Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts using WRF hourly QPF and topmodel for a middle watershed

Advances in Meteorology

Volumn 2014, Issue , 2014, Pages

  Calvetti, Leonardo ^a   Pereira Filho, Augusto José ^b  

^a Institute of Meteorology of Paraná SIMEPAR   (Brazil)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SÃO PAULO   (Brazil)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84901788124     PISSN: 16879309     EISSN: 16879317     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1155/2014/484120     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Lewis J. M., Roots of ensemble forecasting. Monthly Weather Review 2005 133 7 1865 1885 2-s2.0-24144454647 10.1175/MWR2949.1 (Pubitemid 41235944)
2. Kalnay E., Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability 2002 Cambridge Press
3. Buizza R., Palmer T., Hagedorn R., The ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Predictability of Weather and Climate 2006 Cambridge University Press
4. Palmer T. N., Gelaro R., Barkmeijer J., Buizza R., Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 1998 55 4 633 653 2-s2.0-0031862088
5. Stensrud D. J., Bao J.-W., Warner T. T., Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Monthly Weather Review 2000 128 7 2077 2107 2-s2.0-0033825565
6. Du J., Dimego G., Toth Z., Jovic D., Zhou B., Zhu J., Chuang H., Wang J., Juang H., Recent upgrade of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system. Proceedings of the 19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction and 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting 2009 Omaha, Nebraska American Meteorological Society
7. Wei M., Toth Z., Wobus R., Zhu Y., Initial perturbations based on the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 2008 60 1 62 79 2-s2.0-37549070304 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00273.x
8. Abaza M., Anctil F., Fortin V., Turcotte R., A comparison of the Canadian global and regional meteorological ensemble prediction systems for short-term hydrological forecasting. Monthly Weather Review 2013 141 3462 3476 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00206.1
9. Durai V. R., Bhardwaj R., Improving precipitation forecasts skill over India using a multi-model ensemble technique. Geofisika 2013 30 2 119 141
10. Mitra A. K., Iyengar G. R., Durai V. R., Sanjay J., Krishnamurti T. N., Mishra A., Sikka D. R., Experimental real-time Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall during monsoon 2008: large-scale medium-range aspects. Journal of Earth System Science 2011 120 1 27 52 2-s2.0-80052670999 10.1007/s12040-011-0013-5
11. Homar V., Stensrud D. J., Levit J. J., Bright D. R., Value of human-generated perturbations in short-range ensemble forecasts of severe weather. Weather and Forecasting 2006 21 3 347 363 2-s2.0-33745857997 10.1175/WAF920.1 (Pubitemid 44028375)
12. Stensrud D. J., Parameterizations Schemes 2007 New York, NY, USA Cambridge University Press
13. The WRF Model Version 3.4. 2012, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/wrfv3. 4/wrf-model.html
14. Tapiador F., Tao W. K., Shi J. J., Angelis C. F., Martinez M. A., Marcos C., Rodriguez A., Hou A., A comparison of perturbed initial conditions and multiphysics ensembles in severe weather episode in Spain. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2012 51 3 489 504
15. He Y., Wetterhall F., Cloke H. L., Pappenberger F., Wilson M., Freer J., McGregor G., Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorological Applications 2009 16 1 91 101 2-s2.0-69249221494 10.1002/met.132
16. Brown J. D., Seo D. J., Du J., Verification of precipitation forecasts from NCEP's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system with reference to ensemble streamflow prediction using lamped hydrological models. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2012 13 808 836
17. Demargne J., Wu L., Regonda S. K., Brown J. D., Lee H., He M., Seo D. J., Hartman R., Herr H. D., Fresch M., Schaake J., Zhu Y., The science of NOAA's operational hydrologic ensemble forecast service. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2014 95 79 98
18. Diomede T., Marsigli C., Montani A., Nerozzi F., Paccagnella T., Calibration of limited-srea ensemble precipitation forecasts for hydrological predictions. Monthly Weather Review 2014 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00071.1
19. Surcel M., Zawadzki I., Yau M. K., On the filtering properties of ensemble averaging for storm-scale precipitation forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 2014 142 1093 1105
20. Liu X., Coulibaly P., Downscaling ensemble weather predictions for improved week-2 hydrologic forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2011 12 6 1564 1580 2-s2.0-84858171439 10.1175/2011JHM1366.1
