Marine Ecosystem regime shifts: Challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 370, Issue 1659, 2015, Pages 1-8

  Levin, Phillip S ^a   Möllmann, Christian ^b  

^a NORTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

Author keywords

Ecosystem indicators; Ecosystem Based management; Integrated ecosystem assessment; Management strategy evaluation; Regime shift; Risk assessment

Indexed keywords

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; INTEGRATED APPROACH; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; MARINE POLICY; SIMULATION;

EID: 84911874816     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0275     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Möllmann C, Diekmann R. 2012 Marine ecosystem regime shifts induced by climate and overfishing: a review for the Northern Hemisphere. Adv. Ecol. Res. 47, 303-347. (doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-398315-2.00004-1)
2. Lees K, Pitois S, Scott C, Frid C, Mackinson S. 2006 Characterizing regime shifts in the marine environment. Fish Fish. 7, 104-127. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2006.00215.x)
3. Scheffer M et al. 2012 Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338, 344-348. (doi:10.1126/science.1225244).
4. Scheffer M et al. 2009 Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53-59. (doi:10.1038/nature08227)
5. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B. 2001 Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591-596. (doi:10.1038/35098000)
6. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR. 2003 Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 18, 648-656. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2003.09.002)
7. Curtin R, Prellezo R. 2010 Understanding marine ecosystem based management: a literature review. Mar. Policy 34, 821-830. (doi:10.1016/j.marpol. 2010.01.003)
8. Arkema KK, Abramson SC, Dewsbury BM. 2006 Marine ecosystem-based management: from characterization to implementation. Front. Ecol. Environ. 4, 525-532. (doi:10.1890/1540-9295(2006)4[525:MEMFCT]2.0.CO;2)
9. Möllmann C et al. 2013 Implementing ecosystembased fisheries management: from single-species to integrated ecosystem assessment and advice for Baltic Sea fish stocks. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71, 1187-1197. (doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst123)
10. Foley MM, Armsby MH, Prahler EE, Caldwell MR, Erickson AL, Kittinger JN, Crowder LB, Levin PS. 2013 Improving ocean management through the use of ecological principles and integrated ecosystem assessments. Bioscience 63, 619-631. (doi:10.1525/bio.2013.63.8.5)
11. Levin PS et al. 2013 Guidance for implementation of integrated ecosystem assessments: a US perspective. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71, 1198-1204. (doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst112)
12. Samhouri JF, Haupt AJ, Levin PS, Link JS, Shuford R. 2013 Lessons learned from developing integrated ecosystem assessments to inform marine ecosystem-based management in the USA. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71, 1205-1215. (doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst141)
13. Tallis H, Levin PS, Ruckelshaus M, Lester SE, McLeod KL, Fluharty DL, Halpern BS. 2010 The many faces of ecosystem-based management: making the process work today in real places. Mar. Policy 34, 340-348. (doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2009.08.003)
14. Levin PS, Fogarty MJ, Murawski SA, Fluharty D. 2009 Integrated ecosystem assessments: developing the scientific basis for ecosystem-based management of the ocean. PLoS Biol. 7, e1000014. (doi:1000010.1001371/journal.pbio.1000014)
15. Halpern BS, McLeod KL, Rosenberg AA, Crowder LB. 2008 Managing for cumulative impacts in ecosystem-based management through ocean zoning. Ocean Coast. Manage. 51, 203-211. (doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2007.08.002)
16. Ellner S, Turchin P. 1995 Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time-series analysis. Am. Nat. 343-375. (doi:10.1086/285744)
17. Hughes T. 1994 Catastrophes, phase shifts, and large-scale degradation of a Caribbean coral reef. Science 265, 1547-1551. (doi:10.1126/science.265.5178.1547)
18. Andres N, Witman J. 1995 Trends in community structure on a Jamaican reef. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 118, 305-310. (doi:10.3354/meps118305)
19. Möllmann C, Diekmann R, Müller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G, Plikshs M, Axe P. 2009 Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 1377-1393. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x)
20. Casini M, Lövgren J, Hjelm J, Cardinale M, Molinero J-C, Kornilovs G. 2008 Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem. Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 1793-1801. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1752)
21. Möllmann C, Müller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G, St John MA. 2008 Effects of climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, and feedback loops in a simple ecosystem. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 65, 302-310. (doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm197)
22. McLeod K, Leslie H. 2009 Ecosystem-based management for the oceans. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
