A Wave to Worry About? Public opinion, foreign policy and China's anti-Japan protests

Journal of Contemporary China

Volumn 23, Issue 86, 2014, Pages 197-215

  Reilly, James ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894230268     PISSN: 10670564     EISSN: 14699400     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2013.832519     Document Type: Article

References (131)

1. Cai Shangwei and Zhong Qin, '"Diaoyudao guoyouhua" shijian zhongguo zhengfude yulun yindao' ['The Chinese government's public opinion guidance over the "Diaoyu Islands nationalization" incident'], Renmin Wang, (16 October 2012), available at: http://media.people.com.cn/n/2012/1016/c40628-19281824.html.
2. Raymond Li, 'Papers go ballistic over Diaoyu dispute with Japan', South China Morning Post, (16 September 2012), available at: http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1037887/papers-go-ballisticover-diaoyu-dispute-japan.
3. June Teufel Dryer, 'The Sino stranglehold: how badly could the Chinese protests hurt Japan's economy?', Foreign Policy, (21 September 2012), available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/21/the_sino_ stranglehold.
4. Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, 'Dangerous waters: why China's dispute with Japan is more dangerous than you think', Foreign Policy, (17 September 2012), available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/17/ dangerous_waters.
5. J. Michael Cole, 'China and Japan turn the screw over island dispute', China Brief 12(18), (21 September 2012), p. 3.
6. 'Protests should not turn to the dark side', Global Times, (18 September 2012), available at: http://www. globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/733745/733745.aspx.
7. On the media's role, see: Jianwei Wang, 'Chinese media and foreign policy', Journal of Contemporary China 23(86), (2014).
8. I develop this framework in James Reilly, Strong Society, Smart State: The Rise of Public Opinion in China's Japan Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 2012).
9. Alan P. Liu, Mass Politics in the People's Republic: State and Society in Contemporary China (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996), p. 3.
10. Peter Hays Gries, China's New Nationalism: Pride, Politics, and Diplomacy (Berkeley, CA: California University Press, 2004), pp. 13-29.
11. Yufan Hao and Lin Su, eds, China's Foreign Policy Making: Societal Force and Chinese American Policy (London: Ashgate Publishers, 2005), pp. 8-10.
12. See also Hongyi Lai, The Domestic Sources of China's Foreign Policy (Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2010)
13. Hongyi Lai and Su-Jeong Kang, 'Domestic bureaucratic politics and Chinese foreign policy', Journal of Contemporary China 23(86), (2014).
14. Joseph Fewsmith and Stanley Rosen, 'The domestic context of Chinese foreign policy: does "public opinion" matter?', in David M. Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2001), pp. 151-190.
15. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'Democratization and the danger of war', International Security 20 (1), (1995), p. 7.
16. Stephen Van Evera, 'Hypotheses on nationalism and war', International Security 18(4), (1994), p. 33.
17. Susan L. Shirk, China: The Fragile Superpower (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 7-12.
18. Edward Friedman, 'Preventing war between China and Japan', in Edward Friedman and Barrett L. McCormick, eds, What if China Doesn't Democratize? Implications for War and Peace (Armonk, NY: East Gate, 2000), p. 99.
19. Joseph S. Nye, 'Japan's nationalism is a sign of weakness', Financial Times, (27 November 2012), available at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c6b307ae-3890-11e2-981c-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2DYSrP0DY.
20. Sydney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements and Contentious Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 142.
21. Guillermo O'Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), pp. 2-15.
22. Jessica Chen Weiss, 'Authoritarian signaling, mass audiences and nationalist protest in China', International Organization 67(1), (2013), pp. 1-35.
23. Robert D. Putnam, 'Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games', International Organization 42(3), (1988), pp. 427-460.
24. Lu Yi, Zhongri xianghu lijie haiyou douyuan? Guanyu liangguo minzhong xianghu renshi de bijiao yanjiu [How Far Away is Mutual Understanding between China and Japan? A Comparative Study on the Mutual Perceptions between the Two Peoples] (Beijing: Shijie zhishi chubanshe, 2006), p. 189
25. Huan Tian, ed., Zhanhou zhongri guanxi wenxianji [Documents on Postwar Sino-Japanese Relations], vol. 2 (Beijing: Zhongguo Shehui Kexue, 1997), pp. 542, 556.
