Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: A discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

Global Change Biology

Volumn 15, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 1377-1393

  Möllmann, Christian ^a   Diekmann, Rabea ^a,b   Müller karulis, Bürbel ^a,b   Kornilovs, Georgs ^b,c   Plikshs, Maris ^d   Axe, Philip ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

^b TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK   (Denmark)

^c LATVIAN INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC ECOLOGY   (Latvia)

^d Latvian Fish Resources Agency   (Latvia)

^e Swedish Meteorological   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Baltic Sea; Climate; Eutrophication; Fisheries; Hysteresis; Regimeshift; Resilience

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; CONSERVATION STATUS; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; EUTROPHICATION; FISHERY; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; OVERFISHING;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA;

EID: 65549163145     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Alheit J, Möllmann C, Dutz J, Kornilovs G, Löwe P, Mohrholz V, Wasmund N (2005) Synchronous ecological regime shifts in the North and Central Baltic Sea in 1987-88. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62, 1205-1215.
2. Bakun A (2005) Regime shifts. In: The Sea, Vol. 13, The Global Coastal Ocean, Multiscale Interdisciplinary Processes (eds Robinson AR, Brink K), pp. 971-1026. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
3. Bakun A (2006) Wasp-waist populations and marine ecosystem dynamics: navigating the "predator pit" topographies. Progress in Oceanography, 68, 271-288.
4. Bakun A, Weeks SJ (2006) Adverse feedback sequences in exploited marine systems: Are deliberate interruptive actions warranted? Fish and Fisheries, 7, 316-333.
5. Beaugrand G (2004) The North Sea regime shift: Evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. Progress in Oceanography, 60, 245-262.
6. Beaugrand G, Brander KM, Lindley J, Souissi S, Reid PC (2003) Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature, 426, 661-664.
7. Berkeley SA, Chapma C, Sogard SM (2004) Maternal age as a determinant of larval growth and survival in a marine fish, Sebastes melanopses. Ecology, 85, 1258-1264.
8. Browman HI, Stergiou KI (2004) Perspectives on ecosystem-based approaches to the management of marine resources. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 274, 269-303.
9. Choi JS, Frank KT, Petrie BD, Leggett BD (2005) Integrated ecosystem assessment of a large marine ecosystem: A case study of the devolution of the Eastern Scotian Shelf, Canada. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review, 43, 47-67.
10. Cloern JE (2001) Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 210, 223-253.
11. Collie JS, Richardson K, Steele JH (2004) Regime shifts: Can theory illuminate the mechanisms? Progress in Oceanography, 60, 281-302.
12. Conley DJ, Humborg C, Rahm L, Savchuk OP, Wulff F (2002) Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and basin-scale changes in phosphorus biogeochemistry. Environmental Science and Technology, 36, 5315-5320.
13. Cury P, Shannon LJ (2004) Regime shifts in the Benguela ecosystem: facts, theories, and hypothesis. Progress in Oceanography, 60, 223-243.
14. Daskalov G (2002) Overfishing drives a trophic cascade in the Black Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 225, 53-63.
15. Daskalov GM, Grishin AN, Rodionov S, Mihneva V (2007) Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104, 10518-10523.
16. de Young B, Harris R, Alheit J, Beaugrand G, Mantua N, Shannon L (2004) Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations. Progress in Oceanography, 60, 143-164.
17. Dickmann M, Möllmann C, Voss R (2007) Feeding ecology of Central Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) larvae in relation to zooplankton dynamics - implications for survival. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 342, 277-289.
18. Folke C (2006) Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, 253-267.
19. Folke C, Carpenter S, Elmqvist T, Gunderson L, Holling CS, Walker B (2002) Resilience and sustainable development: Building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations. Ambio, 31, 437-440.
20. Fonselius S, Valderrama J (2003) One hundred years of hydrographic measurements in the Baltic Sea. Journal of Sea Research, 49, 229-241.
21. Frank KT, Petrie BD, Choi J, Leggett BD (2005) Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science, 308, 1621-1623.
22. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography, 47, 103-145.
23. Harley CDG, Hughes AR, Hultgren KM et al. (2006) The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems. Ecology Letters, 9, 228-241.
24. Harvey CJ, Cox SP, Essington TE, Hansson S, Kitchell JF (2003) An ecosystem model of food web and fisheries interactions in the Baltic Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 60, 939-950.
25. Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman & Hall, London.
26. Hille S, Nausch G, Leipe T (2005) Sedimentary deposition and reflux of phosphorus (P) in the Eastern Gotland Basin and their coupling with P concentrations in the water column. Oceanologia, 47, 663-679.
27. Hinrichsen HH, Möllmann C, Voss R, Köster FW, Kornilovs G (2002) Bio-physical modelling of larval Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) survival and growth. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 59, 1958-1873.
28. Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269, 676-679.
29. ICES (2005) Guidance on the application of the ecosystem approach to management of human activities in the European marine environment. ICES Cooperative Research Report, no. 273, 22 pp.
