Anticipating critical transitions

Science

Volumn 338, Issue 6105, 2012, Pages 344-348

  Scheffer, Marten ^a,b   Carpenter, Stephen R ^c   Lenton, Timothy M ^d   Bascompte, Jordi ^e   Brock, William ^c   Dakos, Vasilis ^a,e   Van De Koppel, Johan ^f,g   Van De Leemput, Ingrid A ^a   Levin, Simon A ^h   Van Nes, Egbert H ^a   Pascual, Mercedes ^i,j   Vandermeer, John ⁱ  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b South American Institute for Resilience and Sustainability Studies   (Uruguay)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^e DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION BIOLOGY   (Spain)

^f ROYAL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR SEA RESEARCH   (Netherlands)

^g UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

^h PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^j SANTA FE INSTITUTE   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COLLAPSE; COMPLEXITY; CRITICAL ANALYSIS; ECOLOGICAL APPROACH; FINANCIAL MARKET; PREDICTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; THRESHOLD;

CLIMATE; ECOLOGY; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; HUMAN; NONHUMAN; POSITIVE FEEDBACK; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RESEARCH; REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SOCIETY; STOCHASTIC MODEL;

EID: 84867655665     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: 10959203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1225244     Document Type: Review

References (67)

1. A. D. Barnosky et al., Nature 486, 52 (2012).
2. C. Folke et al., Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 35, 557 (2004).
3. M. Scheffer, Critical Transitions in Nature and Society (Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton and Oxford, 2009).
4. C. Kuehn, Physica D 240, 1020 (2011).
5. Y. A. Kuznetsov, Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory (Springer, New York, 1995).
6. D. Angeli, J. E. Ferrell Jr., E. D. Sontag, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 1822 (2004).
7. S. A. Levin, Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons (Perseus Publishing, Cambridge, MA, 2000).
8. E. H. van Nes, M. Scheffer, Ecology 86, 1797 (2005).
9. J. A. Dunne, R. J. Williams, N. D. Martinez, Ecol. Lett. 5, 558 (2002).
10. J. Lundberg, F. Moberg, Ecosystems (N.Y.) 6, 87 (2003).
11. D. R. Bellwood, T. P. Hughes, C. Folke, M. Nyström, Nature 429, 827 (2004).
12. M. Pascual, J. A. Dunne, Ecological Networks: Linking Structure to Dynamics in Food Webs. Santa Fe Institute Studies on the Sciences of Complexity (Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 2006).
13. E. Thébault, C. Fontaine, Science 329, 853 (2010).
14. J. Bascompte, P. Jordano, C. J. Melián, J. M. Olesen, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 100, 9383 (2003).
15. S. B. Otto, B. C. Rall, U. Brose, Nature 450, 1226 (2007).
16. S. Allesina, M. Pascual, Ecol. Lett. 12, 652 (2009).
17. R. M. May, S. A. Levin, G. Sugihara, Nature 451, 893 (2008).
18. A. G. Haldane, R. M. May, Nature 469, 351 (2011).
19. W. N. Adger, H. Eakin, A. Winkels, Front. Ecol. Environ 7, 150 (2009).
20. M. Scheffer et al., Nature 461, 53 (2009).
21. E. H. van Nes, M. Scheffer, Am. Nat. 169, 738 (2007).
22. A. J. Veraart et al., Nature 481, 357 (2012).
23. V. Dakos et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 14308 (2008).