26. Jessica Chen Weiss, Powerful Patriots: Nationalism, Diplomacy, and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Foreign Protest, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, San Diego, 2008, p. 52.
27. Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989), pp. 7, 67.
28. Gordon H. Chang, 'A report on student protests at Beijing University', Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars 18, (July-September 1986), pp. 29-31.
29. 'Editorial condemns beating, smashing and looting', BBC Monitoring Service: Asia-Pacific, (21 October 1985).
30. Weiss, Powerful Patriots, p. 57.
31. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, pp. 69-70.
32. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, pp. 69-70.
33. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, pp. 69-70.
34. Weiss, Powerful Patriots, p. 61.
35. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, p. 75.
36. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, p. 75.
37. Tian, Documents on Postwar Sino-Japanese Relations, p. 545.
38. Arif Dirlik, '"Past experience, if not forgotten, is a guide to the future"; or what is in a text? The politics of history in Sino-Japanese relations', Boundary 2 18(3), (1991), p. 41.
39. Tian, Documents on Postwar Sino-Japanese Relations, p. 545.
40. Yinan He, The Search for Reconciliation: Sino-Japanese and German Polish Relations since World War II (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), p. 230.
41. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, p. 178.
42. I use the Chinese term 'Diaoyu' for simplicity's sake, since I focus on Chinese policy. This does not suggest a preference for one country's claim.
43. Linus Hagström, 'Quiet power: Japan's China policy in regard to the Pinnacle Islands', The Pacific Review 18(2), (2005), pp. 159-188.
44. Zhang Tasheng, 'Guanyu 21 shiji zhongri changqi youhao hezuo guanxi de jidian sikao' ['Several thoughts regarding long term cooperation and friendly cooperation in China-Japan relations in the 21st century'], in Chen Feng, ed., 21 shiji de zhongguo yu riben [China and Japan in the 21st Century] (Beijing: Shijie zhishi chubanshe, 2006), p. 34.
45. Cited in Erica Strecker Downs and Phillip C. Saunders, 'Legitimacy and the limits of nationalism: China and the Diaoyu Islands', International Security 23(3), (Winter 1998-1999), p. 134.
46. Youngshik D. Bong, Flashpoints at Sea? Legitimization Strategy and East Asian Island Disputes, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 2002, p. 223.
47. Youngshik D. Bong, Flashpoints at Sea? Legitimization Strategy and East Asian Island Disputes, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 2002, p. 223.
48. Chien-peng Chung, 'The Diaoyu/Tiaoyutai/Senkaku Islands dispute: domestic politics and the limits of diplomacy', American Asian Review 16(3), (1998), p. 152.
49. Downs and Saunders, 'Legitimacy and the limits of nationalism', p. 117.
50. Chung, 'The Diaoyu/Tiaoyutai/Senkaku Islands dispute', p. 152.
51. Thomas J. Christensen, 'China, the US-Japan alliance, and the security dilemma in East Asia', International Security 23(4), (1999), p. 54.
52. Feng Jinhua, 'Zhongguo dalu shouci minjian baodiao xingdong qiuyuanxin' ['A request for support for mainland China's first social action protecting the Diaoyu Islands'], originally available at: http://www.1931918.org/ bbs/dispbbs.asp?boardID = 220&ID = 1063 (no longer accessible); and interviews with activists in Beijing and Shanghai in 2007.
53. The closest the group came was on 14 January 2004. See: 'Chinese fishing boats attacked near Diaoyu Islands', Xinhua, (15 January 2004), available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2004-01/16/content_ 299387.htm.
54. Interview, Beijing, 12 November 2008.
55. 'Waijiaobu fubuzhang Zhang Yesui 24 xiawu jiji yuejian riben dashiguan daibiao' ['Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui urgently summoned Japanese embassy representative on the afternoon of 24 March'], Renmin Ribao [People's Daily], (26 March 2004).
56. 'Japanese flags burn in Chinese capital', South China Morning Post, (26 March 2004).
57. Yuezhi Zhao, Communication in China: Political Economy, Power, and Conflict (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2008), p. 31, n. 42.
58. 'Japan deported Chinese protesters under political pressure', Japan Economic Newswire, (1 April 2004).
