Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment by embedding evolutionary resilience, participatory modelling and adaptive management

Journal of Environmental Management

Volumn 151, Issue , 2015, Pages 97-104

  Bond, Alan ^a,b   Morrison Saunders, Angus ^b,c   Gunn, Jill A E ^d   Pope, Jenny ^b,e   Retief, Francois ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b NORTH WEST UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^c MURDOCH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN   (Canada)

^e INTEGRAL SUSTAINABILITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Adaptive management; Ambiguity; Evolutionary resilience; Ignorance; Post normal science; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; AMBIGUITY; ASSESSMENT PROCESS; EMBEDDINGS; EVOLUTIONARY RESILIENCE; IGNORANCE; IMPACT ASSESSMENTS; MANAGING UNCERTAINTY; POST-NORMAL SCIENCE; UNCERTAINTY;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; POLICY MAKING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ADAPTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; AMBIGUITY; ARTICLE; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH; HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT; HUMAN; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH; HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84922678616     PISSN: 03014797     EISSN: 10958630     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.030     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Bartlett R.V., Kurian P.A. The theory of environmental impact assessment: implicit models of policy making. Policy Polit. 1999, 27(4):415-433.
2. Bekker M.P.M., Putters K., van der Grinten T.E.D. Exploring the relation between evidence and decision-making: a political-administrative approach to health impact assessment. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2004, 24(2):139-149.
3. Bennett D.H., Scheringer M., McKone T.E., Hungerbühler K. Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2001, 35(6):1181-1189.
4. Benson M.H., Garmestani A.S. Embracing panarchy, building resilience and integrating adaptive management through a rebirth of the National Environmental Policy Act. J.Environ. Manag. 2011, 92(5):1420-1427.
5. Bond A., Dockerty T., Lovett A., Riche A.B., Haughton A.J., Bohan D.A., Sage R.B., Shield I.F., Finch J.W., Turner M.M., Karp A. Learning how to deal with values, frames and governance in sustainability appraisal. Reg. Stud. 2011, 45(8):1157-1170.
6. Sustainability Assessment: Pluralism, Practice and Progress. Built Environment Series 2013, Taylor and Francis, London. A. Bond, A. Morrison-Saunders, R. Howitt (Eds.).
7. Bond A.J. Let's not be rational about this: response to Benson. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2003, 21(4):266-268.
8. Bond A.J., Morrison-Saunders A. Re-evaluating sustainability assessment: aligning the vision and the practice. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2011, 31(1):1-7.
9. Burgess J., Stirling A., Clark J., Davies G., Eames M., Staley K., Williamson S. Deliberative mapping: a novel analytic-deliberative methodology to support contested science-policy decisions. Public Underst. Sci. 2007, 16(3):299-322.
10. Byer P.H., Yeomans J.S. Methods for addressing climate change uncertainties in project environmental impact assessments. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2007, 25(2):85-99.
11. Canter L., Atkinson S.F. Adaptive management with integrated decision making: an emerging tool for cumulative effects management. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2010, 28(4):287-297.
12. Cashmore M. The role of science in environmental impact assessment: process and procedure versus purpose in the development of theory. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2004, 24(4):403-426.
13. Cashmore M., Bond A., Sadler B. Introduction: the effectiveness of impact assessment instruments. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2009, 27(2):91-93.
14. Cashmore M., Gwilliam R., Morgan R., Cobb D., Bond A. The interminable issue of effectiveness: substantive purposes, outcomes and research challenges in the advancement of environmental impact assessment theory. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2004, 22(4):295-310.
15. Council of the European Communities Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora. Off. J. Eur. Commun. 1992, L206:7-50.
16. Davidson D.J. The applicability of the concept of resilience to social systems: some sources of optimism and nagging doubts. Soc. Nat. Resour. 2010, 23(12):1135-1149.
17. Davoudi S., Shaw K., Haider L.J., Quinlan A.E., Peterson G.D., Wilkinson C., Fünfgeld H., McEvoy D., Porter L., Davoudi S. Resilience: a bridging concept or a dead end? "Reframing" resilience: challenges for planning theory and practice interacting traps: resilience assessment of a pasture management system in Northern Afghanistan urban resilience: what does it mean in planning practice? Resilience as a useful concept for climate change adaptation? The politics of resilience for planning: a cautionary note. Plan. Theory Pract. 2012, 13(2):299-333.
