메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 143, Issue 12, 2015, Pages 5091-5114

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF ensemble and deterministic prediction systems. Part I: Tropical cyclone stage

Author keywords

Atm Ocean Structure Phenomena; Ensembles; Forecast verification skill; Forecasting; Numerical weather prediction forecasting; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

BOUNDARY LAYERS; ERRORS; FORECASTING; HURRICANES; LOCATION; SEA LEVEL; STORMS; TROPICS; VORTICITY; WIND;

EID: 84957836830     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: 15200493     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00385.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (25)

References (77)
  • 1
    • 65549086909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An alternative tropical cyclone intensity forecast verification technique
    • Aberson, S. D., 2008: An alternative tropical cyclone intensity forecast verification technique. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 1304-1310, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222123.1.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 1304-1310
    • Aberson, S.D.1
  • 2
    • 0000978352 scopus 로고
    • Verification of a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR)
    • Aberson, S. D., and M. DeMaria, 1994: Verification of a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR). Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2804-2815, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122, 2804: VOANBH.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.122 , pp. 2804-2815
    • Aberson, S.D.1    DeMaria, M.2
  • 3
    • 78650883419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Review of observing system simulation experiments to evaluate the potential impact of lidar winds on weather prediction
    • Honolulu, HI, IEEE
    • Atlas, R., 2010: Review of observing system simulation experiments to evaluate the potential impact of lidar winds on weather prediction. Int. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symp. (IGARSS), Honolulu, HI, IEEE, 2587-2590, doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2010.5654376.
    • (2010) Int. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symp. (IGARSS) , pp. 2587-2590
    • Atlas, R.1
  • 4
    • 79961040284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilating satellite observations of clouds and precipitation into NWP models
    • Bauer, P., G. Ohring, C. Kummerow, and T. Auligne, 2011: Assimilating satellite observations of clouds and precipitation into NWP models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, ES25-ES28, doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3182.1.
    • (2011) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.92 , pp. ES25-ES28
    • Bauer, P.1    Ohring, G.2    Kummerow, C.3    Auligne, T.4
  • 5
    • 0028880195 scopus 로고
    • Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model
    • Bengtsson, L., L. M. Botzet, and M. Esch, 1995: Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Tellus, 47A, 175-196, doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.t01-1-00003.x.
    • (1995) Tellus , vol.47A , pp. 175-196
    • Bengtsson, L.1    Botzet, L.M.2    Esch, M.3
  • 6
    • 34547414067 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: Comparison with observations and reanalyses
    • Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and M. Esch, 2007a: Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: Comparison with observations and reanalyses. Tellus, 59A, 396-416, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00236.x.
    • (2007) Tellus , vol.59A , pp. 396-416
    • Bengtsson, L.1    Hodges, K.I.2    Esch, M.3
  • 8
    • 66849119215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate?
    • Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Climate, 22, 2276-2301, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2678.1.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 2276-2301
    • Bengtsson, L.1    Hodges, K.I.2    Keenlyside, N.3
  • 9
    • 69849107882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Berner, J., G. J. Shutts, M. Leutbecher, and T. N. Palmer, 2009: A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 603-626, doi:10.1175/2008JAS2677.1.
    • (2009) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.66 , pp. 603-626
    • Berner, J.1    Shutts, G.J.2    Leutbecher, M.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 10
    • 33744516344 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics in tropical cyclonemotion:Areview. Chin
    • Bin, W., R. L. Elsberry, W. Yuqing, andW. Liguang, 1998:Dynamics in tropical cyclonemotion:Areview. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 22, 416-434.
    • (1998) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.22 , pp. 416-434
    • Bin, W.1    Elsberry, R.L.2    Yuqing, W.3    Liguang, W.4
  • 11
    • 84891647836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone unusual intensity and structure change in thewestern North Pacific observed by reconnaissance aircraft during TPARC/TCS08 and ITOP/TCS10
    • Black, P. G., 2012: Tropical cyclone unusual intensity and structure change in thewestern North Pacific observed by reconnaissance aircraft during TPARC/TCS08 and ITOP/TCS10. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 1, 75-88, doi:10.6057/2012TCRR01.09.
