Predicted areas of potential distributions of alpine wetlands under different scenarios in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 123, Issue PA, 2014, Pages 77-85

  Xue, Zhenshan ^a   Zhang, Zhongsheng ^a   Lu, Xianguo ^a   Zou, Yuanchun ^a   Lu, Yonglei ^b   Jiang, Ming ^a   Tong, Shouzheng ^a   Zhang, Kun ^c  

^a NORTHEAST INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AND AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGY   (China)

^b Institute of Tibetan Forestry Survey and Planning Forestry Department of Tibet   (China)

^c SOUTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Alpine wetlands; BIOMOD; Climate change; Habitat distribution models; Qinghai tibetan plateau

Indexed keywords

ALPINE WETLAND; BIOMOD; HABITAT DISTRIBUTION; POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS; QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTATION; ALPINE ENVIRONMENT; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE EFFECT; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT; HABITAT STRUCTURE; SIMULATION; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; WETLAND;

CHINA; QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU;

EID: 84909954167     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.10.012     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Allouche O., Tsoar A., Kadmon R. Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43:1223-1232.
2. Araujo M.B., Guisan A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1677-1688.
3. Araujo M.B., Pearson R.G., Thuiller W., Erhard M. Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2005, 11:1504-1513.
4. Bai L., Cirendunzhu, Pengcuociren, Dawa, Woodward A., Liu X.B., Baimaciwang, Dazhen, Sang S.W., Wan F.J., Zhou L., Xu J.F., Li X.L., Wu H.X., Yu B.R., Xiraoruodeng, Liu Q.Y. Rapid warming in Tibet, China: public perception, response and coping resources in urban Lhasa. Environ. Heal. 2013, 12.
5. Beniston M., Diaz H.F., Bradley R.S. Climatic change at high elevation sites: an overview. Clim. Chang. 1997, 36:233-251.
6. Beven K., Kirkby M. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. J. 1979, 24:43-69.
7. Bolch T., Kulkarni A., Kaab A., Huggel C., Paul F., Cogley J.G., Frey H., Kargel J.S., Fujita K., Scheel M., Bajracharya S., Stoffel M. The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science 2012, 336:310-314.
8. Cannone N., Sgorbati S., Guglielmin M. Unexpected impacts of climate change on alpine vegetation. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2007, 5:360-364.
9. Ding Y.H. Introduction to Climate, Ecology and Environment in Northwest China 2001, China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
10. Elith J., Leathwick J.R. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2009, 40:677-697.
11. Elith J., Graham C.H., Anderson R.P., Dudik M., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Hijmans R.J., Huettmann F., Leathwick J.R., Lehmann A., Li J., Lohmann L.G., Loiselle B.A., Manion G., Moritz C., Nakamura M., Nakazawa Y., Overton J.M., Peterson A.T., Phillips S.J., Richardson K., Scachetti-Pereira R., Schapire R.E., Soberon J., Williams S., Wisz M.S., Zimmermann N.E. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 2006, 29:129-151.
12. Ellis C.J., Rochefort L. Long-term sensitivity of a High Arctic wetland to Holocene climate change. J. Ecol. 2006, 94:441-454.
13. Erwin K.L. Wetlands and global climate change: the role of wetland restoration in a changing world. Wetl. Ecol. Manag. 2009, 17:71-84.
14. Essl F., Dullinger S., Moser D., Rabitsch W., Kleinbauer I. Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation. Biodivers. Conserv. 2012, 21:655-669.
15. Guardiola-Albert C., Jackson C.R. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater supplies to the Donana Wetland, Spain. Wetlands 2011, 31:907-920.
16. Guisan A., Thuiller W. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett. 2005, 8:993-1009.
17. Guisan A., Zimmermann N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 2000, 135:147-186.
18. Gujja B. WWF international's regional approach to conserving high-altitude wetlands and lakes in the Himalaya. Mt. Res. Dev. 2005, 25(1):76-79.
19. Hansen J., Ruedy R., Sato M., Lo K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 2010, 48.
20. Hengl T., Heuvelink G., Rossiter D.G. About regression-kriging: from equations to case studies. Comput. Geosci. 2007, 33:1301-1315.
