Climate and the range dynamics of species with imperfect detection

Biology Letters

Volumn 4, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 581-584

  Altwegg, Res ^a,b   Wheeler, Marius ^a   Erni, Birgit ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^b SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY INSTITUTE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Bostrychia hagedash; Colonization; Detection probability; Extinction; Global change; Occupancy model

Indexed keywords

BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLONIZATION; EXTINCTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; RANGE EXPANSION; SPECIES RICHNESS;

ARTICLE; BIRD; CLIMATE; COMMUNITY DYNAMICS; EXPERIMENTAL MODEL; GLOBAL CHANGE; ORGANISM COLONY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; SOUTH AFRICA; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; SPECIES EXTINCTION;

AFRICA; SOUTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

AVES; BOSTRYCHIA HAGEDASH; THRESKIORNITHIDAE;

EID: 51549106974     PISSN: 17449561     EISSN: 1744957X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0051     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Broennimann, O., Treier, U. A., Müller-Schärer, H., Thuiller, W., Peterson, A. T. & Guisan, A. 2007 Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. Ecol. Lett. 10, 701-709. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01060.x)
2. Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R. 2002 Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. New York, NY: Springer.
3. Dorazio, R. M., Royle, J. A., Söderström, B. & Glimskär, A. 2006 Estimating species richness and accumulation by modeling species occurrence and detectability. Ecology 87, 842-854. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[842:ESRAAB]2.0.CO;2)
4. Eraud, C., Boutin, J. M., Roux, D. & Faivre, B. 2007 Spatial dynamics of an invasive bird species assessed using robust design occupancy analysis: the case of the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in France. J. Biogeogr. 34, 1077-1086. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01673. x)
5. Gimenez, O., Covas, R., Brown, C. R., Anderson, M. D., Brown, M. B. & Lenormand, T. 2006 Nonparametric estimation of natural selection on a quantitative trait using mark-recapture data. Evolution 60, 460-466.
6. Greenwood, J. J. D. 2007 Citizens, science and bird conservation. J. Ornithol. 148, S77-S124. (doi:10.1007/s10336-007-0239-9)
7. Guisan, A. & Thuiller, W. 2005 Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett. 8, 993-1009. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x)
8. Hines, J. E. 2006 PRESENCE2 - software to estimate patch occupancy and related parameters. Reston, VA: USGS - PWRC.
9. Huntley, B., Collingham, Y. C., Green, R. E., Hilton, G. M., Rahbek, C. & Willis, S. G. 2006 Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds. Ibis 148, 8-28. (doi:10.1111/j.1474-919X. 2006.00523.x)
10. Latimer, A. M., Wu, S. S., Gelfand, A. E. & Silander, J. A. 2006 Building statistical models to analyze species distributions. Ecol. Appl. 16, 33-50. (doi:10.1890/04-0609)
11. Macdonald, I. A. W., Richardson, D. M. & Powrie, F. J. 1986 Range expansion of the hadeda ibis Bostrychia hagedash in southern Africa. S. Afr. J. Zool. 21, 331-342.
12. MacKenzie, D. I., Nichols, J. D., Lachman, G. B., Droege, S. R., Royle, J. A. & Langtimm, C. A. 2002 Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology 83, 2248-2255.
13. MacKenzie, D. I., Nichols, J. D., Hines, J. E., Knutson, M. G. & Franklin, A. B. 2003 Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology 84, 2200-2207. (doi:10.1890/02-3090)
14. MacKenzie, D. I., Nichols, J. D., Royle, J. A., Pollock, K. H., Bailey, L. L. & Hines, J. E. 2006 Occupancy estimation and modeling: inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Academic Press.
15. McArdle, B. H. 1990 When are rare species not there? Oikos 57, 276-277. (doi:10.2307/3565950)
16. Royle, J. A. 2004 N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts. Biometrics 60, 108-115. (doi:10.1111/j.0006-341X.2004.00142.x)
17. Royle, J. A. & Nichols, J. D. 2003 Estimating abundance from repeated presence-absence data or point counts. Ecology 84, 777-790. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0777:EAFRPA]2.0.CO;2)
18. Thomas, C. D. et al. 2004 Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145-148. (doi:10.1038/nature02121)
19. White, G. C. & Burnham, K. P. 1999 Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study 46, S120-S139.
20. Wintle, B. A., Kavanagh, R. P., McCarthy, M. A. & Burgman, M. A. 2005 Estimating and dealing with detectability in occupancy surveys for forest owls and arboreal marsupials. J. Wildl. Manage. 69, 905-917. (doi:10.2193/0022-541X(2005)069[0905:EADWDI]2.0.CO;2)