Uncertainty as knowledge

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 373, Issue 2055, 2015, Pages

  Lewandowsky, Stephan ^a,b   Ballard, Timothy ^a,c   Pancost, Richard D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate mitigation; Scientific uncertainty

Indexed keywords

PHILOSOPHICAL ASPECTS;

CLIMATE MITIGATIONS; CLIMATE SYSTEM; PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS; SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY; SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE; UNCERTAIN CLIMATE;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84944097753     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0462     Document Type: Review

References (64)

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2005 Guidance notes for lead authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on addressing uncertainties. (Technical report.)
2. Narita D. 2012 Managing uncertainties: The making of the IPCC's Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Public Underst. Sci. 21, 84-100. (10.1177/0963662510367710)
3. Freudenburg WR, Gramling R, Davidson DJ. 2008 Scientific certainty argumentation methods (SCAMs): Science and the politics of doubt. Sociol. Inq. 78, 2-38. (10.1111/j. 1475-682X.2008.00219.x)
4. Freudenburg WR, Muselli V. 2013 Reexamining climate change debates: Scientific disagreement or scientific certainty argumentation methods (SCAMs)? Amer. Behav. Sci. 57, 777-795. (10.1177/0002764212458274)
5. Lewandowsky S, Risbey JS, Smithson M, Newell BR, Hunter J. 2014 Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions. Clim. Change 124, 21-37. (10.1007/s10584-014-1082-7)
6. Lewandowsky S, Risbey JS, Smithson M, Newell BR. 2014 Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation. Clim. Change 124, 39-52. (10.1007/ s10584-014-1083-6)
7. Anda J, Golub A, Strukova E. 2009 Economics of climate change under uncertainty: Benefits of flexibility. Energy Policy 37, 1345-1355. (10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.034)
8. Bodman RW, Rayner PJ, Karoly D. 2013 Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 725-729. (10.1038/ NCLIMATE1903)
9. Budescu DV, Broomell S, Por HH. 2009 Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Psychol. Sci. 20, 299-308. (10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02284.x)
10. Cooke RM. 2015 Messaging climate change uncertainty. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 8-10. (10.1038/nclimate2466)
11. Bindoff N, Stott P, AchutaRao K, Allen M, Gillett N, Gutzler D, Zhang X. 2013 Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds TF Stocker et al.), pp. 867-952. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. (www.climatechange2013.org)
12. Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Wehner M. 2013 Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds TF Stocker et al.), pp. 1029-1136. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. (www.climatechange2013.org)
13. Risbey JS, O'Kane TJ. 2011 Sources of knowledge and ignorance in climate research. Clim. Change 108, 755-773. (10.1007/s10584-011-0186-6)
14. Pall P, Aina T, Stone DA, Stott PA, Nozawa T, Hilberts AGJ, Allen MR. 2011 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature 470, 382-385. (10.1038/nature09762)
15. Risbey J, KandlikarM. 2007 Expressions of likelihood and confidence in the IPCC uncertainty assessment process. Clim. Change 85, 19-31. (10.1007/s10584-007-9315-7)
16. Schneider SH, Turner B, Garriga HM. 1998 Imaginable surprise in global change science. J. Risk Res. 1, 165-185. (10.1080/136698798377240)
17. Kennett DJ, Kennett JP. 2006 Early state formation in southern Mesopotamia: Sea levels, shorelines, and climate change. J. Island Coast. Archaeol. 1, 67-99. (10.1080/1556489060 0586283)
18. Crutzen P. 2006 The 'Anthropocene'. In Earth system science in the Anthropocene (eds E Ehlers, T Krafft), pp. 13-18. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
19. Rockström J et al. 2009 Planetary boundaries: Fxploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol. Soc. 14, 32.
20. Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson A, Chapin FS, Lambin EF, Foley JA. 2009 A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472-475. (10.1038/461472a)
21. Steffen W, Richardson K, Rockström J, Cornell SE, Fetzer I, Bennett EM, Sörlin S. 2015 Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347, 1259855. (10.1126/science.1259855)
22. Risbey JS. 2006 Some dangers of 'dangerous' climate change. Clim. Policy 6, 527-536. (10.1080/14693062.2006.9685618)
23. Freeman MC, Wagner G, Zeckhauser RJ. 2015 Climate sensitivity uncertainty: When is good news bad? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20150092. (10.1098/rsta.2015.0092)
24. Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SC, Frieler K, Knutti R, Allen MR. 2009 Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2?C. Nature 458, 1158-1162. (10.1038/nature08017)
25. Kennett DJ, Marwan N. 2015 Climatic volatility, agricultural uncertainty, and the formation, consolidation and breakdown of preindustrial agrarian states. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140458. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0458)
26. Freeman MC, Groom B, Zeckhauser RJ. 2015 Better predictions, better allocations: Scientific advances and adaptation to climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20150122. (10.1098/ rsta.2015.0122)
27. Bentley RA, O'Brien MJ. 2015 Collective behaviour, uncertainty and environmental change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140461. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0461)
28. Antilla L. 2010 Self-censorship and science: A geographical review of media coverage of climate tipping points. Public Underst. Sci. 19, 240-256. (10.1177/0963662508094099)
29. Boykoff MT. 2013 Public enemy no. 1? Understanding media representations of outlier views on climate change. Amer. Behav. Sci. 57, 796-817. (10.1177/0002764213476846)
