Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends

PLoS ONE

Volumn 7, Issue 3, 2012, Pages

  Eglington, Sarah M ^a   Pearce Higgins, James W ^a  

^a THE NUNNERY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; LAND USE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; TREND STUDY; UNITED KINGDOM; WEATHER; AGRICULTURE; ALGORITHM; ANIMAL; BIODIVERSITY; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLASSIFICATION; CROP; ECOSYSTEM; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; POPULATION DENSITY; SEASON; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; TEMPERATURE;

AVES;

AGRICULTURE; ALGORITHMS; ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROPS, AGRICULTURAL; ECOSYSTEM; GREAT BRITAIN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASONS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER;

EID: 84859141843     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030407     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Butchart SM, Walpole M, Collen B, van Strien A, Scharlemann JPW, et al. (2010) Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines. Science 328: 1164-1168 (doi:10.1126/science.1187512).
2. Rands MRW, Adams WM, Bennun L, Butchart SHM, Clements A, et al. (2010) Biodiversity Conservation: Challenges Beyond 2010. Science 329: 1298-1303 (doi:10.1126/science.1189138).
3. Pimm SL, Raven P, (2000) Biodiversity: Extinction by numbers. Nature 403: 843-845 (doi:10.1038/35002708).
4. Gaston K, Blackburn T, Klein, Goldewijk K, (2003) Habitat conversion and global avian biodiversity loss. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 270: 1293-1300 (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2002.2303).
5. Brook B, Sodhi N, Bradshaw C, (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23: 453-460 (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.011).
6. Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, et al. (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287: 1770-1774 (doi: 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770).
7. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148 (doi:10.1038/nature02121).
8. Parmesan C, Yohe G, (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42 (doi:10.1038/nature01286).
9. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, et al. (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60 (doi:10.1038/nature01333).
10. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD, (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology 12: 450-455 (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x).
11. Warren MA, Hill JK, Thomas JA, Asher J, Fox R, et al. (2001) Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414: 65-69 (doi:10.1038/35102054).
12. de Chazal J, Rounsevell MD, (2009) Land-use and climate change within assessments of biodiversity change: A review. Global Environmental Change 19: 306-315 (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.007).
13. Birdlife International (2004) Birds in Europe: Population Estimates, Trends and Conservation Status Cambridge, UK Birdlife International (Birdlife Conservation Series No. 12).
14. Chamberlain D, Fuller R, Bunce R, Duckworth J, Shrubb M, (2000) Changes in the abundance of farmland birds in relation to the timing of agricultural intensification in England and Wales. Journal of Applied Ecology 37: 771-788 (doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00548.x).
15. Donald P, Green R, Heath M, (2001) Agricultural intensification and the collapse of Europe's farmland bird populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 268: 25-29 (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2000.1325).
16. Gregory RD, Noble DG, Custance J, (2004) The state of play of farmland birds; population trends and conservation status of lowland farmland birds in the United Kingdom. Ibis 145 (Suppl. 2): 1-13 (doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2004.00358.x).
17. Jiguet F, Gadot A, Julliard R, Newson S, Couvet D, (2007) Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change. Global Change Biology 13: 1672-1684 (doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01386.x).
18. Jiguet F, Devictor V, Ottvall R, Van Turnhout C, Van der Jeugd H, et al. (2010) Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 277: 3601-3608 (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2010.0796).
19. Møller AP, Rubolini D, Lehikoinen E, (2008) Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 16195-16200 (doi:10.1073/pnas.0803825105).
20. Gregory RD, Willis SG, Jiguet F, Voříšek P, Klvaňová A, et al. (2009) An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations. PLoS ONE 4: e4678 (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0004678).
21. Davey CM, Vickery JA, Boatman ND, Chamberlain DE, Parry HR, et al. (2010) Assessing the impact of Entry Level Stewardship on lowland farmland birds in England. Ibis 152: 459-474 (doi:10.1111/j.1474-919X.2009.01001.x).
22. Clavero M, Villero D, Brotons L, (2011) Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate? PLoS ONE 6: e18581.
