Risk, uncertainty, and heuristics

Journal of Business Research

Volumn 67, Issue 8, 2014, Pages 1671-1678

  Mousavi, Shabnam ^a,b   Gigerenzer, Gerd ^b  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT   (Germany)

Author keywords

Business decision making; Complexity; Fast and frugal heuristics; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

EID: 84901194917     PISSN: 01482963     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.02.013     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Axelrod R. The evolution of cooperation 1984, Basic Books, New York.
2. Bernstein P.L. Against the gods: The remarkable story of risk 1996, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., (1998).
3. Bewley T.F. Knightian decision theory. Part I. Decision in Economics and Finance 2002, 25:79-110.
4. Boyd M. On ignorance, intuition and investing: A bear market test of the recognition heuristic. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 2001, 2:150-156.
5. Boyd R., Richardson P.J. The origin and evolution of cultures 2005, Oxford University Press, New York.
6. Brighton H.J., Gigerenzer G. Homo heuristicus and the bias-variance dilemma. Action, perception and the brain: Adaptation and cephalic expression 2012, 68-91. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke. J. Schulkin (Ed.).
7. Daston L. Classical probability in the enlightenment 1988, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
8. Dawes R.M. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist 1979, 34:571-582.
9. DeMiguel V., Garlappi L., Uppal R. Optimal versus naïve diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy?. Review of Financial Studies 2009, 22:1915-1953.
10. Gaissmaier W., Schooler L.J., Rieskamp J. Simple predictions fueled by capacity limitations: When are they successful?. Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition 2006, 32:966-982.
11. Gigerenzer G. Gut feelings: The intelligence of the unconscious 2007, Viking Press, New York.
12. Gigerenzer G. Risk savvy: How to make good decisions 2014, Viking, New York.
13. Gigerenzer G., Brighton H. Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science 2009, 1:107-143.
14. Gigerenzer G., Gaissmaier W., Kurz-Milcke E., Schwartz L.M., Woloshin S. Helping doctors and patients to make sense of health statistics. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 2007, 8:53-96.
15. Gigerenzer G., Goldstein D.G. Mind as computer: Birth of a metaphor. Creativity Research Journal 1996, 9:131-144.
16. Gigerenzer G., Goldstein D.G. The recognition heuristic: A decade of research. Judgment and Decision Making 2011, 6:100-121.
17. Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior 2011, Oxford University Press, New York. G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, T. Pachur (Eds.).
18. Gigerenzer G., Sturm T. How (far) can rationality be naturalized?. Synthese 2012, 187:243-268.
19. Gigerenzer G., Todd P.M., the ABC Research Group Simple heuristics that make us smart 1999, Oxford University Press, New York.
20. Goldstein D.G., Gigerenzer G. Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. Psychological Review 2002, 109:75-90.
21. Graham J.R., Harvey C.R., Puri M. Capital allocation and delegation of decision-making authority within firms. Working paper 2012, Duke University, (Available: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1527098).
22. Haldane A.G. The Dog and the Frisbee. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 36th economic policy symposium, "The changing policy landscape" Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA 2012.
23. Hey J.D. Search for rules for search. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1982, 3:65-81.
24. Hogarth R.M., Karelaia N. Heuristic and linear models of judgment: Matching rules and environments. Psychological Review 2007, 114(3):733-758. (7).
25. Johnson E.J., Goldstein D.G. Do defaults save lives?. Science 2003, 302:1338-1339.
26. Kahneman D., Frederick S. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment 2002, 49-81. Cambridge Univ. Press, New York. T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, D. Kahneman (Eds.).
27. Katsikopoulos K.V., Gigerenzer G. Behavioral operations management: A blind spot and a research program. Journal of Supply Chain Management 2013, 49:3-7.
28. Knight F.H. Risk, uncertainty and profit 1921, Dover 2006 unabridged republication of the edition published by, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston and New York.
29. Marewski J.N., Gaissmaier W., Gigerenzer G. We favor formal models of heuristics rather than lists of loose dichotomies: A reply to Evans and Over. Cognitive Processing 2010, 11:177-179.
30. Marewski J.N., Schooler L.J. Cognitive niches: An ecological model of strategy selection. Psychological Review 2011, 118(3):393-437. (2011).
31. Martignon L., Hoffrage U. Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison. Theory and Decision 2002, 52(1):29-71.
32. McBeath M.K., Shafer D.M., Kaiser M.K. How baseball outfielders determine where to run to catch fly balls. Science 1995, 268:569-573.
33. Mousavi S., Gigerenzer G. Revisiting the "error" in studies of cognitive errors. Errors In Organizations 2011, 97-112. Taylor & Francis, New York. D.A. Hofmann, M. Frese (Eds.).
34. Ortmann A., Gigerenzer G., Borges B., Goldstein D.G. The recognition heuristic: A fast and frugal way to investment choice?. Handbook of experimental economics results 1 2008, 993-1003. North-Holland, Amsterdam, (Handbooks in Economics No. 28). C.R. Plott, V.L. Smith (Eds.).
35. Savage L.J. The foundations of statistics 1954, John Wiley and Sons, New York: Dover, (1972 edition of the original 1954).
36. Scheibehenne B., Bröder A. Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition. International Journal of Forecasting 2007, 23:415-426.
37. Schooler L.J., Hertwig R. How forgetting aids heuristic inference. Psychological Review 2005, 112:610-628.
38. Serwe S., Frings C. Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2006, 19:321-332.
39. Shah A.K., Oppenheimer D.M. Heuristics made easy: an effort-reduction framework. Psychological Bulletin 2008, 137:207-222.
40. Shapira Z. Risk taking: A managerial perspective 1994, The Russell Sage Foundation, New York.
41. Shefrin H. Assessing the contribution of Hyman Minsky's perspective to our understanding of economic instability. Working paper 2013, Santa Clara University, (Available: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2311045).
42. Simon H.A. A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics 1955, 69:99-118.
43. Todd P.M., Gigerenzer G., the ABC Research group Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world 2012, Oxford University Press, New York.
44. von Neumann J., Morgenstern O. Theory of games and economic behavior 1944, Princeton University Press.
45. Wall Street Journal: Speech of the Year 2012 Available:. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10000872396390444273704577637792879194380.
46. Wübben M., Wangenheim F.v Instant Customer Base Analysis: Managerial Heuristics Often "Get It Right". Journal of Marketing 2008, 72:82-93. (May 2008).