Temporal context affects the observed rate of climate-driven range shifts in tree species

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 24, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 44-51

  Renwick, Katherine M ^a   Rocca, Monique E ^a  

^a Veterinary Dentistry and Oral Surgery   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Migration lag; Natural resource management; Range shift; Temporal context; Tree species; Vegetation shifts

Indexed keywords

EID: 84913615754     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12240     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J.A., Wang, T. & Curtis-McLane, S. (2008) Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95-111.
2. Allen, C. & Breshears, D. (1998) Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 95, 14839-14842.
3. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D. & Hogg, E.H. (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 660-684.
4. Bedford, F.E., Whittaker, R.J. & Kerr, J.T. (2012) Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change. Botany, 90, 587-597.
5. Bertrand, R., Lenoir, J., Piedallu, C., Riofrío-Dillon, G., de Ruffray, P., Vidal, C., Pierrat, J.-C. & Gégout, J.-C. (2011a) Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature, 479, 517-520.
6. Bertrand, R., Gégout, J.-C. & Bontemps, J.-D. (2011b) Niches of temperate tree species converge towards nutrient-richer conditions over ontogeny. Oikos, 120, 1479-1488.
7. Bertrand, R., Perez, V. & Gégout, J.-C. (2012) Disregarding the edaphic dimension in species distribution models leads to the omission of crucial spatial information under climate change: the case of Quercus pubescens in France. Global Change Biology, 18, 2648-2660.
8. Bodin, J., Badeau, V., Bruno, E., Cluzeau, C., Moisselin, J.-M., Walther, G.-R. & Dupouey, J.-L. (2013) Shifts of forest species along an elevational gradient in southeast France: climate change or stand maturation? Journal of Vegetation Science, 24, 269-283.
9. Bonan, G.B. (2008) Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science, 320, 1444-1449.
10. Brown, P. & Wu, R. (2005) Climate and disturbance forcing of episodic tree recruitment in a southwestern ponderosa pine landscape. Ecology, 86, 3030-3038.
11. Brubaker, L.B. (1986) Responses of tree populations to climatic change. Plant Ecology, 67, 119-130.
12. Brusca, R.C., Wiens, J.F., Meyer, W.M., Eble, J., Franklin, K., Overpeck, J.T. & Moore, W. (2013) Dramatic response to climate change in the southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona mountain plant transect revisited. Ecology and Evolution, 3, 3307-3319.
13. Chen, I.-C., Hill, J.K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D.B. & Thomas, C.D. (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024-1026.
14. Chen, J., Franklin, J.F. & Spies, T.A. (1993) Contrasting microclimates among clearcut, edge, and interior of old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 63, 219-237.
15. Clark, J.S., Lewis, M. & Horvath, L. (2001) Invasion by extremes: population spread with variation in dispersal and reproduction. The American Naturalist, 157, 537-554.
16. Corlett, R.T. & Westcott, D.A. (2013) Will plant movements keep up with climate change? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28, 482-488.
17. Crimmins, S., Dobrowski, S. & Greenberg, J. (2011) Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations. Science, 331, 324-327.
18. Davis, M. (1986) Climatic instability, time lags, and community disequilibrium. Community ecology (ed. by J. Diamond and T.J. Case ), pp. 269-284. Harper and Row, New York.
19. Davis, M. (1989) Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warming. Climatic Change, 15, 75-82.
20. Davis, M., Woods, K., Webb, S. & Futyma, R. (1986) Dispersal versus climate: expansion of Fagus and Tsuga into the upper Great Lakes region. Vegetatio, 67, 93-103.
21. Devictor, V., van Swaay, C., Brereton, T. etal. (2012) Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nature Climate Change, 2, 121-124.
22. Dobrowski, S.Z. (2011) A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate. Global Change Biology, 17, 1022-1035.
23. Easterling, D.R., Meehl, G., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S., Karl, T. & Mearns, L. (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 2068-2074.
24. Felde, V., Kapfer, J. & Grytnes, J.-A. (2012) Upward shift in elevational plant species ranges in Sikkilsdalen, central Norway. Ecography, 35, 33-46.
25. Gehrig-Fasel, J., Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2007) Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: climate change or land abandonment? Journal of Vegetation Science, 18, 571-582.
26. Gray, S.T., Betancourt, J.L., Jackson, S.T. & Eddy, R.G. (2006) Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine. Ecology, 87, 1124-1130.
