Imaginable surprise in global change science

Journal of Risk Research

Volumn 1, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 165-185

  Schneider, Stephen H ^a   Turner, B L ^b   Garriga, Holly Morehouse ^b  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b CLARK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0003170435     PISSN: 13669877     EISSN: 14664461     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/136698798377240     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Ayyub, B.M., Gupta, M.M. and Kanal, L.N. (eds) (1992) Analysis and Management of Uncertainty, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishers.
2. Bogen, K.T. and Spear, R.C. (1987) Integrating uncertainty and interindividual variability in environmental risk assessment, Risk Analysis 7, 427-36.
3. Bonissone, P.P. and Tong, R.M. (1985) Reasoning with uncertainty in expert systems, International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, 22, 241-50.
4. Broecker, W.S. (1994) Massive iceberg discharges as triggers for global climate change, Nature, 372, 421-24.
5. Brooks, H. (1986) The typology of surprises in technology, institutions, and development, in W.C. Clark and R.E. Munn, (eds) (1986) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, pp. 325-48, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
6. Brown, P. (1997) Stewardship of climate: an editorial for Climatic Change, 37, 329-34.
7. Brunner, R.D. (1996) Policy and global change research: a modest proposal, Climatic Change 32, 121-47.
8. Buttenfield, B. and Beard, K. (1991) Visualizing the data quality of spatial information, Proceedings, AUTO-CARTO 10. 25-28 March 1991, Baltimore, MD, vol. 6, pp. 423-427.
9. Casti, J. L. (1994) Complexification: Explaining a Paradoxical World through the Science of Surprise, New York: Harper Collins.
10. Clark, W.C. (1988) Visions of the 21st Century: conventional wisdom and other surprises in the global interactions of population, technology, and environment, in K.T. Newton Schweitzer and Voyer, J.-P. (eds) Perspective 2000: Proceedings of a Conference Sponsored by the Economic Council of Canada, Economic Council of Canada, December 1988.
11. Clark, W.C. and Munn, R.E. (eds) (1986) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
12. Clemen, R.T. (1991) Making Hard Decisions:An introduction to Decision Analysis, Boston: PWS- Kent.
13. Cohen, J. and Stewart, I. (1994) The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World, New York: Viking.
14. Darmstadter, J. and Toman, M.A. (eds) (1993a) Assessing surprises and nonlinearities in greenhouse warming, Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Workshop, Washington, DC, Resources for the Future.
15. Darmstadter, J. and Toman, M.A. (eds) (1993b) Nonlinearities and surprises in climate change: an introduction and overview, in Assessing Surprise and Nonlinearities in Greenhouse Warming. Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Workshop, March 1992, Washington, DC, Resources for the Future, pp. 1-10.
16. Douglas, M. and Wildavsky, A. (1982) Risk and Culture, Berkeley: UC Press.
17. Dovers, S.R. and Handmer, J. (1995) Ignorance, the precautionary principle, and sustainability, Ambio, 24, 92-7.
18. Edwards, P.N. (1996) Global comprehensive models in politics and policymaking. Editorial essay, Climatic Change, 32, 149-61.
19. Faber, M., Manstetten, R. and Proops, J.L.R. (1992) Humankind and the environment: an anatomy of surprise and ignorance, Environmental Values, 1, 217-41.
20. Farman, J.C., Gardiner, B.G. and Shanklin, J.D. (1985) Larger losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction, Nature, 315, 207-10.
21. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. and Lichtenstein, S. (1982) Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk, The American Statistician, 36, 240-55.
22. Functowicz, S.O. and Ravetz, J.R. (1990) Uncertainty and Quality in Knowledge for Policy, Dordrecht: Kluwer.
23. Guba, E.G. (ed.) (1990) The Paradigm Dialog, Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
24. Hassol, S.J. and Katzenberger, J. (eds) (1997) Elements of Change 1996, pp. 268, Aspen, Colorado, Aspen Global Change Institute.
25. Holling, C.S. (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems, Annual Review of Ecology and System atics, 4, 1-23.
26. Holling, C.S. (1986) The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change, in W.C. Clark and R.E. Munn, (eds) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, pp. 292-317, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press for the International Institute for Applied Systems A nalysis.
27. IPCC (1996) Climate Change 1995 - The Science of Climate Change: The Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group I, J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg and K. Maskell (eds) Cambridge, Cambridge U niversity Press.
28. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. and Tversky, A. (1982) Judgment Under Uncertainty, New York: Cambridge University Press.
29. Kasperson, R.E., Renn, O., Slovic, P., Brown, H., Emel, J., Goble, R., Kasperson, J.X. and Ratick, S.J. (1988) The social amplification of risk: a conceptual framework, Risk Analysis, 8, 177-87.
30. Kates, R.W. (1985) Success, strain and surprise, Issues in Science and Technology, 2, 46-58.
31. Kates, R.W. and Clark, W.C. (1996) Environmental surprise: expecting the unexpected? Environment, 38, 28-34.
32. Lorenz, E.N. (1969) The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion, Tellus, 21, 289-307.
33. MacEachren, A. (1992) Visualizing uncertain information, Cartographic Perspectives, (13), 10-19.
