Multimodel ensemble for freeway traffic state estimations

IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems

Volumn 15, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 1323-1336

  Li, Li ^a   Chen, Xiqun ^b   Zhang, Lei ^b  

^a TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Lasso; multimodel ensemble; ridge regression; traffic state estimation; uncertainty

Indexed keywords

HIGHWAY TRAFFIC CONTROL; MODEL STRUCTURES; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

LASSO; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; RIDGE REGRESSION; TRAFFIC STATE ESTIMATION; UNCERTAINTY;

STATE ESTIMATION;

EID: 84902078579     PISSN: 15249050     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TITS.2014.2299542     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Y. Wang, M. Papageorgiou, and A. Messmer, "A real-time freeway network traffic surveillance tool," IEEE Trans. Control Syst. Technol., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 18-32, Jan. 2006. (Pubitemid 43256802)
2. T.-Q. Tang, S. C. Wong, H.-J. Huang, and P. Zhang, "Macroscopic modeling of lane-changing for two-lane traffic flow," J. Adv. Transp., vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 245-273, Jul. 2009.
3. T.-Q. Tang, H.-J. Huang, S.-G. Zhao, and H.-Y. Shang, "A new dynamic model for heterogeneous traffic flow," Phys. Lett. A, vol. 373, no. 29, pp. 2461-2466, Jun. 2009.
4. D. Ngoduy and A. Sumalee, "Adaptive estimation of noise covariance matrices in unscented Kalman filter for multiclass traffic flow model," Transp. Res. Rec., no. 2188, pp. 119-130, 2010.
5. C. P. I. J. van Hinsbergen, T. Schreiter, F. S. Zuurbier, J. W. C. van Lint, and H. J. van Zuylen, "Localized extended Kalman filter for scalable realtime traffic state estimation," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 385-394, Mar. 2012.
6. Y. Yuan, J. W. C. van Lint, R. E. Wilson, F. van Wageningen-Kessels, and S. P. Hoogendoorn, "Real-time Lagrangian traffic state estimator for freeways," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 59-70, Mar. 2012.
7. L. Mihaylova, R. Boel, and A. Hegyi, "Freeway traffic estimation within particle filtering framework," Automatica, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 290-300, Feb. 2007. (Pubitemid 46037591)
8. A. Gning, L. Mihaylova, and R. K. Boel, "Intervalmacroscopicmodels for traffic networks," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 523-536, Jun. 2011.
9. L. Muñoz, X. Sun, R. Horowitz, and L. Alvarez, "Traffic density estimation with the cell transmission model," in Proc. Amer. Control Conf., Denver, CO, USA, Jun. 2003, pp. 3750-3755.
10. R. Horowitz, L. Muñoz, and X. Sun, "Modeling, estimation, and control of freeway traffic," in Advances in Control, Communication Networks, and Transportation Systems in Honor of Pravin Varaiya. New York, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 2005, ch. 17, pp. 329-358.
11. L. Muñoz, X. Sun, R. Horowitz, and L. Alvarez, "Piecewise- linearized cell transmission model and parameter calibration methodology," Transp. Res. Rec., no. 1965, pp. 183-191, 2006. (Pubitemid 46279050)
12. G. Gomes and R. Horowitz, "Optimal freeway ramp metering using the asymmetric cell transmission model," Transp. Res. C, Emerging Technol., vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 244-262, Aug. 2006. (Pubitemid 44490299)
13. R. Boel and L. Mihaylova, "A compositional stochastic model for real time freeway traffic simulation," Transp. Res. B, Methodol., vol. 40, no. 4, pp. 319-334, May 2006. (Pubitemid 43033366)
14. K. Tuerprasert and C. Aswakul, "Multiclass cell transmission model for heterogeneous mobility in general topology of road network," J. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 68-82, May 2010.
15. A. A. Kurzhanskiy and P. Varaiya, "Guaranteed prediction and estimation of the state of a road network," Transp. Res. C, Emerging Technol., vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 163-180, Apr. 2012.
16. M. Papageorgiou, J.-M. Blosseville, and H. Haj-Salem, "Modeling and real-time control of traffic flow on the southern part of Boulevard Périphérique in Paris-Part I: Modeling," Transp. Res. A, Gen., vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 345-359, Sep. 1990.
17. A. Kotsialos, M. Papageorgiou, C. Diakaki, Y. Pavlis, and F. Middelham, "Traffic flow modeling of large-scale motorway networks using the macroscopic modeling tool METANET," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 282-292, Dec. 2002. (Pubitemid 135706868)
