Climate change and terrestrial biomass: What if trees do not migrate?

Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters

Volumn 6, Issue 2, 1997, Pages 139-148

  Solomon, Allen M ^a   Kirilenko, Andrew P ^a  

^a U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change effects; Forest development; Terrestrial carbon; Tree migration; Vegetation models

Indexed keywords

BIOMASS; CARBON DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT; CLIMATIC CHANGE; TREE MIGRATION;

EID: 0031472799     PISSN: 09607447     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2997570     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Brown, S., Sathaye, J., Cannell, M., and Kauppi, P. (1996) Management of forests for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change. (ed. by R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera and R.H. Moss), pp. 772-797. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Chambers, J.C. & MacMahon, J.A. (1994) A day in the life of a seed: movements and fates of seeds and their implications for natural and managed systems. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 25, 263-292.
3. Cubasch, U., Hasselmann, K., Hock, H., Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., Santer, B.C. & Sausen, R. (1992) Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Clim. Dynam. 8, 55-69.
4. Davis, M.B. (1983) Quaternary history of deciduous forests of eastern North America and Europe. Ann. Mo. Bot. Gdns, 70, 550-563.
5. Davis, M.B. (1987) Invasions of forest communities during the Holocene: Beech and hemlock in the Great Lakes Region. Colonization and stability (ed. by A.J. Gray, M.J. Crawley and P.J. Edwards), pp. 373-393. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford.
6. Davis, M.B. (1990) Climatic change and the survival of forest species. The earth in transition: patterns and processes of biotic impoverishment (ed. by G.M. Woodwell), pp. 99-110. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
7. Dixon, R.K., Brown, S., Houghton, R.A., Solomon, A.M., Trexler M.C. & Wisneiwski, J. (1994) Carbon pools and flux of global forest ecosystems. Science, 263, 185-190.
8. Franklin, J.F., Shugart, H.H., & Harmon, M.E. (1987) Tree death as an ecological process. BioScience, 37, 550-556.
9. Gear, A.J. & Huntley, B. (1991) Rapid changes in the range limits of Scots pine 4000 years ago. Science, 251, 544-547.
10. Gifford, R.M. (1994) The global carbon cycle: a viewpoint on the missing carbon sink. Austr. J. Plant Physiol. 21, 1-15.
11. Greco, S., Moss, R.H., Viner, D. & Jenne, R. (1994) Climate scenarios and socioeconomic projections for IPCC WGII assessment. Material assembled for Lead Authors by IPCC WG II TSU, Washington, D.C.
12. Harmon, M.E., Franklin, J.F., Swanson, F.J., Sollins, P., Gregory, S.V., Lattin, J.D., Anderson, N.H., Cline, S.O., Aumen, N.G., Sedell, J.R., Lienkaemper, G.W., Cromack, K. & Cummins, K.W. (1986) Ecology of coarse woody debris in temperate ecosystems. Adv. Ecol. Res. 15, 133-302.
13. Huntley, B. (1991) How plants respond to climate change: migration rates, individualism and the consequences for plant communities. Ann. Bot. 67, 15-22.
14. Huntley, B. & Birks, H.J.B. (1983) An atlas of past and present pollen maps for Europe: 0-13000 BP. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
15. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
16. 2 concentration. Nature, 381, 218-221.
17. Keeling, C.D., Whorf, T.P., Wahlen, M. & van der Plicht, J. (1995) Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980. Nature, 375, 666-670.
18. King, G.A. & A.A. Herstrom. (1996) Holocene tree migration rates objectively determined from fossil pollen data. Past and future rapid environmental changes: the spatial and evolutionary responses of terrestrial biota (ed. by B. Huntley, W.P. Cramer, A.V. Morgan, H.C. Prentice and J.R.M. Allen), pp.91-101. Springer-Verlag, New York.
19. 2 to the atmosphere. Water, Air Soil Pollut. 64, 345-363.
20. Kirilenko, A.P., Belotelov, N.V. & Bogatyrev, B.G. (1994) Modeling of vegetation zone shifts under climate instability. Dok. Ross. Akad. Nauk, 338, 116-118 (in Russian).
21. Kirilenko, A.P. & Solomon, A.M. (1996) Modelling dynamic vegetation response to rapid climate change based on bioclimatic classification. Clim Change (in press).
22. Kirschbaum, M. & Fischlin, A. (1996) Climate change impacts on forests, Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change (ed. by R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera and R.H. Moss), pp. 131-158. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
23. Kuusela, K. (1990) The dynamics of boreal coniferous forests. Finnish National Fund for Research and Development No. 112, Helsinki, Finland.
24. Leemans, R. & Cramer, W.P. (1991) The IIASA database for mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation and cloudiness on a global terrestrial grid. RR 91-018. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
25. Lugo, A.E. (1992) Comparison of tropical tree plantations with secondary forests of similar age. Ecol. Monogr. 62, 1-41.