    • (2012) Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev , vol.1 , pp. 75-88
    • Black, P.G.1
  • 13
    • 79952503788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating background-error variances with the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilations system: Some effects of ensemble size and day-to-day variability
    • Bonavita, M., L. Raynaud, and L. Isaksen, 2011: Estimating background-error variances with the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilations system: Some effects of ensemble size and day-to-day variability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 423-434, doi:10.1002/qj.756.
    • (2011) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.137 , pp. 423-434
    • Bonavita, M.1    Raynaud, L.2    Isaksen, L.3
  • 14
    • 42549148763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accounting for the effect of observation errors on verification of MOGREPS
    • Bowler, N. E., 2008: Accounting for the effect of observation errors on verification of MOGREPS. Meteor. Appl., 15, 199-205, doi:10.1002/met.64.
    • (2008) Meteor. Appl , vol.15 , pp. 199-205
    • Bowler, N.E.1
  • 15
    • 77954449861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Horizontal resolution impact on short-and longrange forecast error
    • Buizza, R., 2010: Horizontal resolution impact on short-and longrange forecast error. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1020-1035, doi:10.1002/qj.613.
    • (2010) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.136 , pp. 1020-1035
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 16
    • 0003207346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza, R., and A. Hollingsworth, 2002: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Meteor. Appl., 9, 289-305, doi:10.1017/S1350482702003031.
    • (2002) Meteor. Appl , vol.9 , pp. 289-305
    • Buizza, R.1    Hollingsworth, A.2
  • 17
    • 0033403384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart
    • Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887-2908, doi:10.1002/qj.49712556006.
    • (1999) J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.125 , pp. 2887-2908
    • Buizza, R.1    Miller, M.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 18
    • 34250724191 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part II: Large-scale circulation and ENSO
    • Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007: Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part II: Large-scale circulation and ENSO. J. Climate, 20, 3654-3676, doi:10.1175/JCLI4203.1.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 3654-3676
    • Camargo, S.J.1    Robertson, A.W.2    Gaffney, S.J.3    Smyth, P.4    Ghil, M.5
  • 19
    • 57149144684 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are tropical cyclones less effectively formed by easterly waves in the western North Pacific than in the North Atlantic?
    • Chen, T.-C., S.-Y. Wang, M.-C. Yen, and A. J. Clark, 2008: Are tropical cyclones less effectively formed by easterly waves in the western North Pacific than in the North Atlantic? Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4527-4540, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2149.1.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.136 , pp. 4527-4540
    • Chen, T.-C.1    Wang, S.-Y.2    Yen, M.-C.3    Clark, A.J.4
  • 20
    • 84856970983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatological variations in North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks
    • Colbert, A. J., and B. J. Soden, 2012: Climatological variations in North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 25, 657-673, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00034.1.
    • (2012) J. Climate , vol.25 , pp. 657-673
    • Colbert, A.J.1    Soden, B.J.2
  • 21
    • 0028561614 scopus 로고
    • A strategy for operational implementation of 4D-Var, using an incremental approach
    • Courtier, P., J. N. Thépaut, and A. Hollingsworth, 1994: A strategy for operational implementation of 4D-Var, using an incremental approach. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1367-1387, doi:10.1002/qj.49712051912.