18. Y. Wang and M. Papageorgiou, "Real-time freeway traffic state estimation based on extended Kalman filter: A general approach," Transp. Res. B, Methodol., vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 141-167, Feb. 2005. (Pubitemid 40032216)
19. Y. Wang, M. Papageorgiou, and A. Messmer, "Real-time freeway traffic state estimation based on extended Kalman filter: A case study," Transp. Sci., vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 167-181, May 2007.
20. Y. Wang, M. Papageorgiou, A. Messmer, P. Coppola, A. Tzimitsi, and A. Nuzzolo, "An adaptive freeway traffic state estimator," Automatica, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 10-24, Jan. 2009.
21. A. Stathopoulos and M. G. Karlaftis, "A multivariate state space approach for urban traffic flow modeling and prediction," Transp. Res. C, Emerging Technol., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 121-135, Apr. 2003. (Pubitemid 36594926)
22. X. Min, J. Hu, Q. Chen, T. Zhang, and Y. Zhang, "Short-term traffic flow forecasting of urban network based on dynamic STARIMA model," in Proc. IEEE Conf. Intell. Transp. Syst., 2009, pp. 1-6.
23. W. Min and L. Wynter, "Real-time road traffic prediction with spatiotemporal correlations," Transp. Res. C, Emerging Technol., vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 606-616, Aug. 2011.
24. E. I. Vlahogianni, M. G. Karlaftis, and J. C. Golias, "Temporal evolution of short-term urban traffic flow: A nonlinear dynamics approach," Comput.-Aided Civil Infrastruct. Eng., vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 536-548, Oct. 2008.
25. C. Chen, Y. Wang, L. Li, J. Hu, and Z. Zhang, "The retrieval of intra-day trend and its influence on traffic prediction," Transp. Res. C, Emerging Technol., vol. 22, pp. 103-118, Jun. 2012.
26. A. Gupta, "Observability of origin-destination matrices for dynamic traffic assignment," M.S. thesis, Dept. Civil Environ. Eng., MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA, 2005.
27. E. D. Sontag, Mathematical Control Theory: Deterministic Finite Dimensional Systems, 2nd ed. New York, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 1998.
28. S. E. Jabari and H. X. Liu, "A stochastic model of traffic flow: Theoretical foundations," Transp. Res. B, Methodol., vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 156-174, Jan. 2012.
29. X. Chen, Z. Li, L. Li, and Q. Shi, "Characterizing scattering features in flow-density plots using a stochastic platoon model," Transportmetr. A, Transp. Sci., DOI:10.1080/23249935.2013.822941, to be published.
30. K. Ashok, "Estimation and prediction of time-dependent origin destination flows,"M.S. thesis, Dept. Civil Environ. Eng., MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA, 1996.
31. K. Ashok and M. Ben-Akiva, "Alternative approaches for real-time estimation and prediction of time-dependent origin-destination flows," Transp. Sci., vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 21-36, Feb. 2000. (Pubitemid 30587607)
32. C. Antoniou, M. Ben-Akiva, and H. N. Koutsopoulos, "Online calibration of traffic prediction models," Transp. Res. Rec., no. 1934, pp. 235-245, 2005.
33. C. Antoniou and H. N. Koutsopoulos, "Estimation of traffic dynamics models with machine-learning methods," Transp. Res. Rec., no. 1965, pp. 103-111, 2006. (Pubitemid 46279042)
34. C. Antoniou, M. Ben-Akiva, and H. N. Koutsopoulos, "Nonlinear Kalman filtering algorithms for on-line calibration of dynamic traffic assignment models," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 661-670, Dec. 2007. (Pubitemid 350231643)
35. L. K. Hansen and P. Salamon, "Neural network ensembles," IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., vol. 12, no. 10, pp. 993-1001, Oct. 1990.
36. Z.-H. Zhou, Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms. Boca Raton, FL, USA: CRC Press, 2012.
37. M. C. Thomson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, S. J. Mason, R. Hagedorn, S. J. Connor1, T. Phindela, A. P. Morse, and T. N. Palmer, "Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles," Nature, vol. 439, no. 7076, pp. 576-579, Feb. 2006. (Pubitemid 43185379)
38. R. E. Chandler, "Exploiting strength, discounting weakness: Combining information from multiple climate simulators," Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London A, Math. Phys. Sci., vol. 371, no. 1991, p. 20120388, May 2013.
