Are assessments responding to a dynamic environment? Evidence from four emerging techno-scientific domains

Science and Public Policy

Volumn 41, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 317-331

  van Doren, Davy ^a   Forsberg, Ellen Marie ^b   Lindner, Ralf ^a  

^a FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SYSTEMS AND INNOVATION RESEARCH ISI   (Germany)

^b OSLO METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY   (Norway)

Author keywords

Assessment; Emerging techno scientific domain; Impact; Policy advice; Trends

Indexed keywords

ASSESSMENT METHOD; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; POLICY ANALYSIS; SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY; TREND ANALYSIS;

EID: 84902528573     PISSN: 03023427     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/scipol/scu032     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Anselin, L., Sridharan, S. and Gholston, S. (2006) 'Using exploratory spatial data analysis to leverage social indicator databases: The discovery of interesting patterns', Social Indicators Research, 82: 287-309.
2. Arnold, P. and Smith, J. (2003) 'Adding connectivity and losing context with ICT: Contrasting learning situations from a community of practice perspective'. In: Huysman, M., Wenger, E. and Wulf, V. (eds) Communities and Technologies, pp. 465-84. Deventer, the Netherlands: Kluwer.
3. Bagozzi, R. P. and Lee, K.-H. (1999) 'Consumer resistance to, and acceptance of, innovations', Advances in Consumer Research, 26: 218-25.
4. Bailis, R. and Baka, J. (2011) 'Constructing sustainable biofuels: Governance of the emerging biofuel economy', Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 101: 827-38.
5. Barker, D. and Smith, J. H. D. (1995) 'Technology foresight using roadmaps', Long Range Planning, 28: 495-506.
6. Barr, S. (2003) 'Strategies for sustainability: Citizens and responsible environmental behaviour', Area, 35: 227-40.
7. Basha, S. A., Gopal, K. R. and Jebaraj, S. (2009) 'A review on biodiesel production, combustion, emissions and performance', Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13: 1628-34.
8. Bennett, C. J. (1991) 'Computers, personal data, and theories of technology: Comparative approaches to privacy protection in the 1990s', Science, Technology and Human Values, 16: 51-69.
9. Binder, C. R., Feola, G. and Steinberger, J. K. (2010) 'Considering the normative, systemic and procedural dimensions in indicator-based sustainability assessments in agriculture', Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 30: 71-81.
10. Boden, M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K. and Könnölä, T. (2010) Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges, No. JRC55981. Seville, Spain: European Commission Joint Research Centre and Institute for Prospective Technological Studies accessed 6 May 2014.
11. Bond, A. and Pope, J. (2012) 'Editorial: The state of the art of impact assessment in 2012', Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 30: 1-4.
12. Bramstedt, N. and O'Hare, W. (2002) Examining Inter-relationships Among State-level Measures of Child Well-being. Baltimore, MD: Annie E Casey Foundation.
13. Bright, J. R. (1968) Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government: Methods and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
14. Bureau, J.-C., Guyomard, H., Jacquet, F. and Tréguer, D. (2010) 'European biofuel policy: How far will public support go?'. In: Khanna, M., Scheffran, J. and Zilberman, D. (eds) Handbook of Bioenergy Economics and Policy, pp. 401-23. New York: Springer.
15. Buse, K. and Walt, G. (2000) 'Global public-private partnerships. Part I: A new development in health?', Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 78/99: 549-61.
16. Bütschi, D., Carius, R., Decker, M. and Gram, S. (2004) 'The practice of TA. Science, interaction, and communication'. In: Decker, M. and Ladikas, M. (eds) Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy: Technology Assessment: Methods and Impacts, pp. 13-55. New York: Springer.
17. Cetron, M. J. and Monahan, T. I. (1968) An Evaluation and Appraisal of Various Approaches to Technological Forecasting, Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government: Methods and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
18. Chen, Q., Anders, S. and An, H. (2013) 'Measuring consumer resistance to a new food technology: A choice experiment in meat packaging', Food Quality and Preference, 28: 419-28.
19. Cobb, C. W. and Rixford, C. (1998) Lessons Learned from the History of Social Indicators. San Francisco, CA: Redefining Progress.
