Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 56, Issue 3-4, 2007, Pages 274-296

  Soja, Amber J ^a   Tchebakova, Nadezda M ^b   French, Nancy H F ^c   Flannigan, Michael D ^d   Shugart, Herman H ^e,f   Stocks, Brian J ^d   Sukhinin, Anatoly I ^b   Parfenova, E I ^b   Chapin III, F Stuart ^f   Stackhouse Jr , Paul W ^a  

^a NASA LANGLEY RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^b SUKACHEV INSTITUTE OF FOREST   (Russian Federation)

^c ERIM International   (United States)

^d LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^e UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

Author keywords

boreal; climate change evidence; fire; infestation disturbance; montane; treeline progression

Indexed keywords

BOREAL FOREST; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; GROWTH RESPONSE; INDUCED RESPONSE; MIGRATION; MOUNTAIN REGION; OBSERVATIONAL METHOD; PARASITE INFESTATION; PREDICTION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TREELINE; WILDFIRE;

ALASKA; CANADA; EURASIA; NORTH AMERICA; RUSSIAN FEDERATION; SIBERIA; UNITED STATES;

COLEOPTERA; DENDROCTONUS RUFIPENNIS; PICEA; PICEA GLAUCA;

EID: 34247230981     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028     Document Type: Article

References (167)

1. ACIA. Impacts of a Warming Arctic (2004), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
2. Alexeyev V.A., and Birdsey R.A. Carbon storage in forests and peatlands of Russia. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE vol. 244 (1998), U.S.D.A. Forest Service Northeastern Research Station, Radnor
3. Amiro B.D., Todd J.B., Wotton B.M., Logan K.A., Flannigan M.D., Stocks B.J., Mason J.A., Martell D.L., and Hirsch K.G. Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959-1999. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31 (2001) 512-525
4. Amiro B.D., Logan K.A., Wotton B.M., Flannigan M.D., Todd J.B., Stocks B.J., and Mattell D.L. Fire weather index system components of large fires in the Canadian boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13 (2004) 391-400
5. Ananin A.A., Ananina T.L., Darigapova E.A., Puzachenko A.Y., and Fadeev A.S. Climate change influence on biota of the Barguzin Reserve. In: Kokorin A., Kojarinov A., and Minin A. (Eds). Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems. Protected Natural Territories of Russia: Analyses of Long-Term Observations, Moscow (2001) II 1-II 7
6. 2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102 31 (2005) 10823-10827
7. Anisimov O.A., and Belolutskaya M.A. Evaluation of the effect of climate change and permafrost degradation on infrastructure in the northern regions of Russia. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 6 (2002) 9-14
8. Antonovski M.Y., Ter-Mikaelian M.T., and Furyaev V.V. A spatial model of long-tem forest fire dynamics and its applications to forests in western Siberia. In: Shugart H.H., Leemans R., and Bonan G.B. (Eds). A Systems Analysis of the Global Boreal Forest (1992), Cambridge University Press, New York 373-403
9. Apps M.J., Kurz W.A., Luxmoore R.J., Nilsson L.O., Sedjo R.A., Schmidt R., Simpson L.G., and Vinson T.S. Boreal forests and tundra. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 70 1-4 (1993) 39-53
10. Baldocchi D., Kelliher F.M., Black T.A., and Jarvis P.G. Climate and vegetation controls on boreal zone energy exchange. Global Change Biology 6 Suppl. 1 (2000) 69-83
11. Balling R.C., Michaels P.J., and Knappenberger P.C. Analysis of winter and summer warming rates in gridded temperature time series. Climate Research 9 (1998) 175-181
12. Balzter H., Gerard F.F., George C.T., Rowland C.S., Jupp T.E., McCallum I., Shvidenko A., Nilsson S., Sukhinin A., Onuchin A., and Schmullius C. Impact of the Arctic Oscillation pattern on interannual forest fire variability in Central Siberia. Geophysical Research Letters 32 14 (2005) 10.1029/2005GL022526
13. Baranchikov Y.N., Perevoznikova V.D., Kondakov Y.P., and Kirichenko N.I. Zoogenic contribution to carbon emissions from Siberian moth outbreaks. In: Pleshikov F.I. (Ed). Forest Ecosystems of the Yenisei Meridian (2002), Publishing House of Siberian branch of Russian Academy of sciences, Novosibirsk 117-123
14. Barber V.A., Juday G.P., and Finney B.P. Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress. Nature 405 (2000) 668-673
15. Barber V.A., Juday G.P., Finney B.P., and Wilmking M. Reconstruction of summer temperatures in interior Alaska from tree-ring proxies: evidence for changing synoptic climate regimes. Climatic Change 63 1-2 (2004) 30
16. Baumgartner A. Climatic variability and forestry, World Meteorological Organization. Proceedings of the World Climate Conference, Geneva (1979) 581-607
17. Belov S.V. Forest Pyrology (1976), Leningrad Forestry Academy of the USSR, St. Petersburg, Russia (in Russian)
18. Berg E.E., Henry J.D., Fastie C.L., De Volder A.D., and Matsuoka S.M. Spruce beetle outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, and Kluane National Park and Reserve, Yukon Territory: relationship to summer temperatures and regional differences in disturbance regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 227 3 (2006) 219-232
19. Bergeron Y. Is regulated even-aged management the right strategy for the Canadian boreal forest?. The Forestry Chronicle 80 4 (2004) 458-462
20. Bonan, G.B., 1988. Environmental Processes and Vegetation Patterns in Boreal Forests. Dissertation Thesis, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, 297.