39. F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Pavan, and D. B. Stephenson, "The skill of multimodel seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic oscillation," Clim. Dyn., vol. 21, no. 5/6, pp. 501-514, Nov. 2003. (Pubitemid 37515228)
40. Q. J. Kong, Z. Li, Y. Chen, and Y. Liu, "An approach to urban traffic state estimation by fusing multisource information," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 499-511, Sep. 2009.
41. J. C. Herrera and A. M. Bayen, "Incorporation of Lagrangian measurements in freeway traffic state estimation," Transp. Res. B, Methodol., vol. 44, no. 4, pp. 460-481, May 2010.
42. C. Daganzo, "The cell transmission model: A dynamic representation of highway traffic consistent with the hydrodynamic theory," Transp. Res. B, Methodol., vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 269-287, Aug. 1994.
43. J. P. Lebacque, "The Godunov Scheme and what it means for first order traffic flow models," in Transportation and Traffic Theory. NewYork, NY, USA: Pergamon, 1996, pp. 647-677.
44. G. S. Fishman, Monte Carlo: Concepts, Algorithms, and Applications. New York, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 1995.
45. C. P. Robert and G. Casella, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, 2nd ed. New York, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 2004.
46. J. S. Liu, Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing. NewYork, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 2008.
47. C. M. Bishop and N. M. Nasrabadi, Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. New York, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 2006.
48. J. Aldrich, "Doing least squares: Perspectives from Gauss and Yule," Int. Stat. Rev., vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 61-81, Apr. 1998. (Pubitemid 128359890)
49. S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe, Convex Optimization. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2004.
50. A. N. Tychonoff, "Îá óñòî é/èâîñòè îádà òíûõ çàäà/ [On the stability of inverse problems]," Doklady Akad. Nauk SSSR, vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 195-198, 1943.
51. A. N. Tikhonov and V. Y. Arsenin, Solution of Ill-Posed Problems. Washington, DC, USA: Winston & Sons, 1977.
52. A. E. Hoerl, "Application of ridge analysis to regression problems," Chem. Eng. Progr., vol. 58, no. 3, pp. 54-59, Dec. 1962.
53. A. E. Hoerl and R. W. Kennard, "Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems," Technometrics, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 55-67, Feb. 1970.
54. P. J. Bickel, B. Li, A. B. Tsybakov, S. A. van de Geer, B. Yu, T. Valdes, C. Rivero, J. Fan, and A. van der Vaart, "Regularization in statistics," Test, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 271-344, 2006.
55. R. Tibshirani, "Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso," J. R. Stat. Soc., B, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 267-288, 1996.
56. B. Efron, T. Hastie, I. Johnstone, and R. Tibshirani, "Least angle regression," Ann. Stat., vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 407-499, 2004. (Pubitemid 41250302)
57. T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and J. Friedman, The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, 2nd ed. New York, NY, USA: Springer-Verlag, 2009.
58. Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). [Online]. Available: http://pems.dot.ca.gov/
59. Z. Jia, C. Chen, B. Coifman, and P. Varaiya, "The PeMS algorithms for accurate, real-time estimates of g-factors and speeds from single-loop detectors," in Proc. IEEE Conf. Intell. Transp. Syst., 2011, pp. 536-541.
60. X. Chen, Q. Shi, and L. Li, "Location specific cell transmission model for freeway traffic," Tsinghua Sci. Technol., vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 475-480, Aug. 2010.
61. L. Li, X. Chen, Z. Li, and L. Zhang, "Freeway travel-time estimation based on temporal-spatial queueing model," IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 1536-1541, Sep. 2013.
62. C. Antoniou, H. N. Koutsopoulos, and G. Yannis, "Dynamic data-driven local traffic state estimation and prediction," Transp. Res. C, Emerging Technol., vol. 34, no. 9, pp. 89-107, Sep. 2013.
63. A. A. Mullur and A. Messac, "Metamodeling using extended radial basis functions: A comparative approach," Eng. Comput., vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 203-217, May 2006.