Long-term shoreline change at Kailua, Hawaii, using regularized single transect

Journal of Coastal Research

Volumn 31, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 464-476

  Anderson, Tiffany R ^a   Frazer, L Neil ^a   Fletcher, Charles H ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

Author keywords

B splines; Beaches; Coastal erosion; Sediment processes; Shoreline change rates; Tikhonov regularization

Indexed keywords

COASTAL EROSION; COMPARATIVE STUDY; LONG-TERM CHANGE; MODEL VALIDATION; SHORELINE CHANGE; SPECTRUM; TRANSECT;

HAWAII [UNITED STATES]; HAWAIIAN ISLANDS; KAILUA BAY; OAHU;

EID: 84924335770     PISSN: 07490208     EISSN: 15515036     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-13-00202.1     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Anderson, T. R. and Frazer, L. N., 2014. Toward parsimony in shoreline change prediction (III): B-splines and noise handling. Journal of Coastal Research, 30(4), 729-742.
2. Anderson, T. R.; Frazer, L. N., and Fletcher, C. H., 2010. Transient and persistent shoreline change from a storm. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(8), L08401. doi:10.1029/2009GL042252.
3. Ando, T., 2010. Bayesian Model Selection and Statistical Modeling. Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 286p.
4. Aster, R. C.; Borchers, B., and Thurber, C. H., 2012. Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems, 2nd ed. Oxford, United Kingdom: Academic Press/Elsevier, 360p.
5. Box, G. E. P., 1954. The exploration and exploitation of response surfaces: Some general considerations and examples. Biometrics, 10(1), 16-60.
6. Box, G. E. P. and Tiao, G. C., 1973. Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis. Redding, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley, 588p.
7. Breiman, L. and Spector, P., 1992. Submodel selection and evaluation in regression. The X-random case. International Statistical Review, 60(3), 291-319.
8. Cherkassky, V.; Xuhui, S.; Mulier, F. M., and Vapnik, V. N., 1999. Model complexity control for regression using VC generalization bounds. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 10(5), 1075-1089.
9. Claeskens, G. and Hjort, N. L., 2008. Model Selection and Model Averaging. New York: Cambridge University Press, 312p.
10. Crowell, M.; Douglas, B. C., and Leatherman, S. P., 1997. On forecasting future U. S. shoreline positions: A test of algorithms. Journal of Coastal Research, 13(4), 1245-1255.
11. Davidson, M. A.; Splinter, K. D., and Turner, I. L., 2013. A simple equilibrium model for predicting shoreline change. Coastal Engineering, 73, 191-202.
12. De Boor, C., 1978. A Practical Guide to Splines. New York: Springer-Verlag, 392p.
13. De Vriend, H. J.; Zyserman, J.; Nicholson, J.; Roelvink, J. A.; Pechon, P., and Southgate, H. N., 1993. Medium-term 2DH coastal area modeling. Coastal Engineering, 21(1), 193-224.
14. Douglas, B. C. and Crowell, M., 2000. Long-term shoreline position prediction and error propagation. Journal of Coastal Research, 16(1), 145-152.
15. Edward K. Noda and Associates, Inc., Staff, 1989. Hawaii Shoreline Erosion Management Study, Overview and Case Study Sites-Makaha, Oahu; Kailua-Lanikai, Oahu; Kukuiula-Poipu, Kauai. Report for the Hawaii Coastal Zone Management Program, Volume 1. Honolulu, Hawaii: Edward K. Noda and Associates, Inc., pp. 4-34-4-74.
16. Fenster, M. S.; Dolan, R., and Elder, J. F., 1993. A new method for predicting shoreline positions from historical data. Journal of Coastal Research, 9(1), 147-171.
17. Fletcher, C. H.; Rooney, J. J. B.; Barbee, M.; Lim, S.-C., and Richmond, B. M., 2003. Mapping shoreline change using digital ortho-photogrammetry on Maui, Hawaii. In: Byrnes, M.; Crowell, M., and Fowler, C. (eds.), Shoreline Mapping and Change Analysis: Technical Considerations & Management Implications, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 38, pp. 106-124.
18. Frazer, L. N.; Anderson, T. R., and Fletcher, C. H., 2009. Modeling storms improves estimates of long-term shoreline change. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(20), L20404. doi:10.1029/2009GL040061.
19. Frazer, L. N.; Genz, A. S., and Fletcher, C. H., 2009. Toward parsimony in shoreline change prediction (I): Methods. Journal of Coastal Research, 25(2), 366-379.
20. Galgano, F. A. and Douglas, B. C., 2000. Shoreline position prediction: Methods and errors. Environmental Geosciences, 7(1), 23-31.
21. Geisser, S., 1975. The predictive sample reuse method with applications. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(350), 320-328.
22. Gelman, A.; Carlin, J. B.; Stern, H. S.; Dunson, D. B.; Vehtari, A., and Rubin, D. B., 2014. Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed. Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press, 675p.
23. Genz, A. S.; Fletcher, C. H.; Dunn, R. A.; Frazer, L. N., and Rooney, J. J., 2007. The predictive accuracy of shoreline change rate methods and alongshore beach variation on Maui, Hawaii. Journal of Coastal Research, 23(1), 87-105.
24. Genz, A. S.; Frazer, L. N., and Fletcher, C. H., 2009. Toward parsimony in shoreline change prediction (II): Applying basis function methods to real and synthetic data. Journal of Coastal Research, 25(2), 380-392.
25. Gutierrez, B. T.; Plant, N. G., and Thieler, E. R., 2011. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 116(F2), F02009. doi:10. 1029/2010JF001891.
