Forest conversion can help to mitigate impacts of climate change on common forest birds

Annals of Forest Science

Volumn 72, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 335-348

  Gottschalk, Thomas K ^a   Reiners, Tobias E ^b  

^a University of Applied Forest Sciences   (Germany)

^b SENCKENBERG RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Germany)

Author keywords

Bird population size; Coniferous forest; Germany; High resolution modeling

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONIFEROUS FOREST; DECIDUOUS FOREST; FORECASTING METHOD; FOREST COVER; GENERALIST; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; MODEL TEST; POPULATION SIZE; VULNERABILITY;

GERMANY;

AVES;

EID: 84928794636     PISSN: 12864560     EISSN: 1297966X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13595-014-0455-4     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Barbet-Massin M, Thuiller W, Jiguet F (2010) How much do we overestimate future local extinction rates when restricting the range of occurrence data in climate suitability models? Ecography 33:878–886
2. Beinhofer B, Knoke T (2010) Financially advantageous proportion of Douglas fir in a tree species portfolio. Forstarchiv 81:255–265
3. BirdLife International (2004) Birds in Europe: population estimates, trends and conservation status, Cambridge
4. BMELV—Bundesministerium für Ernährung LuV (2005) Die zweite Bundeswaldinventur. Der Inventurbericht, Bonn
5. Bohn U (2011) Karte der potentiellen natürlichen Vegetation Deutschlands, 1:500.000. Bundesamt für Naturschutz, Bonn
6. Bolte A, Degen B (2010) Forest adaptation to climate change—options and limitations. Landbauforschung - Appl Agric For Res 60:111–118
7. Bolte A, Eisenhauer D-R, Ehrhart H-P, Groß J, Hanewinkel M, Kölling C, Profft I, Rohde M, Röhe P, Amereller K (2009) Climate change and forest management—accordances and differences between the German states regarding assessments for needs and strategies towards forest adaptation. Landbauforschung—Appl Agric For Res 59:269–278
8. Braunisch V, Coppes J, Arlettaz R, Suchant R, Schmid H, Bollmann K (2013) Selecting from correlated climate variables: a major source of uncertainty for predicting species distributions under climate change. Ecography 36:971–983
9. Braunisch V, Coppes J, Arlettaz R, Suchant R, Zellweger F, Bollmann K (2014) Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity. PLoS ONE 9:e97718
10. Brotons L, Herrando S, Pla M (2007) Updating bird species distribution at large spatial scales: applications of habitat modelling to data from long-term monitoring programs. Divers Distrib 13:276–288
11. Chamberlain DE, Fuller RJ (2001) Contrasting patterns of change in the distribution and abundance of farmland birds in relation to farming system in lowland Britain. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 10:399–409
12. Crick HQP (2004) The impact of climate change on birds. Ibis 146:48–56
13. Curt T, Bouchaud M, Agrech G (2001) Predicting site index of Douglas-Fir plantations from ecological variables in the Massif Central area of France. For Ecol Manag 149:61–74
14. Deutscher Wetterdienst (2010) CDC: Das Klimadatenzentrum des Deutschen Wetterdienstes. http://cdc.dwd.de/catalogue/srv/de/main.home. Accessed 3 Apr 2014
15. DFWR (2014) Die Baumarten und ihre Aufteilung. http://www.forstwirtschaft-in-deutschlandde/waelder-entdecken/baumarten/. Accessed 3 Apr 2014
16. DLR (2010) CORINE land cover 2006. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen
17. Doswald N, Willis SG, Collingham YC, Pain DJ, Green RE, Huntley B (2009) Potential impacts of climatic change on the breeding and non-breeding ranges and migration distance of European Sylvia warblers. J Biogeogr 36:1194–1208
18. Eglington S, Pearce-Higgins J (2012) Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends. PLoS One 7:e30407
19. Elith J, Kearney M, Phillips S (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Method Ecol Evol 1:330–342
20. Esch T, Himmler V, Schorcht G, Thiel M, Wehrmann T, Bachofer F, Conrad C, Schmidt M, Dech S (2009) Large-area assessment of impervious surface based on integrated analysis of single-date Landsat-7 images and geospatial vector data. Remote Sens Environ 113:1678–1690
21. Fielding AH, Haworth PF (1995) Testing the generality of bird-habitat models. Conserv Biol 9:1466–1481
22. Gedeon K, Grüneberg C, Mitschke A, Sudfeldt C, Eikhorst W, Fischer S, Flade M, Frick S, Geiersberger I, Koop B, Kramer M, Krüger T, Roth N, Ryslavy T, Schlotmann F, Stübing S, Sudmann SR, Steffens R, Vökler F, Witt K (2015) Atlas Deutscher Brutvogelarten, Stiftung Vogelmonitoring Deutschland und Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten, Hohenstein-Enstthal und Münster
23. Glutz von Blotzheim UN, Bauer KM (eds) (1998) Handbuch der Vögel Mitteleuropas eBook. AULA GmbH, Wiesbaden
24. Goßner M, Utschick H (2002) Douglas fir stands deprive wintering bird species of food resource. Neobiota 3:105–121
25. Gottschalk TK, Aue B, Hotes S, Ekschmitt K (2011) Influence of grain size on species-habitat models. Ecol Model 222:3403–3412
