Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 135, Issue , 2015, Pages 119-132

  Stroeve, Julienne ^a,b   Notz, Dirk ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

Author keywords

Arctic sea ice; Future climate change; Sea ice predictability

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; EARTH (PLANET); GLOBAL WARMING; SEA ICE;

ARCTIC SEA ICE; COMBINED ANALYSIS; FUTURE CLIMATE; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; MODEL EVALUATION; POLICY DECISIONS; PROCESS-BASED MODELING; SEASONAL PREDICTION;

ICE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ICE COVER; SEA ICE;

ARCTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84954089616     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011     Document Type: Review

References (89)

1. Armour K., Eisenman I., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., McCusker K., Bitz C.M. The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38(L16):705. 10.1029/2011GL048 739.
2. Belcher S.E., Hewitt H.T., Beljaars A., Brun E., Fox-Kemper B., Lemieux J.-F., Smith G., Valcke S. Ocean-waves-sea ice-atmosphere interactions. Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, WMO-No. 1156 2015, World Meteorological Organization. G. Brunet, S. Jones, P. Ruti (Eds.).
3. Bitz C.M., Roe G.H. A mechanism for the high rate of sea ice thinning in the Arctic ocean. J. Clim. 2004, 17(18):3623-3632.
4. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., Armour K.C., Bitz C.M., DeWeaver E. Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations. J. Clim. 2011, 24:231-250.
5. Boé J., Hall A., Xin Q. September sea-ice cover in the Arctic ocean projected to vanish by 2100. Nat. Geosci. 2009, 2(5):341-343. 10.1038/ngeo467.
6. Bracegirdle T.J., Stephenson D.B. On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of Arctic warming. J. Clim. 2013, 26(2):669-678. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1.
7. Bushuk M., Giannakis D., Majda A.J. Reemergence mechanisms for North Pacific sea ice revealed through nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis. J. Clim. 2014, 27. (6265-2687).
8. Bushuk M., Giannakis D., Majda A.J. Arctic Sea-ice Reemergence: The Role of Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Variability, J 2015, Climate, (in press). 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00354.1.
9. Cavalieri D.J., Gloersen P., Campbell W.J. Determination of sea ice parameters with the NIMBUS-7 SMMR. J. Geophys. Res. 1984, 89(D4):5355-5369.
10. Cavalieri D.J., Parkinson C.L., Vinnikov K.Y. 30-year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2003, 30. 10.1029/2003GL018031.
11. Collins M., Chandler R.E., Cox P.M., Huthnance J.M., Rougier J., Stephenson D.B. Quantifying future climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2012, 2(6):403-409. 10.1038/nclimate1414.
12. Collins M., Knutti R., et al. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, 2013:1029-1136. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. T. Stocker, D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P. Midgley (Eds.).
13. Comiso J.C. Characteristics of Arctic winter sea ice from satellite multispectral microwave observations. J. Geophys. Res. 1986, 91. 10.1029/JC091iC01p00975.
14. Day J.J., Hawkins E., Tietsche S. Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014, 41(21):7566-7575. 10.1002/2014GL061694.
15. Drobot S.D., Maslanik J.A., Fowler C. A long-range forecast of Arctic summer sea-ice minimum extent. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33(10). 10.1029/2006GL026216.
16. Eisenman I., Wettlaufer J.S. Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2009, 106:28-32.
17. Fetterer F., Knowles K., Meier W., Savoie M. Updated 2009. Sea Ice Index 2002, National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media, Boulder, CO.
18. Ford J.D., Gough W.A., Laidler G.J., MacDonald J., Irngaut C., Qrunnut K. Sea ice, climate change and community vulnerability in northern Foxe Basin, Canada. Clim. Res. 2009, 38. 10.3354/cr00777.
19. Francis J., Chan W., Leathers D.J., Miller J.R. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36. 10.1029/2009Gl037274.