26. MacDonald, G.M., Edwards, T.W.D., Moser, K.A., Pienitz, R. & Smol, J.P. (1993) Rapid response of treeline vegetation and lakes to past climate warming. Nature, 361, 243-246.
27. 2: Part I, annual mean response. J. Clim. 5, 105-126.
28. Melillo, J.R., McGuire, A.D., Kicklighter, D.W., Moore, B., Vorosmarty, C.J. & Schloss, A.L. (1993) Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production. Nature, 363, 234-239.
29. Murphy J.M. & Mitchell J.F.B. (1995) Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing carbon dioxide. Part II: Spatial and temporal structure of the response. J. Clim. 8, 57-80.
30. Nielson, R.P. (1995) A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecol. Appl. 5, 362-385.
31. Oliver, C.D. & Larson, B.C. (1990) Forest stand dynamics. McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York.
32. Olson, J. S., Watts, J. A., Allison, L. J. (1983). Carbon in live vegetation of major world ecosystems. ORNL-5862, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge TN, USA.
33. Overpeck, J.T., Rind, D. & Goldberg, R. (1990) Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature, 343, 51-53.
34. Overpeck, J.T., Webb, R.S. & Webb, T., III. (1992) Mapping eastern North American vegetation change over the past 18,000 years: No-analogs and the future. Geology, 20, 1071-1074.
35. Prentice, K.C. & Fung, I.Y. (1990) The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to climate change. Nature, 346, 48-50.
36. Prentice, I.C., Cramer, W.P., Harrison, S.P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R.A. & Solomon, A.M. (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J. Biogeogr. 19, 117-134.
37. Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T., Lautenschlager, M., Harrison, S.P., Denissenko, O. & Bartlein, P.J. (1993) Modelling global vegetation patterns and terrestrial carbon storage at the last glacial maximum. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. Letts, 3, 67-76.
38. Ritchie, J.C. & MacDonald, G.M. (1986) The patterns of post-glacial spread of white spruce. J. Biogeogr. 13, 527-540.
39. Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Barnett, T.P. & Anyamba, E. (1996). Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change (ed. by J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, N. Kattenberg and K. Maskell), pp. 407-443. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
40. Sedjo, R.A. & Solomon, A.M. (1989) Climate and forests. Greenhouse warming: abatement and adaptation (ed. by N.J. Rosenburg, W.E. Easterling, P.R. Crosson and J. Darmstadter), pp. 105-119. Resources for the Future, Washington.
41. Shugart, H.H. (1984) A theory of forest dynamics. Springer-Verlag, New York.
42. 2-induced climate change: Comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models. Clim. Change, 21, 367-384.
43. Smith, T.M., Shugart, H.H., Bonan, G.B. & Smith, J.B. (1992b) Modeling the potential response of vegetation to global climate change. Adv. Ecol. Res. 22, 93-116.
44. Smith, T.M. & Shugart, H.H. (1993a) The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate. Nature, 361, 523-526.
45. Smith, T.M. & Shugart, H.H. (1993b) The potential response of global terrestrial carbon to a climate change. Water, Air, Soil Pollut. 70, 629-642
46. 2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America. Oecologia, 68, 567-579.
47. Solomon, A.M. (1996) Natural migration rates of trees: Global terrestrial carbon cycle implications. Past and future rapid environmental changes: the spatial and evolutionary responses of terrestrial biota (ed. by B. Huntley, W.P. Cramer, A.V. Morgan, H.C. Prentice, and J.R.M. Allen) pp. 455-468. Springer-Verlag, New York.
48. Solomon, A.M. & Bartlein, P.J. (1992) Past and future climate change: response by mixed deciduous-coniferous forest ecosystems in northern Michigan. Can. J. For. Res. 22, 1727-1738.
49. Solomon, A.M. & Leemans, R. (1990) Climatic change and landscape ecological response: issues and analysis. Landscape ecological impact of climatic change (ed. by M.M. Boer and R.S. de Groot), pp. 293-316. IOS Press, Amsterdam.
50. Solomon, A.M., Prentice, I.C., Leemans, R. & Cramer, W.P. (1993) The interaction of climate and land use in future terrestrial carbon storage and release. Water, Air, Soil Pollut. 70, 595-614.
51. Solomon, A.M., Ravindranath, N.H., Stewart, R.B., Nilsson, S. & Weber, M. (1996) Wood production under changing climate and land use. Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change (ed. by R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera and R.H. Moss), pp. 487-510. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
52. Tilman, D. (1996) Biodiversity: population versus ecosystem stability. Ecology, 77, 350-363.
53. Tilman, D., Wedin, D. & Knops, J. (1996) Productivity and sustainability influenced by biodiversity in grassland ecosystems. Nature, 379, 718-720.
54. Waring, R.H. (1987) Characteristics of trees predisposed to die. BioScience, 37, 569-574.
55. 2 concentrations. Nature, 379, 240-243.