23. Leslie HM, McLeod KL. 2007 Confronting the challenges of implementing marine ecosystembased management. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5, 540-548. (doi:10.1890/060093)
24. Estes JA, Palmisano JF. 1974 Sea otters: their role in structuring nearshore communities. Science 185, 1058-1060. (doi:10.1126/science.185.4156.1058)
25. Sloan NA, Dick L. 2012 Sea otters of Haida Gwaii: icons in human-ocean relations. Skidegate, Canada: Haida Gwaii Museum.
26. Casini M, Blenckner T, Möllmann C, Gårdmark A, Lindegren M, Llope M, Kornilovs G, Plikshs M, Stenseth NC. 2012 Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 8185-8189. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1113286109)
27. Dietz T, Ostrom E, Stern PC. 2003 The struggle to govern the commons. Science 302, 1907-1912. (doi:10.1126/science.1091015).
28. Almany GR. 2003 Priority effects in coral reef fish communities. Ecology 84, 1920-1935. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[1920:PEICRF]2.0.CO;2)
29. Levin PS, Holmes EE, Piner KR, Harvey CJ. 2006 Shifts in a Pacific ocean fish assemblage: the potential influence of exploitation. Conserv. Biol. 20, 1181-1190. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00400.x)
30. Harvey CJ, Tolimieri N, Levin PS. 2006 Changes in body size, abundance, and energy allocation in rockfish assemblages of the Northeast Pacific. Ecol. Appl. 16, 1502-1515. (doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[1502:CIBSAA]2.0.CO;2)
31. deReynier YL, Levin PS, Shoji NL. 2010 Bringing stakeholders, scientists, and managers together through an integrated ecosystem assessment process. Mar. Policy 34, 534-540. (doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2009.10.010)
32. Kushner B, Edwards P, Burke L, Cooper E. 2011 Coral reefs, beach erosion and impacts to tourism in Jamaica. Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
33. Alexander KE et al. 2009 Gulf of Maine cod in 1861: historical analysis of fishery logbooks, with ecosystem implications. Fish Fish. 10, 428-449. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2009.00334.x)
34. Myers RA, Hutchings JA, Barrowman NJ. 1997 Why do fish stocks collapse? The example of cod in Atlantic Canada. Ecol. Appl. 7, 91-106. (doi:10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0091:WDFSCT]2.0.CO;2)
35. Crépin A-S, Biggs R, Polasky S, Troell M, de Zeeuw A. 2012 Regime shifts and management. Ecol. Econ. 84, 15-22. (doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.09.003)
36. Estes JA, Steneck RS, Lindberg DR. 2013 Exploring the consequences of species interactions through the assembly and disassembly of food webs: a Pacific-Atlantic comparison. Bull. Mar. Sci. 89, 11-29. (doi:10.5343/bms.2011.1122)
37. Link JS. 2005 Translating ecosystem indicators into decision criteria. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62, 569. (doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.12.015)
38. Kershner J, Samhouri JF, James CA, Levin PS. 2011 Selecting indicator portfolios for marine species and food webs: a Puget Sound case study. PLoS ONE 6, e25248. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0025248)
39. James CA, Kershner J, Samhouri J, O’Neill S, Levin PS. 2012 A methodology for evaluating and ranking water quantity indicators in support of ecosystembased management. Environ. Manage. 49, 703-719. (doi:10.1007/s00267-012-9808-7)
40. Rice JC, Rochet MJ. 2005 A framework for selecting a suite of indicators for fisheries management. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62, 516-527. (doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.003)
41. Shin Y-J, Shannon LJ. 2010 Using indicators for evaluating, comparing, and communicating the ecological status of exploited marine ecosystems.1. The IndiSeas project. ICES J. Mar. Sci. J. Conseil 67, 686-691. (doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp273)
42. Hare SR, Mantua NJ. 2000 Empirical indicators of climate variability and ecosystem response since 1965. Prog. Oceanogr. 47, 103-145. (doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1)
43. Peterson WT, Schwing FB. 2003 A new climate regime in northeast Pacific ecosystems. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1896. (doi:10.1029/2003GL017528)
44. Dakos V, van Nes EH, Donangelo R, Fort H, Scheffer M. 2010 Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theor. Ecol. 3, 163-174. (doi:10.1007/s12080-009-0060-6)
45. Carpenter S, Brock W. 2006 Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol. Lett. 9, 311-318. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00877.x)
46. Carpenter S, Brock W, Cole J, Kitchell J, Pace M. 2008 Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecol. Lett. 11, 128-138. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01131.x)
47. Carpenter S, Brock W. 2011 Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach. Ecology 92, 2196-2201. (doi:10.1890/11-0716.1)
48. Dakos V, Van Nes EH, D’Odorico P, Scheffer M. 2012 Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down. Ecology 93, 264-271. (doi:10.1890/11-0889.1)
49. Litzow MA, Urban JD, Laurel BJ. 2008 Increased spatial variance accompanies reorganization of two continental shelf ecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 18, 1331-1337. (doi:10.1890/07-0998.1)
50. Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP, Gårdmark A, Kornilovs G, Otto SA, Möllmann C. 2012 Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. PLoS ONE 7, e38410. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038410)
51. Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP, Gårdmark A, Kornilovs G, Otto SA, Möllmann C. 2012 Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. PLoS ONE 7, e38410. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038410)
52. Held H, Kleinen T. 2004 Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L23207. (doi:10.1029/2004GL020972)
53. Halpern BS et al. 2008 A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319, 948. (doi:10.1126/science.1149345)
54. Bullock JM, Aronson J, Newton AC, Pywell RF, Rey-Benayas JM. 2011 Restoration of ecosystem services and biodiversity: conflicts and opportunities. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26, 541-549. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.011)
55. Lotze HK, Coll M, Magera AM, Ward-Paige C, Airoldi L. 2011 Recovery of marine animal populations and ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26, 595-605. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.07.008)
56. Cardoso P, Bankovic M, Raffaelli D, Pardal M. 2007 Polychaete assemblages as indicators of habitat recovery in a temperate estuary under eutrophication. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 71, 301-308. (doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2006.08.002)
57. Hobday AJ et al. 2011 Ecological risk assessment for the effects of fishing. Fish. Res. 108, 372-384. (doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.01.013)
58. Samhouri JF, Levin PS. 2012 Linking land-and seabased activities to risk in coastal ecosystems. Biol. Conserv. 145, 118-129. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.021)
59. Daw TM, Robinson J, Graham NA. 2011 Perceptions of trends in Seychelles artisanal trap fisheries: comparing catch monitoring, underwater visual census and fishers’ knowledge. Environ. Conserv. 38, 75-88. (doi:10.1017/S0376892910000901)
60. Niiranen S, Yletyinen J, Tomczak MT, Blenckner T, Hjerne O, MacKenzie BR, Müller-Karulis B, Neumann T, Meier H. 2013 Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 3327-3342. (doi:10.1111/gcb.12309)
61. Fulton EA et al. 2011 Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience. Fish Fish. 12, 171-188. (doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2011.00412.x)
62. Llope M, Daskalov GM, Rouyer TA, Mihneva V, Chan K-S, Grishin AN, Stenseth NC. 2011 Overfishing of top predators eroded the resilience of the Black Sea system regardless of the climate and anthropogenic conditions. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 1251-1265. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02331.x)
63. Blenckner T, Llope M, Möllmann C, Voss R, Quaas MF, Casini M, Lindegren M, Folke C, Stenseth NC. In press. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci.
64. Williams A, Dowdney J, Smith ADM, Hobday AJ, Fuller M. 2011 Evaluating impacts of fishing on benthic habitats: a risk assessment framework applied to Australian fisheries. Fish. Res. 112, 154-167. (doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.01.028)
65. Kaplan IC, Leonard J. 2012 From krill to convenience stores: forecasting the economic and ecological effects of fisheries management on the US West Coast. Mar. Policy 36, 947-954. (doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2012.02.005)
66. Alcamo J. 2008 Environmental futures: the practice of environmental scenario analysis. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.
67. Raskin PD. 2005 Global scenarios: background review for the millennium ecosystem assessment. Ecosystems 8, 133-142. (doi:10.1007/s10021-004-0074-2)
68. Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA. 2007 Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process-a framework and guidance. Environ. Model. Softw. 22, 1543-1556. (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004)
69. Swart RJ, Raskin P, Robinson J. 2004 The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Glob. Environ. Change 14, 137-146. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.002)
70. Alcamo J, van Vuuren D, Ringler C, Cramer W, Masui T, Alder J, Schulze K. 2005 Changes in nature’s balance sheet: model-based estimates of future worldwide ecosystem services. Ecol. Soc. 10, 19. (http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol10/iss12/art19/)
71. Caswell H. 2000 Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and interpretation. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
72. Francis TB, Scheuerell MD, Brodeur RD, Levin PS, Ruzicka JJ, Tolimieri N, Peterson WT. 2012 Climate shifts the interaction web of a marine plankton community. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 2498-2508. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02702.x)
73. World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987 Our common future. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
74. Poe MR, Norman KC, Levin PS. 2013 Cultural dimensions of socioecological systems: key connections and guiding principles for conservation in coastal environments. Conserv. Lett. 7, 166-175. (doi:10.1111/conl.12068)
75. Polasky S, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Keeler B. 2011 Decisionmaking under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26, 398-404. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007)