Influence on disease spread dynamics of herd characteristics in a structured livestock industry

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volumn 9, Issue 71, 2012, Pages 1287-1294

  Lindström, Tom ^a   Lewerin, Susanna Sternberg ^b   Wennergren, Uno ^a  

^a LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b NATIONAL VETERINARY INSTITUTE   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Animal movement; Disease spread modelling; Heterogeneous contact structure

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ANIMALS; DYNAMICS; FORECASTING;

ANIMAL MOVEMENT; COMPARATIVE STUDIES; CONTACT STRUCTURE; DETAILED MODELS; DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DYNAMIC BEHAVIOURS; INFLUENTIAL FACTORS; INITIAL RATE; LEVELS OF DETAIL;

EPIDEMIOLOGY;

ANIMAL EXPERIMENT; ARTICLE; DISEASE MODEL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; HERD; INFECTION SENSITIVITY; LIVESTOCK; NONHUMAN; PIG FARMING; RISK ASSESSMENT; SWEDEN;

ANIMALIA; SUIDAE;

EID: 84863580218     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0625     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Robinson, S. E. & Christley, R. M. 2007 Exploring the role of auction markets in cattle movements within Great Britain. Prev. Vet. Med. 81, 21-37. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.04.011)
2. Nöremark, M., Håkansson, N., Lindström, T., Wennergren, U. & Lewerin Stenberg, S. 2009 Spatial and temporal investigations of reported movements, births and deaths of cattle and pigs in Sweden. Acta Vet. Scand. 51, 37. (doi:10.1186/1751-0147-51-37)
3. Lindström, T., Sisson, S. A., Nöremark, M., Jonsson, A. &Wennergren, U. 2009 Estimation of distance related probability of animal movements between holdings and implications for disease spread modeling. Prev. Vet. Med. 91, 85-94. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.05.022)
4. Lindström, T., Sisson, S. A., Lewerin Stenberg, S. &Wennergren, U. 2010 Estimating animal movement contacts between holdings of different production types. Prev. Vet. Med. 95, 23-31. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.03. 002)
5. Lindström, T., Sisson, S. A., Stenberg Lewerin, S. &Wennergren, U. 2011 Bayesian analysis of animal movements related to factors at herd and between herd levels: Implications for disease spread modeling. Prev. Vet. Med. 98, 230-242. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.11.005)
6. Ribbens, S., Dewulf, J., Koenen, F., Mintiens, K., de Kruif, A. & Maes, D. 2009 Type and frequency of contacts between Belgian pig herds. Prev. Vet. Med. 88, 57-66. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.08.002)
7. Bigras-Poulin, M., Barfod, K., Mortensen, S. & Greiner, M. 2007 Relationship of trade patterns of the Danish swine industry animal movements network to potential disease spread. Prev. Vet. Med. 80, 143-165. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.02.004)
8. Volkova, V. V., Howey, R., Savill, N. J. & Woolhouse, M. E. 2010 Sheep movement networks and the transmission of infectious diseases. PLoS ONE 5, e11185. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011185)
9. Martinez-Lopez, B., Perez, A. M. & Sanchez-Vizcaino, J. M. 2009 Combined application of social network and cluster detection analyses for temporal-spatial characterization of animal movements in Salamanca, Spain. Prev. Vet. Med. 91, 29-38. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.05.007)
10. Vernon, M. C. & Keeling, M. J. 2009 Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks. Proc. R. Soc. B 276, 469-476. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.1009)
11. Kao, R. R., Green, D. M., Johnson, J. & Kiss, I. Z. 2007 Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK. J. R. Soc. Interface 4, 907-916. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2007.1129)
12. Velthuis, A. G. J. & Mourits, M. C. M. 2007 Effectiveness of movement-prevention regulations to reduce the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands. Prev. Vet. Med 82, 262-281. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007. 05.023)
13. Fèvre, E. M., Bronsvoort, B. M. D. C., Hamilton, K. A. &Cleaveland, S. 2006 Animal movements and the spread of infectious diseases. Trends Microbiol. 14, 125-131. (doi:10.1016/j.tim.2006.01.004)
14. Ribbens, S., Dewulf, J., Koenen, F., Mintiens, K., De Sadeleer, L., de Kruif, A. & Maes, D. 2008 A survey on biosecurity and management practices in Belgian pig herds. Prev. Vet. Med. 83, 228-241. (doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed. 2007.07.009)
15. Matthews, L. & Woolhouse, M. 2005 New approaches to quantifying the spread of infection. Nat. Rev. Micro. 3, 529-536. (doi:10.1038/nrmicro1178)
16. Duerr, H., Schwehm, M., Leary, C., De Vlas, S. & Eichner, M. 2007 The impact of contact structure on infectious disease control: influenza and antiviral agents. Epidemiol. Infect. 135, 1124-1132. (doi:10.1017/ S0950268807007959)
17. Eames, K. T. & Keeling, M. J. 2002 Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 13 330-13 335. (doi:10.1073/pnas.202244299)
18. Keeling, M. 2005 The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics. Theor. Popul. Biol. 67, 1-8. (doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2004.08.002)
19. Gamerman, D. & Lopez, H. F. 2006 Markov chain Monte Carlo: stochastic simulation for Bayesian inference, 2nd edn. London, UK: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
20. Lindström, T., Håkansson, N., Westerberg, L. & Wennergren, U. 2008 Splitting the tail of the displacement kernel shows the unimportance of kurtosis. Ecology 89, 1784-1790. (doi:10.1890/07-1363.1)
21. Lindström, T., Håkansson, N. & Wennergren, U. 2011 The shape of the spatial kernel and its implications for biological invasions in patchy environments. Proc. R. Soc. B 278, 1564-1571. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2010. 1902)
22. Tildesley, M. J. & Keeling, M. J. 2009 Is R0 a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK. J. Theor. Biol. 258, 623-629. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.019)
23. Kiss, I. Z., Green, D. M. & Kao, R. R. 2006 The effect of contact heterogeneity and multiple routes of transmission on final epidemic size. Math. Biosci. 203, 124-136. (doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.03.002)
24. Keeling, M. J. et al. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294, 813-817. (doi:10.1126/science.1065973)
25. Jalvingh, A. W., Nielen, M., Maurice, H., Stegeman, J. A., Elbers, A. R. W. & Dijkhuizen, A. A. 1999 Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands.: I. Description of simulation model. Prev. Vet. Med. 42, 271-295. (doi:10.1016/S0167-5877(99)00080-X)
26. Nöremark, N., Frössling, J. & Sternberg Lewerin, S. 2010 Application of routines that contribute to on-farm biosecurity as reported by Swedish livestock farmers. Transboundary Emerg. Dis. 57, 225-236. (doi:10.1111/j.1865-1682.2010.01140.x)