21. Bonan G.B. A computer-model of the solar-radiation, soil-moisture, and soil thermal regimes in boreal forests. Ecological Modelling 45 4 (1989) 275-306
22. Bonan G.B. Environmental factors and ecological processes controlling vegetation patterns in boreal forests. Landscape Ecology 3 2 (1989) 111-130
23. Bonan G.B., and Shugart H.H. Environmental-factors and ecological processes in boreal forests. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 20 (1989) 1-28
24. Bonan G.B., Pollard D., and Thompson S.L. Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate. Nature 359 (1992) 716-718
25. Bonan G.B., Chapin III F.S., and Thompson S.L. Boreal forest and tundra ecosystems as components of the climate system. Climatic Change 29 2 (1995) 145-167
26. Budyko M.I., Izrael Y.A., MacCaren M.C., and Hecht A.D. Forthcoming climate change. Hydrometeorizdat (1991), Leningrad (in Russian)
27. Cahoon Jr. D.R., Stocks B.J., Levine J.S., Cofer III W.R., and Pierson J.M. Satellite analysis of the severe 1987 forest fires in northern China and southeastern Siberia. Journal of Geophysical Research 99 D9 (1994) 18627-18638
28. Cahoon Jr. D.R., Stocks B.J., Levine J.S., Cofer III W.R., and Barber J.A. Monitoring the 1992 forest fires in the boreal ecosystem using NOAA AVHRR satellite imagery. In: Levine J.S. (Ed). Biomass Burning and Global Change (1996), MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass 795-801
29. Camill P. Permafrost thaw accelerates in boreal peatlands during late-20th century climate warming. Climatic Change 68 1-2 (2005) 135-152
30. Candau J.-N., and Fleming R.A. Landscape-scale spatial distribution of spruce budworm defoliation in relation to bioclimatic conditions. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35 (2005) 2218-2232
31. Chapin III F.S., McGuire A.D., Randerson J., Pielke Sr. R., Baldocchi D., Hobbie S.E., Roulet N., Eugster W., Kasischke E., Rastetter E.B., Zimov S.A., and Running S.W. Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system. Global Change Biology 6 Suppl. 1 (2000) 1-13
32. Chapin III F.S., Rupp T.S., Starfield A.M., DeWilde L., Zavaleta E.S., Fresco N., and McGuire A.D. Planning for resilience: modeling change in human-fire interactions in the Alaskan boreal forest. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1 (2003) 255-261
33. Chapin III F.S., Peterson G., Berkes F., Callaghan T.V., Angelstam P., Apps M., Beier C., Bergeron Y., Crépin A.S., Danell K., Elmqvist T., Folke C., Forbes B., Fresco N., Juday G., Niemela J., Shvidenko A., and Whiteman G. Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change. Ambio 33 (2004) 344-349
34. Chapin III F.S., Oswood M., Cleve K.V., Viereck L.A., and Verbyla D. Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest (2006), Oxford University Press, Oxford 354
35. Chapin III F.S., Yarie J., Cleve K.V., and Viereck L.A. The conceptual basis of LTER studies in the Alaskan boreal forest. In: Chapin III F.S., Oswood M., Cleve K.V., Viereck L.A., and Verbyla D.L. (Eds). Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest (2006), Oxford University Press, Oxford, Oxford 3-11