24. A. R. Ives, Ecol. Monogr. 65, 217 (1995).
25. S. R. Carpenter, W. A. Brock, Ecol. Lett. 9, 311 (2006).
26. T. Kleinen, H. Held, G. Petschel-Held, Ocean Dyn. 53, 53 (2003).
27. V. N. Livina, T. M. Lenton, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L03712 (2007).
28. V. N. Livina, F. Kwasniok, T. M. Lenton, Climate of the Past 6, 77 (2010).
29. M. Hirota, M. Holmgren, E. H. van Nes, M. Scheffer, Science 334, 232 (2011).
30. V. Dakos et al., PLoS ONE 7, e41010 (2012).
31. V. Dakos, E. H. van Nes, R. Donangelo, H. Fort, M. Scheffer, Theor. Ecol. 3, 163 (2010).
32. S. Kéfiet al., Nature 449, 213 (2007).
33. M. Pascual, F. Guichard, Trends Ecol. Evol. 20, 88 (2005).
34. R. V. Solé, S. C. Manrubia, B. Luque, J. Delgado, J. Bascompte, Complexity 1, 13 (1996).
35. M. Rietkerk, S. C. Dekker, P. C. de Ruiter, J. van de Koppel, Science 305, 1926 (2004).
36. C. S. Holling, Ecosystems (N.Y.) 4, 390 (2001).
37. R. Biggs, S. R. Carpenter, W. A. Brock, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 826 (2009).
38. R. M. May, Nature 269, 471 (1977).
39. J. Kramer, J. Ross, J. Chem. Phys. 83, 6234 (1985).
40. J. R. Tredicce et al., Am. J. Phys. 72, 799 (2004).
41. J. Lim, B. I. Epureanu, Phys. Rev. E Stat. Nonlin. Soft Matter Phys. 83, 016203 (2011).
42. P. Hines, E. Cotilla-Sanchez, S. Blumsack, in Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (2011).
43. O. Ramos, Tectonophysics 485, 321 (2010).
44. T. M. Lenton, V. N. Livina, V. Dakos, E. H. van Nes, M. Scheffer, IMA J. Appl. Math. 76, 27 (2011).
45. P. D. Ditlevsen, S. J. Johnsen, Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L19703 (2010).
46. V. Guttal, C. Jayaprakash, Ecol. Lett. 11, 450 (2008).
47. S. R. Carpenter et al., Science 332, 1079 (2011).
48. J. M. Drake, B. D. Griffen, Nature 467, 456 (2010).
49. C. Wissel, Oecologia 65, 101 (1984).
50. G. Beaugrand, M. Edwards, K. Brander, C. Luczak, F. Ibanez, Ecol. Lett. 11, 1157 (2008).
51. C. H. Hsieh et al., Nature 443, 859 (2006).
52. B. deYoung et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 23, 402 (2008).
53. B. T. Bestelmeyer et al., Ecosphere 2, art129 (2011).
54. J. E. Hewitt, S. F. Thrush, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 413, 267 (2010).
55. M. A. Litzow, J. D. Urban, B. J. Laurel, Ecol. Appl. 18, 1331 (2008).
56. L. Dai, D. Vorselen, K. S. Korolev, J. Gore, Science 336, 1175 (2012).
57. G. Matsumoto, T. Kunisawa, J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 44, 1047 (1978).
58. C. Meisel, C. Kuehn, PLoS ONE 7, e30371 (2012).
59. A. N. Gorban, E. V. Smirnova, T. A. Tyukina, Physica A 389, 3193 (2010).
60. P. E. McSharry, L. A. Smith, L. Tarassenko, Nat. Med. 9, 241 (2003).
61. J. A. S. Kelso, J. P. Scholz, G. Schöner, Phys. Lett. A 118, 279 (1986).
62. J. P. Scholz, J. A. S. Kelso, G. Schöner, Phys. Lett. A 123, 390 (1987).
63. Y. Neuman, O. Nave, E. Dolev, Complexity 16, 58 (2011).
64. S. Saavedra, J. Duch, B. Uzzi, PLoS ONE 6, e26705 (2011).
65. A. L. Mayer et al., in Exploratory Data Analysis Using Fisher Information, B. R. Frieden, R. A. Gatenby, Eds. (Springer London, London, 2007), pp. 217-244.
66. J. G. Brida, L. F. Punzo, Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 14, 159 (2003).
67. D. Sornette, R. Woodard, in Econophysics Approaches to Large-Scale Business Data and Financial Crisis, M. Takayasu, T. Watanabe, H. Takayasu, Eds. (Springer Japan, Tokyo, 2010), pp. 101-148.