21. Hirota M., Tang Y.H., Hu Q.W., Kato T., Hirata S., Mo W.H., Cao G.M., Mariko S. The potential importance of grazing to the fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in an alpine wetland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Atmos. Environ. 2005, 39:5255-5259.
22. Hulme P.E. Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat?. J. Appl. Ecol. 2005, 42:784-794.
23. Huo L.L., et al. Effect of Zoige alpine wetland degradation on the density and fractions of soil organic carbon. Ecol. Eng. 2013, 51:287-295.
24. Ihaka R., Gentleman R. R: a language for data analysis and graphics. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 1996, 5:299-314.
25. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
26. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Climate change: AR4 synthesis report 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
27. Jarvis A., Reuter H., Nelson A., Guevara E. Hole-Filled Seamless SRTM data V4 2008, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).
28. Jiménez-Valverde A., Lobo J.M. Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence. Acta Oecol. 2007, 31(3):361-369.
29. Jones C.C., Acker S.A., Halpern C.B. Combining local-and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species. Ecol. Appl. 2010, 20:311-326.
30. Kaab A., Berthier E., Nuth C., Gardelle J., Arnaud Y. Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas. Nature 2012, 488:495-498.
31. Karl T.R., Melillo J.M., Peterson T.C. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2009, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
32. Kearney M., Porter W.P. Mapping the fundamental niche: physiology, climate, and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard. Ecology 2004, 85:3119-3131.
33. Kim S.J., Flato G.M., Boer G.J. A coupled climate model simulation of the last glacial maximum, Part 2: approach to equilibrium. Clim. Dyn. 2003, 20:635-661.
34. Kira T. Forest ecosystems of east and southeast-Asia in a global perspective. Ecol. Res. 1991, 6:185-200.
35. Klein J.A., Harte J., Zhao X.Q. Experimental warming, not grazing, decreases rangeland quality on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecol. Appl. 2007, 17:541-557.
36. Kurtzman D., Kadmon R. Mapping of temperature variables in Israel: a comparison of different interpolation methods. Clim. Res. 1999, 13:33-43.
37. Kusler J. Common Questions: Wetland, Climate Change, and Carbon Sequestering 2007, Association of State Wetland Managers.
38. Liu H.J., Bu R.C., Liu J.T., Leng W.F., Hu Y.M., Yang L.B., Liu H.T. Predicting the wetland distributions under climate warming in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeastern China. Ecol. Res. 2011, 26:605-613.
39. Liu Z., Wang M., Ma X. Estimation of storage and density of organic carbon in peatlands of China. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 2012, 22:637-646.
40. Lobo J.M., Jimenez-Valverde A., Real R. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2008, 17:145-151.
41. Merot P., Squividant H., Aurousseau P., Hefting M., Burt T., Maitre V., Kruk M., Butturini A., Thenail C., Viaud V. Testing a climato-topographic index for predicting wetlands distribution along an European climate gradient. Ecol. Model. 2003, 163:51-71.
42. Metz M., Mitasova H., Harmon R. Accurate stream extraction from large, radar-based elevation models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2010, 7:3213-3235.
43. Nakicenovic N., Alcamo J., Davis G., de Vries B., Fenhann J., Gaffin S., Gregory K., Grubler A., Jung T.Y., Kram T. Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (US), Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (US).
44. Nie Y., Li A.N. Assessment of alpine wetland dynamics from 1976-2006 in the vicinity of Mount Everest. Wetlands 2011, 31(5):875-884.
45. Niu Z., et al. Mapping wetland changes in China between 1978 and 2008. Chin. Sci. Bull. 2012, 57(22):2813-2823.
46. Normand S., Randin C., Ohlemuller R., Bay C., Hoye T.T., Kjaer E.D., Korner C., Lischke H., Maiorano L., Paulsen J., Pearman P.B., Psomas A., Treier U.A., Zimmermann N.E., Svenning J.C. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. B 2013, 368.
47. Phillips S.J., Dudik M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 2008, 31:161-175.
48. Pitchford J.L., Wu C.J., Lin L.S., Petty J.T., Thomas R., Veselka W.E., Welsch D., Zegre N., Anderson J.T. Climate change effects on hydrology and ecology of wetlands in the mid-Atlantic Highlands. Wetlands 2012, 32:21-33.
49. Poff N., Brinson M.M., Day J.W. Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Climate Change 2002, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA 44.