    • (1994) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.120 , pp. 1367-1387
    • Courtier, P.1    Thépaut, J.N.2    Hollingsworth, A.3
  • 22
    • 0022172256 scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone motion in a nondivergent barotropic model
    • DeMaria, M., 1985: Tropical cyclone motion in a nondivergent barotropic model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1199-1210, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113, 1199:TCMIAN.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1985) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.113 , pp. 1199-1210
    • DeMaria, M.1
  • 23
    • 0001498511 scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting from satellite imagery
    • Dvorak, V. F., 1975: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting from satellite imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 420-430, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103, 0420:TCIAAF.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1975) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.103 , pp. 420-430
    • Dvorak, V.F.1
  • 24
    • 0031464889 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal prediction of forecast error covariance through singular vectors
    • Ehrendorfer, M., and J. Tribbia, 1997: Optimal prediction of forecast error covariance through singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 286-313, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054, 0286: OPOFEC.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.54 , pp. 286-313
    • Ehrendorfer, M.1    Tribbia, J.2
  • 25
    • 35748956124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The interannual variability of tropical cyclones
    • Frank, W. M., and G. S. Young, 2007: The interannual variability of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3587-3589, doi:10.1175/MWR3435.1.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.135 , pp. 3587-3589
    • Frank, W.M.1    Young, G.S.2
  • 26
    • 77955570957 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems
    • Froude, L. S. R., 2010: TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 819-836, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222326.1.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 819-836
    • Froude, L.S.R.1
  • 27
    • 33847361093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system
    • Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges, 2007a: The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 315-333, doi:10.1175/MWR3274.1.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.135 , pp. 315-333
    • Froude, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 28
    • 34547679926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction system
    • Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges, 2007b: The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2545-2576, doi:10.1175/MWR3422.1.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.135 , pp. 2545-2576
    • Froude, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 29
    • 84882586687 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric predictability revisited
    • Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges, 2013: Atmospheric predictability revisited. Tellus, 65, 19022, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19022.
    • (2013) Tellus , vol.65 , pp. 19022
    • Froude, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 32
    • 0028572982 scopus 로고
    • A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data
    • Hodges, K. I., 1994: A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2573-2586, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122, 2573: AGMFTA.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.122 , pp. 2573-2586
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 33
    • 0000461755 scopus 로고
    • Feature tracking on the unit sphere
    • Hodges, K. I., 1995: Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3458-3465, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123, 3458: FTOTUS.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.123 , pp. 3458-3465
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 34
    • 0032716885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive constraints for feature tracking
    • Hodges, K. I., 1999: Adaptive constraints for feature tracking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1362-1373, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127, 1362: ACFFT.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.127 , pp. 1362-1373
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 35
    • 80053150930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25
    • Hodges, K. I., R. W. Lee, and L. Bengtsson, 2011: A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25. J. Climate, 24, 4888-4906, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4097.1.
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 4888-4906
    • Hodges, K.I.1    Lee, R.W.2    Bengtsson, L.3
  • 36
    • 34250802646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones
    • Hopsch, S. B., C. Thorncroft, K. I. Hodges, and A. Aiyyer, 2007: West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 20, 2468-2483, doi:10.1175/JCLI4139.1.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 2468-2483
    • Hopsch, S.B.1    Thorncroft, C.2    Hodges, K.I.3    Aiyyer, A.4
  • 37
    • 84896782347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the ensemble spread-error relationship
    • Hopson, T. M., 2014: Assessing the ensemble spread-error relationship. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1125-1142, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00111.1.
    • (2014) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.142 , pp. 1125-1142
    • Hopson, T.M.1
  • 38
    • 1642561860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions
    • Jones, S. C., and Coauthors, 2003: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1052-1092, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018, 1052:TETOTC.2.0.CO;2.