59. Irene Wang and Alice Yan, 'Diaoyu Islands activists celebrated as "heroes" in Beijing', South China Morning Post, (29 March 2004).
60. Several hundred supporters were waiting at the Shanghai airport when the activists were brought back from Japan; however they were hustled immediately into government cars upon deplaning and taken to police headquarters for questioning. Interview with Chinese activist, Shanghai, 2 July 2007.
61. Interview, Shanghai, 2 July 2007.
62. 'Beiri feifa kouliude 7 ming zhongguo gongmin anxuan huilai' ['Seven Chinese activists who were illegally detained by Japan return home'], Renmin Ribao [People's Daily], (27 March 2004).
63. 'China restates Senkakus claim, but ready to talk with Japan', Japan Economic Newswire, (30 March 2004).
64. 'Japan bans political group from sailing for disputed islands', Kyodo News Service, (25 March 2004)
65. Anthony Faiola, 'Isles become focus for old antagonisms', Washington Post, (27 March 2004).
66. Nailene Chou Wiest, 'Souring Sino-Japanese ties spread to business', South China Morning Post, (6 April 2004).
67. Liu Xiaobiao, quoted in David Fang, 'Diaoyu activist pushes boundaries of protest', South China Morning Post, (13 April 2004).
68. See: 'Diaoyu activists are patriots; China must protect them', Ming Pao, (25 March 2004)
69. Agnes Cheung, 'H.K. protesters urge tougher Chinese stance on isle dispute', Japan Economic Newswire, (25 March 2004).
70. 'Parliament panel urges prevention of illegal landing on Senkaku Isles', Kyodo News Service, (30 March 2004).
71. 'Japan has no right to claim Diaoyu Islands', China Daily, (2 April 2004).
72. 'Diaoyu renshi Ping Jinhua deng xiang rizhuhua dashi dijiao qianzeshu' ['Diaoyu activist Feng Jinhua and others submit a demand note to the Japanese embassy in Beijing'], Xinjing Bao, (24 April 2004).
73. 'PRC, HK media on Diaoyu Islands situation', China FBIS Report, (20 March 2005).
74. Zhang Tasheng, 'Several thoughts regarding long term cooperation and friendly cooperation in China-Japan relations in the 21st century', p. 32.
75. For a detailed review, including survey data showing an improvement in public opinion toward Japan, see: James Reilly, 'Remember history, not hatred: collective remembrance of China's war of resistance to Japan', Modern Asian Studies 45(2), (March 2011), pp. 463-490.
76. Linus Hagström, '"Power shift" in East Asia? A critical reappraisal of narratives on the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands incident in 2010', Chinese Journal of International Politics 5(3), (2012), pp. 267-297.
77. 'Tokyo to buy disputed islands, says Governor Ishihara', BBC News, (17 April 2012), available at: http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17747934.
78. Gavan McCormack, 'Troubled seas: Japan's Pacific and East China Sea domains (and claims)', The Asia-Pacific Journal 36(4), (3 September 2012).
79. Han-Yi Shaw, 'The inconvenient truth behind the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands', available at: http://kristof.blogs. nytimes.com/2012/09/19/the-inconvenient-truth-behind-the-diaoyusenkakuislands/?smid = tw-share.
80. Gavan McCormack, 'Troubled seas: Japan's Pacific and East China Sea domains (and claims)', The Asia-Pacific Journal 36(4), (3 September 2012).
81. Gavan McCormack, 'Troubled seas: Japan's Pacific and East China Sea domains (and claims)', The Asia-Pacific Journal 36(4), (3 September 2012).
82. Several Chinese newspapers distorted the images to avoid showing the Taiwanese flag, though the Global Times printed the unaltered image on its front page. David Bandurski, 'The flag that launched 1,000 headaches', China Media Project, (16 August 2012), available at: http://cmp.hku.hk/2012/08/16/26013/.
83. Julian Ryall and Malcolm Moore, 'Anti-Japan protests erupt in China following island demonstration', The Telegraph, (19 August 2012).
84. For images, see: 'Jujiao diaoyudao baozhi touban xiankouhao biaoti' ['Focusing on the Diaoyu Islands, many newspaper carry slogans as front page headlines'], Sohu Media, (11 September 2012), available at: http:// media.sohu.com/20120911/n352844601.shtml.2012-9-11.