36. Chudnikov P.I. Impact of Fire on Regeneration of Urals Forests. Selkhozgiz (1931), Agricultural State Publishing House, Moscow pp. (in Russian)
37. Clark J.S. Effect of climate change on fire regimes in northwestern Minnesota. Nature 334 (1988) 233-235
38. Conard S.G., Sukhinin A.I., Stocks B.J., Cahoon Jr. D.R., Davidenko E.P., and Ivanova G.A. Determining effects of area burned and fire severity on carbon cycling and emissions in Siberia. Climatic Change 55 1-2 (2002) 197-211
39. Dale V.H., Joyce L.A., McNulty S., Neilson R.P., Ayres M.P., Flannigan M.D., Hanson P.J., Irland L.C., Lugo A.E., Peterson C.J., Simberloff D., Swanson F.J., Stocks B.J., and Wotton B.M. Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51 9 (2001) 723-734
40. DeWilde, L., Chapin III, F.S., in press. Human impacts on the fire regime of Interior Alaska: interactions among fuels, ignition sources and fire suppression. Ecosystems.
41. Flannigan M.D., and Harrington J.B. A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada. Journal of Applied Meteorology 27 (1988) 441-452
42. Flannigan M.D., and Van Wagner C.E. Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 21 (1991) 66-72
43. Flannigan M.D., and Wotton B.M. Climate weather and area burned. In: Johnson E.A., and Miyanishi K. (Eds). Forest Fires: Behavior and Ecological Effects (2001), Academic Press 335-357
44. Flannigan M.D., Bergeron Y., Engelmark O., and Wotton B.M. Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming. Journal of Vegetation Science 9 (1998) 468-476
45. Flannigan M.D., Cambell I., Wotton B.M., Carcaillet C., Richard P., and Bergeron Y. Future fire in Canada's boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model-regional climate model simulations. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31 (2001) 854-864
46. Flannigan M.D., Logan K.A., Amiro B.D., Skinner W.R., and Stocks B.J. Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72 1-2 (2005) 1-16
47. Fleming R.A. Climate change and insect disturbance regimes in Canada's boreal forests. World Resource Review 12 3 (2000) 520-554
48. Fleming R.A., Candau J.-N., and McAlpine R.S. Landscape-scale analysis of interactions between insect defoliation and forest fire in central Canada. Climatic Change 55 1-2 (2002) 251-272
49. Folland C.K., Karl T.R., Christy J.R., Clarke R.A., Gruza G.V., Jouzel J., Mann M.E., Oerlemands J., Salinger M.J., and Wang S.W. Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton J.T., Ding Y., Griggs D.J., Noguer M., van der Linden P.J., Dai X., Maskell K., and Johnson C.A. (Eds). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001), Cambridge University Press, New York, USA 99-181
50. Fosberg M.A., Stocks B.J., and Lynham T.J. Risk analysis in strategic planning: fire and climate change in the boreal forest. In: Goldammer J.G., and Furyaev V.V. (Eds). Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia (1996), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Mass 481-494
51. French, N.N.F., 2002. The Impact of Fire Disturbance on Carbon and Energy Exchange in the Alaskan Boreal Region: A Geospatial Data Analysis. Ph.D. dissertation Thesis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 105.