27. Grubb, P. (1977) The maintenance of species-richness in plant communities: the importance of the regeneration niche. Biological Reviews, 52, 107-145.
28. Hättenschwiler, S. & Körner, C. (1995) Responses to recent climate warming of Pinus sylvestris and Pinus cembra within their montane transition zone in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Vegetation Science, 6, 357-368.
29. HilleRisLambers, J., Harsch, M.A., Ettinger, A.K., Ford, K.R. & Theobald, E.J. (2013) How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts? Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1297, 112-125.
30. Holtmeier, F.-K. & Broll, G. (2005) Sensitivity and response of Northern Hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 395-410.
31. Holtmeier, F.-K. & Broll, G. (2007) Treeline advance - driving processes and adverse factors. Landscape Online, 1, 1-33.
32. Honnay, O., Verheyen, K., Butaye, J., Jacquemyn, H., Bossuyt, B. & Hermy, M. (2002) Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species. Ecology Letters, 5, 525-530.
33. Iverson, L.R., Schwartz, M.W. & Prasad, A.M. (2004) How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 209-219.
34. Jackson, S.T., Bentacourt, J., Booth, R.R.K., Gray, S.T. & Betancourt, J.L. (2009) Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 106, 19685-19692.
35. Johnstone, J.F. & Chapin, F.S. (2003) Non-equilibrium succession dynamics indicate continued northern migration of lodgepole pine. Global Change Biology, 9, 1401-1409.
36. Jump, A.S., Mátyás, C. & Peñuelas, J. (2009) The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24, 694-701.
37. Kullman, L. & Öberg, L. (2009) Post-Little Ice Age tree line rise and climate warming in the Swedish Scandes: a landscape ecological perspective. Journal of Ecology, 97, 415-429.
38. Landhäusser, S. & Wein, R.W. (1993) Postfire vegetation recovery and tree establishment at the Arctic treeline: climate-change-vegetation-response hypotheses. Journal of Ecology, 81, 665-672.
39. Landhäusser, S.M., Deshaies, D. & Lieffers, V.J. (2010) Disturbance facilitates rapid range expansion of aspen into higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains under a warming climate. Journal of Biogeography, 37, 68-76.
40. Leithead, M., Silva, L.C.R. & Anand, M. (2012) Recruitment patterns and northward tree migration through gap dynamics in an old-growth white pine forest in northern Ontario. Plant Ecology, 213, 1699-1714.
41. Leithead, M.D., Anand, M. & Silva, L.C.R. (2010) Northward migrating trees establish in treefall gaps at the northern limit of the temperate-boreal ecotone, Ontario, Canada. Oecologia, 164, 1095-1106.
42. Lenoir, J. & Svenning, J. (2013) Latitudinal and elevational range shifts under contemporary climate change. Encyclopedia of biodiversity (ed. by S.A. Levin ), pp. 599-611. Elsevier, Oxford.
43. Lenoir, J., Gégout, J.C., Marquet, P.A., de Ruffray, P. & Brisse, H. (2008) A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science, 320, 1768-1771.
44. Lenoir, J., Gégout, J.-C., Pierrat, J.-C., Bontemps, J.-D. & Dhôte, J.-F. (2009) Differences between tree species seedling and adult altitudinal distribution in mountain forests during the recent warm period (1986-2006). Ecography, 32, 765-777.
45. Lenoir, J., Gégout, J.-C., Guisan, A., Vittoz, P., Wohlgemuth, T., Zimmermann, N.E., Dullinger, S., Pauli, H., Willner, W. & Svenning, J.-C. (2010) Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate. Ecography, 2005, 295-303.
46. Lenoir, J., Graae, B.J., Aarrestad, P.A. etal. (2013) Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across northern Europe. Global Change Biology, 19, 1470-1481.
47. McLachlan, J.S., Hellmann, J.J. & Schwartz, M.W. (2007) A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conservation Biology, 21, 297-302.
48. Meier, E.S., Lischke, H., Schmatz, D.R. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2012) Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 164-178.
49. Millar, C.I., Stephenson, N.L. & Stephens, S.L. (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications, 17, 2145-2151.
50. Neilson, R., Pitelka, L., Solomon, A. & Nathan, R. (2005) Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change. Bioscience, 55, 749-759.
51. Normand, S., Ricklefs, R.E., Skov, F., Bladt, J., Tackenberg, O. & Svenning, J.-C. (2011) Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 278, 3644-3653.
52. Overpeck, J., Rind, D. & Goldberg, R. (1990) Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature, 343, 51-53.
53. Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
54. Pennington, W. (1986) Lags in adjustment of vegetation to climate caused by the pace of soil development: evidence from Britain. Vegetatio, 67, 105-118.
55. Peñuelas, J. & Boada, M. (2003) A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain). Global Change Biology, 9, 131-140.
