-
1
-
-
17144426137
-
The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: Two aces of subjective randomness?
-
Ayton, P., & Fischer, I. (2004). The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: Two aces of subjective randomness? Memory & Cognition, 32, 1369-1378.
-
(2004)
Memory & Cognition
, vol.32
, pp. 1369-1378
-
-
Ayton, P.1
Fischer, I.2
-
3
-
-
0024651729
-
The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task
-
Cosmides, L. (1989). The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task. Cognition, 31, 187-276.
-
(1989)
Cognition
, vol.31
, pp. 187-276
-
-
Cosmides, L.1
-
4
-
-
0030101656
-
The false consensus effect and overconfidence: Flaws in judgment, or flaws in how we study judgment?
-
Dawes, R. M., & Mulford, M. (1996). The false consensus effect and overconfidence: Flaws in judgment, or flaws in how we study judgment? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 201-211.
-
(1996)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.65
, pp. 201-211
-
-
Dawes, R.M.1
Mulford, M.2
-
5
-
-
84924412832
-
Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy?
-
DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy? Review of Financial Studies, 22, 1915-1953.
-
(2009)
Review of Financial Studies
, vol.22
, pp. 1915-1953
-
-
DeMiguel, V.1
Garlappi, L.2
Uppal, R.3
-
6
-
-
12044259660
-
Simultaneous over- and undercon-fidence: The role of error in judgment processes
-
Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and undercon-fidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519-527.
-
(1994)
Psychological Review
, vol.101
, pp. 519-527
-
-
Erev, I.1
Wallsten, T.S.2
Budescu, D.V.3
-
8
-
-
0000714472
-
On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996)
-
Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996). Psychological Review, 103, 592-596.
-
(1996)
Psychological Review
, vol.103
, pp. 592-596
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
-
10
-
-
85124307781
-
Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon & Schuster
-
(UK edition: London: Penguin Books, 2002)
-
Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon & Schuster. (UK edition: Reckoning with risk: Learning to live with uncertainty. London: Penguin Books, 2002)
-
(2002)
Reckoning with risk: Learning to live with uncertainty
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
-
11
-
-
20444474867
-
I think, therefore I err
-
Gigerenzer, G. (2005). I think, therefore I err. Social Research, 72, 1, 195-218.
-
(2005)
Social Research
, vol.72
, Issue.1
, pp. 195-218
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
-
12
-
-
76549098148
-
Heuristics
-
In G. Gigerenzer & C. Engel (Eds.), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
-
Gigerenzer, G. (2006). Heuristics. In G. Gigerenzer & C. Engel (Eds.), Heuristics and the law (pp. 17-44). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
-
(2006)
Heuristics and the law
, pp. 17-44
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
-
13
-
-
58149179247
-
Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics
-
Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., Kurz-Milke, E., Schwartz, L., & Woloshin, S. (2007). Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 8(2), 53-96.
-
(2007)
Psychological Science in the Public Interest
, vol.8
, Issue.2
, pp. 53-96
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Gaissmaier, W.2
Kurz-Milke, E.3
Schwartz, L.4
Woloshin, S.5
-
14
-
-
0026234897
-
Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
-
Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
-
(1991)
Psychological Review
, vol.98
, pp. 506-528
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Hoffrage, U.2
Kleinbölting, H.3
-
15
-
-
11944267218
-
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
-
Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704.
-
(1995)
Psychological Review
, vol.102
, pp. 684-704
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Hoffrage, U.2
-
16
-
-
0026856799
-
Domain-specific reasoning: Social contracts, cheating, and perspective change
-
Gigerenzer, G., & Hug, K. (1992). Domain-specific reasoning: Social contracts, cheating, and perspective change. Cognition, 43, 127-171.
-
(1992)
Cognition
, vol.43
, pp. 127-171
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Hug, K.2
-
18
-
-
44049114641
-
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
-
Griffin, D. W., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411-435.
-
(1992)
Cognitive Psychology
, vol.24
, pp. 411-435
-
-
Griffin, D.W.1
Tversky, A.2
-
19
-
-
22844456018
-
The "conjunction fallacy" revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors
-
Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The "conjunction fallacy" revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 275-305.
-
(1999)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.12
, pp. 275-305
-
-
Hertwig, R.1
Gigerenzer, G.2
-
20
-
-
0014285291
-
Visible distances and safe approach speeds for night driving
-
Johansson, G., & Rumar, K. (1968). Visible distances and safe approach speeds for night driving. Ergonomics, 11, 275-282.