52. Furyaev V.V., and Kireev D.M. A Landscape Approach in the Study of Postfire Forest Dynamics (1979), Nauka, Novosibirsk pp. (in Russian)
53. Gillett N.P., Weaver A.J., Zwiers F.W., and Flannigan M.D. Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters 31 18 (2004) 10.1029/2004GLO20876
54. Girardin M.-P., Tardif J., Flannigan M.D., Wotton B.M., and Bergeron Y. Trends and periodicities in the Canadian Drought Code and their relationships with atmospheric circulation for the southern Canadian boreal forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 34 1 (2004) 103-119
55. Goetz S.J., Bunn A.G., Fiske G.J., and Houghton R.A. Satellite-observed photosynthetic trends across boreal North America associated with climate and fire disturbance. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102 38 (2005) 13521-13525
56. Goldammer J.G. The wildland fire season 2002 in the Russian Federation: an assessment by the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC). International Forest Fire News 28 (2003) 2-14
57. Goldammer J.G., Sukhinin A.I., and Csiszar I.A. The current fire situation in the Russian Federation: implications for enhancing international and regional cooperation in the UN framework and the global programs on fire monitoring and assessment. International Forest Fire News 29 (2003) 89-111
58. Greenbank D.O. Climate and the spruce budworm. Memoirs of the Entomological Society of Canada 31 (1963) 174-180
59. Groisman P.Y., Sherstyukov B.G., Razuvaev V.N., Knight R.W., Enloe J.G., Stroumentova N.S., Whitfield P.H., Forland E., Hannsen-Bauer I., Tuomenvirta H., Aleksandersson H., Mescherkaya A.V., and Karl T.R. Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: changes during the 20th century. Global and Planetary Change 56 (2007) 371-386 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.029 (this issue)
60. Guisan A., Holten J.I., Spichiger R., and Tessier L. Potential Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in the Alps and Fennoscandian Mountains, Geneve (1995) 195
61. Haines D.A. A lower atmospheric severity index for wildland fires. National Weather Digest 13 (1988) 23-27
62. Hansen J.R., Fung I., Lacis A., Lebedef S., Rind D., Ruedy R., Russel G., and Stone P. Global climate changes as forecast by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies three dimensional model. Journal of Geophysical Research 93 (1988) 9341-9364
63. Hansen J.R., Ruedy M., Sato M., and Reynolds R. Global surface air temperature in 1995: return to pre-Pinatubo level. Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996) 1665-1668
64. Harden J.W., Trumbore S.E., Stocks B.J., Hirsch A., Gower S.T., O'Neill K.P., and Kasischke E.S. The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget. Global Change Biology 6 (2000) 174-184
65. Hare F.K., and Ritchie J.C. The boreal bioclimates. Geographical Review 62 (1972) 333-365
66. Harrington J.B., Flannigan M.D., and Van Wagner C.E. A study of the relationship of components of the Fire Weather Index to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada. Rep. PI-X-25, CFS Petawawa Natl. For. Inst. Inf (1983)
67. Heinselman. Fire intensity and frequency as factors in the disturbance and structure of northern ecosystems. In: Mooney H.A., Bonnicksen T.M., Christensen N.L., Lotan J.E., and Reiners W.A. (Eds). Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties. USDA GTR WO-26, Honolulu (1978) 7-57
68. Heinselman M.L. Fire and succession in the conifer forests of northern North America. In: West D.C., Shugart H.H., and Botkin D.B. (Eds). Forest Succession: Concepts and Application (1981), Springer-Verlag, New York 374-405
69. Hinzman L.D., Bettez N.D., Bolton W.R., Chapin F.S., Dyurgerov M.B., Fastie C.L., Griffith B., Hollister R.D., Hope A., Huntington H.P., Jensen A.M., Jia G.J., Jorgenson T., Kane D.L., Klein D.R., Kofinas G., Lynch A.H., Lloyd A.H., McGuire A.D., Nelson F.E., Oechel W.C., Osterkamp T.E., Racine C.H., Romanovsky V.E., Stone R.S., Stow D.A., Sturm M., Tweedie C.E., Vourlitis G.L., Walker M.D., Walker D.A., Webber P.J., Welker J.M., Winker K., and Yoshikawa K. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions. Climatic Change 72 3 (2005) 251-298
70. Huston M., DeAngelis D.L., and Post W.M. New computer models unify ecological theory. Bioscience 38 (1988) 682-691
71. IPCC. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996), Cambridge University Press, New York, USA 572
72. IPCC. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001), Cambridge University Press, New York, USA 881
73. Istomov S.V. The current dynamics of the upper treeline in West Sayan mountains, actual questions of research and protection of the plant world. Transactions of the Reserve "Tigiretky" (2005) 211-214
