A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 279-294

  Gosling, S N ^a   Taylor, R G ^b   Arnell, N W ^c   Todd, M C ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL RUNOFF; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE FORCINGS; CLIMATE MODEL; CLIMATE MODELLING; COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS; DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL; ESTIMATION METHODS; EXPLICIT REPRESENTATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; LOW FLOW; MANAGEMENT ISSUES; MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; RIO GRANDE; RIVER RUNOFFS; RUNOFF RESPONSE; SEASONAL CYCLE; SEASONALITY; SPATIAL SCALE; STRONG CONTRAST; STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; RIVERS; RUNOFF; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VOLCANIC ROCKS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; BASIN MANAGEMENT; CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE FORCING; COMPARATIVE STUDY; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; FUTURE PROSPECT; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RIVER BASIN; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

BRAZIL; CANADA; CHINA; ENGLAND; HARPERS BROOK; HUNAN; LIARD BASIN; MEKONG BASIN; NORTHAMPTONSHIRE; OKAVANGO BASIN; RIO GRANDE BASIN [BRAZIL]; UNITED KINGDOM; XIANG BASIN;

EID: 79251494118     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-15-279-2011     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Abbott, M. B. and Refsgaard, J. C., Distributed Hydrological Modeling, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1996.
2. Alcamo, J., Doll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rosch, T., and Siebert, S.: Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future "business-as usual" conditions, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 339-348, 2003.
3. Arnell, N. W.: A simple water balance model for the simulation of streamflow over a large geographic domain, J. Hydrol., 217, 314-335, 1999.
4. Arnell, N. W.: Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 619-641, doi:10.5194/hess-7- 619-2003, 2003a.
5. Arnell, N. W.: Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain, J. Hydrol., 270, 195-213, 2003b.
6. Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 14, 31-52, 2004a.
7. Arnell, N. W.: Climate change impacts on river flows in Britain: the UKCIP02 scenarios. J. Chart. Inst. Water E., 18, 112-117, 2004b.
8. Arnell, N. W.: The relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 7633-7667, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-7633-2010, 2010.
9. Arnell, N.W., van Vuuren, D. P., and Isaac, M.: The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources, Global Environ. Change, in press, 2011
10. Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R.: Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development, J. Amer. Wat. Res. Assoc. 34, 73-89, 1998. (Pubitemid 28190080)
11. Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. P. (Eds): Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland, 2008.
12. Beven, K. J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 2001.
13. Biemans, H., Hutjes, R. W. A., Kabat, P., Strengers, B. J., Gerten, D., Rost, S.: Effects of precipitation uncertainty on discharge calculations for main river basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 1011-1025, 2009.
14. Blöschl, G. and Montanari, A.: Climate change impacts - throwing the dice? Hydrol. Process., 24, 374-381, doi:10.1002/hyp.7574, 2010.
15. Boyle, D. P., Gupta, H. V., Sorooshian, S., Koren, V., Zhang, Z., and Smith, M.: Toward Improved Streamflow Forecasts: Value of Semidistributed Modeling, Water Resour. Res., 37, 2749-2759, 2001.
16. Breuer, L., Huisman, J. A.,Willems, P., Bormann, H., Bronstert, A., Croke, B. F.W., Frede, H. -G., Graff, T., Hubrechts, L., Jakeman, A. J., Kite, G., Lanini, J., Leavesley, G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Lindstrom, G., Seibert, J., Sivapalan, M., and Viney, N. R.: Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use, Adva. Water Resour., 32, 129-146, 2009.
17. Carpenter, T. M. and Georgakakos, K. P.: Intercomparison of lumped versus distributed hydrologic model ensemble simulations on operational forecast scales, J. Hydrol., 329, 174-185, 2006.
18. Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T., Hemming, D., and Upadhyaya, H. D.: Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change, Clim. Res., 38, 117-127, 2009.
19. Chiew, F. H. S., Teng, J., Vaze, J., and Kirono, D. G. C.: Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment, J. Hydrol., 379, 172-180, 2009.
20. Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., and Renaud, J-P.: Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes, Hydrol. Proc., 22, 1660-1674, 2007
21. Collischonn, W., Allasia, D. G., Silva, B. C., and Tucci, C. E. M.: The MGB-IPH model for large-scale rainfall-runoff modelling, Hydrol. Sci. J., 52, 878-895, 2007
22. Cuo, L., Lettenmaier, D. P., Mattheussen, B. V., Storck, P., and Wiley, M.: Hydrologic prediction for urban watersheds with the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model, Hydrol. Proc., 22, 4205-4213, 2008.
23. de Fries, R. S., Hansen, M., Townshend, J. R. G., and Sholberg, R.: Global land cover classification at 8 km spatial resolution: the use of training data derived from Landsat imagery in decision tree classifiers., Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 3141-3168, 1998
24. Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Lehner, B.: A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation, J. Hydrol., 270, 105-134, 2003
25. FAO: Digital soil map of the World (CD-ROM), FAO, Rome, 1995.
26. Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., and Doutriaux, C.: Performance metrics for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06104, doi:10.1029/2007JD008972, 2008.
27. Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W.: Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation and sensitivity analysis, Hydrol. Proc., doi:10.1002/hyp.7727, 2010.