85. Guangzhou sheqing minyi yanjiu zhongxin [Guangzhou Public Opinion Research Center], Minzhong dui diaoyudao wequan yizhi jianding [The Public's Firm Determination to Protect the Sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands], (14 September 2012), available at: http://news.21cn.com/domestic/shiyong/2012/09/14/12990366.shtml.
86. Cai Shangwei and Zhong Qin, 'The Chinese government's public opinion guidance over the "Diaoyu Islands nationalization" incident'.
87. 'Riben zhengfu bixu zhengshi zhongguo minjian husheng' ['Japanese government must directly face the voice of the Chinese people'], Dakung Pao, (18 September 2012), available at: http://www.takungpao.com/paper/ content/2012-09/25/content_1157935.htm.
88. Li, 'Papers go ballistic over Diaoyu dispute with Japan'.
89. Jane Perlez, 'China alters its strategy in diplomatic crisis with Japan', New York Times, (28 September 2012).
90. Translated and posted by China Digital Times, (September 2012), available at: http://chinadigitaltimes.net/ 2012/09/ming-pao-rules-for-anti-japan-protests/.
91. All points cited in Perlez, 'China alters its strategy in diplomatic crisis with Japan'.
92. 'Chinese ships leave disputed waters near Diaoyu Islands', South China Morning Post, (14 September 2012), available at: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1036502/six-mainland-ships-sail-island-waters-says-japanscoast-guard.
93. Didi Tang, 'Beijing demonstrators damage US ambassador's car', Associated Press, (18 September 2012), available at: http://news.yahoo.com/beijing-demonstrators-damage-us-ambassadors-car-012025364.html.
94. Amy Qin and Edward Wong, 'Smashed skull serves as grim symbol of seething patriotism', New York Times, (10 October 2012), available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/world/asia/xian-beating-becomes-symbol-ofnationalism-gone-awry.html?_r = 0.
95. Xie Yuhang, 'Meiti fansi xian fanri youxing, shimin he jingcha shangxian zhinen' ['Media reflect on the anti-Japan protests in Xi'an: tender sides of citizens and police come to the fore'], Zhongguo qingnian bao [China Youth News], (12 October 2012), available at: http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2012/10-12/4243309.shtml.
96. William Wan, 'Chinese government both encourages and reins in anti-Japan protests, analysts say', Washington Post, (17 September 2012), available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinese-governmentboth-encourages-and-reins-in-anti-japan-protests-analysts-say/2012/09/17/53144ff0-00d8-11e2-b260-32f4a8db9b7e_story.html.
97. 'Shi anjianju renzhen chuanda shangji wenjian jingshen, qieshi weihuhao dangqian shehui anquan wending gongzuo' ['City bureau of work administration earnestly promotes the spirit of the higher-levels' work document on thoroughly protecting current social safety and stability'], (18 September 2012), available at: http://www.xasafety. gov.cn/newsshow.asp?cid = 35&iid = 2403.
98. 'Shi anjianju renzhen chuanda shangji wenjian jingshen, qieshi weihuhao dangqian shehui anquan wending gongzuo' ['City bureau of work administration earnestly promotes the spirit of the higher-levels' work document on thoroughly protecting current social safety and stability'], (18 September 2012), available at: http://www.xasafety. gov.cn/newsshow.asp?cid = 35&iid = 2403.
99. Posted at: http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/09/sensitive-words-anti-japan-protests-2/, (19 September 2012).
100. 'China tells citizens not to hold anti-Japan protests', Mainichi News, (19 September 2012), available at: http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120919p2g00m0dm067000c.html.
101. 'Protests should not turn to the dark side', Global Times.
102. 'Han Han: My feelings about the recent anti-Japan protests', South China Morning Post, (19 September 2012), available at: http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1039986/han-han-my-feelings-about-recent-antijapan-protests.
103. Nozomu Hayashi, 'Chinese intellectuals call for rational Japan-China ties', Asahi Shinbum, (9 October 2012), available at: http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/china/AJ201210090077.
104. On the 'New Thinking' debate, see: Peter Hays Gries, 'China's "new thinking" on Japan', The China Quarterly 184, (2005), pp. 831-850.