18. de Jongh P. Uncertainty in EIA. Environmental Impact Assessment: Theory and Practice 1988, 62-84. Routledge, London. P. Wathern (Ed.).
19. Dipper B., Jones C., Wood C. Monitoring and post-auditing in environmental impact assessment: a review. J.Environ. Plan. Manag. 1998, 41(6):731-747.
20. Donnelly A., Jennings E., Mooney P., Finnan J., Lynn D., Jones M., O'Mahony T., Thérivel R., Byrne G. Workshop approach to developing objectives, targets and indicators for use in SEA. J.Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 2006, 8(2):135-156.
21. Duncan R. Opening new institutional spaces for grappling with uncertainty: a constructivist perspective. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2013, 38:151-154.
22. Eales R.P., Sheate W.R. Effectiveness of policy level environmental and sustainability assessment: challenges and lessons from recent practice. J.Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 2011, 13(1):39-65.
23. Elling B. Rationality and effectiveness: does EIA/SEA treat them as synonyms?. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2009, 27(2):121-131.
24. Fish R., Burgess J., Chilvers J., Footitt A., Haines-Young R., Russel D., Winter D.M. Participatory and deliberative techniques to embed an ecosystems approach into decision making: an introductory guide. (Defra project code: NR0124) Available at:, (last accessed 24.06.11.). http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=NR0124_10262_FRP.pdf.
25. Funtowicz S., Ravetz J.R. Emergent complex systems. Futures 1994, 26(6):568-582.
26. Funtowicz S.O., Ravetz J.R. Science for the post-normal age. Futures 1993, 25(7):739-755.
27. Funtowicz S.O., Ravetz J.R. Uncertainty, complexity and post-normal science. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 1994, 13(12):1881-1885.
28. Funtowicz S.O., Ravetz J.R. The worth of a songbird: ecological economics as a post-normal science. Ecol. Econ. 1994, 10(3):197-207.
29. Geneletti D., Beinat E., Chung C.F., Fabbri A.G., Scholten H.J. Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2003, 23(4):471-487.
30. Gunderson L.H., Holling C.S. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems 2002, Island Press.
31. Hacking T., Guthrie P. Sustainable development objectives in impact assessment: why are they needed and where do they come from?. J.Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 2006, 8(3):341-371.
32. Hanna S., Baja E. Asimple urban dispersion model tested with tracer data from Oklahoma City and Manhattan. Atmos. Environ. 2009, 43(4):778-786.
33. Hermans F., Knippenberg L. Aprinciple-based approach for the evaluation of sustainable development. J.Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 2006, 8(3):299-319.
34. Hilding-Rydevik T., Bjarnadóttir H. Context awareness and sensitivity in SEA implementation. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2007, 27(7):666-684.
35. Holling C.S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 1973, 4:1-23.
36. Holling C.S., Gunderson L.H. Resilience and adaptive cycles. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems 2002, 25-62. (Chapter 2), Island Press, Washington. L.H. Gunderson, C.S. Holling (Eds.).
37. International Association for Impact Assessment What is impact assessment? Available at, (last accessed 22.08.13.). http://www.iaia.org/publicdocuments/special-publications/What%20is%20IA_web.pdf.
38. Kahneman D. Thinking Fast and Slow 2013, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York.
39. Karjalainen T.P., Marttunen M., Sarkki S., Rytkönen A.-M. Integrating ecosystem services into environmental impact assessment: an analytic-deliberative approach. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2013, 40:54-64.
40. Kørnøv L., Thissen W.A.H. Rationality in decision- and policy-making: implications for strategic environmental assessment. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2000, 18(3):191-200.
41. Landström C., Whatmore S.J., Lane S.N., Odoni N.A., Ward N., Bradley S. Coproducing flood risk knowledge: redistributing expertise in critical 'participatory modelling'. Environ. Plan. A 2011, 43:1617-1633.
