On the difficulties underlying Bayesian reasoning: A comment on Gigerenzer and Hoffrage

Psychological Review

Volumn 106, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 411-416

  Lewis, Charles ^a   Keren, Gideon ^b  

^a EDUCATIONAL TESTING SERVICE   (United States)

^b EINDHOVEN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0041153755     PISSN: 0033295X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.411     Document Type: Review

References (12)

1. Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica 44, 211-233.
2. Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1-73.
3. Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 249-268). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
4. Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422-444). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
5. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond "heuristics and biases." European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83-115.
6. Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704.
7. Houston, A. (1986). The matching law applies to wagtails' foraging in the wild. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 45, 15-18.
8. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
9. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 582-591.
10. Keren, G. (1990). Cognitive aids and debiasing methods: Can cognitive pills cure cognitive ills? In J. P. Caverni, J. M. Fabre, & M. Gonzales (Eds.), Cognitive biases. Advances in psychology, 68 (pp. 523-552). Amsterdam: North-Holland.
11. Pollard, P. (1993). How significant is significance? In G. Keren & C. Lewis (Eds.), A handbook for data analysis in the behavioral sciences: Methodological issues (pp. 449-460). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
12. Real, L. A. (1991). Animal choice behavior and the evolution of cognitive architecture. Science, 253, 980-986.