20. Guemas V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., Chevallier M., Day J.J., Déqué M., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Fučkar N.S., Germe A., Hawkins E., Keeley S., Koenigk T., Salas y Mélia D., Tietsche S. A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales: Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2014, 10.1002/qj.2401.
21. Hewitt H.T., Copsey D., Culverwell I.D., Harris C.M., Hill R.S.R., Keen A.B., McLaren A.J., Hunke E.C. Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. Geosci. Model Dev. 2011, 4:223-253. 10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011.
22. Hodson D.L.R., Keeley S.P.E., West A.E., Ridley J., Hawkins E., Hewitt H.T. Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z.
23. Holland M.M., Stroeve J.C. Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 10.1029/2011GL049303.
24. Holland M.M., Bailey D.A., Vavrus S. Inherent sea ice predictability in a rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3. Clim. Dyn. 2010, 10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4.
25. Hunke E.C., Lipscomb W.H., Turner A.K. Sea-ice models for climate study: retrospective and new directions. J. Glaciol. 2010, 56:1162-1172. 10.3189/002214311796406095.
26. Hunke E.C., Lipscomb W.H., Turner A.K., Jeffery N., Elliott S. CICE: the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model Documentation and Software User's Manual Version 5.1 2015, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, US.
27. Ivanova N., et al. Satellite passive microwave measurements of sea ice concentration: an optimal algorithm and challenges. Cryosphere Discuss. 2015, 9. 10.5194/tcd-9-1269-2015.
28. Jahn A., Sterling K., Holland M.M., Kay J.E., Maslanik J.A., Bitz C.M., Bailey D.A., Stroeve J., Hunke E.C., Lipscomb W.H., Pollak D. Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4. J. Clim. 2012, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-0-0201.1.
29. Jaiser R., Dethloff K., Handor D., Rinke A., Cohen J. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus 2012, 64:11595. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595.
30. Jones B.M., Arp C.D., Jorgenson M.T., Hinkel K.M., Schmutz J.A., Flint P.L. Increase in the rate and uniformity of coastline erosion in Arctic Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36. 10.1029/2008GL036205.
31. Kay J.E., Holland M.M., Jahn A. Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38. 10.1029/2011GL048008.
32. Kinnard C., Zdanowicz C.M., Fisher D.A., Isaksson E., de Vernal A., Thompson L.G. Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1450years. Nature 2011, 479:509-512. 10.1038/nature10581.
33. Knutti R., Furrer R., Tebaldi C., Cermak J., Meehl G.A. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J. Clim. 2010, 23(10):2739-2758.
34. Koenigk T., Devasthale A., Karlsson K.G. (2013).: Summer Arctic sea ice albedo in CMIP5 models. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2014, 14:1987-1998. 10.5194/acp-14-1987-2014.
35. Laxon S.W., Giles K.A., Ridout A.L., Wingham D.J., Willatt R., Cullen R., Kwok R., Schweiger A., Zhang J., Haas C., Hendricks S., Krishfield R., Kurtz N., Farrell S., Davidson M. CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40(4):732-737.
36. Li C., Notz D., Tietsche S., Marotzke J. The transient versus the equilibrium response of sea ice to global warming. J. Clim. 2013, 26(15):5624-5636. 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00492.1.
37. Lindsay R. Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record Collection Spanning 1947-2012 2013, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado USA, (http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5D50JXV).
38. Lindsay R., Schweiger A. Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft and satellite observations. Cryosphere 2015, 9. 10.5194/tc-9-269-2015.
39. Lindsay R.W., Zhang J., Schweiger A.J., Steele M.A. Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113. 10.1029/2007JC004259.
40. Liu J.P., Curry J.A., Wang H., Song M., Horton R.M. Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2012, 109:4074-4079. 10.1073/pnas.1114910109.
41. Mahlstein I., Knutti R. September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2°C global warming above present. J. Geophys. Res. 2012, 117. 10.1029/2011JD016709.