26. Gottschalk TK, Bertling M, Wolters V, Biermann J (2008) A new MW algorithm to speed up landscape index calculation of high resolution maps. In: Schiewe J, Michel U (eds) Geoinformatics paves the highway to digital Earth. Institut für Geoinformatik und Fernerkundung, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, pp 29–32
27. Gottschalk TK, Huettmann F (2011) Comparison of distance sampling and territory mapping methods for birds in four different habitats. J Ornithol 152:421–429
28. Hanewinkel M, Cullmann DA, Schelhaas M-J, Nabuurs G-J, Zimmermann NE (2013) Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land. Nat Clim Chang 3:203–207
29. Hickler T, Vohland K, Feehan J, Miller PA, Smith B, Costa L, Giesecke T, Fronzek S, Carter TR, Cramer W, Kuehn I, Sykes MT (2012) Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 21:50–63
30. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978
31. Hoffmann-Kroll R, Schäfer D, Seibel S (2003) Landscape indicators from ecological area sampling in Germany. Agric Ecosyst Environ 98:363–370
32. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York
33. Hunter JE, Gutiérrez RJ (1995) Habitat configuration around spotted owl sites in northwestern California. Condor 97:684–693
34. Huntley B, Green RE, Collingham YC, Willis SG (2007) A climatic atlas of European breeding birds. Lynx Edicions, Barcelona
35. IPCC (2007) Intergovernmental panel on climate change fourth assessment report: climate change 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.html
36. Jackson ST, Betancourt JL, Booth RK, Gray ST (2009) Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions. PNAS 106:19685–19692
37. Jetz W, Wilcove DS, Dobson AP (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol 5:e157. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157
38. Lack D (1954) The natural regulation of animal numbers. Oxford University Press, Oxford
39. Lasch P, Lindner M, Erhard M, Suckow F, Wenzel A (2002) Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change - the Brandenburg case study. For Ecol Manag 162:73–86
40. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–1055
41. Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17:2145–2151
42. Müller J, Pollath J, Moshammer R, Schroder B (2009) Predicting the occurrence of middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopos medius on a regional scale, using forest inventory data. For Ecol Manag 257:502–509
43. Müller J, Stollenmaier S (1994) Effects of growing Douglas fir on birdlife. AFZ, Allg Forst Z 49:237–239
44. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Emissions scenarios. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
45. Ockendon N, Baker DJ, Carr JA, White EC, Almond REA, Amano T, Bertram E, Bradbury RB, Bradley C, Butchart SHM, Doswald N, Foden W, Gill DJC, Green RE, Sutherland WJ, Tanner EVJ, Pearce-Higgins JW (2014) Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects. Glob Chang Biol 20:2221–2229
46. Oliver TH, Morecroft MD (2014) Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities. WIREs Clim Chang 5:317–335
47. Orlowsky B, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC (2008) A resampling scheme for regional climate simulations and its performance compared to a dynamical RCM. Theor Appl Climatol 92:209–223
48. R Development Core Team (2013) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, http://www.R-project.org/
49. Sachot S, Perrin N, Neet C (2003) Winter habitat selection by two sympatric forest grouse in western Switzerland: implications for conservation. Biol Conserv 112:373–382
50. Saether B-E (2000) Weather ruins winter vacations. Science 288:1975–1976
51. Schmidt M, Hanewinkel M, Kändler G, Kublin E, Kohnle U (2010) An inventory-based approach for modeling single tree storm damage—experiences with the winter storm 1999 in southwestern Germany. Can J For Res 40:1636–1652
52. Söderström B, Pärt T (2000) Influence of landscape scale on farmland birds breeding in semi-natural pastures. Conserv Biol 14:522–533
53. Spiecker H (2003) Silvicultural management in maintaining biodiversity and resistance of forests in Europe-temperate zone. J Environ Manag 67:55–65
54. Südbeck P, Andretzke H, Fischer S, Gedeon K, Schikore T, Schröder K, Sudfeldt C (eds) (2005) Methodenstandards zur Erfassung der Brutvögel Deutschlands, Radolfzell
55. Sudfeldt C, Dröschmeister R, Wahl J, Berlin K, Gottschalk T, Grünberg C, Mitschke A, Trautmann S (2012) Vogelmonitoring in Deutschland. Naturschutz und Biologische Vielfalt, Landwirt-schaftsverlag Münster
56. Synes NW, Osborne PE (2011) Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 20:904–914
57. Thomas L, Buckland ST, Rexstad E, Laake JL, Strindberg S, Hedley SL, Bishop JRB, Marques TA (2010) Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size. J Appl Ecol 47:5–14
58. Vermessungsverwaltungen der Bundesländer und BKG (2009) Digitales Geländemodell für Deutschland (DGM-D)
59. Virkkala R, Heikkinen RK, Leikola N, Luoto M (2008) Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change. Biol Conserv 141:1343–1353