-
(1968)
Ergonomics
, vol.11
, pp. 275-282
-
-
Johansson, G.1
Rumar, K.2
-
21
-
-
0033447148
-
Format dependence in subjective probability calibration
-
Juslin, P., Wennerholm, P., & Olsson, H. (1999). Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 25, 1038-1052.
-
(1999)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
, vol.25
, pp. 1038-1052
-
-
Juslin, P.1
Wennerholm, P.2
Olsson, H.3
-
22
-
-
0034169210
-
Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect
-
Juslin, P., Winman, A., & Olssen, H. (2000). Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review, 107, 384-396.
-
(2000)
Psychological Review
, vol.107
, pp. 384-396
-
-
Juslin, P.1
Winman, A.2
Olssen, H.3
-
23
-
-
34548813857
-
The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals
-
Juslin, P., Winman, A., & Hansson, P. (2007). The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. Psychological Review, 114, 678-703.
-
(2007)
Psychological Review
, vol.114
, pp. 678-703
-
-
Juslin, P.1
Winman, A.2
Hansson, P.3
-
24
-
-
0003768818
-
-
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
-
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
-
(1982)
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
-
-
Kahneman, D.1
Slovic, P.2
Tversky, A.3
-
25
-
-
0002941732
-
Calibration of subjective probabilities: The state of the art up to 1980
-
In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
-
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D. (1982). Calibration of subjective probabilities: The state of the art up to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
-
(1982)
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
, pp. 306-334
-
-
Lichtenstein, S.1
Fischhoff, B.2
Phillips, L.D.3
-
26
-
-
0346907827
-
Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average
-
Odean, T. (1998). Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average. Journal of Finance, 53, 1887-1934.
-
(1998)
Journal of Finance
, vol.53
, pp. 1887-1934
-
-
Odean, T.1
-
27
-
-
38149146674
-
Are we overconfident in the belief that probability forecasters are overconfident?
-
Pfeifer, P. E. (1994). Are we overconfident in the belief that probability forecasters are overconfident? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 203-213.
-
(1994)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.58
, pp. 203-213
-
-
Pfeifer, P.E.1
-
30
-
-
0013136339
-
Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
-
Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psyhologica, 47, 143-148.
-
(1981)
Acta Psyhologica
, vol.47
, pp. 143-148
-
-
Svenson, O.1
-
31
-
-
0018237169
-
Risks of road transportation in a psychological perspective
-
Svenson, O. (1978). Risks of road transportation in a psychological perspective. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 10, 267-280.
-
(1978)
Accident Analysis and Prevention
, vol.10
, pp. 267-280
-
-
Svenson, O.1
-
32
-
-
0022046578
-
Perceived driving safety and seatbelt usage
-
Svenson, O., Fischhoff, B., & MacGregor, D. (1985). Perceived driving safety and seatbelt usage. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 17, 119-133.
-
(1985)
Accident Analysis and Prevention
, vol.17
, pp. 119-133
-
-
Svenson, O.1
Fischhoff, B.2
MacGregor, D.3
-
33
-
-
0005194767
-
-
(Evolution and Cognition Series). New York: Oxford University Press
-
Trivers, R. (2002). Natural selection and social theory (Evolution and Cognition Series). New York: Oxford University Press.
-
(2002)
Natural selection and social theory
-
-
Trivers, R.1
-
34
-
-
43249084062
-
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
-
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315.
-
(1983)
Psychological Review
, vol.90
, pp. 293-315
-
-
Tversky, A.1
Kahneman, D.2
-
35
-
-
0001353553
-
Reasoning
-
In B. M. Foss (Ed.), Hammondsworth, England: Penguin
-
Wason, P. C. (1966). Reasoning. In B. M. Foss (Ed.), New horizons in psychology. Hammondsworth, England: Penguin.
-
(1966)
New horizons in psychology
-
-
Wason, P.C.1
-
36
-
-
7544228578
-
Subjective probability intervals: How to reduce "overconfidence" by interval evaluation
-
Winman, A., Hansson, P., & Juslin, P. (2004). Subjective probability intervals: How to reduce "overconfidence" by interval evaluation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 1167-1175.
-
(2004)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
, vol.30
, pp. 1167-1175
-
-
Winman, A.1
Hansson, P.2
Juslin, P.3
|