28. Gosling, S. N., Bretherton, D., Haines, K., and Arnell, N.W: Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty: Running Multiple Ensembles with a campus grid, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. A, 368, 1- 17, 2010.
29. Gosling, S. N., Lowe, J. A. McGregor, G. R., Pelling, M., and Malamud, B. D.: Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature, Clim. Change, 92, 299-341, 2009.
30. Haddeland, I., Clark, C., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, S., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G., and Yeh, P.: Multi-Model Estimate of the Global Water Balance: Setup and First Results, J. Hydrometeorol., in review, 2011.
31. Hayashi, A., Akimoto, K., Sano, F., Mori, S., and Tomoda, T.: Evaluation of global warming impacts for different levels of stabilisation as a step toward determination of the long-term stabilisation target, Clim. Change, 98, 87-112, 2010.
32. Henriksen, H. J., Troldborg, L., Højberg, A. J., and Refsgaard, J. C.: Assessment of exploitable groundwater resources of Denmark by use of ensemble resource indicators and a numerical groundwater - surface water model, J. Hydrol., 348, 224-240, 2008.
33. Hughes, D. A., Andersson, L., Wilk, J., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Regional calibration of the Pitman model for the Okavango River, J. Hydrol., 331, 30-42, 2006.
34. Hughes, D. A., Kingston, D. G., and Todd, M. C.: Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River Basin as a result of climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 5737-5768, doi:10.5194/hessd-7- 5737-2010, 2010.
35. Jones, R. N., Chiew, F. H. S., Boughton, W. C., and Zhang, L.: Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models, Adv. Water Res., 29, 1419-1429, 2006.
36. Kay, A. L., Davies, H. N., Bell, V. A., and Jones, R. G.: Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England, Clim. Change, 92, 41-63, 2009
37. Kingston, D. G. and Taylor, R. G.: Projected impact of climate change on groundwater and stormflow in a humid, tropical catchment in the Ugandan Upper Nile Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 1913-1944, 2010, http://www.hydrol- earth-syst-sci.net/7/1913/2010/.
38. Kingston, D. G., Thompson, J. R., and Kite, G.: Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 5991-6024, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-5991-2010, 2010.
39. Kingston, D. G., Todd, M. C., Taylor, R. G., Thompson, J. R., and Arnell, N. W.: Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20403, doi:10.1029/2009GL040267, 2009.
40. Kite, G. W.: The SLURP model, in: Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, edited by: Singh, V. P., Water Resources Publications, Colorado, 521-562, 1995.
41. Kite, G. W., Dalton, A., and Dion, A.: Simulation of streamflow in a macroscale watershed using general circulation model data, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1547-1559, 1994.
42. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiḿenez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen Z., and Shiklomanov, I. A.: Freshwater resources and theirmanagement. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173-210, 2007.
43. Ludwig, R., May, I., Turcotte, R., Vescovi, L., Braun, M., Cyr, J.- F., Fortin, L. G., Chaumont, D., Biner, S., Chartier, I., Caya, D., and Mauser, W.: The role of hydrological model complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment, Adv. Geosci., 21, 63-71, 2009, http://www.adv-geosci.net/ 21/ 63/2009/.
44. Majone, B., Bertagnoli, A., and Bellin, A.: Non-linear runoff generation model in small Alpine catchments, J. Hydrol., 385, 300- 312, 2010.
45. Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J., Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema, V. K. C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and Thiele-Eich, I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, doi:10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010.
46. Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvney, B., Mitchell, J. F. B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: TheWCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383-1394, 2007.
47. Mitchell, T. D.: Pattern Scaling: An Examination of the Accuracy of the Technique for Describing Future Climates, Clim. Change, 60, 217-242, 2003.
48. Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, 2005.
49. Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models: Part 1 - a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, 1970.
50. Ńobrega, M. T., Collischonn, W., Tucci, C. E. M., and Paz, A. R.: Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 6099-6128, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-6099-2010, 2010.
51. Prudhomme, C., Jakob, D., and Svensson, C.: Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments, J. Hydrol., 277, 1-23, 2003.
52. Refsgaard, J. C. and Knudsen, J.: Operational validation and intercomparison of different types of hydrological models, Water Resour. Res., 32, 2189-2202, 1996.
53. Stainforth, A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L. A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J., and Allen, M. R.: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, 433, 403-406, 2005.
54. Stainforth, D. A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, E. R., and Smith, L. A.: Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate prediction, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, 2007.
55. Thorne, R.: Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of a subarctic environment: Liard River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 3129-3157, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-3129-2010, 2010.
56. Todd, M. C., Taylor, R. G., Osborne, T., Kingston, D., Arnell, N. W., and Gosling, S. N.: Quantifying the impact of climate change on water resources at the basin scale on five continents - a unified approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 7485-7519, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-7485-2010, 2010.
57. Xu, H., Taylor, R. G., and Xu, Y.: Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the River Yangtze and Yellow Basins, China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 6823-6850, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-6823- 2010, 2010.