메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 170, Issue , 2013, Pages 19-31

Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe

Author keywords

Bias correction; Calibration; Climate model; Climate projections; Crop model; Delta method; Weather generator

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ASSESSMENT METHOD; CALIBRATION; CLIMATE MODELING; CROP YIELD; ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS; NUMERICAL MODEL; OBSERVATIONAL METHOD; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

EID: 84872893332     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (220)

References (55)
  • 1
    • 1342311227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: estimating change in runoff in southern Africa
    • Arnell N.W., Hudson D.A., Jones R.G. Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: estimating change in runoff in southern Africa. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108:4519-4535.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.108 , pp. 4519-4535
    • Arnell, N.W.1    Hudson, D.A.2    Jones, R.G.3
  • 2
    • 78650118853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • GiST: a stochastic model for generating spatially and temporally correlated daily rainfall data
    • Baigorria G.A., Jones J.W. GiST: a stochastic model for generating spatially and temporally correlated daily rainfall data. J. Clim. 2010, 23:5990-6008.
    • (2010) J. Clim. , vol.23 , pp. 5990-6008
    • Baigorria, G.A.1    Jones, J.W.2
  • 4
    • 58149396190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat
    • Battisti D.S., Naylor R.L. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 2009, 323:240-244.
    • (2009) Science , vol.323 , pp. 240-244
    • Battisti, D.S.1    Naylor, R.L.2
  • 6
    • 33646358960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: creation and analysis of a new gridded data set
    • Caesar J., Alexander L., Vose R. Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: creation and analysis of a new gridded data set. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D05101.
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.111
    • Caesar, J.1    Alexander, L.2    Vose, R.3
  • 8
    • 18544382055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles
    • Challinor A.J., Slingo J.M., Wheeler T.R., Doblas-Reyes F.J. Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles. Tellus A 2005, 57:498-512.
    • (2005) Tellus A , vol.57 , pp. 498-512
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Slingo, J.M.2    Wheeler, T.R.3    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.4
  • 9
    • 62249188927 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change
    • Challinor A.J., Wheeler T., Hemming D., Upadhyaya H.D. Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change. Clim. Res. 2009, 38:117-127.
    • (2009) Clim. Res. , vol.38 , pp. 117-127
    • Challinor, A.J.1    Wheeler, T.2    Hemming, D.3    Upadhyaya, H.D.4
  • 12
    • 79954585763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles
    • Collins M., Booth B.B.B., Bhaskaran B., Harris G.R., Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Webb M.J. Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles. Clim. Dynam. 2011, 36:1737-1766.
    • (2011) Clim. Dynam. , vol.36 , pp. 1737-1766
    • Collins, M.1    Booth, B.B.B.2    Bhaskaran, B.3    Harris, G.R.4    Murphy, J.M.5    Sexton, D.M.H.6    Webb, M.J.7
  • 13
    • 18744391157 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom
    • Diaz-Nieto J., Wilby R.L. A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom. Climatic Change 2005, 69:245-268.
    • (2005) Climatic Change , vol.69 , pp. 245-268
    • Diaz-Nieto, J.1    Wilby, R.L.2
  • 14
    • 0036678509 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting skill limits of nested, limited-area models: a perfect-model approach
    • de Ela R., Laprise R., Denis B. Forecasting skill limits of nested, limited-area models: a perfect-model approach. Mon. Weather Rev. 2002, 130:2006-2023.
    • (2002) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 2006-2023
    • de Ela, R.1    Laprise, R.2    Denis, B.3
  • 15
    • 70350567345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes
    • Fischer E., Schär C. Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes. Clim. Dynam. 2009, 33:917-935.
    • (2009) Clim. Dynam. , vol.33 , pp. 917-935
    • Fischer, E.1    Schär, C.2
  • 16
    • 0034025893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
    • Gordon C., Cooper C., Senior C.A., Banks H., Gregory J.M., Johns T.C., Mitchell J.F.B., Wood R.A. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dynam. 2000, 16:147-168.