105. James Reilly, 'China's unilateral sanctions', The Washington Quarterly 35(4), (Fall 2012), pp. 121-133.
106. On this campaign, see: Shen Tao, Shilun dangdai zhongguo wangluo minzuzhuyi jiqi dui zhongri guanxi de yingxiang: yi aiguozhe tongmengwang wei li [Contemporary Chinese Internet Nationalism and its Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations: A Case Study of the 'Patriot Alliance'], unpublished M.A. thesis, Beijing University, June 2006.
107. For one example, see: Zhang Xilei 'Hangzhou maichang jujue mai richan shouji' ['Hangzhou market refuses to sell Japanese cell phones'], Hangzhou Wanbao, (1 April 2005).
108. 'Dizhi rihuo jiaodong dongya shushinian' ['Boycott Japanese goods, agitate East Asia for a decade'], Renmin Wang, (18 September 2012), available at: http://news.163.com/12/0918/15/8BMNF9GP00014JB6.html.
109. 'Chinese philanthropist replaces damaged Japan-made cars', Caijing, (11 October 2012), available at: http:// english.caijing.com.cn/2012-10-11/112182972.html.
110. See: http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/free/1/2768249.shtml.
111. 'Congwo zuoqi dizhi rihuo aiwo zhonghua' ['Boycott Japanese goods, love our China, it begins with me'], available at: http://forum.home.news.cn/thread/103614758/1.html.
112. See: http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/free/1/2768249.shtml.
113. Gao Mei, '"Dizhi rihuo" bing bushi lixing de zuofa' ['"Boycott Japanese goods" is definitely not a rational action'], Xinjingbao [New Beijing News], (14 September 2012), available at: http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2012/ 0914/c1004-19005598.html
114. We Zhimin, 'Bu zhantong dizhi rihuo' ['Opposing the boycott of Japanese goods'], Global Times, (26 September 2012), available at: http://mil.huanqiu.com/paper/2012-09/3149705.html.
115. 'Boycott Japanese goods, agitate East Asia for a decade', Renmin Wang.
116. 'Dizhi rihuo yidan mangmu rongyi zishang' ['Boycott Japanese goods-one day of blindness and it's easy to injure oneself'], Global Times, (22 August 2012), available at: http://money.163.com/12/0822/14/ 89H3QJ4A00253B0H.html.
117. Wang Chenyan, 'Japan anniversary events postponed', China Daily, (24 September 2012), available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-09/24/content_15776399.htm.
118. Jin Baisong, 'Consider sanctions on Japan', China Daily, (17 September 2012), available at: http://www. chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-09/17/content_15761435.htm.
119. 'China tells citizens not to hold anti-Japan protests', Mainichi News.
120. 'China tightens inspections on Japanese imports', Daily Yomuri, (22 September 2012), available at: http:// www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120921004211.htm.
121. 'Japanese businesses booted from major China trade fair', The Japan Times, (27 September 2012).
122. Phred Dvorak, Atsuko Fukase and Dinny Mcmahon, 'China banks pull out of meetings in Japan', Wall Street Journal, (2 October 2012).
123. Cole, 'China and Japan turn the screw over island dispute'.
124. 'Island standoff hits Japan business', Associated Press, (9 October 2012), available at: http://bigstory.ap.org/ article/news-summary-island-standoff-hits-japan-business.
125. Kwan Weng, 'Japan car giants "to halve China output"', The Straits Times, (9 October 2012).
126. 'Toyota eyes drastic cuts in China production', Japan Times, (5 October 2012).
127. 'Japan's investment in China down 32%', Kyodo, (21 November 2012).
128. 'Island standoff hits Japan business', Associated Press.
129. Keiko Yoshioka, 'China's economy could lose big-time if Japan firms suffer from isles row', Asahi Shinbum, (25 September 2012), available at: http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/china/AJ201209250103.
130. Alastair Iain Johnston, 'How new and assertive is China's new assertiveness?', International Security 37(4), (2013), pp. 7-48
131. Suisheng Zhao, 'Foreign policy implications of Chinese nationalism revisited: the strident turn', Journal of Contemporary China 22(82), (2013), pp. 535-553.