Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volumn 202, Issue , 2015, Pages 11-25

  Sousa, Pedro M ^a   Trigo, Ricardo M ^a   Pereira, Mário G ^a,b   Bedia, Joaquín ^c   Gutiérrez, Jose M ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LISBON   (Portugal)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TRÁS OS MONTES AND ALTO DOURO   (Portugal)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CANTABRIA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Future projections; Iberian Peninsula; Pyro regions; Regional climate models; Regression models; Wildfires

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; FUTURE PROSPECT; HUMAN ACTIVITY; LAND USE; METEOROLOGY; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; WILDFIRE;

IBERIAN PENINSULA;

EID: 84920132214     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET-IM) Atlas climático de España y Portugal 2011, http://www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/datosclimatologicos/atlas_climatico.
2. Alin A. Multicollinearity. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Comput. Stat. 2010, 2(3):370-374. 10.1002/wics.84.
3. Amatulli G., Camia A., San-Miguel-Ayanz J. Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries. Sci. Total Environ. 2013, 450-451:209-222. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.014.
4. Argüeso D., Hidalgo-Muñoz J.M., Gámiz-Fortis S.R. High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitation over Spain using the WRF model (2070-2099 versus 1970-1999). J. Geophys. Res. D: Atmos. 2012, 117:D12108. 10.1029/2011JD017399.
5. Barriopedro D., Fisher E., Luterbacher J., Trigo R.M., García-Herrera R. The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 2011, 322:220. 10.1126/science.1201224.
6. Bedia J., Herrera S., Gutiérrez J.M., Zavala G., Urbieta I.R., Moreno J.M. Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 12:699-708. doi:10.5194/nhess-12-699-2012.
7. Bedia J., Herrera S., Martín D.S., Koutsias N., Gutiérrez J.M. Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling. Clim. Change 2013, 120:229-247. 10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3.
8. Bedia J., Herrera S., Camia A., Moreno J.M., Gutierrez J.M. Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios. Clim. Change 2014, 122:185-199. 10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z.
9. Brands S., Taboada J.J., Cofiño A.S., Sauter T., Schneider C. Statistical downscaling of daily temperatures in the NW Iberian Peninsula from global climate models: validation and future scenarios. Clim. Res. 2011, 48:163-176. 10.3354/cr00906.
10. Brands S., Gutiérrez J.M., Herrera S., Cofino A.S. On the use of reanalysis data for downscaling. J. Clim. 2012, 25(7):2517-2526.
11. Brovkin V., Boysen L., Arora V.K., Boisier J.P., Cadule P., Chini L., Claussen C., Friedlingstein P., Gayler V., van den Hurk B.J.J.M., Hurtt G.C., Jones C.D., Kato E., Noblet-Ducoudré N., Pacifico F., Pongratz J., Weiss M. Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century. J. Clim. 2013, 26(18):6859-6881.
12. Carvalho A., Flannigan M.D., Logan K., Gowman L.M., Miranda A.I., Borrego C. The impact of spatial resolution on area burned and fire occurrence projections in Portugal under climate change. Clim. Change 2007, 98:177-197. 10.1007/s10584-009-9667-2.
13. Christensen J., Boberg F., Christensen O., Lucas-Picher P. On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, 35:L20709. 10.1029/2008GL035694.
14. Chuvieco E., Deshayes M., Stach N., Cocero D., Riaño D. Short-term fire risk: foliage moisture content estimation from satellite data. Remote Sensing of Large Wildfires in the European Mediterranean Basin 1999, 228. Springer (University of Alcalá, Spain), Berlin. E. Chuvieco (Ed.).
15. Costa L., Thonicke K., Poulter B., Badek F.W. Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages. Reg. Environ. Change 2010, 11(3):543-551. 10.1007/s10113-010-0169-6.
16. The Climate Data Guide: ERA-Interim 2011, Dee D, National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff, Available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/reanalysis/era-interim.
17. Déqué M. Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Glob. Plan. Change 2007, 57:16-26. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030.
18. de la Cueva A.V., del Barrio J.M.G., Quero M.O., Palomares O.S. Recent fire regime in peninsular Spain in relation to forest potential productivity and population density. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2006, 15:397-405. 10.1071/WF05071.
19. Ehret U., Zehe E., Wulfmeyer V., Warrach-Sagi K., Liebert J. HESS opinions should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2012, 9(4):5355-5387. 10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012.
20. Flannigan M.D., Stocks B.J., Wotton B.M. Climate change and forest fires. Sci. Total Environ. 2000, 262(3):221-229. 10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00524-6.
21. Flannigan M., Cantin A.S., de Groot W.J., Wotton M., Newbery A., Gowman L.M. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. For. Ecol. Manag. 2013, 294:54-61. 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022.
22. Frias M.D., Minguez R., Gutierrez J.M., Mendez F.J. Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach. Clim. Change 2012, 113:371-392. 10.1007/s10584-011-0351-y.