    • (2000) Clim. Dynam. , vol.16 , pp. 147-168
    • Gordon, C.1    Cooper, C.2    Senior, C.A.3    Banks, H.4    Gregory, J.M.5    Johns, T.C.6    Mitchell, J.F.B.7    Wood, R.A.8
  • 17
    • 57849158166 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change
    • Gosling S., McGregor G., Lowe J. Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. Int. J. Biometeorol. 2009, 53:31-51.
    • (2009) Int. J. Biometeorol. , vol.53 , pp. 31-51
    • Gosling, S.1    McGregor, G.2    Lowe, J.3
  • 18
    • 34250748467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges
    • Hansen J., Challinor A.J., Ines A., Wheeler T.R., Moron V. Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Clim. Res. 2006, 33:27-41.
    • (2006) Clim. Res. , vol.33 , pp. 27-41
    • Hansen, J.1    Challinor, A.J.2    Ines, A.3    Wheeler, T.R.4    Moron, V.5
  • 19
    • 23944507988 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic disaggregation of monthly rainfall data for crop simulation studies
    • Hansen J., Ines A. Stochastic disaggregation of monthly rainfall data for crop simulation studies. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 2005, 131:233-246.
    • (2005) Agr. Forest Meteorol. , vol.131 , pp. 233-246
    • Hansen, J.1    Ines, A.2
  • 20
    • 79959701847 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of internal variability
    • Hawkins E. Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of internal variability. Weather 2011, 66:175-179.
    • (2011) Weather , vol.66 , pp. 175-179
    • Hawkins, E.1
  • 21
    • 70450173156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
    • Hawkins E., Sutton R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2009, 90:1095-1107.
    • (2009) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1095-1107
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 22
    • 79959592834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
    • Hawkins E., Sutton R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim. Dynam. 2011, 37:407-418.
    • (2011) Clim. Dynam. , vol.37 , pp. 407-418
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 24
    • 84872967490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projecting extreme heat-related mortality in Europe under climate change. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Exeter, UK.
    • Ho, C.K., 2010. Projecting extreme heat-related mortality in Europe under climate change. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Exeter, UK.
    • (2010)
    • Ho, C.K.1
  • 27
    • 0035888557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time structure of observed, GCM-simulated, downscaled, and stochastically generated daily temperature series
    • Huth R., Kysely J., Dubrovsky M. Time structure of observed, GCM-simulated, downscaled, and stochastically generated daily temperature series. J. Clim. 2001, 14:4047-4061.
    • (2001) J. Clim. , vol.14 , pp. 4047-4061
    • Huth, R.1    Kysely, J.2    Dubrovsky, M.3
  • 28
    • 33746881799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulation studies
    • Ines A.V.M., Hansen J.W. Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulation studies. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 2006, 138:44-53.
    • (2006) Agr. Forest Meteorol. , vol.138 , pp. 44-53
    • Ines, A.V.M.1    Hansen, J.W.2
  • 29
    • 80054988347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Enhancing the utility of daily GCM rainfall for crop yield prediction
    • Ines A.V.M., Hansen J.W., Robertson A.W. Enhancing the utility of daily GCM rainfall for crop yield prediction. Int. J. Clim. 2011, 31:2168-2182.
    • (2011) Int. J. Clim. , vol.31 , pp. 2168-2182
    • Ines, A.V.M.1    Hansen, J.W.2    Robertson, A.W.3
  • 30
    • 57049114864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change
    • Liu L., Fritz S., van Wesenbeeck C.F.A., Fuchs M., You L., Obersteiner M., Yang H. A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Glob. Planet. Change 2008, 64:222-235.
    • (2008) Glob. Planet. Change , vol.64 , pp. 222-235
    • Liu, L.1    Fritz, S.2    van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A.3    Fuchs, M.4    You, L.5    Obersteiner, M.6    Yang, H.7
  • 31
    • 77956883074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change
    • Lobell D.B., Burke M.B. On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 2010, 150:1443-1452.
    • (2010) Agr. Forest Meteorol. , vol.150 , pp. 1443-1452
    • Lobell, D.B.1    Burke, M.B.2
  • 34
