Demographic structure and pathogen dynamics on the network of livestock movements in Great Britain

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 273, Issue 1597, 2006, Pages 1999-2007

  Kao, R R ^a   Danon, L ^b   Green, D M ^a   Kiss, I Z ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Control; Disease; Ergodicity; Foot and mouth disease; Percolation

Indexed keywords

EPIDEMIC; FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; LIVESTOCK; MOVEMENT; PATHOGEN; RISK ASSESSMENT;

ARTICLE; AUTUMN; DATA BASE; DEMOGRAPHY; DISEASE SIMULATION; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; LIVESTOCK; NONHUMAN; PATHOGENICITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK FACTOR; SUMMER; UNITED KINGDOM;

EURASIA; EUROPE; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 33747053644     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3505     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Albert, R., Jeong, H. & Barabasi, A. L. 2000 Error and attack tolerance of complex networks. Nature 406, 378-382. (doi:10.1038/35019019)
2. Alexandersen, S., Kitching, R. P., Mansley, L. M. & Donaldson, A. I. 2003a Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Vet. Rec. 152, 489-496.
3. Alexandersen, S., Quan, M., Murphy, C. & Zhang, Z. 2003b Studies of quantitative parameters of virus excretion and transmission in pigs and cattle experimentally infected with foot-and-mouth disease virus. J. Comp. Pathol. 129, 268-282. (doi:10.1016/80021-9975(03)00045-8)
4. Anderson, I. 2002 Foot & Mouth Disease 2001: Lessons to be Learned Inquiry Report. London, UK: The Stationary Office.
5. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1991 Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
6. Barrat, A., Barthelemy, M., Pastor-Satorras, R. & Vespignani, A. 2004 The architecture of complex weighted networks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 3747-3752. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0400087101)
7. Boots, M., Hudson, P. J. & Sasaki, A. 2004 Large shifts in pathogen virulence relate to host population structure. Science 303, 842-844. (doi:10.1126/science.1088542)
8. Bourn, J. 2003 In Identifying and tracking livestock in England vol. HC 1144 (ed. NAO). London, UK: The Stationary Office.
9. 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J. Math. Biol. 28, 365-382.
10. Eubank, S., Guclu, H., Kumar, V. S., Marathe, M. V., Srinivasan, A., Toroczkai, Z. & Wang, N. 2004 Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks. Nature 429, 180-184. (doi:10.1038/nature02541)
11. Gibbens, J. C. & Wilesmith, J. W. 2002 Temporal and geographical distribution of cases of foot-and-mouth disease during the early weeks of the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Vet. Rec. 151, 407-412.
12. Gibbens, J. C., Sharpe, C. E., Wilesmith, J. W., Mansley, L. M., Michalopoulou, E., Ryan, J. B. & Hudson, M. 2001 Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months. Vet. Rec. 149, 729-743.
13. Gloster, J., Champion, H. J., Sorensen, J. H., Mikkelsen, T., Ryall, D. B., Astrup, P., Alexandersen, S. & Donaldson, A. I. 2003 Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland, during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Vet. Rec. 152, 525-533.
14. Haydon, D. T., Kao, R. R. & Kitching, R. P. 2004 The UK foot-and-mouth disease outbreak-the aftermath. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 2, 675-681. (doi:10.1038/nrmicro960)
15. Hughes, G. J., Mioulet, V., Haydon, D. T., Kitching, R. P., Donaldson, A. I. & Woolhouse, M. E. 2002 Serial passage of foot-and-mouth disease virus in sheep reveals declining levels of viraemia over time. J. Gen. Virol. 83, 1907-1914.
16. Kao, R. R. 2002 The role of mathematical modelling in the control of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK. Trends Microbiol. 10, 279-286. (doi:10.1016/S0966- 842X(02)02371-5)
17. Kao, R. R. 2003 The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease. Proc. R. Soc. B 270, 2557-2564. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2546)
18. Kiss, I. Z., Green, D. M. & Kao, R. R. 2005 Disease contact tracing in random and clustered networks. Proc. R. Soc. B 272, 1407-1414. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3092)
19. Kiss, I. Z., Green, D. M. & Kao, R. R. 2006 Infectious disease control using contact tracing in random and scale-free networks. Proc. R. Soc. Interface 3, 55-62. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2005.0079)
20. Mansley, L. M., Dunlop, P. J., Whiteside, S. M. & Smith, R. G. 2003 Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep markets in February 2001. Vet. Rec. 153, 43-50.
21. Meyers, L. A., Pourbohloul, B., Newman, M. E., Skowronski, D. M. & Brunham, R. C. 2005 Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity. J. Theor. Biol. 232, 71-81. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.07.026)
22. Moore, C. & Newman, M. E. 2000 Epidemics and percolation in small-world networks. Phys. Rev. E Stat. Phys. Plasmas Fluids Relat. Interdiscip. Topics 61, 5678-5682.
23. Newman, M. E. 2004 Fast algorithm for detecting community structure in networks. Phys. Rev. E Stat. Nonlin. Soft Matter Phys. 69, 066133.
24. Reichl, L. E. 1980 A modern course in statistical physics. Austin, TX: University of Texas Press.
25. Schwartz, N., Cohen, R., Ben-Avraham, D., Barabasi, A. L. & Havlin, S. 2002 Percolation in directed scale-free networks. Phys. Rev. E Stat. Nonlin. Soft Matter Phys. 66, 015104.
26. Sedgewick, R. 2002 Algorithms in C. In Graph algorithms, 3rd edn, pp. 197-208. Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley.
27. Stauffer, D. & Aharony, A. 1992 Introduction to percolation theory. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
28. Watts, C. H. & May, R. M. 1992 The influence of concurrent partnerships on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS. Math. Biosci. 108, 89-104. (doi:10.1016/0025-5564(92)90006-I)
29. Watts, D. & Strogatz, S. 1998 Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature 393, 440-442. (doi:10.1038/30918)
30. Wilesmith, J. W., Stevenson, M. A., King, C. B. & Morris, R. S. 2003 Spatio-temporal epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in two counties of Great Britain in 2001. Prev. Vet. Med. 61, 157-170. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2003.08. 002)