34. Morgan, M. G., Henrion, M. and Small, M. (1990) Uncertainty:A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy A nalysis, New York: Cambridge University Press.
35. Morgan, M. G. and Keith, D.W. (1995) Subjective judgments by climate experts, Environmental Science and Technology, 29, 468A-76A.
36. Moser, S. (1997) Mapping the territory of uncertainty and ignorance: broadening current assessment and policy approaches to sea-level rise. Ph.D. Dissertation, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA.
37. Moss, R. and Schneider, S.H. (1997) Characterizing and communicating scientific uncertainty: moving ahead from the IPCC second assessment, in S.J. Hassol and J. Katzenberger, (eds) Elements of Change, 1996, pp. 90-135, Aspen, CO, Aspen Global Change Institute.
38. Myers, N. and Simon, J. (1995) Scarcity or Abundance: A Debate on the Environment, New York: Norton.
39. National Research Council (1992) Policy implications of greenhouse warming: mitigation, adaptation, and the science base. Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhou se W arming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
40. Nordhaus, W.D. (1993) Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
41. Nordhaus, W.D. (1991) To slow or not to slow: the economics of the greenhouse effect, The Economic Journal 101, 920-37.
42. O’Riordan, T. and Cameron, J. (1994) The history and contemporary significance of the precautionary principle, in T. O ’Riordan and Rayner, S. (eds) Interpreting the Precautionary Principle, pp. 12-30, London, Earthscan Publications.
43. O’Riordan, T. and Rayner, S. (1991) Risk management for global environmental change, Global Environmental Change 1, 91-108.
44. Raiffa, H. (1968) Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
45. Ravetz, J.R. (1986) Usable knowledge, usable ignorance: incomplete science with policy implications, in W.C. Clark and R.E. Munn (eds) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, pp. 415-432, New York, Cambridge University Press.
46. Robinson, A.L. (1982) Physicists try to find order in chaos, Science, 218, 554-57.
47. Rowe, W. (1994) Understanding uncertainty, Risk Analysis, 14, 743-50.
48. Root, T.L. and Schneider, S.H. (1995) Ecology and climate: research strategies and implications, Science 269, 334-41.
49. Schneider, S.H., (1979) Comparative risk assessment of energy systems, Energy 4, 919-31.
50. Schneider, S.H. (1988) The whole earth dialogue, Issues in Science and Technology 4, 93-9.
51. Schneider, S.H. (1990) Global Warming: Are we Entering the Greenhouse Century? New York: Vintage.
52. Schneider, S.H. (1994) Detecting climatic change signals: Are there any ‘fingerprints’? Science, 263, 341-47.
53. Schneider, S.H. (1997) Laboratory Earth. The Planetary Gamble We Can’t Afford to Lose, New York: Basic Books.
54. Schneider, S.H. and Turner, B.L. (1995) Anticipating global change surprise, in S.J. Hassol and J. Katzenberger, (eds) Elements of Change 1994, pp. 130-45, Aspen, CO, Aspen Global Change Institute.
55. Smithson, M. (1988) Ignorance and Uncertainty:Emerging Paradigms, New York: Springer.
56. Svedin, U. and Aniansson, B. (eds) (1987) Surprising Futures: Notes from an International Workshop on Long-Term Development, Fruberg Manor, Sweden, January 1986, Stockholm, Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research.
57. Timmerman, P. (1986) Mythology and surprise in the sustainable development of the biosphere, in W. C. Clark and R. E. Munn (eds) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, pp. 436-53, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press for the International Institute for Applied Systems A nalysis.
58. Tonn, B. (1991) Research policy and review 34: the development of ideas of uncertainty representation, Environment and Planning A, 23, 783-812.
59. Toth, F.L., E. Hizsnyik and Clark, W.C. (eds) (1989) Scenarios of a Critical Review, RR 89-4. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
60. Turner, B.L, II. (1991) Thoughts on linking the physical and human sciences in the study of global environmental change, Research and Exploration 7, 133-35.
61. Weinberg, A. (1972) Science and trans-science, Minerva 10, 209-22.
62. Wynne, B. (1980) Technology, risk, and participation: on the social treatment of uncertainty. in J. Conrad (ed.), Society, Technology, and Risk, pp. 167-202, New York, Academic Press.
63. Wynne, B. (1987) Uncertainty - technical and social, in H. Brooks and C.L. Cooper (eds) Science for Public Policy, pp. 95-113, New York, Pergamon Press.
64. Wynne, B. (1992) Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm, Global Environmental Change, 111-27.
65. Yager, R.R. (1992) Decision making under Dempster-Shafer uncertainty, International Journal of General Systems 20, 233-45.
66. Yohe, G.W. (1991) Uncertainty, climate change, and the economic value of information: an economic methodology for evaluating the timing and relative efficacy of alternative response to climate change with application to protecting developed property from greenhouse induced sea level rise, Policy Science 24, 245-69.
67. Yohe, G.W. (1993) Sorting our facts and uncertainties in economic response to the physical effects of global climate change, assessing surprises and nonlinearities in greenhouse warming. Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Workshop March 1992 at Resources for the Future, Washington, DC. J. Darmstadter and M.A. Toman (eds). pp. 109-32. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.
68. Zadeh, L.A. (1965) Fuzzy sets, information and control 8, 338-53.
69. Zadeh, L.A. (1990) The birth and evolution of fuzzy logic, International Journal of General Systems 17, 95-105.