    • (2003) Wea. Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 1052-1092
    • Jones, S.C.1
  • 39
    • 70350348308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Four years of tropical ERA-40 vorticity maxima tracks. Part II: Differences between developing and nondeveloping disturbances
    • Kerns, B., and E. Zipser, 2009: Four years of tropical ERA-40 vorticity maxima tracks. Part II: Differences between developing and nondeveloping disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2576-2591, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2545.1.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.137 , pp. 2576-2591
    • Kerns, B.1    Zipser, E.2
  • 41
    • 78149331716 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An evaluation of Dvorak technique-based tropical cyclone intensity estimates
    • Knaff, J. A., D. P. Brown, J. Courtney, G. M. Gallina, and J. L. Beven, 2010: An evaluation of Dvorak technique-based tropical cyclone intensity estimates. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1362-1379, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222375.1.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1362-1379
    • Knaff, J.A.1    Brown, D.P.2    Courtney, J.3    Gallina, G.M.4    Beven, J.L.5
  • 42
    • 77955532060 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best-track wind speed estimates
    • Knapp, K. R., and M. C. Kruk, 2010: Quantifying interagency differences in tropical cyclone best-track wind speed estimates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1459-1473, doi:10.1175/2009MWR3123.1.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.138 , pp. 1459-1473
    • Knapp, K.R.1    Kruk, M.C.2
  • 43
    • 77951573931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data
    • Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 363-376, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.91 , pp. 363-376
    • Knapp, K.R.1    Kruk, M.C.2    Levinson, D.H.3    Diamond, H.J.4    Neumann, C.J.5
  • 44
    • 84881272186 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A pressure-based analysis of the historical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity record
    • Knapp, K. R., J.A. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, G.M. Riggio, and A. D. Schnapp, 2013: A pressure-based analysis of the historical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity record. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2611-2631, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00323.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.141 , pp. 2611-2631
    • Knapp, K.R.1    Knaff, J.A.2    Sampson, C.R.3    Riggio, G.M.4    Schnapp, A.D.5
  • 45
    • 1842587692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique
    • Kossin, J. P., and C. S. Velden, 2004: A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 165-173, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132, 0165:APBITC.2.0.CO;2.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.132 , pp. 165-173
    • Kossin, J.P.1    Velden, C.S.2
  • 46
    • 84862143062 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiformity of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship in the western North Pacific: Discrepancies among four best-track archives
    • Kueh, M.-T., 2012: Multiformity of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship in the western North Pacific: Discrepancies among four best-track archives. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024015.
    • (2012) Environ. Res. Lett , vol.7
    • Kueh, M.-T.1
  • 47
    • 84884941860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How good are the best tracks? Estimating uncertainty in the Atlantic hurricane database
    • Landsea, C. W., and J. L. Franklin, 2013: How good are the best tracks? Estimating uncertainty in the Atlantic hurricane database. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3576-3592, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.141 , pp. 3576-3592
    • Landsea, C.W.1    Franklin, J.L.2
  • 48
    • 39549083006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting
    • Leutbecher, M., and T. N. Palmer, 2008: Ensemble forecasting. J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3515-3539, doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.014.
    • (2008) J. Comput. Phys , vol.227 , pp. 3515-3539
    • Leutbecher, M.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 49
    • 0000853495 scopus 로고
    • The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307, doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00444.x.
    • (1969) Tellus , vol.21 , pp. 289-307
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 50
    • 84884295810 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Factors influencing skill improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system
    • Magnusson, L., and K. Erland, 2013: Factors influencing skill improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3142-3153, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00318.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.141 , pp. 3142-3153
    • Magnusson, L.1    Erland, K.2
  • 52
    • 77955522550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the ability of global ensemble prediction systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities
    • Majumdar, S. J., and P. M. Finocchio, 2010: On the ability of global ensemble prediction systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 659-680, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222327.1.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 659-680
    • Majumdar, S.J.1    Finocchio, P.M.2
  • 53
    • 84862109987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: Toward weatherresolving climate modeling
    • Manganello, J. V., and Coauthors, 2012: Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: Toward weatherresolving climate modeling. J. Climate, 25, 3867-3893, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00346.1.
