Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data

Journal of the American Statistical Association

Volumn 108, Issue 501, 2013, Pages 96-110

  Wheldon, Mark C ^a   Raftery, Adrian E ^a   Clark, Samuel J ^a,b,c   Gerland, Patrick ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^d Population Division   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian hierarchical model; Cohort component model; Fertility rate; Internationalmigration; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Mortality rate

Indexed keywords

EID: 84878261900     PISSN: 01621459     EISSN: 1537274X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2012.737729     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Alho, J. M. (1992). "The Magnitude of Error Due to Different Vital Processes in Population Forecasts, " International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 301-314. [97]
2. Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., and Pelletier, F. (2012). "Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility RateWith Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples From West Africa, " Demographic Research, 26, 331-362. [102]
3. Bertino, S., and Sonnino, E. (2003). "The Stochastic Inverse Projection and the Population of Velletri (1590-1870), " Mathematical Population Studies, 10, 41-73. [97,108]
4. Booth, H. (2006). "Demographic Forecasting: 1980 to 2005 In Review, " International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 547-581. [96]
5. Boyle, P. P., and Ó Gráda, C. (1986). "Fertility Trends, Excess Mortality, and the Great Irish Famine, " Demography, 23, 543-562. [96]
6. Brass, W. (1971). "On the Scale of Mortality, " in Biological Aspects of Demography, ed. W. Brass, London: Taylor & Francis. [103]
7. Brooks, S. P., Catchpole, E. A., and Morgan, B. J. T. (2000a). "Bayesian Animal Survival Estimation, " Statistical Science, 15, 357-376. [97]
8. Brooks, S. P., Catchpole, E. A., Morgan, B. J. T., and Barry, S. C. (2000b). "On the Bayesian Analysis of Ring-Recovery Data, " Biometrics, 56, 951-956. [97]
9. Brooks, S. P., Catchpole, E. A., Morgan, B. J. T., and Harris, M. P. (2002). "Bayesian Methods for Analysing Ringing Data, " Journal of Applied Statistics, 29, 187-206. [97]
10. Carlin, B. P., and Louis, T. A. (2009). Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis (3rd ed.), Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press. [107]
11. Carlin, B. P., and Polson, N. G. (1991). "Inference for Nonconjugate Bayesian Models Using the Gibbs Sampler, " Canadian Journal of Statistics, 19, 399-405. [107,109]
12. Catchpole, E. A., Kgosi, P. M., and Morgan, B. J. T. (2001). "On the Near-Singularity of Models for Animal Recovery Data, " Biometrics, 57, 720-726. [97]
13. Cleveland, W. S. (1979). "Robust LocallyWeighted Regression and Smoothing Scatterplots, " Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 829-836. [102]
14. Cleveland, W. S., Grosse, E., and Shyu, W. M. (1992). "Local Regression Models, " in Statistical Models in S, eds. J. Chambers and T. Hastie, Pacific Grove, CA: Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole, chap. 8. [102]
15. Cohen, J. E. (2006). "Stochastic Demography, " Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, DOI: 10.1002/0471667196.ess2584.pub2. [108]
16. Condé, J. (1980). "Migration inUpperVolta, " in Demographic Aspects of Migration in West Africa (vol. 2), eds. K. C. Zachariah, and J. Condé, Washington, DC: World Bank. [103,107]
17. Daponte, B. O., Kadane, J. B., and Wolfson, L. J. (1997). "Bayesian Demography: Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population, 1977-1990, " Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 1256-1267. [97]
18. Geman, S., and Geman, D. (1984). "Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distributions, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images, " in IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, PAMI-6, pp. 721-741. [100]
19. Givens, G. H., Raftery, A. E., and Zeh, J. E. (1993). "Benefits of a Bayesian Approach for Synthesizing Multiple Sources of Evidence and Uncertainty Linked by a Deterministic Model, " Report of the International Whaling Commission, 43, 495-500. [97]
20. Goodkind, D., and West, L. (2001). "The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact, " Population and Development Review, 27, 219-238. [96]
21. Hastings, W. K. (1970). "Monte Carlo Sampling Methods UsingMarkov Chains and Their Applications, " Biometrika, 57, 97-109. [100]
22. Heuveline, P. (1998). "Between One and Three Million: Towards the Demographic Reconstruction of a Decade of Cambodian History (1970-79), " Population Studies, 52, 49-65. [96]
23. Keilman, N. (1998). "How Accurate are the United Nations World Population Projections?, " Population and Development Review, 24, 15-41. [100]
24. Lee, R. D. (1971). Econometric Studies of Topics in Demographic History, Dissertation in Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. [97,108]
25. Lee, R. D. (1974). "Estimating Series of Vital Rates and Age Structures From Baptisms and Burials: A New Technique, With Applications to Pre-Industrial England, " Population Studies, 28, 495-512. [97,108]
