The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States

PLoS ONE

Volumn 9, Issue 3, 2014, Pages

  Buhnerkempe, Michael G ^a,e,f   Tildesley, Michael J ^b   Lindström, Tom ^c   Grear, Daniel A ^a   Portacci, Katie ^d   Miller, Ryan S ^d   Lombard, Jason E ^d   Werkman, Marleen ^b   Keeling, Matt J ^b   Wennergren, Uno ^c   Webb, Colleen T ^a  

^a Veterinary Dentistry and Oral Surgery   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK   (United Kingdom)

^c LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^d CENTERS FOR EPIDEMIOLOGY AND ANIMAL HEALTH   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^f NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CATTLE DISEASE; CATTLE FARMING; DATA BASE; DISEASE SIMULATION; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; INFECTION RISK; LIVESTOCK; NONHUMAN; UNITED STATES; ANIMAL; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BOVINE; CATTLE DISEASES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; GEOGRAPHY; MOVEMENT (PHYSIOLOGY); POPULATION DENSITY; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; RISK FACTOR; TRANSMISSION; VETERINARY;

ANIMALS; CATTLE; CATTLE DISEASES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; GEOGRAPHY; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MOVEMENT; POPULATION DENSITY; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; RISK FACTORS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84899896875     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091724     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Yang PC, Chu RM, Chung WB, Sung HT (1999) Epidemiological characteristics and financial costs of the 1997 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Taiwan. Vet Rec 145: 731-734. (Pubitemid 30009285)
2. Thompson D, Muriel P, Russell D, Osborne P, Bromley A, et al. (2002) Economic costs of the foot and mouth disease outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. Rev Sci Tech 21: 675-687. (Pubitemid 36080133)
3. Keeling MJ, Woolhouse MEJ, Shaw DJ, Matthews L, Chase-Topping M, et al. (2001) Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294: 813-817. (Pubitemid 33032092)
4. Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM (2001) The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292: 1155-1160. (Pubitemid 32440936)
5. Keeling MJ, Woolhouse MEJ, May RM, Davies G, Grenfell BT (2003) Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease. Nature 421: 136-142. (Pubitemid 36090974)
6. Tildesley MJ, Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Deardon R, Brooks SP, et al. (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440: 83-86. (Pubitemid 43336271)
7. Chis Ster I, Ferguson NM (2007) Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS ONE 2: e502. doi:10.1371/journal.pone. 0000502
8. Chis Ster I, Singh BK, Ferguson NM (2009) Epidemiological inference for partially observed epidemics: the example of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Epidemics 1: 21-34.
9. Green DM, Kiss IZ, Kao RR (2006) Modelling the initial spread of foot-and-mouth disease through animal movements. Proc Biol Sci 273: 2729-2735. (Pubitemid 44671916)
10. Kao RR, Danon L, Green DM, Kiss IZ (2006) Demographic structure and pathogen dynamics on the network of livestock movements in Great Britain. Proc Biol Sci 273: 1999-2007. (Pubitemid 44214912)
11. Kiss IZ, Green DM, Kao RR (2006) The network of sheep movements within Great Britain: network properties and their implications for infectious disease spread. J R Soc Interface 3: 669-677. (Pubitemid 44696252)
12. Ortiz-Pelaez A, Pfeiffer DU, Soares-Magalhães RJ, Guitian FJ (2006) Use of social network analysis to characterize the pattern of animal movements in the initial phases of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the UK. Prev Vet Med 76: 40-55. (Pubitemid 44148837)
13. Kao RR, Green DM, Johnson J, Kiss IZ (2007) Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK. J R Soc Interface 4: 907-916. (Pubitemid 47523495)
14. Robinson SE, Everett MG, Christley RM (2007) Recent network evolution increases the potential for large epidemics in the British cattle population. J R Soc Interface 4: 669-674. (Pubitemid 47204165)
