Eastern Pacific intraseasonal variability: A predictability perspective

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 23, 2014, Pages 8869-8883

  Neena, J M ^a   Jiang, Xianan ^a   Waliser, Duane ^a,b   Lee, June Yi ^c,d   Wang, Bin ^c  

^a Los Angeles   (United States)

^b CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^d Pusan National University   (South Korea)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; METEOROLOGY; STORMS; WIND EFFECTS;

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; COUPLED MODELING; DYNAMICAL PREDICTIONS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY; LARGE-SCALE IMPACTS; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; HINDCASTING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84919681360     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00336.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
2. Fisher, R. A., 1921: On the "probable error" of a coefficient of correlation deduced from a small sample. Metron, 1, 3-32.
3. Fu, X., B. Wang, D. E. Waliser, and L. Tao, 2007: Impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 157-174, doi:10.1175/JAS3830.1.
4. Higgins, R. W., and W. Shi, 2001: Intercomparison of the principal modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American monsoon system. J. Climate, 14, 403-417, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0403:IOTPMO>2.0.CO;2.
5. Huffman, G. J., and Coauthors, 2007: The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 38-55, doi:10.1175/JHM560.1.
6. Jiang, X., and D. E. Waliser, 2008: Northward propagation of the subseasonal variability over the eastern Pacific warm pool. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09814, doi:10.1029/2008GL033723.
7. Jiang, X., and D. E. Waliser, 2009: Two dominant subseasonal variability modes of the eastern Pacific ITCZ. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04704, doi:10.1029/2008GL036820.
8. Jiang, X., M. Zhao, and D. E. Waliser, 2012: Modulation of tropical cyclones over the eastern Pacific by the intraseasonal variability simulated in an AGCM. J. Climate, 25, 6524-6538, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00531.1.
9. Jiang, X., E. D. Maloney, J.-L. F. Li, and D. E. Waliser, 2013: Simulations of the eastern North Pacific intraseasonal variability in CMIP5 GCMs. J. Climate, 26, 3489-3510, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00526.1.
10. Kayano, M., and V. Kousky, 1999: Intraseasonal (30-60 day) variability in the global tropics: Principal modes and their evolution. Tellus, 51, 373-386, doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1999.t01-3-00003.x.
11. Kikuchi, K., and B. Wang, 2009: Global perspectives of the quasibiweekly oscillation. J. Climate, 22, 1340-1359, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2368.1.
12. Kiladis, G. N., J. Dias, K. H. Straub, M. C. Wheeler, S. N. Tulich, K. Kikuchi, K. M. Weickmann, and M. J. Ventrice, 2014: A comparison of OLR and circulation based indices for tracking the MJO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1697-1715, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1.
13. Knutson, T. R., and K. M. Weickmann, 1987: 30-60 day atmospheric circulations: Composite life cycles of convection and circulation anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1407-1436, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1407:DAOCLC>2.0.CO;2.
14. Lau, W. K.-M., and D. E. Waliser, Eds., 2012: Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. 2nd ed. Springer, 613 pp.
15. Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, X. Fu, D. E. Waliser, and I.-S. Kang, 2013: Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Climate Dyn., 40, 493-509, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4.
16. Liess, S., D. E. Waliser, and S. Schubert, 2005: Predictability studies of the intraseasonal oscillation with the ECHAM5 GCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3320-3336, doi:10.1175/JAS3542.1.
17. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and J. Derome, 2008: Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4130-4149, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2459.1.
18. Lin, J.-L., B. E. Mapes, K. M. Weickmann, G. N. Kiladis, S. D. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, J. T. Bacmeister, and M.-I. Lee, 2008: North American monsoon and convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 21, 2919-2937, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1815.1.
19. Lorenz, D. J., and D. L. Hartmann, 2006: The effect of the MJO on the North American monsoon. J. Climate, 19, 333-343, doi:10.1175/JCLI3684.1.
20. Magaña, V., J. A. Amador, and S. Medina, 1999: The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America. J. Climate, 12, 1577-1588, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1577:TMDOMA>2.0.CO;2.
21. Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000a: Modulation of eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 1451-1460, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1451:MOENPH>2.0.CO;2.
22. Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000b: Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Science, 287, 2002-2004, doi:10.1126/science.287.5460.2002.
23. Maloney, E. D., and J. T. Kiehl, 2002: Intraseasonal eastern Pacific precipitation and SST variations in a GCM coupled to a slab ocean model. J. Climate, 15, 2989-3007, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2989:IEPPAS>2.0.CO;2.
24. Maloney, E. D., and S. K. Esbensen, 2005: A modeling study of summertime east Pacific wind-induced ocean-atmosphere exchange in the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 18, 568-584, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3280.1.
