G.H.GivensGeof H., and J.E.ZehJudith E. 1995. Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(430): 402–416. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1995.10476529
    • (1995) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.90 , Issue.430 , pp. 402-416
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Givens, G.H.2    Zeh, J.E.3
  • 102
    • 84877594864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries
    • A.E.Raftery, Adrian E., J.L.ChunnJennifer L., P.GerlandPatrick, and H.ŠevčíkováHana. 2013. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries, Demography 50(3): 777–801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x
    • (2013) Demography , vol.50 , Issue.3 , pp. 777-801
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Chunn, J.L.2    Gerland, P.3    Ševčíková, H.4
  • 103
    • 84897953385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
    • A.E.Raftery, Adrian E., N.LalicNevena, and P.GerlandPatrick. 2014. Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy, Demographic Research 30(27): 795–822. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27
    • (2014) Demographic Research , vol.30 , Issue.27 , pp. 795-822
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Lalic, N.2    Gerland, P.3
  • 105
    • 48249117862 scopus 로고
    • Regional population project models and accounting methods
    • P.H.Rees, Philip H. 1979. Regional population project models and accounting methods, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General) 142(2): 223–255. doi: 10.2307/2345082
    • (1979) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General) , vol.142 , Issue.2 , pp. 223-255
    • Rees, P.H.1
  • 106
    • 65449141645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian estimation of Hispanic fertility hazards from survey and population data
    • M.S.Rendall, Michael S., M.S.HandcockMark S., and S.H.JonssonStefan H. 2009. Bayesian estimation of Hispanic fertility hazards from survey and population data, Demography 46(1): 65–82. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0041
    • (2009) Demography , vol.46 , Issue.1 , pp. 65-82
    • Rendall, M.S.1    Handcock, M.S.2    Jonsson, S.H.3
  • 107
    • 84889684814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Migration and Pacific mortality: estimating migration effects on Pacific mortality rates using Bayesian models
    • K.Richardson, Ken, S.JatranaSantosh, M.TobiasMartin, and T.BlakelyTony. 2013. Migration and Pacific mortality: estimating migration effects on Pacific mortality rates using Bayesian models, Demography 50(6): 2053–2073. doi: 10.1007/s13524-013-0234-0
    • (2013) Demography , vol.50 , Issue.6 , pp. 2053-2073
    • Richardson, K.1    Jatrana, S.2    Tobias, M.3    Blakely, T.4
  • 108
    • 32444438704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model with long-term survivors for the analysis of current-status nuptiality data
    • A.Rosina, Alessandro. 2006. A model with long-term survivors for the analysis of current-status nuptiality data, Population Studies 60(1): 73–81. doi: 10.1080/00324720500430808
    • (2006) Population Studies , vol.60 , Issue.1 , pp. 73-81
    • Rosina, A.1
  • 109
    • 0000439370 scopus 로고
    • Bayesianly justifiable and relevant frequency calculations for the applied statistician
    • D.B.Rubin, Donald B. 1984. Bayesianly justifiable and relevant frequency calculations for the applied statistician, The Annals of Statistics 12(4): 1151–1172. doi: 10.1214/aos/1176346785
    • (1984) The Annals of Statistics , vol.12 , Issue.4 , pp. 1151-1172
    • Rubin, D.B.1
  • 110
    • 62849120031 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations
    • H.Rue, Håvard, S.MartinoSara, and N.ChopinNicolas. 2009. Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 71(2): 319–392. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x
    • (2009) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) , vol.71 , Issue.2 , pp. 319-392
    • Rue, H.1    Martino, S.2    Chopin, N.3
  • 111
    • 84961408531 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • n.d, Bayesian Analysis Using SAS/STAT® Software. Online resource. Available: (accessed on 29 July 2015)
    • SAS Inc. n.d. Bayesian Analysis Using SAS/STAT® Software. Online resource. Available: http://support.sas.com/rnd/app/da/Bayesian/ (accessed on 29 July 2015).
  • 112
    • 0003984043 scopus 로고
    • New York: John Wiley and Sons, (1972: revised edition, New York: Dover Publications)
    • L.J.Savage, Leonard J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley and Sons (1972: revised edition, New York: Dover Publications).
    • (1954) The Foundations of Statistics
    • Savage, L.J.1
  • 114
    • 84886388711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayes plus Brass: estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data
    • C.P.Schmertmann, Carl P., S.M.CavenaghiSuzana M., R.M.AssunçãoRenato M., and J.E.PotterJoseph E. 2013. Bayes plus Brass: estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data, Population Studies 67(3): 255–273. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2013.795602
    • (2013) Population Studies , vol.67 , Issue.3 , pp. 255-273
    • Schmertmann, C.P.1    Cavenaghi, S.M.2    Assunção, R.M.3    Potter, J.E.4
  • 116
    • 36049047287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling and prediction – BAMP
    • Available:
    • V.J.Schmid, Volker J. and L.Knorr-HeldLeonard. 2007. Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling and prediction – BAMP, Journal of Statistical Software 21(8), Available: http://www.jstatsoft.org/v21/i08 doi: 10.18637/jss.v021.i08
    • (2007) Journal of Statistical Software , vol.21 , Issue.8
    • Schmid, V.J.1    Knorr-Held, L.2
  • 117
  • 118
    • 84901381723 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
    • D.Sharrow, David, S.J.ClarkSamuel J., M.CollinsonMark, K.KahnKathleen, and S.TollmanStephen. 2013. The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa, Demographic Research 29(39): 1039–1096. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.39
    • (2013) Demographic Research , vol.29 , Issue.39 , pp. 1039-1096
    • Sharrow, D.1    Clark, S.J.2    Collinson, M.3    Kahn, K.4    Tollman, S.5
  • 119
    • 80052630269 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Visualising uncertainty about the future
    • D.Spiegelhalter, David, M.PearsonMike, and I.ShortIan. 2011. Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333(6048): 1393–1400. doi: 10.1126/science.1191181
    • (2011) Science , vol.333 , Issue.6048 , pp. 1393-1400
    • Spiegelhalter, D.1    Pearson, M.2    Short, I.3
  • 120
    • 84961408205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weltbevölkerung im Jahr 2100: Wir werden bis zu 13 Milliarden sein [World Population in 2100: there will be up to 13 billion of us], Spiegel Online 18 September 2014. Available: (accessed: 15 November 2014)
    • T.Stukenberg, Timo. 2014. Weltbevölkerung im Jahr 2100: Wir werden bis zu 13 Milliarden sein [World Population in 2100: there will be up to 13 billion of us], Spiegel Online 18 September 2014. Available: http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/weltbevoelkerung-vereinte-nationen-sagen-wachstum-bis-2100-voraus-a-991874.html (accessed: 15 November 2014).