42. Maslanik J.A., Fowler C., Stroeve J., Drobot S., Zwally J., Yi D., Emery W. A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: increased potential for rapid extensive sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2007, 34. 10.1029/2007/GL032043.
43. Massonnet F., Fichefet T., Goosse H., Bitz C., Philippon-Berthier G., Holland M., Barriat P.-Y. Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice. Cryosphere 2012, 6. 10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012.
44. McLaren A.J., Banks H.T., Durman C.F., Gregory J.M., Johns T.C., Keen A.B., Ridley J.K., Roberts M.J., Lipscomb W.H., Connolley W.M., Laxon S.W. Evaluation of the Sea Ice Simulation in a new Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Climate Model (HadGEM1). J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 2006, 111. 10.1029/2005JC003033.
45. Meier W.N. Comparison of passive microwave ice concentration algorithm retrievals with AVHRR imagery in the Arctic peripheral seas. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 2005, 43(6):1324-1337.
46. Meier W., Notz D. A note on the accuracy and reliability of satellite-derived passive microwave estimates of sea-ice extent. CliC Arctic Sea Ice Working Group Consensus Document 2010, World Climate Research Program.
47. Meier W.N., Stroeve J., Fetterer F. Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record. Ann. Glaciol. 2007, 46:428-434.
48. Miles W.M., Divine D.V., Furevik T., Jansen E., Moros M., Ogilvie A.E.J. A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014, 41. 10.1002/2013GL058084.
49. Notz D. The future of ice sheets and sea ice: between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2009, 106:20 590-20 595.
50. Notz D. Sea-ice extent and its trend provide limited metrics of model performance. Cryosphere 2014, 8(1):229-243. 10.5194/tc-8-229-2014.
51. Notz D. How well must climate models agree with observations?. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2015, (in press).
52. Notz D., Marotzke J. Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39(8). 10.1029/2012GL051094.
53. Notz D., Haumann A., Haak H., Jungclaus J., Marotzke J. Arctic sea ice as simulated by MPI-ESM. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 2013, 5:173-194. 10.1002/jame.20016.
54. Overland J.E., Wang M., Walsh J.E., Stroeve J. AGU Earth Future 2014, (doi:2013EF000162R).
55. Peterson K.A., Arribas A., Hewitt H.T., Keen A.B., Lea D.J., McLaren A.J. Assessing the forecast skill of Arctic sea ice extent in the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 10.1007/s00382-014-2190-9.
56. Pithan F., Medeiros B., Mauritsen T. Mixed-phase clouds cause climate model biases in Arctic wintertime temperature inversions,. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 43(1-2):289-303. 10.1007/s00382-013-1964-9.
57. Porter D.F., Cassano J.J., Serreze M. Local and large-scale atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice and ocean warming in the WRF model. J. Geophys. Res. 2012, 117.
58. Post E., Bhatt U.S., Bitz C.M., Brodie J.F., Fulton T.L., Hebblewhite M., Kerby J., Kutz S.J., Stirling I., Walker D.A. Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline. Science 2013, 341(6145):519-524. 10.1126/science.1235225.
59. Rampal P., Weiss J., Dubois C., Camplin J.-M. IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline 2011, Geophys. Res, Lett. 10.1029/2011JC007110.
60. Rayner N.A., Parkler D.E., Horton E.B., Folland C.K., Alexander L.V., Rowell D.P., Kent E.C., Kaplan A. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperatures since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108(D14):4407. 10.1029/2002JD002670.
61. Ridley J.K., Lowe J.A., Hewitt H.T. How reversible is sea ice loss?. Cryosphere 2012, 6:193-198.
62. Rigor I.G., Wallace J.M. Variations in the age of Arctic sea-ice and summer sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31. 10.1029/2004GL019492.
63. Rosel A., Kaleschke L., Birnbaum G. Melt ponds on Arctic sea ice determined from MODIS satellite data using an artificial neural network. Cryosphere 2012, 6. 10.5194/tc-6-431-2012.