30. Lewandowsky S, Stritzke WGK, Freund AM, Oberauer K, Krueger JI. 2013 Misinformation, disinformation, and violent conflict: From Iraq and the 'War on Terror' to future threats to peace. Amer. Psychol. 68, 487-501. (10.1037/a0034515)
31. Hamilton LC. 2015 Polar facts in the age of polarization. Polar Geogr. 38, 89-106. (10.1080/ 1088937X.2015.1051158)
32. Lewandowsky S, Oberauer K, Gignac GE. 2013 NASA faked the moon landing-therefore (climate) science is a hoax. An anatomy of the motivated rejection of science. Psychol. Sci. 24, 622-633. (10.1177/0956797612457686)
33. Lewandowsky S, Gignac GE, Oberauer K. 2013 The role of conspiracist ideation and worldviews in predicting rejection of science. PLoS ONE 8, e75637. (10.1371/ journal.pone.0075637)
34. McCright AM, Dunlap RE. 2011 The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public's views of global warming, 2001-2010. Sociol. Q. 52, 155-194. (10.1111/j.1533-8525.2011.01198.x)
35. Parker WS, Risbey JS. 2015 False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140453. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0453)
36. Dansgaard W, Johnsen SJ, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Gundestrup NS, Hammer CU, Bond G. 1993 Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 364, 218-220. (10.1038/364218a0)
37. Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni F. 2008 Proxybased reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 13 252-13 257. (10.1073/pnas.08057 21105)
38. Risbey JS, Lewandowsky S, Hunter JR, Monselesan DP. 2015 Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140463. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0463)
39. Oreskes N. 2015 The fact of uncertainty, the uncertainty of facts and the cultural resonance of doubt. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140455. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0455)
40. Michaels D. 2008 Doubt is their product: How industry's assault on science threatens your health. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
41. Proctor RN. 2011 Golden holocaust: Origins of the cigarette catastrophe and the case for abolition. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
42. Lench HC, Smallman R, Darbor KE, Bench SW. 2014 Motivated perception of probabilistic information. Cognition 133, 429-442. (10.1016/j.cognition.2014.08.001)
43. Grupe DW, Nitschke JB. 2011 Uncertainty is associated with biased expectancies and heightened responses to aversion. Emotion 11, 413-424. (10.1037/a0022583)
44. Mueller JS, Melwani S, Goncalo JA. 2012 The bias against creativity: Why people desire but reject creative ideas. Psychol. Sci. 23, 13-17. (10.1177/0956797611421018)
45. Raihani N, Aitken D. 2011 Uncertainty, rationality and cooperation in the context of climate change. Clim. Change 108, 47-55. (10.1007/s10584-010-0014-4)
46. Milinski M, Sommerfeld RD, Krambeck HJ, Reed FA, Marotzke J. 2008 The collective-risk social dilemma and the prevention of simulated dangerous climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 2291-2294. (10.1073/pnas.0709546105)
47. Barrett S, Dannenberg A. 2012 Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 17 372-17 376. (10.1073/pnas.1208417109)
48. Barrett S. 2013 Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 66, 235-250. (10.1016/j.jeem.2012.12.004)
49. Hsiang SM, Meng KC, Cane MA. 2011 Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature 476, 438-441. (10.1038/nature10311)
50. Hsiang SM, Burke M, Miguel E. 2013 Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 341, 1235367. (10.1126/science.1235367)
51. Hsiang SM, Burke M. 2014 Climate, conflict, and social stability: What does the evidence say? Clim. Change 123, 39-55. (10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3)
52. Hsiang S, Burke M, Miguel E. 2014 Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: Reply to Buhaug et al. Clim. Change 127, 399-405. (10.1007/s10584-014-1276-z)
53. Kennett DJ, Breitenbach SFM, Aquino VV, Asmerom Y, Awe J, Baldini JUL, Haug GH. 2012 Development and disintegration of Maya political systems in response to climate change. Science 338, 788-791. (10.1126/science.1226299)
54. Hogg MA, Meehan C, Farquharson J. 2010 The solace of radicalism: Self-uncertainty and group identification in the face of threat. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 46, 1061-1066. (10.1016/j. jesp.2010.05.005)
55. Hogg MA. 2014 From uncertainty to extremism: Social categorization and identity processes. Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci. 23, 338-342. (10.1177/0963721414540168)
56. McGregor I, Haji R, Nash KA, Teper R. 2008 Religious zeal and the uncertain self. Basic Appl. Soc. Psychol. 30, 183-188. (10.1080/01973530802209251)
57. Leidner B, Tropp LR, Lickel B. 2013 Bringing science to bear-on peace, not war: Flaborating on psychology's potential to promote peace. Amer. Psychol. 68, 514-526. (10.1037/a0032846)
58. Fischhoff B. 2011 Applying the science of communication to the communication of science. Clim. Change 108, 701-705. (10.1007/s10584-011-0183-9)
59. Ballard T, Lewandowsky S. 2015 When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain climate future. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140464. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)
60. Taylor AL, Dessai S, Bruine de Bruin W. 2015 Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140454. (10.1098/rsta. 2014.0454)
61. Ellsberg D. 1961 Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. Q. J. Econ. 75, 643-669. (10.2307/ 1884324)
62. Lorenz S, Dessai S, Forster PM, Paavola J. 2015 Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140457. (10.1098/rsta.2014.0457)
63. Hansen J, Lacis A, Rind D, Russell G, Stone P, Fung I, Lerner J. 1984 Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. Clim. Process. Clim. Sensitivity 5, 130-163. (10.1029/GM029p0130)
64. Roe GH, Baker MB. 2007 Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science 318, 629-632. (10.1126/science.1144735)