Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 117, Issue 11, 2012, Pages

  Dan, Li ^a   Ji, Jinjun ^a   Xie, Zhenghui ^a   Chen, Feng ^a   Wen, Gang ^b   Richey, Jeffrey E ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^b China Clean Development Mechanism Fund   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; REGIONAL PLANNING; RUNOFF; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SOIL MOISTURE; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE PATTERNS; CLIMATE SCENARIOS; HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; JIANGSU PROVINCE; POTENTIAL CHANGE; PRECIPITATION VARIATION; RISING TEMPERATURES; RURAL DEVELOPMENT; SOUTH-TO-NORTH; SURFACE RUNOFFS; VIC MODEL; WATERRESOURCE MANAGEMENT;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EVAPORATION; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; HYDROLOGICAL CHANGE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RUNOFF; SOIL MOISTURE; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

CHINA; HAI BASIN; HUAI BASIN; YELLOW RIVER BASIN;

EID: 84861935737     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011JD017131     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Arnell, N. W. (2003), Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: Future streamflows in Britain, J. Hydrol., 270, 195-213, doi:10.1016/ S0022-1694(02)00288-3. (Pubitemid 36108303)
2. Arnell, N. W. (2011), Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 897-912, doi:10.5194/hess-15-897-2011.
3. Cai, X. M. (2008), Water stress, water transfer and social equity in northern China-Implications for policy reforms, J. Environ. Manage., 87, 14-25, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.12.046. (Pubitemid 351147072)
4. Cherkauer, K. A., L. C. Bowling, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2003), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) cold land process model updates, Global Planet. Change, 38, 151-159, doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00025-0. (Pubitemid 36815067)
5. Chinese Academy of Sciences (2007), Science-based understanding for GEF "Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Water Resources Management and Rural Development" project implementation plan, report, pp. 156, Beijing.
6. Dan, L., J. Ji, and P. Zhang (2005), The soil moisture of China in a high resolution climate-vegetation model, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 720-729, doi:10.1007/BF02918715. (Pubitemid 41440333)
7. Diaz-Nieto, J., and R. L. Wilby (2005), A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: Impacts on low flows in the river Thames, United Kingdom, Clim. Change, 69, 245-268, doi:10.1007/ s10584-005-1157-6. (Pubitemid 40670035)
8. Ding, Y., and X. S. Dai (1994), Temperature variation in China during the last 100 years (in Chinese), Meteorol. Monogr., 20, 19-26.
9. Elsner, M. M., L. Cuo, N. Voisin, J. S. Deems, A. F. Hamlet, J. A. Vano, K. E. B. Mickelson, S. Y. Lee, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2010), Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington state, Clim. Change, 102, 225-260, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0.
10. Food and Agriculture Organization (1998), Digital Soil Map of the World and Derived Soil Properties [CD-ROM], FAO Land and Water Div., Rome.
11. Gong, G. (1985), The primary discussion on the range of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (in Chinese), in The Management and Development of Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, edited by Z. Dakang, pp. 1-8, Science, Beijing.
12. Hamlet, A. F., and D. P. Lettenmaier (1999), Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River basin, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 1597-1623, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04240.x. (Pubitemid 30049352)
13. Kirono, D., K. Hennessy, F. Mpelasoka, and D. Kent (2011), Approaches for generating climate change scenarios for use in drought projections: A review, Tech. Rep. 34, pp. 34, Cent. for Aust. Weather and Clim. Res., Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
14. Liang, X., D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood, and S. J. Burges (1994), A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs, J. Geophys. Res., 99 (D7), 14, 415-14, 428, doi:10.1029/94JD00483.
15. Liang, X., E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier (1996), Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modifications, Global Planet. Change, 13, 195-206, doi:10.1016/0921-8181 (95)00046-1.
16. Liu, S. X., X. G. Mo, Z. H. Lin, Y. Q. Xu, J. J. Ji, G. Wen, and J. Richey (2010), Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China, Agric. Water Manage., 97, 1195-1209, doi:10.1016/j. agwat.2010.03.001.
17. Minville, M., F. Brissette, and R. Leconte (2008), Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed, J. Hydrol., 358, 70-83, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.033.