56. Petit, R. & Hampe, A. (2006) Some evolutionary consequences of being a tree. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37, 187-214.
57. Pitelka, L. (1997) Plant migration and climate change: a more realistic portrait of plant migration is essential to predicting biological responses to global warming in a world drastically altered by human activity. American Scientist, 85, 464-473.
58. Rupp, T., Chapin, F.S. III & Starfield, A. (2001) Modeling the influence of topographic barriers on treeline advance at the forest-tundra ecotone in northwestern Alaska. Climatic Change, 48, 399-416.
59. Schwartz, M.W. (1993) Modelling effects of habitat fragmentation on the ability of trees to respond to climatic warming. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2, 51-61.
60. Solomon, A. & Kirilenko, A. (1997) Climate change and terrestrial biomass: what if trees do not migrate? Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 6, 139-148.
61. Stanton-Geddes, J., Tiffin, P. & Shaw, R.G. (2012) Role of climate and competitors in limiting fitness across range edges of an annual plant. Ecology, 93, 1604-1613.
62. Stohlgren, T., Bachand, R., Onami, Y. & Binkley, D. (1998) Species-environment relationships and vegetation patterns: effects of spatial scale and tree life-stage. Plant Ecology, 135, 215-228.
63. Stohlgren, T., Owen, A. & Lee, M. (2000) Monitoring shifts in plant diversity in response to climate change: a method for landscapes. Biodiversity and Conservation, 9, 65-86.
64. Svenning, J.-C. & Sandel, B. (2013) Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change. American Journal of Botany, 100, 1266-1286.
65. Svenning, J.-C. & Skov, F. (2004) Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species. Ecology Letters, 7, 565-573.
66. Svenning, J.-C., Gravel, D., Holt, R.D., Schurr, F.M., Thuiller, W., Münkemüller, T., Schiffers, K.H., Dullinger, S., Edwards, T.C., Hickler, T., Higgins, S.I., Nabel, J.E.M.S., Pagel, J. & Normand, S. (2014) The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates. Ecography, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00574.x.
67. Swetnam, T. & Betancourt, J. (1998) Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate, 11, 3128-3147.
68. Urli, M., Delzon, S., Eyermann, A., Couallier, V., García-Valdés, R., Zavala, M.A. & Porté, A.J. (2014) Inferring shifts in tree species distribution using asymmetric distribution curves: a case study in the Iberian mountains. Journal of Vegetation Science, 25, 147-159.
69. Van Bogaert, R., Jonasson, C., De Dapper, M. & Callaghan, T.V. (2009) Competitive interaction between aspen and birch moderated by invertebrate and vertebrate herbivores and climate warming. Plant Ecology and Diversity, 2, 221-232.
70. Van Bogaert, R., Haneca, K., Hoogesteger, J., Jonasson, C., De Dapper, M. & Callaghan, T.V. (2011) A century of tree line changes in sub-arctic Sweden shows local and regional variability and only a minor influence of 20th century climate warming. Journal of Biogeography, 38, 907-921.
71. Van der Putten, W.H. (2012) Climate change, aboveground-belowground interactions, and species' range shifts. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 43, 365-383.
72. Van der Putten, W.H., Macel, M. & Visser, M.E. (2010) Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2025-2034.
73. Van Mantgem, P.J. & Stephenson, N.L. (2007) Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest. Ecology Letters, 10, 909-916.
74. VanDerWal, J., Murphy, H.T., Kutt, A.S., Perkins, G.C., Bateman, B.L., Perry, J.J. & Reside, A.E. (2012) Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3, 239-243.
75. Vanderwel, M.C. & Purves, D.W. (2014) How do disturbances and environmental heterogeneity affect the pace of forest distribution shifts under climate change? Ecography, 37, 10-20.
76. Villalba, R. & Veblen, T. (1998) Annual- versus decadal-scale climatic influences on tree establishment and mortality in northern Patagonia. The impacts of climate variability on forests (ed. by M. Beniston and J.L. Innes ), pp. 145-170. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
77. Wisz, M.S., Pottier, J., Kissling, W.D. etal. (2013) The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling. Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 88, 15-30.
78. Woodall, C.W., Oswalt, C.M., Westfall, J.A., Perry, C.H., Nelson, M.D. & Finley, A.O. (2009) An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States. Forest Ecology and Management, 257, 1434-1444.
79. Woodall, C.W., Zhu, K., Westfall, J.A., Oswalt, C.M., D'Amato, A.W., Walters, B.F. & Lintz, H.E. (2013) Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 291, 172-180.
80. Zhu, K., Woodall, C.W. & Clark, J.S. (2011) Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change. Global Change Biology, 18, 433-438.