25. Maloney, E. D., and S. K. Esbensen, 2007: Satellite and buoy observations of boreal summer intraseasonal variability in the tropical northeast Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3-19, doi:10.1175/MWR3271.1.
26. Maloney, E. D., D. B. Chelton, and S. K. Esbensen, 2008: Subseasonal SST variability in the tropical eastern North Pacific during boreal summer. J. Climate, 21, 4149-4167, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1856.1.
27. Maloney, E. D., X. Jiang, S.-P. Xie, and J. J. Benedict, 2014: Process-oriented diagnosis of east Pacific warm pool intraseasonal variability. J. Climate, 27, 6305-6324, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00053.1.
28. Martin, E. R., and C. Schumacher, 2011: Modulation of Caribbean precipitation by the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 24, 813-824, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3773.1.
29. Moon, J. Y., B. Wang, K.-J. Ha, and J.-Y. Lee, 2013: Teleconnections associated with Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. Climate Dyn., 40, 2761-2774, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1394-0.
30. Neena, J. M., and B. N. Goswami, 2010: Extension of potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon dry and wet spells in recent decades. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 583-592, doi:10.1002/qj.595.
31. Neena, J. M., J. Y. Lee, D. E. Waliser, B. Wang and X. Jiang, 2014: Predictability of the Madden Julian oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE). J Climate, 27, 4531-4543, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00624.1.
32. Pegion, K., and B. Kirtman, 2008: The impact of air-sea interactions on the predictability of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 21, 5870-5886, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2209.1.
33. Rashid, H. A., H. H. Hendon, M. C. Wheeler, and O. Alves, 2011: Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with thePOAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dyn., 36, 649-661, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.
34. Rydbeck, A. V., E. D. Maloney, S.-P. Xie, J. Hafner, and J. Shaman, 2013: Remote forcing versus local feedback of east Pacific intraseasonal variability during boreal summer. J. Climate, 26, 3575-3596, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00499.1.
35. Seo, K.-H., W. Wang, J. Gottschalck, Q. Zhang, J.-K. E. Schemm, W. R. Higgins, and A. Kumar, 2009: Evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models. J. Climate, 22, 2372-2388, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2421.1.
36. Serra, Y. L., G. N. Kiladis, and K. I. Hodges, 2010: Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea. J. Climate, 23, 4823-4840, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3223.1.
37. Small, R. J., S. P. de Szoeke, and S.-P. Xie, 2007: The Central American midsummer drought: Regional aspects and largescale forcing. J. Climate, 20, 4853-4873, doi:10.1175/JCLI4261.1.
38. Small, R. J., S.-P. Xie, E. D. Maloney, S. P. deSzoeke, and T. Miyama, 2011: Intraseasonal variability in the far-east Pacific: Investigation of the role of air-sea coupling in a regional coupled model. Climate Dyn., 36, 867-890, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0786-2.
39. Vitart, F., and F. Molteni, 2010: Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 842-855, doi:10.1002/qj.623.
40. Vitart, F., S. Woolnough, M. A. Balmaseda, and A. M. Tompkins, 2007: Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian oscillation using a coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2700-2715, doi:10.1175/MWR3415.1.
41. Waliser, D. E., 2011: Predictability and forecasting. Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, 2nd ed. W. K. M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, 433-476.
42. Waliser, D. E., K. M. Lau, W. Stern, and C. Jones, 2003a: Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 33-50, doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-1-33.
43. Waliser, D. E., W. Stern, S. Schubert, and K. M. Lau, 2003b: Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 2897-2925, doi:10.1256/qj.02.51.
44. Wang, B., 1992: The vertical structure and development of the ENSO anomaly mode during 1979-1989. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 698-712, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<0698:TVSADO>2.0.CO;2.
45. Wang, B., and Q. Zhang, 2002: Pacific-EastAsian teleconnection. Part II: How the Philippine Sea anticyclone is established during development of El Nino. J. Climate, 15, 3252-3265, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3252:PEATPI>2.0.CO;2.
46. Wang, B., P.Webster, K. Kikuchi, T. Yasunari, and Y. Qi, 2006: Boreal summer quasi-monthly oscillation in the global tropics. Climate Dyn., 27, 661-675, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0163-3.
47. Wang, W., M.-P. Hung, S. J. Weaver, A. Kumar, and X. Fu, 2014: MJOprediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast Systemversion 2. Climate Dyn., 42, 2509-2520, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1806-9.
48. Wen, M., S. Yang, W. Higgins, and R. Zhang, 2011: Characteristics of the dominant modes of atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation over tropical-subtropical Americas. J. Climate, 24, 3956-3970, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3916.1.
49. Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2.
50. Zhang, C., 2005: The Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, doi:10.1029/2004RG000158.
51. Zhang, Q., and H. Van den Dool, 2012: Relative merit of model improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts: The case of climate forecast system MJO prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1045-1051, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00133.1.