74. Johnson E.A. Fire and vegetation dynamics: studies from the North American boreal forest. Cambridge Studies in Ecology (1992), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York 125
75. Jorgenson M.T., Racine C.H., Walters J.C., and Osterkamp T.E. Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in central Alaska. Climatic Change 48 4 (2001) 29
76. Juday G.P., Barber V., S.R., Zasada J., M.W., and W. A 200-year perspective of climate variability and the response of white spruce in Interior Alaska. In: Greenland D., Goodin D., and Smith R. (Eds). Climate Variability and Ecosystem Response at Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Sites (2003), Oxford University Press 226-250
77. Kasischke E.S., and Stocks B.J. Fire, climate change, and carbon cycling in the boreal forest. Ecological Studies vol. 138 (2000), Springer-Verlag, New York 461
78. Kasischke E.S., Rupp T.S., and Verbyla D.L. Fire trends in the Alaskan boreal forest region. In: Chapin III F.S., Oswood M., Cleve K.V., Viereck L.A., and Verbyla D.L. (Eds). Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest (2006), Oxford University Press, Oxford 285-301
79. Keyser A.R., Kimball J.S., Nemani R.R., and Running S.W. Simulating the effects of climatic change on the carbon balance of North American high-latitude forests. Global Change Biology 6 Suppl. 1 (2000) 185-195
80. Korovin G.N. Analysis of the distribution of forest fires in Russia. In: Goldammer J.G., and Furyaev V.V. (Eds). Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia (1996), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht 112-128
81. Kurz W.A., Apps M.J., Stocks B.J., and Volney W.J.A. Global climate change: disturbance regimes and biospheric feedbacks of temperate and boreal forests. In: Woodwell G.M., and MacKenzie F.T. (Eds). Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System: Will the Warming Feed the Warming? (1995), Oxford University Press, New York 119-133
82. Larsen J.A. The Boreal Ecosystem. Physiological Ecology (1980), Academic Press, New York 500
83. Lloyd A.H., and Fastie C.L. Spatial and temporal variability in the growth and climate response of treeline trees in Alaska. Climatic Change 52 4 (2002) 29
84. Logan J.A., Regniere J., and Powell J.A. Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1 (2003) 130-137
85. Loucks O.L. Evolution of diversity, efficiency, and community stability. American Zoologist 10 (1970) 17-25
86. Lutz H.J. Ecological Effects of Forest Fires in the Interior of Alaska. Tech. Bull. vol. 1133 (1956), US Department of Agriculture, Washington
87. Lydolph P.E. The Climate of the Earth (1985), Rowman and Allanheld, Totowa, New Jersey 386
88. MacLean D.A., Woodley S.J., Weber M.G., and Wein R.W. Fire and nutrient cycling. In: Wein R.W., and MacLean D.A. (Eds). The Role of Fire in Northern Circumpolar Ecosystems (1983), John Wiley and Sons, New York 111-132
89. Manabe S., and Wetherald R.T. Large scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 44 (1987) 1211-1235
90. Mann M.E., Bradley R.S., and Hughes M.K. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26 6 (1999) 759-762
91. Mattson W.J., and Haack R.A. The role of drought in outbreaks of plant-eating insects. Bioscience 37 2 (1987) 110-118
92. McGuire A.D., Melillo J.W., Kicklighter D.W., and Joyce L.A. Equilibrium responses of soil carbon to climate change: empirical and process-based estimates. Journal of Biogeography 22 (1995) 785-796
93. Mikhailov N.N., and Ostanin O.A. Glaciers Changes of Southern Altai During the 20th Century, Natural Conditions, History and Culture of West Mongolia and Adjacent Regions (2001), Tomsk State University Publishers, Tomsk 20-21
94. Moiseev P.A. Climate change impacts on radial growth and formation of the age structure of highland larch forests in Kuznetsky Alatau. Russian Journal of Ecology 1 (2002) 10-16
95. Myneni R.B., Keeling C.D., Tucker C.J., Asrar G., and Nemani R.R. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386 6626 (1997) 4
96. Nandinsteteg B. Climate change and meteorological study. Dynamics of Biodiversity Loss and Permafrost Melt in Lake Hovsgol National Park, Mongolia. 2003 Annual Report (2003), GEF/World Bank, Ulan-Baatar 3
97. Narozhnyi Y.K., Nikitin V.V., Paromov A.V., Osipov A.V., and Lukianov A.A. The glacier Sofiisky (Altai): a dynamics, glacial- and hydroclimatic regimes and ice volume distribution. Transactions of Glacial Research 93 (2002) 107-122
98. National Assessment Synthesis Team. Climate change impacts on the United States: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Foundation Report (2001), US Global Change Research Program, Washington, D.C.