50. Population Census Office under the State Council, Department of Population Employment Statistics, National Bureau of Statistic of China Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People's Republic of China 2012, National Statistical Publishing House, Beijing.
51. Pu J., Yao T., Wang N., Su Z., Shen Y. Fluctuations of the glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past century. J. Glaciol. Geocryol. 2004, 26:517-522.
52. Qiu P.F., Wu N., Luo P., Wang Z.Y., Li M.H. Analysis of dynamics and driving factors of wetland landscape in Zoige, Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. J. Mt. Sci. 2009, 6:42-55.
53. Ramirez J., Jarvis A. Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: the Delta Method. International Center for Tropical Agriculture 2010, CIAT, Cali, Colombia.
54. Rebetez M., Dobbertin M. Climate change may already threaten Scots pine stands in the Swiss Alps. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2004, 79:1-9.
55. Rodhe A., Seibert J. Wetland occurrence in relation to topography: a test of topographic indices as moisture indicators. Agric. For. Meteorol. 1999, 98-9:325-340.
56. Sorensen R., Zinko U., Seibert J. On the calculation of the topographic wetness index: evaluation of different methods based on field observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2006, 10:101-112.
57. Steiniger S., Bocher E. An overview on current free and open source desktop GIS developments. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 2009, 23:1345-1370.
58. Swets J.A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 1988, 240:1285-1293.
59. Theurillat J.P., Guisan A. Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Clim. Chang. 2001, 50:77-109.
60. Thuiller W. Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2004, 10:2020-2027.
61. Thuiller W., Lavorel S., Sykes M.T., Araújo M.B. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. Divers. Distrib. 2006, 12(1):49-60.
62. Thuiller W., Lafourcade B., Engler R., Araujo M.B. BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 2009, 32:369-373.
63. Thuiller W., Georges D., Engler R. biomod2: ensemble platform for species distribution modeling. R package version 2, r560 2013.
64. Tibet Bureau of Statistics Tibet Statistical Yearbook of 1980 & 2010 1980 &, 2010, China Statistical Press, Beijing.
65. Wang G.X., Qian J., Cheng G.D., Lai Y.M. Soil organic carbon pool of grassland soils on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its global implication. Sci. Total Environ. 2002, 291:207-217.
66. Wei Y.Q., Fang Y.P. Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone elevation model. PLoS ONE 2013, 8.
67. WGMS, and National Snow and Ice Data Center (comps.)., 1999. updated 2012. World Glacier Inventory, Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
68. Xiang S., Guo R., Wu N., Sun S. Current status and future prospects of Zoige Marsh in eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Ecol. Eng. 2009, 35(4):553-562.
69. Xu H., Liu B., Lan J.H., Sheng E.G., Che S., Xu S. Holocene peatland development along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Quat. Res. 2013, 80:47-54.
70. Zhang Y.L., Zhan W., Bai W.Q., Li S.C., Zheng D. An analysis of statistical data about Tibetan Plateau in China - a case study on population. Prog. Geogr. 2005, 24:11-20.
71. Zhang Y., Wang G.X., Wang Y.B. Changes in alpine wetland ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau from 1967 to 2004. Environ. Monit. Assess. 2011, 180(1-4):189-199.
72. Zhao L., Ping C.L., Yang D., Cheng G., Ding Y., Liu S. Changes of climate and seasonally frozen ground over the past 30years in Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, China. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2004, 43:19-31.
73. Zhao Y., Yu Z.C., Zhao W.W. Holocene vegetation and climate histories in the eastern Tibetan Plateau: controls by insolation-driven temperature or monsoon-derived precipitation changes?. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2011, 30:1173-1184.
74. Zhao Y., Yu Z.C., Tang Y., Li H., Yang B., Li F.R., Zhao W.W., Sun J.H., Chen J.H., Li Q., Zhou A.F. Peatland initiation and carbon accumulation in China over the last 50,000years. Earth Sci. Rev. 2014, 128:139-146.
75. Zheng D., Zhang Q., Wu W.S. Mountain geoecology and sustainable development of the Tibetan Plateau 2000, Springer.
76. Zimmermann N.E., Edwards T.C., Graham C.H., Pearman P.B., Svenning J.C. New trends in species distribution modelling. Ecography 2010, 33:985-989.