26. Lee, R. D. (1985). "Inverse Projection and Back Projection: A Critical Appraisal, and Comparative Results for England, 1539 to 1871, " Population Studies, 39, 233-248. [97]
27. Lee, R. D. (1993). "Inverse Projection and Demographic Fluctuations", in Old and New Methods in Historical Demography, eds. D. S. Reher and R. Schofield, Oxford: Clarendon Press, pp. 7-28. [97]
28. Lee, R. D. (1998). "Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting, " Population and Development Review, 24, 156-190. [96]
29. Leslie, P. H. (1945). "On the Use of Matrices in Certain Population Mathematics, " Biometrika, 33, 183-212. [97]
30. Leslie, P. H. (1948). "Some Further Notes on the Use of Matrices in Population Mathematics, " Biometrika, 35, 213-245. [97]
31. Lewis, E. G. (1942). "On the Generation and Growth of a Population, " Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics (1933-1960), 6, 93-96. [97]
32. McAllister, M. K., Pikitch, E. K., Punt, A. E., and Hilborn, R. (1994). "A Bayesian Approach to Stock Assessment and Harvest Decisions Using the Sampling/Importance Resampling Algorithm, " Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 51, 2673-2687. [97]
33. McCaa, R., and Barbi, E. (2004). "Inverse Projection: Fine-Tuning and Expanding the Method, " in Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches, eds. E. Barbi, S. Bertino, and E. Sonnino, Berlin: Springer-Verlag, pp. 11-28. [97]
34. Merli, M. G. (1998). "Mortality in Vietnam, 1979-1989, " Demography, 35, 345-360. [96]
35. Metropolis, N., Rosenbluth, A.W., Rosenbluth, M. N., Teller, A. H., and Teller, E. (1953). "Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines, " Journal of Chemical Physics, 21, 1087-1092. [100]
36. Oeppen, J. (1993). "Back Projection and Inverse Projection: Members of aWider Class of Constrained Projection Models, " Population Studies, 47, 245-267. [97,108]
37. O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Deaneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E., and Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities, London: Wiley. [99]
38. Plummer, M., Best, N., Cowles, K., andVines, K. (2006). "CODA: Convergence Diagnosis and Output Analysis for MCMC, " R News, 6, 7-11. [100]
39. Plummer, M., Best, N., Cowles, K., andVines, K. (2010). CODA: Output Analysis and Diagnostics for MCMC (Comprehensive R Archive Network, CRAN). Available at www.r-project.org. [100]
40. Pollard, J. H. (1968). "A Note on Multi-Type Galton-Watson Processes With Random Branching Probabilities, " Biometrika, 55, 589-590. [108]
41. Poole, D., and Raftery, A. E. (2000). "Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models: The Bayesian Melding Approach, " Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 1244-1255. [97]
42. Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Malden, MA: Blackwell. [97,98]
43. Quinn, T. J., and Deriso, R. B. (1999). Quantitative Fish Dynamics, New York: Oxford University Press. [97]
44. R Development Core Team (2010). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. [100]
45. Raftery, A. E., Givens, G. H., and Zeh, J. E. (1995). "Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales, " Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 402-416. [97]
46. Raftery, A. E., and Lewis, S. M. (1996). "Implementing MCMC, " in Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, eds. W. R. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. J. Spiegelhalter, London: Chapman & Hall, pp. 115-130. [100]
47. Raymer, J., de Beer, J., and van der Erf, R. (2011). "Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration Amongst Countries in the EU/EFTA, 2002-2007, " European Journal of Population, 27, 185-215. [109]
48. Rosina, A. (2004). "Using Information on the Age Distribution of Deaths in Population Reconstruction: An Extension of Inverse ProjectionWith Applications, " in Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches, eds. E. Barbi, S. Bertino, and E. Sonnino, Berlin: Springer-Verlag, pp. 29-38. [97]
49. Timæus, I.M. (1999). "Notes on a Series of Life Table Estimates of Mortality in the Countries of the Sub-Saharan Africa Region, " unpublished manuscript prepared for the World Health Organization. [103]
50. United Nations (1983). Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation, New York: Department of International, Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. [96]
51. United Nations (2009a). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (Vol. I: Comparative Tables), New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations. [96,102,103]
52. United Nations (2009b). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (Vol. II: Sex and Age Distribution), New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations. [96]
53. United Nations (2010). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (Vol. III: Analytical Report), New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations. [99]
54. United States Census Bureau (2008). International Data Base: Demographic Indicators, Burkina Faso, 1960-2000. Available at http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGate way.php. [103,107]
55. Wrigley, E. A., and Schofield, R. S. (1981). The Population History of England, 1541-1871: A Reconstruction, London: Edward Arnold. [96,97]