    • (2014)
    • Stukenberg, T.1
  • 121
    • 0002245207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation, probability-weighted priors and information in stochastic forecasts
    • S.Tuljapurkar, Shripad and C.BoeCarl. 1999. Validation, probability-weighted priors and information in stochastic forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting 15(3): 259–271. doi: 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00082-X
    • (1999) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.15 , Issue.3 , pp. 259-271
    • Tuljapurkar, S.1    Boe, C.2
  • 122
    • 0344825935 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Life expectancy at current rates vs. current conditions: a reflexion stimulated by Bongaarts and Feeney's ‘How long do we live?’
    • J.W.Vaupel, James W. 2002. Life expectancy at current rates vs. current conditions: a reflexion stimulated by Bongaarts and Feeney's ‘How long do we live?’, Demographic Research 7(8): 365–378. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.7.8
    • (2002) Demographic Research , vol.7 , Issue.8 , pp. 365-378
    • Vaupel, J.W.1
  • 123
    • 79956316388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Galaxy formation: a Bayesian uncertainty analysis (with discussion)
    • I.Vernon, Ian, M.GoldsteinMichael, and R.G.BowerRichard G. 2010. Galaxy formation: a Bayesian uncertainty analysis (with discussion), Bayesian Analysis 5(4): 619–669. doi: 10.1214/10-BA524
    • (2010) Bayesian Analysis , vol.5 , Issue.4 , pp. 619-669
    • Vernon, I.1    Goldstein, M.2    Bower, R.G.3
  • 124
    • 84878261900 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data
    • M.C.Wheldon, Mark C., A.E.RafteryAdrian E., S.J.ClarkSamuel J., and P.GerlandPatrick. 2013. Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data, Journal of the American Statistical Association 108(501): 96–110. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2012.737729
    • (2013) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.108 , Issue.501 , pp. 96-110
    • Wheldon, M.C.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Clark, S.J.3    Gerland, P.4
  • 125
    • 84959045756 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries
    • forthcoming
    • M.C.Wheldon, Mark C., A.E.RafteryAdrian E., S.J.ClarkSamuel J., and P.GerlandPatrick. 2016. Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries, Population Studies forthcoming.
    • (2016) Population Studies
    • Wheldon, M.C.1    Raftery, A.E.2    Clark, S.J.3    Gerland, P.4
  • 126
    • 84887118294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From Bayesian epistemology to inductive logic
    • J.Williamson, Jon. 2013. From Bayesian epistemology to inductive logic, Journal of Applied Logic 11(4): 468–486. doi: 10.1016/j.jal.2013.03.006
    • (2013) Journal of Applied Logic , vol.11 , Issue.4 , pp. 468-486
    • Williamson, J.1
  • 127
    • 84961401034 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Introduction: Bayesianism into the 21st Century
    • Williamson J., Corfield D., (eds), Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers
    • J.Williamson, Jon and D.CorfieldDavid. 2002. Introduction: Bayesianism into the 21st Century, in J.WilliamsonJon and D.CorfieldDavid (eds.), Foundations of Bayesianism. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 7–22.
    • (2002) Foundations of Bayesianism , pp. 7-22
    • Williamson, J.1    Corfield, D.2
  • 128
  • 129
    • 84903764623 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate
    • A.Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, J.BijakJakub, and H.L.ShangHan Lin. 2014. Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate, Population, Space and Place 20(5): 455–464. doi: 10.1002/psp.1856
    • (2014) Population, Space and Place , vol.20 , Issue.5 , pp. 455-464
    • Wiśniowski, A.1    Bijak, J.2    Shang, H.L.3
  • 130
    • 84930868531 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian population forecasting: extending the Lee-Carter method
    • A.Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, P.W.F.SmithPeter W. F., J.BijakJakub, J.RaymerJames, and J.J.ForsterJonathan J. 2015. Bayesian population forecasting: extending the Lee-Carter method, Demography 52(3): 1035–1059. doi: 10.1007/s13524-015-0389-y
    • (2015) Demography , vol.52 , Issue.3 , pp. 1035-1059
    • Wiśniowski, A.1    Smith, P.W.F.2    Bijak, J.3    Raymer, J.4    Forster, J.J.5
  • 131
    • 1542741843 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demography: past, present and future
    • Y.Xie, Yu. 2000. Demography: past, present and future, Journal of the American Statistical Association 95(450): 670–673. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2000.10474248
    • (2000) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.95 , Issue.450 , pp. 670-673
    • Xie, Y.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.