메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 67, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 625-645

When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Author keywords

Base rate neglect; Bayesian reasoning; Causality; Statistical reasoning

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; BAYES THEOREM; CASUISTRY; DECISION MAKING; FEMALE; HUMAN; LEARNING; MALE; PROBLEM SOLVING; STATISTICAL MODEL; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84897590968     PISSN: 17470218     EISSN: 17470226     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/17470218.2013.821709     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (31)
  • 1
    • 0001111897 scopus 로고
    • Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction
    • Ajzen, I. (1977). Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 303-314. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303
    • (1977) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.35 , pp. 303-314
    • Ajzen, I.1
  • 2
    • 36148974334 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes
    • Barbey, A. K., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30, 241-254. doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001653
    • (2007) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.30 , pp. 241-254
    • Barbey, A.K.1    Sloman, S.A.2
  • 3
    • 0000602959 scopus 로고
    • The base rate fallacy in probability judgements
    • Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base rate fallacy in probability judgements. Acta Psychologica, 44, 211-233. doi: 10.1016/0001-6918(80)90046-3
    • (1980) Acta Psychologica , vol.44 , pp. 211-233
    • Bar-Hillel, M.1
  • 4
    • 33646383633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Participant recruitment methods and statistical reasoning performance
    • Brase, G. L., Fiddick, L., & Harries, C. (2006). Participant recruitment methods and statistical reasoning performance. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 59, 965-976. doi: 10.1080/02724980543000132
    • (2006) Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.59 , pp. 965-976
    • Brase, G.L.1    Fiddick, L.2    Harries, C.3
  • 5
    • 70350142795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning
    • Chapman, G. B., & Liu, J. (2009). Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning. Judgement and Decision Making, 4(1), 34-40.
    • (2009) Judgement and Decision Making , vol.4 , Issue.1 , pp. 34-40
    • Chapman, G.B.1    Liu, J.2
  • 6
    • 0042123195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty
    • Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1-73. doi: 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8
    • (1996) Cognition , vol.58 , pp. 1-73
    • Cosmides, L.1    Tooby, J.2
  • 7
    • 70449567025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources
    • Crisp, A. K., & Feeney, A. (2009). Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62, 2320-2337. doi: 10.1080/17470210902783638
    • (2009) Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.62 , pp. 2320-2337
    • Crisp, A.K.1    Feeney, A.2
  • 8
    • 0002542465 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities
    • In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A., editors Cambridge, Cambridge,: Cambridge University Press
    • Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, (pp. 249-267). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 249-267
    • Eddy, D.M.1
  • 10
    • 70349760574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effortless nature of conflict detection during thinking
    • Franssens, S., & De Neys, W. (2009). The effortless nature of conflict detection during thinking. Thinking & Reasoning, 15, 105-128. doi: 10.1080/13546780802711185
    • (2009) Thinking & Reasoning , vol.15 , pp. 105-128
    • Franssens, S.1    De Neys, W.2
  • 11
    • 67649225036 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Natural frequencies help older adults and people with low numeracy to evaluate medical screening tests
    • Galesic, M., Gigerenzer, G., & Straubinger, N. (2009). Natural frequencies help older adults and people with low numeracy to evaluate medical screening tests. Medical Decision Making, 29(3), 368-371. doi: 10.1177/0272989X08329463
    • (2009) Medical Decision Making , vol.29 , Issue.3 , pp. 368-371
    • Galesic, M.1    Gigerenzer, G.2    Straubinger, N.3
  • 12
    • 11944267218 scopus 로고
    • How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
    • Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684
    • (1995) Psychological Review , vol.102 , pp. 684-704
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2
  • 13
    • 84897643869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causality
    • In: Zelazo P., editors New York, NY, New York, NY,: Oxford University Press
    • Gopnik, A. (2012). Causality. In P. Zelazo (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of developmental psychology, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
    • (2012) The Oxford handbook of developmental psychology
    • Gopnik, A.1
  • 14
    • 84897602409 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causal model and sampling approaches to reducing base rate neglect
    • In: Knauff M., Pauen M., Sebanz N., Wachsmuth I., editors Austin, TX, Austin, TX,: Cognitive Science Society
    • Hayes, B. K., Newell, B. R., & Hawkins, G. E. (2013). Causal model and sampling approaches to reducing base rate neglect. In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
    • (2013) Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
    • Hayes, B.K.1    Newell, B.R.2    Hawkins, G.E.3
  • 16
    • 58149417364 scopus 로고
    • On the psychology of prediction
    • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251. doi: 10.1037/h0034747
    • (1973) Psychological Review , vol.80 , pp. 237-251
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 17
    • 0029969593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges
    • Koehler, D. J. (1996). The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 1-16. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X00041157
    • (1996) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.19 , pp. 1-16
    • Koehler, D.J.1
  • 19
    • 0041153755 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the difficulties underlying Bayesian reasoning
    • Lewis, C., & Keren, G. (1999). On the difficulties underlying Bayesian reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 411-416. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.411
    • (1999) Psychological Review , vol.106 , pp. 411-416
    • Lewis, C.1    Keren, G.2
  • 20
    • 21844527187 scopus 로고
    • Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy
    • Macchi, L. (1995). Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 48A, 188-207. doi: 10.1080/14640749508401384
    • (1995) Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.48 A , pp. 188-207
    • Macchi, L.1
  • 21
    • 0000783881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Partitive formulation of information in probabilistic problems: Beyond heuristics and frequency format explanations
    • Macchi, L. (2000). Partitive formulation of information in probabilistic problems: Beyond heuristics and frequency format explanations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 82, 217-236. doi: 10.1006/obhd.2000.2895
    • (2000) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.82 , pp. 217-236
    • Macchi, L.1
  • 24
    • 80555145867 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant
    • Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science, 22, 1359-1366. doi: 10.1177/0956797611417632
    • (2011) Psychological Science , vol.22 , pp. 1359-1366
    • Simmons, J.P.1    Nelson, L.D.2    Simonsohn, U.3
  • 25
    • 79960000436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian inference with natural frequencies
    • Sirota, M., & Juanchich, M. (2011). Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian inference with natural frequencies. Studia Psychologica, 53(2). 151-161.
    • (2011) Studia Psychologica , vol.53 , Issue.2 , pp. 151-161
    • Sirota, M.1    Juanchich, M.2
  • 28
    • 84942607494 scopus 로고
    • Causal schemas in judgement under uncertainty
    • In: Fishbein M., editors Hillsdale, NJ, Hillsdale, NJ,: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
    • Tversky, A., & Kahenman, D. (1980). Causal schemas in judgement under uncertainty. In M. Fishbein (Ed.), Progress in social psychology, (pp. 49-72). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
    • (1980) Progress in social psychology , pp. 49-72
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahenman, D.2
  • 29
    • 0002554835 scopus 로고
    • Evidential impact of base rates
    • In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A., editors Cambridge, Cambridge,: Cambridge University Press
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Evidential impact of base rates. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, (pp. 153-160). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 153-160
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 31
    • 84876079877 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causal reasoning
    • In: Reisberg D., editors New York, NY, New York, NY,: Oxford University Press
    • Waldmann, M. R., & Hagmayer, Y. (2013). Causal reasoning. In D. Reisberg (Ed.), Oxford handbook of cognitive psychology, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
    • (2013) Oxford handbook of cognitive psychology
    • Waldmann, M.R.1    Hagmayer, Y.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.