    • (2012) J. Climate , vol.25 , pp. 3867-3893
    • Manganello, J.V.1
  • 54
    • 84880164408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A global climatology of baroclinically influenced tropical cyclogenesis
    • McTaggart-Cowan, R., T. J. Galarneau, L. F. Bosart, R. W. Moore, and O. Martius, 2013: A global climatology of baroclinically influenced tropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1963-1989, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00186.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.141 , pp. 1963-1989
    • McTaggart-Cowan, R.1    Galarneau, T.J.2    Bosart, L.F.3    Moore, R.W.4    Martius, O.5
  • 55
    • 84905687122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the limits of estimating the maximum wind speeds in hurricanes
    • Nolan, D. S., J. A. Zhang, and E. W. Uhlhorn, 2014: On the limits of estimating the maximum wind speeds in hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 2814-2837, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00337.1.
    • (2014) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.142 , pp. 2814-2837
    • Nolan, D.S.1    Zhang, J.A.2    Uhlhorn, E.W.3
  • 56
    • 84859562589 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against analyses and observations
    • Pinson, P., and R. Hagedorn, 2012: Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against analyses and observations. Meteor. Appl., 19, 484-500, doi:10.1002/met.283.
    • (2012) Meteor. Appl , vol.19 , pp. 484-500
    • Pinson, P.1    Hagedorn, R.2
  • 57
    • 78649985278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of satellite data in improving numerical simulations of tropical cyclones: Progress, challenge and development
    • Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications, S. K. Park and L. Xu, Eds., Springer-Verlag
    • Pu, Z., 2009: Assimilation of satellite data in improving numerical simulations of tropical cyclones: Progress, challenge and development. Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications, S. K. Park and L. Xu, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 163-176.
    • (2009) Data Assimilation for Atmospheric , pp. 163-176
    • Pu, Z.1
  • 58
    • 77949300303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of airborne Doppler wind lidar data on numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone
    • Pu, Z., L. Zhang, andG.D. Emmitt, 2010: Impact of airborne Doppler wind lidar data on numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05801, doi:10.1029/2009GL041765.
    • (2010) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.37
    • Pu, Z.1    Zhang, L.2    Emmitt, G.D.3
  • 59
    • 0035079838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors
    • Puri, K., J. Barkmeijer, and T. N. Palmer, 2001: Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 709-731, doi:10.1002/qj.49712757222.
    • (2001) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.127 , pp. 709-731
    • Puri, K.1    Barkmeijer, J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 60
    • 84899878940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structural characteristics of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku during its extratropical transition
    • Quinting, J. F., M. M. Bell, P. A. Harr, and S. C. Jones, 2014: Structural characteristics of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku during its extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1945-1961, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00306.1.
    • (2014) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.142 , pp. 1945-1961
    • Quinting, J.F.1    Bell, M.M.2    Harr, P.A.3    Jones, S.C.4
  • 61
    • 69949139917 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center
    • Rappaport, E. N., and Coauthors, 2009: Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 395-419, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 395-419
    • Rappaport, E.N.1
  • 62
    • 0001106504 scopus 로고
    • Spectral smoothing on the sphere
    • Sardeshmukh, P. D., and B. J. Hoskins, 1984: Spectral smoothing on the sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2524-2529, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112, 2524:SSOTS.2.0.CO;2.
    • (1984) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.112 , pp. 2524-2529
    • Sardeshmukh, P.D.1    Hoskins, B.J.2
  • 63
    • 77958112760 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea
    • Serra, Y. L., G. N. Kiladis, and K. I. Hodges, 2010: Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea. J. Climate, 23, 4823-4840, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3223.1.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 4823-4840
    • Serra, Y.L.1    Kiladis, G.N.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 65
    • 84872977130 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: The role of model resolution
    • Strachan, J., P. L. Vidale, K. I. Hodges, M. Roberts, and M.-E. Demory, 2013: Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: The role of model resolution. J. Climate, 26, 133-152, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00012.1.