18. Mo, X. G., Z. H. Lin, and S. X. Liu (2006), Spatial-temporal evolution and driving forces of winter wheat productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai region (in Chinese), J. Nat. Resour., 21, 449-457.
19. Nijssen, B., G. M. O'Donnell, A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2001a), Hydrologic vulnerability of global rivers to climate change, Clim. Change, 50, 143-175, doi:10.1023/A:1010616428763. (Pubitemid 32665128)
20. Nijssen, B., G. M. O'Donnell, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. Lohmann, and E. F. Wood (2001b), Predicting the discharge of global rivers, J. Clim., 14, 3307-3323, doi:10.1175/1520-0442 (2001)014<3307:PTDOGR>2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 33053101)
21. Nijssen, B., R. Schnur, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2001c), Global retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model, 1980-1993, J. Clim., 14, 1790-1808, doi:10.1175/1520- 0442 (2001)014<1790:GREOSM>2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 33050340)
22. Prudhomme, C., R. L. Wilby, S. Crooks, A. L.Kay, and N. S. Reynard (2010), Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: Application to flood risk, J. Hydrol., 390, 198-209, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.043.
23. Qin, D. H., Y. Y. Chen, and X. Y. Li (Eds.) (2005), Climate and Environment Changes in China (I): Climate and Environment Changes in China and Their Projections, pp. 562, Science, Beijing.
24. Ren, G. Y., et al. (2005), Climate changes of China's mainland over the past half century (in Chinese), Acta Meteorol. Sin., 63, 942-956.
25. Song, X. S., P. J. Shi, and R. Jin (2005), Analysis on the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in China owing to uneven regional distribution (in Chinese), Arid Zone Res., 22, 162-166.
26. Su, F., Y. Hong, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2008), Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and its utility in hydrologic prediction in La Plata Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 622-640, doi:10.1175/ 2007JHM944.1.
27. Todd, M. C., R. G. Taylor, T. Osborne, D. Kingston, N. W. Arnell, and S. N. Gosling (2010), Quantifying the impact of climate change on water resources at the basin scale on five continents a unified approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 7485-7519, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-7485-2010.
28. Wang, G. Q., J. Y. Zhang, J. L. Jin, T. C. Pagano, R. Calow, Z. X. Bao, C. S. Liu, Y. L. Liu, and X. L. Yan (2011), Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and VIC model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 7293-7317, doi:10.5194/hessd-8-7293-2011.
29. Winkler, J. A., G. S. Guentchev, T. P. Perdinan, S. Zhong, M. Liszewska, Z. Abraham, T. Niedzwiedz, and Z. Ustrnul (2011), Climate scenario development and applications for local/regional climate change impact assessments: An overview for the non-climate scientist, Geogr. Compass, 5, 275-300, doi:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2011.00425.x.
30. Wu, K., and Y. X. Xu (1997), Environment effects and adjustment and control countermeasures of water resource utilization in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (in Chinese), Acta Geogr. Sin., 52, 114-122. (Pubitemid 28074470)
31. Xia, J., R. Q. Su, X. W. He, and T. Q. Huang (2008), Water resources problems in China and their countermeasures and suggestions (in Chinese), Strategy Policy Discuss. Res., 23, 117-120.
32. Xie, Z. H., Q. Liu, F. Yuan, and H. W. Liang (2004), Macro-scale land hydrological model based on 50 km × 50 km grids system (in Chinese), J. Hydraul. Eng., 5, 76-82.
33. Xie, Z. H., F. Yuan, Q. Y. Duan, J. Zheng, M. L. Liang, and F. Chen (2007), Regional parameter estimation of the VIC land surface model: Methodology and application to river basins in China, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 447-468, doi:10.1175/JHM568.1. (Pubitemid 47091130)
34. Xie, Z. H., M. L. Liang, X. Yuan, F. Chen, C. Z. Liu, and Z. Y. Liu (2009), The response of shallow water table depths to climate change in Huang- Huai-Hai Plain (in Chinese), J. China Hydrol., 1, 30-35.
35. Xu, J. X. (1995), A comparative study on the zonal differences in river runoff and human influence in China (in Chinese), Geogr. Res., 14, 33-42.
36. Ying, A. W. (2006), The investigation and evaluation of ground water (in Chinese), J. China Hydrol., 26, 63-66.
37. Zhang, S. H., G. B. Peng, and M. Huang (2004), The feature extraction and data fusion of regional soil textures based on GIS techniques (in Chinese), Clim. and Environ. Res., 9, 66-79.
38. Zhou, C. C., and Q. T. Zhang (2004), The connotations of water resources crisis and the analysis of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (in Chinese), Territ. Nat. Resour. Study, 1, 79-80.