99. Nesterov V.G. Combustibility of the Forest and Methods for its Determination (1949), USSR State Industry Press
100. Neuvonen S., Niemela P., and Virtanen T. Climatic change and insect outbreaks in boreal forsts: the role of winter tempertures. Ecological Bulletins 47 (1999) 63-67
101. Noskova N.E., Pomanova L.I., and Tretiakova I.N. Peculiarities of generative processes of Siberian conifers in relation with climatic changes. Bulletin of Tomsk State University 10 (2004) 78-81
102. Ovchinnikov D.V., and Vaganov E.A. Dendrochronological characteristics of Larix sibirica L. at the upper tree line in Mountain Altai. Siberian Ecological Journal 2 (1999) 145-152
103. Ovchinnikova N.F., and Ermolenko P.M. Long-term forest vegetation inventories in West Sayan mountains. World Resource Review (2004)
104. Overpeck J.T., Rind D., and Goldberg R. Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343 (1990) 51-53
105. Parfenova E.I., and Tchebakova N.M. Possible vegetation change in Mountain Altai under climate warming and predicted maps. Geobotanical Mapping, 1998-2000 (2000) 26-31
106. Payette S., Delwaide A., Caccianiga M., and Beauchemin M. Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland permafrost over the last 50 years. Geophysical Research Letters 31 18 (2004) 10.1029/2004GLO20358
107. Podur J., Martell D., and Knight K. Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32 2 (2002) 195-205
108. Polozhiy A.V., and Krapivkina E.D. Relics of Tertiary Deciduous Forests in Siberian Flora (1985), Tomsk State University Publishers, Tomsk 158
109. Pozdnyakov L.K. Forest Science on Permafrost (1993), Nauka, Novosibirsk 192
110. Price C., and Rind D. Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies. Journal of Geophysical Research 99 D5 (1994) 10823-10831
111. Rizzo B., and Wilken E. Assessing the sensitivity of Canada's forest to climatic change. Climate Change 21 (1992) 37-55
112. Rowe J.S., and Scotter G.W. Fire in the boreal forest. Quarternary Research 3 (1973) 444-464
113. Rupp T.S., Chapin III F.S., and Starfield A.M. Response of subarctic vegetation to transient climatic change on the Seward Peninsula in northwest Alaska. Global Change Biology 6 (2000) 451-455
114. Serreze M.C., Walsh J.E., Chapin III F.S., Osterkamp T., Dyurgerov M., Romanovsky V., Oechel W.C., Morison J., Zhang T., and Barry R.G. Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Climate Change 46 (2000) 159-207
115. Sharkhuu N. Permafrost study. Dynamics of Biodiversity Loss and Permafrost Melt in Lake Hovsgol National Park, Mongolia, 2003 Annual Report (2003), GEF/World Bank, Ulan-Baatar
116. Shiyatov S.G., Mazepa V.S., Moiseev P.A., and Bratukhina M.Y. Climate change and its impacts on mountain ecosystems of National Park "Taganai" during the last centuries. In: Kokorin A., Kojarinov A., and Minin A. (Eds). Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems. Protected Natural Territories of Russia: Analyses of Long-Term Observations, Moscow (2001)
117. Shugart H.H. Terrestrial ecosystems in changing environments. Cambridge Studies in Ecology (1998), Cambridge University Press, New York pp. xiv, 537
118. Shugart H.H., and West D.C. Forest succession models. Bioscience 30 (1980) 308-313
119. Shugart H.H., Leemans R., and Bonan G.B. A Systems Analysis of the Global Boreal Forest (1991), Cambridge University Press, New York 565
120. Shugart H.H., Clark D.F., and Hill A.J. Ecological models of the dynamics of boreal landscapes. In: Kasischke E.S., and Stocks B.J. (Eds). Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest (2000), Springer-Verlag, New York 389-405
121. Shumilova L.V. Botanical Geography of Siberia (1962), Tomsk University Press, Tomsk 440
122. Shvidenko A., and Goldammer J.G. Fire situation in Russia. International Forest Fire News 24 (2001) 41-59