23. DEFRA (2011) WILD BIRD POPULATIONS IN THE UK. Defra, London. Available: http://www.archive.defra.gov.uk/evidence/statistics/environment/wildlife/download/pdf/110120-stats-wild-bird-populations-uk.pdf. Accessed 2012 January 20.
24. Marchant JH, Hudson R, Carter SP, Whittington PA, (1990) Population Trends in British Breeding Birds. BTO, Tring.
25. Gregory RD, Bashford RI, Balmer DE, Marchant JH, Wilson AM, et al. (1996) The Breeding Bird Survey 1994-1995. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
26. Freeman SN, Noble DG, Newson SE, Baillie SR, (2007) Modelling population changes using data from different surveys: the Common Birds Census and the Breeding Bird Survey. Bird Study 54: 61-72 (doi: 10.1080/00063650709461457).
27. Gregory R, Van Strien A, Vorisek P, Meyling A, Noble D, et al. (2005) Developing indicators for European birds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360: 269-288 (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2004.1602).
28. Wilson JD, Evans AD, Grice PV, (2009) Bird Conservation and Agriculture Cambridge Cambridge University Press.
29. Lucas R, Rowlands A, Keyworth S, Bunting P, (2007) Rule-based classification of multi-temporal satellite imagery for habitat and agricultural land cover mapping. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 62: 165-185 (doi:10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2007.03.003).
30. Fuller RM, Devereux BJ, Gillings S, Amable GS, Hill RA, (2005) Indices of bird-habitat preference from field surveys of birds and remote sensing of land cover: a study of south-eastern England with wider implications for conservation and biodiversity assessment. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14: 223-239 (doi: 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00145.x).
31. Defra (2010) www.archive.defra.gov.uk/evidence/statistics/foodfarm/landuselivestock/junesurvey/results.htm. Accessed 2012 January 20.
32. Keep M, (2009) Agriculture: historical statistics. House of Commons library standard note SN/SG/3339.
33. Parker DE, Legg TP, Folland CK, (1992) A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772-1991. International Journal of Climatology 12: 317-342.
34. Jones PD, Conway D, (1997) Precipitation in the British Isles: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1995. International Journal of Climatology 17: 427-438.
35. Robinson R, Baillie S, Crick H, (2007) Weather-dependent survival: Implications of climate change for passerine population processes. Ibis 149: 357-364.
36. Bradbury RB, Wilson JD, Moorcroft D, Morris AJ, Perkins AJ, (2003) Habitat and weather are weak correlates of nestling condition and growth rates of four UK farmland passerines. Ibis 145: 295-306 (doi:10.1046/j.1474-919X.2003.00142.x).
37. Peach W, Baillie S, Underhill L, (1991) Survival of British sedge warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in relation to west African rainfall. Ibis 133: 300-305.
38. Chevan A, Sutherland M, (1991) Hierarchical partitioning, The American Statistician 45: 90-96.
39. Mac Nally R, (2002) Multiple regression and inference in ecology and conservation biology: further comments on identifying important predictor variables. Biodiversity and Conservation 11: 1397-1401 (DOI:10.1023/A:1016250716679).
40. Murray K, Conner MM, (2009) Methods to quantify variable importance: implications for the analysis of noisy ecological data. Ecology 90: 348-355.
41. SAS Institute Inc (2008) SAS® 9.2 Enhanced Logging Facilities Cary, NC SAS Institute Inc.
42. Greenwood J, Baillie S, (1991) Effects of density-dependence and weather on population changes of English passerines using a non-experimental paradigm. Ibis 133: 121-133.
43. Wilson A, Vickery J, Pendlebury C, (2007) Agri-environment schemes as a tool for reversing declining populations of grassland waders: Mixed benefits from Environmentally Sensitive Areas in England. Biological Conservation 136: 128-135.
44. Newson SE, Rexstad EA, Baillie SR, Buckland ST, Aebischer NJ, (2010) Population change of avian predators and grey squirrels in England: is there evidence for an impact on avian prey populations? Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 244-252 (doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01771.x).
45. Devictor V, Julliard R, Couvet D, Jiguet F, (2008) Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 275: 2743-2748 (doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.0878).
46. Olesen JE, Bindi M, (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy 16: 239-262 (doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00004-7).
47. Jetz W, Wilcove DS, Dobson AP, (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biology 5: e157 (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157).
48. Pearce-Higgins JW, Bradbury RB, Chamberlain DE, Drewitt A, Langston RHW, et al. (2011) Targeting research to underpin climate change adaptation for birds. Ibis 153: 207-211 (doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2010.01086.x).