메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 135, Issue 7, 2007, Pages 2545-2567

The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

TRACKING (POSITION); VORTICITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 34547679926     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR3422.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (57)

References (35)
  • 1
    • 0032717727 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Barkmeijer, J., R. Buizza, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1-25, 2333-2351.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.1 , Issue.25 , pp. 2333-2351
    • Barkmeijer, J.1    Buizza, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 2
    • 27744527740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global observations and forecast skill
    • Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and L. S. R. Froude, 2005: Global observations and forecast skill. Tellus, 57A, 515-527.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 515-527
    • Bengtsson, L.1    Hodges, K.I.2    Froude, L.S.R.3
  • 3
    • 84978549969 scopus 로고
    • Baroclinic instability and the short wavelength cut-off in terms of potential vorticity
    • Bretherton, F. P., 1966: Baroclinic instability and the short wavelength cut-off in terms of potential vorticity. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 92, 335-345.
    • (1966) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.92 , pp. 335-345
    • Bretherton, F.P.1
  • 4
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
    • (1950) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 5
    • 0029412335 scopus 로고
    • The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation
    • Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.52 , pp. 1434-1456
    • Buizza, R.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 6
    • 0036612338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of the U.S. storm of 24-26 January 2000 with the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza, R., and P. Chessa, 2002: Prediction of the U.S. storm of 24-26 January 2000 with the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1531-1551.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.130 , pp. 1531-1551
    • Buizza, R.1    Chessa, P.2
  • 7
    • 0003207346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza, R., and A. Hollingsworth, 2002: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Meteor. Appl., 9, 289-305.
    • (2002) Meteor. Appl , vol.9 , pp. 289-305
    • Buizza, R.1    Hollingsworth, A.2
  • 8
    • 0033403384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.125 , pp. 2887-2908
    • Buizza, R.1    Miller, M.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 9
    • 12944288520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems
    • Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1076-1097
    • Buizza, R.1    Houtekamer, P.L.2    Toth, Z.3    Pellerin, G.4    Wei, M.5    Zhu, Y.6
  • 10
    • 1342287479 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors
    • Coutinho, M. M., B. J. Hoskins, and R. Buizza, 2004: The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 195-209.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.61 , pp. 195-209
    • Coutinho, M.M.1    Hoskins, B.J.2    Buizza, R.3
  • 11
    • 0035475022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation
    • Ebert, E. E., 2001: Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2461-2480.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.129 , pp. 2461-2480
    • Ebert, E.E.1
  • 12
    • 33847361093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system
    • Fronde, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges, 2007: The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 315-333.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.135 , pp. 315-333
    • Fronde, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 13
    • 0033913199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of probabilistic forecasts from bred, singular-vector, and perturbed observation ensembles
    • Hamill, T. M., C. Snyder, and R. E. Morss, 2000: A comparison of probabilistic forecasts from bred, singular-vector, and perturbed observation ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1835-1851.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.128 , pp. 1835-1851
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Snyder, C.2    Morss, R.E.3
  • 14
    • 0029504458 scopus 로고
    • Singular vectors: The effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances
    • Hartmann, D. L., R. Buizza, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: Singular vectors: The effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3885-3894.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.52 , pp. 3885-3894
    • Hartmann, D.L.1    Buizza, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 16
    • 0000461755 scopus 로고
    • Feature tracking on the unit sphere
    • Hodges, K. I., 1995: Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3458-3465.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.123 , pp. 3458-3465
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 17
    • 0032716885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive constraints for feature tracking
    • Hodges, K. I., 1999: Adaptive constraints for feature tracking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1362-1373.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.127 , pp. 1362-1373
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 18
    • 0036326746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks
    • Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2002: New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061.
    • (2002) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.59 , pp. 1041-1061
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 19
    • 27744583241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones
    • Hoskins, B. J., and M. M. Coutinho, 2005: Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 581-601.
    • (2005) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.131 , pp. 581-601
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Coutinho, M.M.2
  • 20
    • 28244438410 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new perspective on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks
    • Hoskins, B. J. and K. I. Hodges, 2005: A new perspective on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. J. Climate, 18, 4108-4129.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 4108-4129
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 21
    • 0022167076 scopus 로고
    • On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps
    • Hoskins, B. J., M. E. McIntyre, and A. W. Robertson, 1985: On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877-946.
    • (1985) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.111 , pp. 877-946
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    McIntyre, M.E.2    Robertson, A.W.3
  • 22
    • 0033854284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The nature of singular vector growth and structure
    • Hoskins, B. J., R. Buizza, and J. Badger, 2000: The nature of singular vector growth and structure. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 1565-1580.
    • (2000) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.126 , pp. 1565-1580
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Buizza, R.2    Badger, J.3
  • 24
    • 22244449317 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the twentieth century using the ECMWF forecasting system. Part II: Ensemble forecasts
    • Jung, T., E. Klinker, and S. Uppala, 2005: Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the twentieth century using the ECMWF forecasting system. Part II: Ensemble forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 12, 111-122.
    • (2005) Meteor. Appl , vol.12 , pp. 111-122
    • Jung, T.1    Klinker, E.2    Uppala, S.3
  • 25
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.102 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 26
    • 0036648324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential improvement to forecasts of two severe storms using targeted observations
    • Leutbecher, M., J. Barkmeijer, T. N. Palmer, and A. J. Thorpe, 2002: Potential improvement to forecasts of two severe storms using targeted observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1641-1670.
    • (2002) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.128 , pp. 1641-1670
    • Leutbecher, M.1    Barkmeijer, J.2    Palmer, T.N.3    Thorpe, A.J.4
  • 27
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 28
    • 0036630603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation
    • Mason, S. J., and N. E. Graham, 2002: Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2145-2166.
    • (2002) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.128 , pp. 2145-2166
    • Mason, S.J.1    Graham, N.E.2
  • 29
    • 27644478671 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The counter-propagating Rossby wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part III: Primitive equation disturbances on the sphere
    • Methven, J., E. Heifetz, B. J. Hoskins, and C. H. Bishop, 2005: The counter-propagating Rossby wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part III: Primitive equation disturbances on the sphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1393-1424.
    • (2005) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.131 , pp. 1393-1424
    • Methven, J.1    Heifetz, E.2    Hoskins, B.J.3    Bishop, C.H.4
  • 31
    • 0027040023 scopus 로고
    • The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system
    • Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.120 , pp. 1747-1763
    • Parrish, D.F.1    Derber, J.C.2
  • 32
    • 1342323287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ERA-40 project plan
    • ECMWF Reanalysis Rep, 63 pp
    • Simmons, A. J., and J. K. Gibson, 2000: The ERA-40 project plan. ECMWF Reanalysis Rep. Series 1, 63 pp.
    • (2000) Series , vol.1
    • Simmons, A.J.1    Gibson, J.K.2
  • 33
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 34
    • 0000593274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 3297-3319
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 35
    • 0141459914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new measure of ensemble performance: Perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA)
    • Wei, M., and Z. Toth, 2003: A new measure of ensemble performance: Perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1549-1565.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.131 , pp. 1549-1565
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.