20. Conley, E. C., Owens, D. R., Luzio, S. L., Subramanian, M. et al. (2008) 'Simultaneous trend analysis for evaluating outcomes in patient-centred health monitoring services', Health Care Management Science, 11: 152-66.
21. Cornish, E. (2004) Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.
22. Dabrock, P. (2009) 'Playing God? Synthetic biology as a theological and ethical challenge', Systems and Synthetic Biology, 3: 47-54.
23. Decker, M. and Ladikas, M. (2004) Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy: Technology Assessment: Methods and Impacts. Berlin: Springer.
24. Dincer, I. (2000) 'Renewable energy and sustainable development: A crucial review', Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 4: 157-75.
25. Ernst & Young. (2011) Tracking global trends. How six key developments are shaping the business world, No. EYG No. DK0061. London: Ernst & Young.
26. Esterby, S. R. (1993) 'Trend analysis methods for environmental data', Environmetrics, 4: 459-81.
27. European Commission. (2012) Global Europe 2050, Socioeconomic Sciences and Humanities, EUR 25252. Brussels: European Commision, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.
28. European Environment Agency. (2011) The European Environment, State and Outlook 2010: Assessment of Global Megatrends. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
29. De Vasconcelos, Á. (ed.) (2012) Global trends 2030 Citizens in an interconnected and Polycentric World, ESPAS Report. Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies accessed 6 May 2014.
30. Fleischer, T., Decker, M. and Fiedeler, U. (2005) 'Assessing emerging technologies: Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72: 1112-21.
31. Forrester, J. W. (1961) Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
32. Garfinkel, M. S., Endy, D., Epstein, G. L. and Friedman, R. M. (2007) 'Synthetic genomics: Options for governance', Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 5: 359-62.
33. Gorraiz, J. and Schloegl, C. (2008) 'A bibliometric analysis of pharmacology and pharmacy journals: Scopus versus Web of Science', Journal of Information Science, 34: 715-25.
34. Gupta, B. M. and Bhattacharya, S. (2004) 'A bibliometric approach towards mapping the dynamics of science and technology', DESIDOC Journal of Library and Information Technology, 24: 3-8.
35. Guston, D. H. and Sarewitz, D. (2002) 'Real-time technology assessment', Technology in Society, 24: 93-109.
36. Hahn, R. (2011) 'Integrating corporate responsibility and sustainable development: A normative-conceptual approach to holistic management thinking', Journal of Global Responsibility, 2: 8-22.
37. Havlík, P., Schneider, U. A., Schmid, E., Boettcher, H. et al. (2010) 'Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets', Energy Policy, 39: 5690-702.
38. Heiskanen, E., Hyvönen, K., Niva, M., Pantzar, M. et al. (2007) 'User involvement in radical innovation: Are consumers conservative?', European Journal of Innovation Management, 10: 489-509.
39. Held, D., McGrew, A., Goldblatt, D. and Perraton, J. (1999) Global Transformations: Politics, Economics and Culture. Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press.
40. Henderson, H. (1995) Paradigms in Progress. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler.
41. Hess, A., Iyer, H. and Malm, W. (2001) 'Linear trend analysis: A comparison of methods', Atmospheric Environment, 35: 5211-22.
42. Hodge, G. A. and Greve, C. (2007) 'Public-private partnerships: An international performance review', Public Administration Review, 67: 545-58.
43. International Council for Science. (2011) ICSU Foresight Analysis Report 1: International science in 2031-exploratory scenarios. Paris: International Council for Science.
44. Knapp, S., Arruda, P., Blagg, J., Burley, S. et al. (2013) 'A public-private partnership to unlock the untargeted kinome', Nature Chemical Biology, 9: 3-6.
45. Krabbenborg, L. (2012) 'The potential of national public engagement exercises: Evaluating the case of the recent Dutch societal dialogue on nanotechnology', International Journal of Emerging Technologies and Society, 10: 27-44.
46. Lee, S., Kim, M. and Park, Y. (2009) 'ICT co-evolution and Korean ICT strategy: An analysis based on patent data', Telecommunications Policy, 33: 253-71.
47. Lyneis, J. M. (1982) Corporate Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
48. Martino, J. P. (1993) Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
49. Mclaren, P., Hill, S. and Bowles, D. (2007) 'Deriving transport pathways in a sediment trend analysis (STA)', Sedimentary Geology, 202: 489-98.
50. Meadows, D., Meadows, D. and Randers, J. (1992) 'Beyond the limits to growth', Dancing Toward the Future, 32: 1-6.