26. Hanson, H. and Kraus, N. C., 1989. GENESIS: Generalized Model for Simulating Shoreline Change. Vol. 1: Reference Manual and Users Guide. Technical Report CERC-89-19. Vicksburg, Mississippi: Coastal Engineering Research Center, U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, 247p.
27. Hapke, C. and Plant, N., 2010. Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model. Marine Geology, 278(1-4), 140-149.
28. Harney, J. N. and Fletcher, C. H., 2003. A budget of carbonate framework and sediment production, Kailua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 73(6), 856-868.
29. Hastie, T.; Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J., 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning, 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag, 745p.
30. Honeycutt, M. G.; Crowell, M., and Douglas, B. C., 2001. Shorelineposition forecasting: Impact of storms, rate-calculation methodologies, and temporal scales. Journal of Coastal Research, 17(3), 721-730.
31. Hwang, D., 1981. Beach Changes on Oahu as Revealed by Aerial Photographs. Technical Report HIG-81-3. Honolulu, Hawaii: University of Hawaii, Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, pp. 66-75.
32. Kohavi, R., 1995. A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (Montreal, Canada), pp. 1137-1143.
33. Li, Y.; Lark, M., and Reeve, D., 2005. Multi-scale variability of beach profiles at Duck: A wavelet analysis. Coastal Engineering, 52(12), 1133-1153.
34. Long, J. W. and Plant, N. G., 2012. Extended Kalman filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(13), L13603. doi:10.1029/2012GL052180.
35. Markatou, M.; Tian, H.; Biswas, S., and Hripcsak, G., 2005. Analysis of variance of cross-validation estimators of the generalization error. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6(Jul), 1127-1168.
36. Menke, W., 2012. Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory, 3rd ed. San Diego, California: Academic Press, 293p.
37. Miller, J. K. and Dean, R. G., 2004. A simple new shoreline change model. Coastal Engineering, 17(3), 531-556.
38. Morton, R. A., 1979. Temporal and spatial variations in shoreline changes and their implications, examples from the Texas Gulf Coast. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 49(4), 1101-1112.
39. Norcross, Z. M.; Fletcher, C. H., and Merrifield, M., 2002. Annual and interannual changes on a reef-fringed pocket beach: Kailua Bay, Hawaii. Marine Geology, 190(3-4), 553-580.
40. Plant, N. G.; Aarninkhof, S. G. J.; Turner, I. L., and Kingston, K. S., 2007. The performance of shoreline detection models applied to video imagery. Journal of Coastal Research, 23(3), 658-670.
41. Press, W. H.; Teukolsky, S. A.; Vetterling, W. T., and Flannery, B. P., 2007. Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computing, 3rd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1235p.
42. Romine, B. M.; Fletcher, C. H.; Frazer, L. N.; Genz, A. S.; Barbee, M. M., and Lim, S.-C., 2009. Historical shoreline change, southeast Oahu, Hawaii: Applying polynomial models to calculate shoreline change rates. Journal of Coastal Research, 25(6), 1236-1253.
43. Ruggiero, P. and List, J. H., 2009. Improving accuracy and statistical reliability of shoreline position and change rate estimates. Journal of Coastal Research, 25(5), 1069-1081.
44. Shao, J., 1993. Linear model selection by cross-validation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(422), 486-494.
45. Sivia, D. S., and Skilling, J., 2006. Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial, 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 246p.
46. Stive, M. J.; Aarninkhof, S. G.; Hamm, L.; Hanson, H.; Larson, M.; Wijnberg, K. M.; Nicholls, R. J., and Capobianco, M., 2002. Variability of shore and shoreline evolution. Coastal Engineering, 47(2), 211-235.
47. Tebbens, S. F.; Burrows, S. M., and Nelson, E. E., 2002. Wavelet analysis of shoreline change on the Outer Banks of North Carolina: An example of complexity in the marine sciences. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Colloquium on "Self-Organized Complexity in the Physical, Biological, and Social Sciences" 99(Suppl. 1), 2554-2560.
48. University of Hawaii Coastal Geology Group, 2014. Hawaii Coastal Erosion Website: Mosaics. http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/erosion/mosaics.php?sArea1/4kailua.
49. Van Rijn, L. C.; Walstra, D. J. R.; Grasmeijer, B.; Sutherland, J.; Pan, S., and Sierra, J. P., 2003. The predictability of cross-shore bed evolution of sandy beaches at the time scale of storms and seasons using process-based profile models. Coastal Engineering, 47(3), 295-327.
50. Vapnik, V., 1995. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, New York: Springer-Verlag, 188p.
51. Vapnik, V.; Levin, E., and Le Cun, Y., 1994. Measuring the VC-dimensionofa learning machine. Neural Computation, 6(5), 851-876.
52. Yates, M. L. and Le Cozannet, G., 2012. Brief communication: Evaluating European coastal evolution using Bayesian networks. Natural Hazards Earth System Science, 12(4), 1173-1177.
53. Zellner, A. and Tiao, G. C., 1964. Bayesian analysis of the regression model with autocorrelated errors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 59(307), 763-778.