123. Shvidenko A.Z., and Nilsson S. Extent, distribution, and ecological role of fire in Russian forests. In: Kasischke E.S., and Stocks B.J. (Eds). Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest. Ecological Studies vol. 138 (2000), Springer-Verlag, New York 132-150
124. Smith T.M., and Shugart H.H. The potential response of global terrestrial carbon storage to a climate change. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 70 1-4 (1993) 629-642
125. Smith T.M., and Shugart H.H. The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate. Nature 361 (1993) 523-526
126. Sofronov M.A., Volokitina A.V., and Schvidenko A.Z. Wildland fires in the north of Central Siberia. Commonwealth Forestry Review 77 2 (1998) 124-127
127. Soja A.J., Cofer III W.R., Shugart H.H., Sukhinin A.I., Stackhouse Jr. P.W., McRae D.J., and Conard S.G. Estimating fire emissions and disparities in boreal Siberia (1998 through 2002). Journal of Geophysical Research 109 D14S06 (2004) 10.1029/2004JD004570
128. Soja A.J., Sukhinin A.I., Cahoon Jr. D.R., Shugart H.H., and Stackhouse Jr. P.W. AVHRR-derived fire frequency, distribution and area burned in Siberia. International Journal of Remote Sensing 25 10 (2004) 1939-1960
129. Solomon A.M., and Webb III T. Computer-aided reconstruction of late Quaternary landscape dynamics. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 16 (1985) 63-84
130. Solomon A.M., Delcourt D.C., West D.C., and Blasing T.J. Testing a simulation model for reconstruction of prehistoric forest-stand dynamics. Quaternary Research 14 (1980) 275-293
131. Starfield A.M., and Chapin III F.S. Model of transient changes in arctic and boreal vegetation in response to climate and land use change. Ecological Applications 6 (1996) 842-864
132. Stocks B.J., and Lynham T.J. Fire weather climatology in Canada and Russia. In: Goldammer J.G., and Furyaev V.V. (Eds). Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia (1996), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston 481-494
133. Stocks B.J., and Street R.B. Forest fire weather and wildfire occurrence in the boreal forest of northwestern Ontario. In: Wein R.W., Riewe R.R., and Methuen I.R. (Eds). Resources and Dynamics of the Boreal Zone (1982), Association of Universities of Canadian Universities for Northern Studies, Ottawa, Canada 249-265
134. Stocks B.J., Fosberg M.A., Lynham T.J., Mearns L., Wotton B.M., Yang Q., Jin J.Z., Lawrence K., Hartley G.R., Mason J.A., and McKenney D.W. Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change 38 1 (1998) 1-13
135. Stocks B.J., Fosberg M.A., Wotton M.B., Lynham T.J., and Ryan K.C. Climate change and forest fire activity in North American boreal forests. In: Kasischke E.S., and Stocks B.J. (Eds). Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest (2000), Springer-Verlag, New York 368-376
136. Stocks B.J. The extent and impact of forest fires in northern circumpolar countries. In: Levine J.S. (Ed). Global Biomass Burning: Atmospheric, Climatic, and Biospheric Implications (1991), MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass 197-202
137. Street R.B. Climate change and forest fires in Ontario. 10th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Ottawa, Canada (1989) 177-182
138. Sturm M., Racine C., and Tape K. Climate change: increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature 411 6837 (2001) 546-547
139. Sukhinin A.I., French N.H.F., Kasischke E.S., Hewson J.H., Soja A.J., Csiszar I.A., Hyer E.J., Loboda T., Conard S.G., Romasko V.I., Pavlichenko E.A., Miskiv S.I., and Slinkina O.A. AVHRR-based mapping of fires in Russia: new products for fire management and carbon cycle studies. Remote Sensing of Environment 93 (2004) 546-564
140. Swetnam T.W. Fire history and climate change in giant Sequois groves. Science 262 (1993) 885-889
141. Tape, K., 2004. Shrub Expansion in Arctic Alaska: 50 Years of Change Documented Using Aerial Photography. MS Thesis, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.