    • 0030616924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty
    • Mearns L.O., Rosenweig C., Goldberg R. Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Clim. Change 1997, 35:367-396.
    • (1997) Clim. Change , vol.35 , pp. 367-396
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Rosenweig, C.2    Goldberg, R.3
  • 35
    • 0029668197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-wheat: a sensitivity study
    • Mearns L.O., Rosenzweig C., Goldberg R. The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-wheat: a sensitivity study. Climatic Change 1996, 32:257-292.
    • (1996) Climatic Change , vol.32 , pp. 257-292
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Rosenzweig, C.2    Goldberg, R.3
  • 37
    • 45449110437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000
    • Monfreda C., Ramankutty N., Foley J.A. Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. 2008, 22:GB1022.
    • (2008) Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. , vol.22
    • Monfreda, C.1    Ramankutty, N.2    Foley, J.A.3
  • 39
    • 64049109561 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Examining the interaction of growing crops with local climate using a coupled crop-climate model
    • Osborne T., Slingo J., Lawrence D., Wheeler T. Examining the interaction of growing crops with local climate using a coupled crop-climate model. J. Clim. 2009, 22:1393-1411.
    • (2009) J. Clim. , vol.22 , pp. 1393-1411
    • Osborne, T.1    Slingo, J.2    Lawrence, D.3    Wheeler, T.4
  • 41
    • 84872919380 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation
    • Osborne T.M., Rose G., Wheeler T. Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 2013, 170:183-194.
    • (2013) Agr. Forest Meteorol. , vol.170 , pp. 183-194
    • Osborne, T.M.1    Rose, G.2    Wheeler, T.3
  • 42
    • 33644658109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications
    • Palmer T., Doblas-Reyes F., Hagedorn R., Weisheimer A. Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Philos. Trans. B 2005, 360:1991-1998.
    • (2005) Philos. Trans. B , vol.360 , pp. 1991-1998
    • Palmer, T.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.2    Hagedorn, R.3    Weisheimer, A.4
  • 43
    • 33144474167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crop responses to climatic variation
    • Porter J.R., Semenov M.A. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philos. Trans. B 2005, 360:2021-2035.
    • (2005) Philos. Trans. B , vol.360 , pp. 2021-2035
    • Porter, J.R.1    Semenov, M.A.2
  • 45
    • 0035428537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations
    • Räisänen J., Palmer T.N. A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations. J. Clim. 2001, 14:3212-3226.
    • (2001) J. Clim. , vol.14 , pp. 3212-3226
    • Räisänen, J.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 46
    • 70349456137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
    • Schlenker W., Roberts M.J. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. PNAS 2009, 106:15594-15598.
    • (2009) PNAS , vol.106 , pp. 15594-15598
    • Schlenker, W.1    Roberts, M.J.2
  • 48
    • 0028862526 scopus 로고
    • Climatic variability and the modelling of crop yields
    • Semenov M.A., Porter J.R. Climatic variability and the modelling of crop yields. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 1995, 73:265-283.
    • (1995) Agr. Forest Meteorol. , vol.73 , pp. 265-283
    • Semenov, M.A.1    Porter, J.R.2
  • 50
    • 79251481174 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world
    • Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Ericksen P.J., Challinor A.J. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Philos. Trans. 2011, 369:117-136.
    • (2011) Philos. Trans. , vol.369 , pp. 117-136
    • Thornton, P.K.1    Jones, P.G.2    Ericksen, P.J.3    Challinor, A.J.4
  • 51
    • 84872973715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • USDA, Global Crop Production Analysis.
    • USDA, 2012. Global Crop Production Analysis. http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov.
    • (2012)
  • 52
    • 0034019753 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of short episodes of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.)
    • Vara Prasad P.V., Craufurd P.Q., Summerfield R.J., Wheeler T.R. Effects of short episodes of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). J. Exp. Bot. 2000, 51:777-784.
    • (2000) J. Exp. Bot. , vol.51 , pp. 777-784
    • Vara Prasad, P.V.1    Craufurd, P.Q.2    Summerfield, R.J.3    Wheeler, T.R.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.