    • (2013) J. Climate , vol.26 , pp. 133-152
    • Strachan, J.1    Vidale, P.L.2    Hodges, K.I.3    Roberts, M.4    Demory, M.-E.5
  • 66
    • 0035869797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity
    • Thorncroft, C., and K. I. Hodges, 2001: African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 14, 1166-1179, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014, 1166: AEWVAI.2.0.CO;2.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 1166-1179
    • Thorncroft, C.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 67
    • 84864842816 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty of tropical cyclone best-track information
    • Torn, R. D., and C. Snyder, 2012: Uncertainty of tropical cyclone best-track information. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 715-729, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00085.1.
    • (2012) Wea. Forecasting , vol.27 , pp. 715-729
    • Torn, R.D.1    Snyder, C.2
  • 68
    • 84857987639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observational undersampling in tropical cyclones and implications for estimated intensity
    • Uhlhorn, E. W., and D. S. Nolan, 2012: Observational undersampling in tropical cyclones and implications for estimated intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 825-840, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00073.1.
    • (2012) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.140 , pp. 825-840
    • Uhlhorn, E.W.1    Nolan, D.S.2
  • 69
    • 33749417557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: A satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years
    • Velden, C., and Coauthors, 2006a: The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: A satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1195-1210, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-9-1195.
    • (2006) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.87 , pp. 1195-1210
    • Velden, C.1
  • 70
    • 56849100917 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Supplement to: The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: A satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years
    • Velden, C., and Coauthors, 2006b: Supplement to: The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: A satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, S6-S9, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-9-Velden.
    • (2006) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.87 , pp. S6-S9
    • Velden, C.1
  • 72
    • 84896790156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A novel multiscale intensity metric for evaluation of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts
    • Vukicevic, T., E. Uhlhorn, P. Reasor, and B. Klotz, 2014: A novel multiscale intensity metric for evaluation of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1292-1304, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0153.1.
    • (2014) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.71 , pp. 1292-1304
    • Vukicevic, T.1    Uhlhorn, E.2    Reasor, P.3    Klotz, B.4
  • 73
    • 84957821671 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research FCM-P12-2014
    • Williamson, S. P., and Coauthors, 2014: National hurricane operations plan. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research FCM-P12-2014, 166 pp. [Available online at http://www.ofcm.noaa.gov/nhop/13/nhop13.htm.]
    • (2014) National hurricane operations plan , pp. 166
    • Williamson, S.P.1
  • 74
    • 84957800211 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research WWRP 2013-7
    • WMO, 2013: Verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts. WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research WWRP 2013-7, 89 pp. [Available online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/WWRP_2013_7_TC_verification_15_Nov_en.pdf.]
    • (2013) Verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts , pp. 89
  • 75
    • 0036146873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • If we're so different, why do we keep overlapping? When 1 plus 1 doesn't make 2
    • Wolfe, R., and J. Hanley, 2002: If we're so different, why do we keep overlapping? When 1 plus 1 doesn't make 2. CMAJ, 166, 65-66.
    • (2002) CMAJ , vol.166 , pp. 65-66
    • Wolfe, R.1    Hanley, J.2
  • 76
    • 21844462528 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR): An overview
    • Wu, C.-C., and Coauthors, 2005: Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR): An overview. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 787-790, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-6-787.
    • (2005) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.86 , pp. 787-790
    • Wu, C.-C.1
  • 77
    • 84888423427 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilating AMSU-A radiances in the TC core area with NOAA operational HWRF (2011) and a hybrid data assimilation system: Danielle (2010)
    • Zhang, M., M. Zupanski, M.-J. Kim, and J. A. Knaff, 2013: Assimilating AMSU-A radiances in the TC core area with NOAA operational HWRF (2011) and a hybrid data assimilation system: Danielle (2010). Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3889-3907, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00340.1.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.141 , pp. 3889-3907
    • Zhang, M.1    Zupanski, M.2    Kim, M.-J.3    Knaff, J.A.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.