23. García-Herrera R., Paredes D., Trigo R.M., Trigo I.F., Hernández H., Barriopedro D., Mendes M.T. The outstanding 2004-2005 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation. J. Hydrometeorol. 2007, 8:483-498. 10.1175/JHM578.1.
24. García-Herrera R., Díaz J., Trigo R.M., Luterbacher J., Ficher E. A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003. Crit. Rev. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2010, 40:267-306. 10.1080/10643380802238137.
25. Garg A., Tai K. Comparison of regression analysis, Artificial Neural Network and genetic programming in Handling the multicollinearity problem. Proceedings of International Conference on Modelling, Identification & Control (ICMIC) 2012, 353-358. IEEE.
26. Gedalof Z.E., Peterson D.L., Mantua N.J. Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States. Ecol. Appl. 2005, 15(1):154-174. 10.1890/03-5116.
27. Gillett N.P., Weaver A.J., Zwiers F.W., Flannigan M.D. Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31:18.
28. Giorgi F., Lionello P. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob. Planet. Change 2008, 63:90-104.
29. Gouveia C., Liberato M.L.R., DaCamara C.C., Trigo R.M. Modelling past and future wine production in the Portuguese Douro Valley. Clim. Res. 2011, 48:349-362. 10.3354/cr01006.
30. Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre- and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 12:3123-3137. 10.5194/nhess-12-3123-2012.
31. Gutiérrez J.M., San-Martin D., Brands S., Manzanas R., Herrera S. Reassessing statistical downscaling techniques for their robust application under climate change conditions. J. Clim. 2012, 26(1):171-188. 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00687.1.
32. Herrera S., Fita L., Fernández J., Gutiérrez J.M. Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the ENSEMBLES regional climate multimodel simulations over Spain. J. Geophys. Res. 2010, 115:D21. 10.1029/2010JD013936.
33. Hawkins D.M. The problem of overfitting. J. Chem. Inf. Comput. Sci. 2004, 44(1):1-12. 10.1021/ci0342472.
34. Hawkins E.D., Osborne T.M., Ho C.K., Challinor A.J. Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2013, 170:19. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007.
35. Hodzic A., Madronich S., Bohn B., Massie S., Menut L., Wiedinmyer C. Wildfire particulate matter in Europe during summer 2003: meso-scale modeling of smoke emissions, transport and radiative effects. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2007, 7(15):4043-4064.
36. Huntingford C., Stott P.A., Allen M.R., Lambert F.H. Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33(5):L05710. 10.1029/2005GL024831.
37. Hurvich C.M., Tsai C.L. Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika 1989, 76(2):297-307. 10.1093/biomet/76.2.297.
38. Ines A.V.M., Hansen J.W. Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulation studies. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2006, 138:44-53. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.009.
39. King K.J., Cary G.J., Bradstock R.A., Marsden-Smedley J.B. Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 2013, 19(4):1223-1235. 10.1111/gcb.12115.
40. Koutsias N., Xanthopoulos G., Founda D., Xystrakis F., Nioti F., Pleniou M., Mallinis G., Arianoutsou M. On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894-2010). Int. J. Wildland Fire 2013, 22:493-507.
41. Krawchuk M.A., Moritz M.A. Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient. Ecology 2010, 92:121-132. 10.1890/09-1843.1.
42. Kraha A., Turner H., Nimon K., Zientek L.R., Henson R.K. Tools to support interpreting multiple regression in the face of multicollinearity. Front. Psychol. 2012, 3(44). 10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00044.
43. Kishore P., Ratnam M.V., Namboothiri S.P., Velicogna I., Basha G., Jiang J.H., Igarashi K., Rao S.V.B., Sivakumar V. Global (50(S-50(N) distribution of water vapor observed by COSMIC GPS RO: Comparison with GPS radiosonde, NCEP, ERA-Interim, and JRA-25 reanalysis data sets. J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. 2011, 73(13):1849-1860. ISSN 1364-6826. 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.04.017.
44. Lavoué D., Liousse C., Cachier H., Stocks B.J., Goldammer J.G. Modeling of carbonaceous particles emitted by boreal and temperate wildfires at northern latitudes. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. (1984-2012) 2000, 105(D22):26871-26890.
45. Maule C.F., Thejll P., Christensen J.H., Svendsen S.H., Hannaford J. Improved confidence in regional climate model simulations of precipitation evaluated using drought statistics from the ENSEMBLES models. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 40(1-2):155-173. 10.1007/s00382-012-1355-7.
46. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Marino y Rural (MARN) Los incendios forestales en españa decenio 1996-2005 2006, (http://www. marm.es/es/biodiversidad/temas/defensa-contra-incendios-forestales/decenio_1996_2005_tcm7-19437.pdf) (accessed 21.09.11).
47. Mérida J.C., Primo E., Eleazar J., Parra J. Las Bases de Datos de Incendios Forestales como herramienta de planificación: utilización en España por el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. Organismo Autónomo de Parques Nacionales, M. de M.A. (Ed.). Proceedings of the 4th International Wildland Fire Conference 2007, [In spanish]. http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/sevilla-2007/contributions/doc/cd/SESIONES_TEMATICAS/ST4/Merida_et_al_SPAIN_DGB.pdf.
