Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 373, Issue 2055, 2015, Pages

  Risbey, James S ^a   Lewandowsky, Stephan ^b   Hunter, John R ^c   Monselesan, Didier P ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate futures; Decadal trends; Transient response

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; TRANSIENT ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE FUTURES; DECADAL TRENDS; GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE; GREENHOUSE FORCING; GREENHOUSE WARMING; NATURAL VARIATION; NATURALLY OCCURRING; TEMPERATURE CHANGES;

GREENHOUSES;

EID: 84944097488     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0463     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Hansen J, Takahashi T. 1984 Climate processes and climate sensitivity. Geophysical Monograph Series.Washington, DC: AGU. (10.1029/GM029)
2. Jones PD, New M, Parker D, Martin S, Rigor I. 1999 Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys. 37, 173-199. (10.1029/1999RG900002)
3. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K. 2010 Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, 1-29. (10.1029/2010RG000345)
4. 2 and climate: Importance of the transient response. J. Geophys. Res. 86, 3135-3147. (10.1029/JC086iC04p03135)
5. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Katenberg A, Maskell K. 1996 Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, 572pp. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
6. Risbey J. 2015 Free and forced climate variations. Nature 517, 562-563. (10.1038/517562a)
7. Stocker T et al. 2013 Technical summary. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 33-115. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press.
8. Annan J. 2005 Betting on climate change. See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archi ves/2005/06/betting-on-climate-change/.
9. Curry J. 2015 'Warmest year', 'pause', and all that. See http://judithcurry.com/2015/ 01/16/warmest-year-pause-and-all-that/.
10. Newman M. 2014 We're ill-prepared for the iceman cometh. The Australian, 14 August 2014, p. 21.
11. Jones C. 2014 No sure bets in the climate debate. The Australian, 23 April 2014, p. 18.
12. Risbey J, Lewandowsky S, Langlais C, Monselesan D, O'Kane T, Oreskes N. 2014 Wellestimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 835-840. (10.1038/nclimate2310)
13. Marotzke J, Forster P. 2015 Forcing, feedback, and internal variability in global temperature trends. Nature 517, 565-570. (10.1038/nature14117)
14. Risbey JS, Kandlikar M, Graetz D. 1999 Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 4, 137-165. (10.1023/A:1009636607038)
15. Arguez A, Vose R. 2011 The definition of the standard WMO climate normal: The key to deriving alternative climate normals. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 699-704. (10.1175/ 2010BAMS2955.1)
16. Fidalgo P. 2015 Skeptics dare Heartland Institute to take up $25,000 climate challenge. See http://bit.ly/1dGtfmo.
17. Hirahara S, Ishii M, Fukuda Y. 2014 Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. J. Clim. 27, 57-75. (10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1)
18. Cowtan K,Way R. 2014 Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140, 1935-1944. (10.1002/qj.2297)
19. Monselesan D, O'Kane T, Risbey J, Church J. 2015 Internal climate memory in observations and models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 1-11. (10.1002/2014GL062453)
20. Mantua N, Hare S. 2002 The pacific decadal oscillation. J. Oceanogr. 58, 35-44. (10.1023/ A:1015820616384)
21. Elsner JB, Tsonis AA. 1996 Singular spectrum analysis: A new tool in time series analysis. NewYork, NY: Springer.
22. Mann ME et al. 2003 On past temperatures and anomalous late 20th century warmth. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 84, 1-2. (10.1029/2003EO270003)
23. Lean J, Rind D. 2008 How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, 1-6. (10.1029/2008GL034864)
24. Hansen J, Russell G, Lacis A, Fung I, Rind D, Stone P. 1985 Climate response times: Dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing. Science 229, 857-859. (10.1126/ science.229.4716.857)
25. Risbey J, O'Kane T, Monselesan D, Franke C, Horenko I. 2015 Metastability of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection modes. J. Atmos. Sci. 72, 35-54. (10.1175/JAS-D-14-0020.1)
26. O'Kane T, Risbey J, Franzke C, Horenko I, Monselesan D. 2013 Changes in the metastability of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere circulation and the utility of non-stationary cluster analysis and split flow blocking indices as diagnostic tools. J. Atmos. Sci. 70, 824-842. (10.1175/JAS-D-12-028.1)
27. Muir L, Brown J, Risbey J, Wijffels S, Sen Gupta A. 2013 Determining the time of emergence of the climate change signal at regional scales. CAWCR Res. Lett. 10, 8-19.
28. Lewandowsky S, Oreskes N, Risbey J, Newell B, Smithson M. 2015 Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community. Glob. Environ. Change 33, 1-13. (10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.013)
29. Santer B et al. 2011 Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale. J. Geophys. Res. 116, 1984-2012. (10.1029/2011JD016263)
30. Taylor K, Stouffer R, Meehl G. 2012 An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498. (10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1)
31. Moss R et al. 2010 The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747-756. (10.1038/nature08823)
32. Maher N, Sen Gupta A, England M. 2014 Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 5978-5986. (10.1002/2014GL060527)
33. Stenchikov G, Delworth T, Ramaswamy V, Stouffer R, Wittenbery A, Zeng F. 2009 Volcanic signals in oceans. J. Geophys. Res. 114, 1984-2012. (10.1029/2008JD011673)