Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China

Science China Earth Sciences

Volumn 58, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 739-754

  Leng, GuoYong ^a,d   Tang, QiuHong ^a   Huang, MaoYi ^b   Hong, Yang ^c   Ruby, Leung L ^b  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   (China)

^b PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

Author keywords

China; climate change; interannual variability; surface water

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; RIVERS; RUNOFF; SOIL MOISTURE; SURFACE WATERS; WATERSHEDS;

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; CHINA; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGIC MODELING; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; MOISTURE VARIABILITY; VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITIES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84921526118     PISSN: 16747313     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11430-014-4987-0     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Arnell N W. 2003. Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: A global perspective. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 7: 619–641
2. 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104: 18866–18870
3. Christensen N S, Wood A W, Voisin N, et al. 2004. Effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin. Clim Change, 62: 337–363
4. Dai A. 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Change, 3: 52–58
5. Dan L, Ji J, Xie Z, et al. 2012. Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment. J Geophys Res, 117: D11102
6. Durack P J, Wijffels S E, Matear R J. 2012. Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000. Science, 336: 455–458
7. Elliott J, Deryng D, Müller C, et al. 2014. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 111: 3239–3244
8. Easterling D R, Meehl G A, Parmesan C, et al. 2000a. Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289: 2068–2074
9. Easterling D R, Evans J L, Groisman P Y, et al. 2000b. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 81: 417–425
10. Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Kobayashi K. 2006. Long-term changes of heavy precipitation and dry weather in Japan (1901–2004). J Meteor Soc Jpn, 84: 1033–1046
11. Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal J S. 2004. Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. Part II: Future climate scenarios (2071–2100). Clim Dyn, 23: 839–858
12. Groisman P Y, Knight R W, Easterling D R, et al. 2005. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Clim, 18: 1326–1350
13. Gosling S N, Taylor R G, Arnell N W, et al. 2011. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 15: 279–294
14. Guo S, Wang J, Xiong L, et al. 2002. A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. J Hydrol, 268: 1–15
15. Haddeland I, Clark D B, Franssen W, et al. 2011. Multi-model estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results. J Hydrometeorol, 12: 869–884
16. Hamlet A F, Lettenmaier D P. 1999. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. J Amer Water Resour Assoc, 35: 1597–1623
17. Hayhoe K, Wake C P, Huntington T G, et al. 2007. Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast. Clim Dynam, 28: 381–407
18. Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L, et al. 2013. A trend-preserving bias correction—The ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst Dynam, 4: 219–236
19. Hagemann S, Chen C, Clark D B, et al. 2013. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models. Earth Syst Dynam, 4: 129–144
20. Jiang T, Chen Y, Xu C, et al. 2007. Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J Hydrol, 336: 316–333
21. Katz R W, Brown B G. 1992. Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Clim Change, 21: 289–302
22. Kranz N, Menniken T, Hinkel J. 2010. Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play?. Environ Sci Policy, 13: 648–659
23. Kunkel K E, Thomas R K, Harold B, et al. 2013. Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: State of knowledge. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 94: 499–514
24. Lambert S J, Boer G J. 2001. CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim Dynam, 17: 83–106
25. Liang X, Lettenmaier D P, Wood E F, et al. 1994. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs. J Geophys Res, 99: 14415–14428
26. Liang X, Lettenmaier D P, Wood E F. 1996. One-dimensional statistical dynamic representation of subgrid spatial variability of precipitation in the Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity model. J Geophys Res, 101: 21403–21422
27. Li L, Hao Z C, Wang J H, et al. 2008. Impact of future climate change on runoff in the head region of the Yellow River. J Hydrol Eng, 13: 347–354
28. Li Z, Liu W Z, Zhang X C, et al. 2010. Assessing and regulating the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China. Sci China Earth Sci, 53: 710–720
29. Maurer E P. 2007. Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios. Clim Change, 82: 309–325
30. Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463: 747–756
31. Mote P, Brekke L, Duffy P B, et al. 2011. Guidelines for constructing climate scenarios. Eos Trans AGU, 92: 257
32. Nijssen B, Lettenmaier D P, Liang X, et al. 1997. Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins. Water Resour Res, 33: 711–724
33. Nijssen B, Schnur R, Lettenmaier D P. 2001. Global retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model, 1980–93. J Clim, 14: 1790–1808
34. O’Gorman P A O, Schneider T. 2009. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 106: 14773–14777
35. Piao S, Yin L, Wang X, et al. 2009. Summer soil moisture regulated by precipitation frequency in China. Environ Res Lett, 4: 044012
36. Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467: 43–51
37. Pierce D W, Barnett T P, Santer B D, et al. 2009. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 106: 8441–8446
38. Piontek F, Müller C, Thomas A M P, et al. 2014. Multi-sectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 111: 3233–3238
39. Portmann F T, Döll P, Eisner S, et al. 2013. Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: Assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections. Environ Res Lett, 8: 024023
40. Qiu J. 2010. China drought highlights future climate threats. Nature, 465: 142–143
41. Reichler T, Kim J. 2008. How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate?. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 89: 303–311
42. Rahmstorf S, Coumou D. 2011. Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108: 17905–17909
43. 2-induced changes in interannual temperature and precipitation variability in 19 CMIP2 experiments. J Clim, 15: 2395–2411
44. Robock A, Vinnikov K Y, Srinivasan G, et al. 2000. The global soil moisture data bank. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 81: 1281–1299
45. Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R. 2012. Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat Clim Change, 2: 248–253
46. Schar C, Vidale P L, Luthi D, et al. 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature, 427: 332–336
47. Schewe J, Heinke J, Gerten D, et al. 2014. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 111: 3249–3250
48. Tang Q, Lettenmaier D P. 2012. 21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins. Geophys Res Lett, 39: L06403
49. Vano J A, Udall B, Cayan D R, et al. 2013. Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado river streamflow. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 95: 59–78
50. Wada Y, Wisser D, Eisner S, et al. 2013. Multi-model projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change. Geophys Res Lett, 40: 4626–4632
51. Wang G Q, Zhang J Y, Jin J L, et al. 2012. Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and a VIC model. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 16: 231–240
52. Wu C, Chen J, Pumpanen J, et al. 2012. An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture. Environ Res Lett, 7: 024011
53. Xu Y, Zhang X, Tian Y. 2012. Impact of climate change on 24-h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin, East China. Hydrol Process, 26: 4067–4077
54. Xu Z, Zhao F, Li J. 2009. Response of runoff to climate change in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin. Quatern Int, 208: 62–75
55. Yao C, Yang S, Qian W, et al. 2008. Regional summer precipitation events in Asia and their changes in the past decades. J Geophys Res, 113: D17107
56. Yang C, Yu Z, Hao Z, et al. 2012. Impact of climate change on flood and drought events in Huaihe River Basin, China. Hydrol Res, 43: 14–22
57. Zeng X, Kundzewicz Z W, Zhou J, et al. 2012. Discharge projection in the Yangtze River basin under different emission scenarios based on the artificial neural networks. Quatern Int, 282: 113–121
58. Zhang X, Tang Q, Pan M, et al. 2013. A long-term land surface hydrologic fluxes and states dataset for China. J Hydrometeor, 15: 957–972
59. Zhang J, Wang G, Pagano T C, et al. 2013. Using hydrologic simulation to explore the impacts of climate change on runoff in the Huaihe River Basin of China. J Hydrol Eng, 18: 1393–1399
60. Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, et al. 2005. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim, 18: 1096–1108