64. Rothrock D.A., Yu Y., Maykut G.A. Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1999, 26(23):3469-3472.
65. Santer B.D., et al. Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatol. 2008, 28:1703-1722. 10.1002/joc.1756.
66. Schröder D., Feltham D.L., Flocco D., Tsamados M. September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2014.
67. Schweiger A., Lindsay R., Zhang J., Steele M., Stern H., Kwok R. Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume. J. Geophys. Res. 2011, 116. 10.1029/2011JC007084.
68. Screen J.A., Simmonds I. Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40:959-964.
69. Screen J.A., Simmonds I., Deser C., Tomas R. The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J. Clim. 2013, 26:1230-1248.
70. Serreze M.C., Stroeve J. Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting. Phil. Trans. A. 2015, 373. 10.1098/rsta.2014.0159.
71. Serreze M.C., Barrett A.P., Stroeve J.C., Kindig D.N., Holland M.M. The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere 2009, 3:11-19.
72. Serreze M.C., Holland M.M., Stroeve J. Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea ice cover. Science 2007, 16:1533-1536.
73. Sigmond M., Fyfe J.C., Flato G.M., Kharin V.V., Merryfield W.J. Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40:529-534. 10.1002/grl.50129.
74. Snape T.J., Forster P.M. Decline of Arctic sea ice: evaluation and weighting of CMIP5 projections. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 2014, 10.1002/1013/JD020593.
75. Steffen K., Schwieger A. NASA team algorithm for sea ice concentration retrieval from defense meteorological satellite program special sensor microwave/imager: comparison with Landsat satellite imagery. J. Geophys. Res. 1991, 96(C12):21,971-21,988.
76. Stroeve J., Holland M.M., Meier W., Scambos T., Serreze M. Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2007, 34. 10.1029/2007GL029703.
77. Stroeve J.C., Kattsov V., Barrett A., Serreze M., Pavlova T., Holland M., Meier W.N. Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39. 10.1029/2012GL052676.
78. Stroeve J.C., Serreze M.C., Kay J.E., Holland M.M., Meier W.N., Barrett A.P. The Arctic's rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis. Clim. Chang. 2012, 10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1.
79. Stroeve J., Hamilton L.C., Bitz C.M., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E. Predicting September sea ice: ensemble skill of the SEARCH sea ice outlook, 2008-2013. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014, 10.1002/2014GL059388.
80. Stroeve J.C., Barrett A., Serreze M., Schweiger A. Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellite to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness. Cryosphere 2014, 8. 10.5194/tc-8-1-2014.
81. Stroeve J.C., Markus T., Boisvert L., Miller J., Barrett A. Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014, 10.1002/2013GL058951.
82. Stroeve J.C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., Guemas V., Howell S., Massonnet F., Tietsche S. Developing user-oriented seasonal ice forecasts in a changing Arctic. EOS Trans. AGU 2015, 10.1029/2015EO031431.
83. Tietsche S., Day J., Guemas V., Hurlin W., Keeley S., Matei D., Msadek R., Collins M., Hawkins E. Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014, 41(3):1035-1043.
84. Tietsche S., Notz D., Jungclaus J.H., Marotzke J. Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38(L02):707. 10.1029/2010GL045 698.
85. Tietsche S., Notz D., Jungclaus J.H., Marotzke J. Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 41(9-10):2511-2526.
86. Wang M., Overland J.E. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30years - an update from CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 10.1029/2012GL052868.
87. Webster M.A., Rigor I.G., Nghiem S.V., Kurtz N.T., Farrell S.L., Perovich D.K., Sturm M. Interdecadal changes in snow depth on Arctic sea ice. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 2014, 10.1002/2014JC009985.
88. Winton M. Do climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover?. J. Clim. 2011, 24(15):3924-3934. 10.1175/2011JCLI4146.1.
89. Zhang J.L., Rothrock D.A. Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates. Mon. Weather Rev. 2003, 131:845-861.