15. National Agricultural Statistics Service, US Department of Agriculture (2007) Census of Agriculture. Available: http://www.nass.usda.gov/census.
16. Shields DA, Mathews KH (2003) Interstate livestock movements. USDA ERS Outlook Report LDP-M-108-01. Available: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/312234/ ldpm10801-1-.pdf.
17. Harvey N, Reeves A, Schoenbaum MA, Zagmutt-Vergara FJ, Dubé C, et al. (2007) The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: a simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions. Prev Vet Med 82: 176-197. (Pubitemid 350001210)
18. Bates TW, Thurmond MC, Carpenter TE (2003) Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Am J Vet Res 64: 195-204. (Pubitemid 36181662)
19. Speck DE (2008) Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) decision support system. US Department of Energy Report LLNL-TR-404724. Available: https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/360630.pdf.
20. Portacci K, Miller RS, Riggs PD, Buhnerkempe MG, Abrahamsen LM (2013) Assessment of paper Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection to support disease tracing in cattle. J Am Vet Med Assoc 234: 555-560.
21. Csardi G, Nepusz T (2006) The igraph software package for complex network research. InterJournal Complex Systems 1695.
22. R Development Core Team (2012) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
23. Lindström T, Lewerin SS, Wennergren U (2012) Influence on disease spread dynamics of herd characteristics in a structured livestock industry. J R Soc Interface 9: 1287-1294.
24. Lindström T, Grear DA, Buhnerkempe M, Webb CT, Miller RS, et al. (2013) A Bayesian approach for modeling cattle movements in the United States: scaling up a partially observed network. PLoS ONE 8: e53432. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0053432
25. Sattenspiel L, Dietz KA (1995) structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions. Math Biosci 128: 71-91. (Pubitemid 26429518)
26. Hanski I, Gaggiotti OE, editors (2004) Ecology, Genetics and Evolution of Metapopulations. Burlington, MA: Elsevier Academic Press. 696 p.
27. Smith DL, Lucey B, Waller LA, Childs JE, Real LA (2002) Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99: 3668-3672. (Pubitemid 34252164)
28. Ovaskainen O, Hanski I (2001) Spatially structured metapopulation models: global and local assessment of metapopulation capacity. Theor Popul Biol 60: 281-302. (Pubitemid 34271304)
29. Ovaskainen O (2002) The effective size of a metapopulation living in a heterogeneous patch network. Am Nat 160: 612-628.
30. US Department of Agriculture (2011) Small-scale U.S. Cow-calf Operations. Report 596.0411, USDA-APHIS-VS, CEAH, Fort Collins, CO.
31. US Department of Agriculture (2008) Dairy 2007, Part II: Changes in the U.S. Dairy Cattle Industry, 1991-2007. Report N481.0308, USDA-APHIS-VS, CEAH, Fort Collins, CO.
32. Buhnerkempe MG, Grear DA, Portacci K, Miller RS, Lombard JE, et al. (2013) A national-scale picture of U.S. cattle movements obtained from Interstate Certificate of Veterinary Inspection data. Prev Vet Med 112: 318-329.
33. Vernon MC, Keeling MJ (2012) Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain. Prev Vet Med 105: 110-117.
34. National Research Council (2010) Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the Department of Homeland Security's Planned National Bio- and Agro- Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
35. National Research Council (2012) Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
36. Bajardi P, Barrat A, Natale F, Savini L, Colizza V (2011) Dynamical patterns of cattle trade movements. PLoS ONE 6: e19869. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0019869
37. Bajardi P, Barrat A, Savini L, Colizza V (2012) Optimizing surveillance for livestock disease spreading through animal movements. J R Soc Interface 9: 2814-2825.
38. National Agricultural Statistics Service, US Department of Agriculture (2012) Quick stats Washington, DC. Available: http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.
39. Tildesley MJ, Deardon R, Savill NJ, Bessell PR, Brooks SP, et al. (2008) Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proc Biol Sci 275: 1459-1468. (Pubitemid 351653018)