21. Guilhon L. G. F., Rocha V. F., Moreira J. C., Comparison between methods of streamflow forecast and hydreletrical uses. Brazilian Journal of Water Resources 2007 12 13 20
22. Tucci C. E. M., Villanueva A. O. N., Flood control measure in União da Vitória and Porto União: structural x non-structural measures. Urban Water 2000 1 177 182
23. Marshall J. S., Palmer W. M., The distribution of raindrops with size. Journal of Meteorology 1948 5 4 165 166
24. Pereira Filho A. J., Crawford K. C., Hartzell C. L., Improving WSR-88D hourly rainfall estimates. Weather and Forecasting 1998 13 4 1016 1028 2-s2.0-0032419441 (Pubitemid 29184455)
25. Adler R. F., Negri A. J., A satellite infrared technique to estimate tropical convective and stratiform rainfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology 1988 27 30 51
26. Pereira Filho A. J., Integrating gauge, radar and satellite rainfall. Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop of the International Working Group 2004 Monterey, Calif, USA
27. Skamarok W. C., Klemp J. B., Dudhia J., Gill D. O., Barker D. M., Duda M. G., Huang X. Y., Wang W., Powers J. G., A description of the advanced research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note 2008. http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/ arw-v3.pdf
28. Ma J. H., Zhu Y. J., Wobus R., Wang P. X., An effective configuration of ensemble size and horizontal resolution for the NCEP GEFS. Advances in Atmospheric Science 2012 29 782 794
29. Walser A., Arpagaus M., Appenzeller C., Leutbecher M., The impact of moist singular vectors and horizontal resolution on short-range limited-area ensemble forecasts for two European winter storms. Monthly Weather Review 2006 134 10 2877 2887 2-s2.0-33750463098 10.1175/MWR3210.1 (Pubitemid 44649926)
30. Kain J. S., Weiss S. J., Bright D. R., Baldwin M. E., Levit J. J., Carbin G. W., Schwartz C. S., Weisman M. L., Droegemeier K. K., Weber D. B., Thomas K. W., Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Weather and Forecasting 2008 23 5 931 952 2-s2.0-60349094858 10.1175/WAF2007106.1
31. Beaven K., TOPMODEL: a critique. Hydrological Processes 1997 11 9 1069 1085
32. Saulnier G.-M., Datin R., Analytical solution to a bias in the TOPMODEL framework balance. Hydrological Processes 2004 18 7 1195 1218 2-s2.0-2442481708 10.1002/hyp.1346 (Pubitemid 38616077)
33. Danielson J. J., Gesh D. B., Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010). U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011 2011-1073
34. Calvetti L., Beneti C., Oliveira A., Gonçalves J. E., Pereira Filho A. J., Use of WRF and TopModel for streamflow forecast at Iguaçu Watershed, Paraná Brazil. Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting and Hydrology 2006 Boulder, Colo, USA
35. Jolliffe I. T., Stephenson D. B., Forecast Verification-A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science 2003 Chichester, UK Wiley
36. Wilks D. S., Statistical Methods in Atmospheric Sciences 1995 New York, NY, USA Academic Press
37. Takacs L. L., A two-step scheme for the advection equation with minimized dissipation and dispersion errors. Monthly Weather Review 1985 113 6 1050 1065 2-s2.0-0022170702
38. Stensrud D. J., Yussouf N., Reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecasting system. Weather and Forecasting 2007 22 1 3 17 2-s2.0-33947269252 10.1175/WAF968.1 (Pubitemid 46416748)
39. Yuan H., Mullen S. L., Gao X., Sorooshian S., Du J., Juang H.-M. H., Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States during winter 2002/03 by the RSM ensemble system. Monthly Weather Review 2005 133 1 279 294 2-s2.0-14344264930 10.1175/MWR-2858.1 (Pubitemid 40295091)
40. Thirel G., Rousset-Regimbeau F., Martin E., Habets F., On the impact of short-range meteorological forecasts for ensemble stream flow predictions. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2008 9 6 1301 1317 2-s2.0-65349090818 10.1175/2008JHM959.1
41. Infanti J., Kirtman B., Southeast US rainfall prediction in the North American multi-model ensemble. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2014 15 529 550 10.1175/JHM-D-13-072.1
42. Ushiyama T., Sayama T., Tatebe Y., Fujioka S., Fukami K., Numerical simulation of 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River Basin by using lagged ensemble rainfall forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2014 15 193 211
43. Juanzhen S., Wang H., WRF-ARW variational storm-scale data assimilation: current capabilities and future developments. Advances in Meteorology 2013 2013 13 815910 10.1155/2013/815910
44. Tang Q., Xie L., Lackmann G. M., Liu B., Modeling the impacts of the large-scale atmospheric environment on inland flooding during the landfall of hurricane floyd (1999). Advances in Meteorology 2013 2013 16 294956 10.1155/2013/294956