142. Tchebakova N.M., Monserud R.A., and Parfenova E.I. Phytomass change in the mountain forests of southern Siberia under climate warming. Proceedings of the First National Conference on Carbon Sequestration (2001) CD: DOE/NETL-2001/1144
143. Tikhomirov B.A. Principle stages of vegetation development in northern USSR as related to climatic fluctuations and the activity of man. Canadian Geographer 7 (1963) 55-71
144. Timoshok E.E., Naroznyi Y.K., Dirks M.N., and Berezov A.A. Experience in combined glaciological and botanical studies on the primary plant successions on young moraines in the Central Altai. Russian Journal of Ecology 34 2 (2003) 91-97
145. Tumel V.F. Changes in the soils and permafrost regimes following vegetation cover burning. Reports of the Permafrost Commission, Issue VIII, Academy of Sciences of the USSR (1939), Leningrad, Moscow
146. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Forest Health Conditions in Alaska - 2004: A Forest Health Protection Report. R10-PR-3 (2005), USDA Forest Service Alaska Region, Anchorage, Alaska
147. Van Cleve K., and Viereck L.A. Forest succession in relation to nutrient cycling in the boreal forest of Alaska. In: West D.C., Botkin D.B., and Shugart H.H. (Eds). Forest Succession: Concepts and Application. Springer Advanced Texts in Life Sciences (1981), Springer-Verlag, New York 185-211
148. Van Cleve K., and Viereck L.A. A comparison of successional sequences following fire on permafrost-dominated and permafrost-free sites in interior Alaska. Permafrost: Proceeding of the Fourth International Conference (1983), National Academy Press, Fairbanks, Alaska 1286-1291
149. Van Wagner C.E. Age class distribution and the forest fire cycle. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 8 (1978) 220-227
150. Van Wagner C.E. Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. For. Tech. Rep. vol. 35 (1987), Canadian Forest Service
151. Van Wagner C.E. The historical pattern of annual area burned in Canada. For. Chron. vol. 64 (1988) 182-185
152. Viereck L.A., and Schandelmeier L.H. Effects of Fire in Alaska and Adjacent Canada - A Literature Review. BLM TR 6 (1980), US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska, Fairbanks
153. Vlasenko V.I. Mapping vegetation dynamics of the Sayan-Shush Reserve. Geobotanical Mapping, 1998-2000 (2000) 32-49
154. Vlassova T.K. Human impacts on the tundra-taiga zone dynamics: the case of the Russian lesotundra. Ambio Special Report (Tundra-Taiga Treeline Research) 12 (2002) 30-36
155. Volney W.J.A., and Fleming R.A. Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 1 (2001) 283-294
156. Walter H. Vegetation of the Earth and Ecological Systems of the Geo-biosphere (1979), Springer-Verlag, New York 274
157. Weber M.G., and Flannigan M. Canadian boreal forest ecosystem structure and function in a changing clime: impact on fire regimes. Environmental Reviews 5 (1997) 145-166
158. Werner R.A., Raffa K.F., and Illman B.L. Dynamics of phytophagous insects and their pathogens in Alaskan boreal forests. In: Chapin III F.S., Oswood M., Cleve K.V., Viereck L.A., and Verbyla D.L. (Eds). Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest (2005), Oxford University Press, Oxford
159. West D.C., Botkin D.B., and Shugart H.H. Forest Succession: Concepts and Application. Springer Advanced Texts in Life Sciences (1981), Springer-Verlag, New York 517
160. Williams D.W., and Liebhold M. Herbivorous insects and global change: potential changes in spatial distribution of forest defoliators. Journal of Biogeography 22 (1995) 665-671
161. Wilmking M., Juday G.P., Barber V.A., and Zald H.S.J. Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline
162. Wotton B.M., and Flannigan M.D. Length of the fire season in a changing climate. Forestry Chronicle 69 2 (1993) 187-192
163. Wotton B.M., Martell D.L., and Logan K.A. Climate change and people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Climatic Change 60 (2003) 275-295
164. Yan X.D., and Shugart H.H. FAREAST: a forest gap model to simulate dynamics and patterns of eastern Eurasian forests. Journal of Biogeography 32 9 (2005) 1641-1658
165. Yaskov M.I., Ugriumov V., Kasenov E., and Krechetov E. New data on climate change in arid territories of southeastern Altai. Natural Conditions, History and Culture of Western Mongolia and Adjacent Regions. Abstracts of the V International Science Conference. 20-24, September 2001, Hovd, Mongolia (2001), Tomsk State University, Tomsk 25-26
166. Zackrisson O. Influence of forest fires on the North Swedish boreal forest. Oikos 29 (1977) 22-32
167. Zoltai S.C., and Martikainen P.J. The role of forested peatlands in the global carbon cycle. In: Apps M.J., and Price D.T. (Eds). Forest Ecosystems, Forest Management and the Global Carbon Cycle. NATO ASI (1996), Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg 47-58