51. Mintzberg, H. (1979) The Structuring of Organizations: A Synthesis of the Research. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
52. Morgan, R. K. (2012) 'Environmental impact assessment: The state of the art', Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 30: 5-14.
53. No, H. J. and Park, Y. (2010) 'Trajectory patterns of technology fusion: Trend analysis and taxonomical grouping in nanobiotechnology', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77: 63-75.
54. O'Sullivan, A. and Sheffrin, S. M. (2001) Economics: Principles in Action. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
55. OECD. (1993) Technology Fusion: A Path to Innovation-The Case of Optoelectronics. Paris: OECD.
56. OECD. (2001) Governance in the 21st century. Paris: OECD.
57. Parson, E. A. (1995) 'Integrated assessment and environmental policy making: In pursuit of usefulness', Energy Policy, 23: 463-75.
58. Patchin, J. W. and Hinduja, S. (2010) 'Trends in online social networking: Adolescent use of MySpace over time', New Media and Society, 12: 197-216.
59. Petermann, T. (1999) 'Konstituierung und Ausdifferenzierung eines Leitbildes'. In: Bröchler, S., Simonis, G. and Sundermann, K. (eds) Handbuch Technikfolgenabschätzung, pp. 17-49. Berlin: Edition Sigma.
60. Renn, O., Jager, A., Deuschle, J. and Weimer-Jehle, W. (2009) 'A normative-functional concept of sustainability and its indicators', International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9: 291-317.
61. Ritzer, G. (2011) Globalization: The Essentials. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.
62. Saeed, K. (2007) 'Trend forecasting as derivative control', Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Sterman, J., Oliva, R., Langer, R. S., Rowe, J. I. and Yanni, J. M. (eds), pp. 144. Albany, NY: System Dynamics Society.
63. Schepers, J. and Wetzels, M. (2007) 'A meta-analysis of the technology acceptance model: Investigating subjective norm and moderation effects', Information and Management, 44: 90-103.
64. Schot, J. and Rip, A. (1997) 'The past and future of constructive technology assessment', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 54: 251-68.
65. Slaughter, A. (1993) 'Looking for the real "megatrends" ', Futures, 25: 827-49.
66. Szapiro, T. (2004) 'Culturally-based framing factors that influence technology assessment'. In: Decker, M. and Ladikas, M. (eds) Bridges between Science, Society and Policy: Technology Assessment: Methods and Impacts, pp. 163-80. Berlin: Springer.
67. Takahashi, Y., Rabins, M. and Auslander, D. (1972) Control and Dynamic Systems. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
68. Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group. (2004) 'Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71: 287-303.
69. Thompson, J. D. (1967) Organizations in Action: Social Science Bases of Administrative Theory. New York: McGraw-Hill.
70. UN. (1987) Our Common Future. New York: UN World Commission on Environment and Development.
71. UN. (1997) Agenda for Development, General Assembly No. A/RES/51/240. New York: UN.
72. Urquhart, N. S., Paulsen, S. G. and Larsen, D. P. (1998) 'Monitoring for policy-relevant regional trends over time', Ecological Applications, 8: 246-57.
73. Vanclay, F. (2003) 'International principles for social impact assessment', Impact Assesment and Project Appraisal, 21: 5-11.
74. Van der Horst, D. and Vermeylen, S. (2011) 'Spatial scale and social impacts of biofuel production', Biomass and Bioenergy, 35: 2435-43.
75. Vig, N. J. and Paschen, H. (2000) Parliaments and Technology: The Development of Technology Assessment in Europe. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.
76. Von Schomberg, R. (2013) 'A vision of responsible innovation'. In: Owen, R., Heintz, M. and Bessant, J. (eds) Responsible Innovation: Managing the Responsible Emergence of Science and Innovation in Society, pp. 51-74. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
77. Weng, Y. (2007) 'Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to urbanization', Landscape and Urban Planning, 81: 341-53.
78. Weston, J. (2010) 'EIA theories: All Chinese whispers and no critical theory', Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, 12: 357-74.
79. Wu, F.-S., Hsu, C.-C., Lee, P.-C. and Su, H.-N. (2011) 'A systematic approach for integrated trend analysis: The case of etching', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78: 386-407.
80. Yoon, B. and Park, Y. (2007) 'Development of new technology forecasting algorithm: Hybrid approach for morphology analysis and conjoint analysis of patent information', IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 54: 588-99.