48. Mooney P.A., Mulligan F.J., Fealy R. Comparison of ERA-40, ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with observed surface air temperatures over Ireland. Int. J. Clim. 2011, 31(4):545-557. 10.1002/joc.2098.
49. Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., Van Vuuren D.P., Carter T.R., Emori S., Kainuma M., Kram T., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Nakicenovic N., Riahi K., Smith S.J., Stouffer R.J., Thomson A.M., Weyant J.P., Wilbanks T.J. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010, 463(7282):747-756.
50. Pausas J.G., Fernández-Muñoz S. Fire regime changes in the Western Mediterranean Basin: from fuel-limited to drought-driven fire regime. Clim. Change 2012, 110(1-2):215-226. 10.1007/s10584-011-0060-6.
51. Pausas J.G., Paula S. Fuel shapes the fire-climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2012, 21:1074-1082. 10.1111/j. 1466-8238.2012.00769.x.
52. Pereira M.G., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C., Pereira J.M.C., Solange M.L. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2005, 129:11-25. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.12.007.
53. Pereira M.G., Malamude B.D., Trigo R.M., Alves P.I. The history and characteristics of the 1980-2005 Portuguese Rural Fire Database. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 11:1-16. 10.5194/nhess-11-1-2011.
54. Pereira M.G., Calado T.J., DaCamara C.C., Calheiros T. Effects of regional climate change on rural fires in Portugal. Clim. Res. 2013, 57:187-200. 10.3354/cr01176.
55. Randerson J.T., Liu H., Flanner M.G., Chambers S.D., Jin Y., Hess P.G., Pfister G., Mack M.C., Treseder K.K., Welp L.R., Chapin F.S., Harden J.W., Goulden M.L., Lyons E., Neff J.C., Schuur E.A.G., Zender C.S. The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming. Science 2006, 314(5802):1130-1132.
56. Ramos A., Trigo R.M., Santo F.E. Evolution of extreme temperatures in Portugal: reporting on recent changes and future scenarios. Clim. Res. 2011, 48:177-192. 10.3354/cr00934.
57. Ruiter A. Delta-change Approach for CMIP5 GCMs. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute - Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment: Trainee Report 2012, http://www.knmi.nl/bibliotheek/stageverslagen/traineereport_Ruiter.pdf.
58. San-Miguel-Ayanz J., Moreno J.M., Camia A. Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: lessons learned and perspectives. For. Ecol. Manag. 2013, 294:11-22. 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.050.
59. Shimazaki H., Shinomoto S. A method for selecting the bin size of a time histogram. Neural Comput. 2007, 19:1503-1527. 10.1162/neco.2007.19.6.1503.
60. Soares P.M., Cardoso M.R., Miranda P.M., Viterbo P., Belo-Pereira M. Assessment of the ENSEMBLES regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal. J. Geophys. Res. D: Atmos. 2012, 117:D07114. 10.1029/2011JD016768.
61. Soja A.J., Tchebakova N.M., French N.H., Flannigan M.D., Shugart H.H., Stocks B.J., Sukhinin A.I., Parfenova E.I., Chapin F.S., Stackhouse P.W. Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations. Glob. Planet. Change 2007, 56(3):274-296. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028.
62. Sommers W.T., Loehman R.A., Hardy C.C. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: science overview and knowledge needs. For. Ecol. Manag. 2014, 317:1-8.
63. Sousa P.M., Trigo R.M., Aizpurua P., Nieto R., Gimeno L., Garcia-Herrera R. Trends and extremes of drought indices throughout the 20th century in the Mediterranean. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 11(1):33-51. 10.5194/nhess-11-33-2011.
64. Trigo R.M., García-Herrera R., Díaz J., Trigo I.F., Valente M.A. How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32:L10701. 10.1029/2005GL022410.
65. Trigo R.M., Pereira J.M.C., Pereira M.G., Mota B., Calado M.T., DaCamara C.C., Santo F.E. Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal. Int. J. Clim. 2006, 26(13):1741-1757. 10.1002/joc.1333.
66. Trigo R.M., Sousa P., Pereira M.G., Rasilla D., Gouveia C.M. Modeling wildfire activity in Iberia with different atmospheric circulation weather types. Int. J. Clim. 2013, 10.1002/joc.3749.
67. Turco M., Llasat M.C., Tudela A., Castro X., Provenzale A. Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970-2010, NE Spain). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 13:649-652. 10.5194/nhess-13-649-2013.
68. Turco M., Sanna A., Herrera S., Llasat M.C., Gutiérrez J.M. Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections. Clim. Change 2013, 120(4):859-869.
69. Teutschbein C., Seibert J. Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. J. Hydrol. 2012, 456:12-29. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052.
70. van der Linden P., Mitchell J. ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, report. Met Off. Hadley Cent. 2009, 160. Exeter, 1012 UK.
71. Wilks D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences 2011, vol. 100. Academic Press, USA.