42. Lane S.N., Odoni N.A., Landström C., Whatmore S.J., Ward N., Bradley S. Doing flood risk science differently: an experiment in radical scientific method. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 2011, 36:15-36.
43. Larsen S.V., Kørnøv L., Driscoll P. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in strategic environmental assessment. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2013, 43:144-150.
44. Lawrence D.P. The need for EIA theory-building. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 1997, 17:79-107.
45. Lawrence D.P. Planning theories and environmental impact assessment. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2000, 20:607-625.
46. Lee N., Walsh F. Strategic environmental assessment: an overview. Proj. Apprais. 1992, 7(3):126-136.
47. Leknes E. The roles of EIA in the decision-making process. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2001, 21(4):309-334.
48. Leung W., Noble B., Gunn J., Jaeger J.A.G. A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2015, 50:116-123.
49. Liu Y., Chen J., He W., Tong Q., Li W. Application of an uncertainty analysis approach to strategic environmental assessment for urban planning. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2010, 44(8):3136-3141.
50. Morgan R.K. Environmental impact assessment: the state of the art. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2012, 30(1):5-14.
51. Morrison-Saunders A., Pope J., Bond A., Retief F. Towards sustainability assessment follow-up. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2014, 45:38-45.
52. Owens S., Rayner T., Bina O. New agendas for appraisal: reflections on theory, practice, and research. Environ. Plan. A 2004, 36(11):1943-1959.
53. Petersen A.C., Cath A., Hage M., Kunseler E., van der Sluijs J.P. Post-normal science in practice at the Netherlands environmental assessment agency. Sci. Technol. Hum. Values 2011, 36(3):362-388.
54. Pope J., Bond A., Morrison-Saunders A., Retief F. Advancing the theory and practice of impact assessment: setting the research agenda. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2013, 41:1-9.
55. Ravetz J.R. Editorial. Futures 1999, 31(7):647-653.
56. Retief F., Morrison-Saunders A., Geneletti D., Pope J. Exploring the psychology of trade-off decision-making in environmental impact assessment. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2013, 31(1):13-23.
57. Sadler B. Taking stock of SEA. Handbook of Strategic Environmental Assessment 2011, 1-18. Earthscan, London. B. Sadler, R. Aschemann, J. Dusik, T.B. Fischer, M.R. Partidário, R. Verheem (Eds.).
58. Slootweg R., Jones M. Resilience thinking improves SEA: a discussion paper. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2011, 29(4):263-276.
59. Stirling A. Keep it complex. Nature 2010, 468(7327):1029-1031.
60. Tennøy A., Kværner J., Gjersyad K.I. Uncertainty in environmental impact assessment predictions: the need for better communication and more transparency. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2006, 24(1):45-56.
61. Thérivel R., Christian G., Craig C., Grinham R., Mackins D., Smith J., Sneller T., Turner R., Walker D., Yamane M. Sustainability-focused impact assessment: English experiences. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2009, 27(2):155-168.
62. Turner B.A. The organizational and interorganizational development of disasters. Adm. Sci. Q. 1976, 21:378-397.
63. Van Buuren A., Nooteboom S.G. Evaluating strategic environmental assessment in the Netherlands: content, process and procedure as indissoluble criteria for effectiveness. Impact Assess. Proj. Apprais. 2009, 27(2):145-154.
64. Videira N., Antunes P., Santos R., Gamito S. Participatory modelling in environmental decision-making. J.Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 2003, 5(3):421-447.
65. Walker B., Carpenter S., Anderies J., Abel N., Cumming G., Janssen M., Lebel L., Norberg J., Peterson G.D., Pritchard R. Resilience management in social-ecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conserv. Ecol. 2002, 6(1):14.
66. Wallington T., Bina O., Thissen W.A.H. Theorising strategic environmental assessment: fresh perspectives and future challenges. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2007, 27(7):569-584.
67. Weston J. EIA theories-all Chinese whispers and no critical theory. J.Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 2010, 12(4):357-374.
68. Wood C., Jones C.E. The effect of environmental assessment on UK local planning authority decisions. Urban Stud. 1997, 34(8):1237-1257.