30. ICES (2007) Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS). International Council for the Exploration of Sea, C.M. 2007/ ACFM:15.
31. Köster FW, Möllmann C (2000) Trophodynamic control by clupeid predators on recruitment success in Baltic cod? ICES Journal of Marine Sciences, 57, 310-323.
32. Köster FW, Möllmann C, Hinrichsen HH et al. (2005) Baltic cod recruitment -the impact of climate and species interaction. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62, 1408-1425.
33. Köster FW, Möllmann C, Neuenfeldt S et al. (2003) Fish stock development in the Central Baltic Sea (1976-2000) in relation to variability in the physical environment. ICES Marine Science Symposia, 219, 294-306.
34. Lees K, Pitois S, Scott C, Frid C, Mackinson S (2006) Characterizing regime shifts in the marine environment. Fish and Fisheries, 7, 104-127.
35. Lehmann A, Krauss W, Hinrichsen HH (2002) Effects of remote and local atmospheric forcing on circulation and upwelling in the Baltic Sea. Tellus, 54, 299-316.
36. Link JS, Brodziak JKT, Edwards SF et al. (2002) Marine ecosystem assessment in a fisheries management context. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science, 59, 1429-1440.
37. Lluch-Belda D, Crawford RJ, Kawasaki T, McCall AD, Parrish RH, Schwartzlose RA, Smith PE (1989) Worldwide fluctuations in sardine and anchovy stocks: The regime problem. South African Journal of Marine Science, 8, 195-205.
38. MacKenzie BR, Gislason H, Möllmann C, Köster FW (2007) Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries. Global Change Biology, 13, 1-20.
39. Matthäus W, Franck H (1992) Characteristics of major Baltic inflows - a statistical analysis. Continental Shelf Research, 12, 1375-1400.
40. Matthäus W, Schinke H (1999) The influence of river runoff on deep water conditions of the Baltic Sea. Hydrobiologia, 393, 1-10.
41. McLeod KL, Lubchenco J, Palumbi SR, Rosenberg AA (2005) Scientific consensus statement on marine ecosystem-based management. Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea, available online at: http://www.compassonline.org/pdf_files/EBM_Consensus_Statement_v12.pdf.
42. Möllmann C, Kornilovs G, Sidrevics L (2000) Long-term dynamics of main mesozooplankton species in the Central Baltic Sea. Journal of Plankton Research, 22, 2015-2038.
43. Möllmann C, Köster FW (2002) Population dynamics of calanoid copepods and the implications of their predation by clupeid fish in the Central Baltic Sea. Journal of Plankton Research, 24, 959-977.
44. Möllmann C, Köster FW, Kornilovs G, Sidrevics L (2003) Interannual variability in population dynamics of calanoid copepods in the Central Baltic Sea. ICES Marine Science Symposia, 219, 294-306.
45. Möllmann C, Müller-Karulis B, Kornilovs G, St John MA (2008) Effects of climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure -regime shifts, trophic cascade and feedback loops in a simple ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65, 302-310.
46. Myers RA, Baum JK, Shepherd TD et al. (2007) Cascading effects of the loss of apex predatory sharks from a coastal ocean. Science, 315, 1846-1850.
47. Myers RA, Worm B (2003) Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature, 423, 280-283.
48. Nausch G, Matthäus W, Feistel R (2003) Hydrographic and hydrochemical conditions in the Gotland Deep area between 1992 and 2003. Oceanologia, 45, 557-569.
49. Österblom H, Hansson S, Larsson U, Hjerne O, Wusff F, Elmgren R, Folke C (2007) Human-induced trophic cascades and ecological regime shifts in the Baltic Sea. Ecosystems.
50. Pörtner HO, Knust R (2007) Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance. Science, 315, 95-97.
51. Renz J, Hirche HJ (2006) Life-cycle of Pseudocalanus acuspes Giesbrecht (Copepoda, Calanoida) in the Central Baltic Sea: I. Seasonal and spatial distribution. Marine Biology, 148, 567-580.
52. Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS (2004) Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic. Science, 305, 1609-1612.
53. Rodionov SN (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L09204.
54. Rodionov SN (2006) The use of prewhitening in climate regime shift detection. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12707.
55. Rodionov SN, Overland JE (2005) Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 62, 328-332.
56. Roessig JM, Woodley CM, Cech JJ, Hansen LJ (2004) Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 14, 251-275.
57. Rudnick DL, Davis RE (2003) Red noise and regime shifts. Deep-Sea Research, 50, 691-699.
58. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413, 591-596.
59. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR (2003) Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: Linking theory to observation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 18, 648-656.
60. Schmidt JO (2006) Small and meso-scale distribution patterns of key copepod species in the Central Baltic Sea and their relevance for larval fish survival. PhD Thesis, University of Kiel, Germany, 89 pp.
61. Suding KN, Gross KL, Houseman GR (2004) Alternative states and positive feedbacks in restoration ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 19, 46-53.
62. Wasmund N, Nausch G, Matthäus W (1998) Phytoplankton spring blooms in the southern Baltic Sea - spatio-temporal development and long-term trends. Journal of Plankton Research, 20, 1099-1117.
63. Wasmund N, Uhlig S (2003) Phytoplankton trends in the Baltic Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 60, 177-186.
64. Weijerman M, Lindeboom H, Zuur AF (2005) Regime shifts in marine ecosystems of the North and Wadden Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 298, 21-39.
65. Wood SN (2007) Generalized Additive Models. An Introduction with R. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, FL, USA.