Twenty-five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: Nonclimatic factors of change

Global Change Biology

Volumn 21, Issue 9, 2015, Pages 3347-3355

  Péron, Guillaume ^a   Altwegg, Res ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Biodiversity; Bush encroachment; Citizen science; Climate change; Conservation planning; Occupancy models; Pesticide accumulation; South Africa; Species richness

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION PLANNING; PASSERINE; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PROBABILITY; SPECIES RICHNESS;

LESOTHO; SWAZILAND;

AVES; PASSERIFORMES;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; BIODIVERSITY; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; LESOTHO; PASSERIFORMES; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASON; SOUTH AFRICA; SWAZILAND; TIME FACTOR;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION; ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; LESOTHO; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PASSERIFORMES; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASONS; SOUTH AFRICA; SWAZILAND; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84942294568     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12909     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Achard F, Eva HD, Stibig H-J, Mayaux P, Gallego J, Richards T, Malingreau J-P (2002) Determination of deforestation rates of the world's humid tropical forests. Science, 297, 999-1002.
2. Altwegg R, Wheeler M, Erni B (2008) Climate and the range dynamics of species with imperfect detection. Biology letters, 4, 581-584.
3. Azaele S, Cornell S, Kunin W (2012) Downscaling species occupancy from coarse spatial scales. Ecological Applications, 22, 1004-1014.
4. Beale CM, Lennon JJ, Gimona A (2008) Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 14908-14912.
5. Bled F, Nichols JD, Altwegg R (2013) Dynamic occupancy models for analyzing species' range dynamics across large geographic scales. Ecology and evolution, 3, 4896-4909.
6. Bonney R, Shirk JL, Phillips TB, Wiggins A, Ballard HL, Miller-Rushing AJ, Parrish JK (2014) Next steps for citizen science. Science, 343, 1436-1437.
7. Broms KM, Johnson DS, Altwegg R, Conquest LL (2014) Spatial occupancy models applied to atlas data show Southern Ground Hornbills strongly depend on protected areas. Ecological Applications, 24, 363-374.
8. Buitenwerf R, Bond WJ, Stevens N, Trollope WSW (2012) Increased tree densities in South African savannas: >50 years of data suggests CO2 as a driver. Global Change Biology, 18, 675-684.
9. Chazdon RL, Letcher SG, van Breugel M, Martínez-Ramos M, Bongers F, Finegan B (2007) Rates of change in tree communities of secondary Neotropical forests following major disturbances. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological sciences, 362, 273-289.
10. Dickinson JL, Zuckerberg B, Bonter DN (2010) Citizen science as an ecological research tool: challenges and benefits. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 41, 149-172.
11. Donald P, Green RE, Heath MF (2001) Agricultural intensification and the collapse of Europe's farmland bird populations. Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 268, 25-29.
12. Foley JA, Defries R, Asner GP et al. (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science, 309, 570-574.
13. Hallmann CA, Foppen RPB, van Turnhout CAM, de Kroon H, Jongejans E (2014) Declines in insectivorous birds are associated with high neonicotinoid concentrations. Nature, 511, 341-343.
14. Harrison JA, Allan DG, Underhill LG, Herremans M, Tree AJ, Parker V, Brown CJ (eds.) (1997) The Atlas of Southern African Birds. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg.
15. Hart JD, Milsom TP, Fisher G, Wilkins V, Moreby SJ, Murray AWA, Robertson PA (2006) The relationship between yellowhammer breeding performance, arthropod abundance and insecticide applications on arable farmland. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 81-91.
16. Hockey PAR, Dean WRJ, Ryan PG (2005) Roberts Birds of Southern Africa, 7th edn. The Trustees of the John Voelcker Bird Book Fund, Cape Town.
17. Hockey PAR, Sirami C, Ridley AR, Midgley GF, Babiker HA (2011) Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution. Diversity and Distributions, 17, 254-261.
18. Hofmeyr SD, Symes CT, Underhill LG (2014) Secretarybird sagittarius serpentarius population trends and ecology: insights from South African citizen science data (ed Slotow R). PLoS One, 9, e96772.
19. Huntley B, Altwegg R, Barnard P, Collingham YC, Hole DG (2012) Modelling relationships between species spatial abundance patterns and climate. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 668-681.
20. La Sorte FA, Jetz W (2012) Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change. The Journal of Animal Ecology, 81, 914-925.
21. Loftie-Eaton M (2014) Geographic range dynamics of South Africa's bird species. MSc thesis, University of Cape Town.
22. MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Hines JE, Knutson MG, Franklin AB (2003) Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology, 84, 2200-2207.
23. MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Royle JA, Pollock KH, Bailey LL, Hines JE (2006) Occupancy Estimation and Modelling. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
24. Mineau P, Whiteside M (2013) Pesticide acute toxicity is a better correlate of U.S. grassland bird declines than agricultural intensification. (ed Clarke RH). PLoS One, 8, e57457.
25. Niedertscheider M, Gingrich S, Erb K-H (2012) Changes in land use in South Africa between 1961 and 2006: an integrated socio-ecological analysis based on the human appropriation of net primary production framework. Regional Environmental Change, 12, 715-727.
26. Ord K (1975) Estimation methods for models of spatial interaction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 349, 120-126.
27. Parr CL, Gray EF, Bond WJ (2012) Cascading biodiversity and functional consequences of a global change-induced biome switch. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 493-503.
28. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
29. Péron G, Altwegg R (2015) The abundant centre syndrome and species distributions: insights from closely related species pairs in southern Africa. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 215-225.
30. Robertson A, Simmons RE, Jarvis AM, Brown CJ (1995) Can bird atlas data be used to estimate population size? A case study using Namibian endemics. Biological Conservation, 71, 87-95.
31. Royle JA, Nichols JD (2003) Estimating abundance from repeated presence-absence data or point counts. Ecology, 84, 777-790.
32. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR (2003) Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 18, 648-656.
33. Seymour CL, Dean WRJ (2009) The influence of changes in habitat structure on the species composition of bird assemblages in the southern Kalahari. Austral Ecology, 35, 581-592.
34. Sirami C, Monadjem A (2012) Changes in bird communities in Swaziland savannas between 1998 and 2008 owing to shrub encroachment. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 390-400.
35. Sirami C, Brotons L, Martin J-L (2007) Vegetation and songbird response to land abandonment: from landscape to census plot. Diversity & Distributions, 13, 42-52.
36. Smit B, Harding CT, Hockey PAR, McKechnie AE (2013) Adaptive thermoregulation during summer in two populations of an arid-zone passerine. Ecology, 94, 1142-1154.
37. Thuiller W, Araújo MB, Lavorel S (2004) Do we need land-cover data to model species distributions in Europe? Journal of Biogeography, 31, 353-361.
38. Vitousek PM (1997) Human domination of earth's ecosystems. Science, 277, 494-499.
39. Wichmann MC, Jeltsch F, Dean WRJ, Moloney KA, Wissel C (2003) Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savanna. Oikos, 102, 186-202.
40. Wigley BJ, Bond WJ, Hoffman MT (2010) Thicket expansion in a South African savanna under divergent land use: local vs. global drivers? Global Change Biology, 16, 964-976.