Pattern-oriented parameterization of general models for ecological application: Towards realistic evaluations of management approaches

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 275, Issue , 2014, Pages 78-88

  Jakoby, Oliver ^a,b   Grimm, Volker ^a,c,d   Frank, Karin ^a,d,e  

^a HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^b SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

^c UNIVERSITY OF POTSDAM   (Germany)

^d GERMAN CENTRE FOR INTEGRATIVE BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH IDIV HALLE JENA LEIPZIG   (Germany)

^e UNIVERSITY OF OSNABRÜCK   (Germany)

Author keywords

Constant vs. opportunistic rangeland management; Inverse modeling; Pattern oriented modeling (POM); Semi arid rangeland model

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; DECISION MAKING; ECOLOGY; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; INVERSE PROBLEMS; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS;

INVERSE MODELING; PARAMETER COMBINATION; PARAMETERIZATION METHOD; PARAMETERIZATION STRATEGIES; PATTERN-ORIENTED MODELING; RANGELAND MANAGEMENT; REALISTIC EVALUATIONS; SEMI-ARID RANGELAND;

PARAMETERIZATION;

BIOMASS; DECISION MAKING; GRAZING; LAND MANAGEMENT; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; RANGELAND; SEMIARID REGION; VEGETATION;

EID: 84892452390     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.009     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Abel N.O.J., Blaikie P.M. Land degradation, stocking rates and conservation policies in the communal rangelands of Botswana and Zimbabwe. Land Degradation and Rehabilitation 1989, 1(2):101-123.
2. Arnold S., Attinger S., Frank K., Hildebrandt A. Uncertainty in parameterisation and model structure affect simulation results in coupled ecohydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2009, 13(10):1789-1807.
3. Bai Y., Wu J., Xing Q., Pan Q., Huang J., Yang D., Han X. Primary production and rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Mongolia Plateau. Ecology 2008, 89(8):2140-2153.
4. Beukes P.C., Cowling R.M., Higgins S.I. An ecological economic simulation model of a non-selective grazing system in the Nama Karoo, South Africa. Ecological Economics 2002, 42(1-2):221-242.
5. Campbell B.M., Gordon I.J., Luckert M.K., Petheram L., Vetter S. In search of optimal stocking regimes in semi-arid grazing lands: one size does not fit all. Ecological Economics 2006, 60(1):75-85.
6. Ellis J.E., Swift D.M. Stability of African pastoral ecosystems: alternate paradigms and implications for development. Journal of Range Management 1988, 41(6):450-459.
7. Fuhlendorf S.D., Briske D.D., Smeins F.E. Herbaceous vegetation change in variable rangeland environments: the relative contribution of grazing and climatic variability. Applied Vegetation Science 2001, 4(2):177-188.
8. Fynn R.W.S., O'Connor T.G. Effect of stocking rate and rainfall on rangeland dynamics and cattle performance in a semi-arid savanna, South Africa. Journal of Applied Ecology 2000, 37(3):491-507.
9. Gilbert N. Agent-Based Models 2007, Sage Publications, London.
10. Gillson L., Hoffman M.T. Rangeland ecology in a changing world. Science 2007, 315(5808):53-54.
11. Grimm V., Railsback S.F. Pattern-oriented modelling: a multiscope for predictive systems ecology. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London B 2012, 367:298-310.
12. Grimm V., Revilla E., Berger U., Jeltsch F., Mooij W.M., Railsback S.F., Thulke H.H., Weiner J., Wiegand T., DeAngelis D.L. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science 2005, 310(5750):987-991.
13. Grimm V., Berger U., Bastiansen F., Eliassen S., Ginot V., Giske J., Goss-Custard J., Grand T., Heinz S.K., Huse G., Huth A., Jepsen J.U., Jorgensen C., Mooij W.M., Müller B., Pe'er G., Piou C., Railsback S.F., Robbins A.M., Robbins M.M., Rossmanith E., Rüger N., Strand E., Souissi S., Stillman R.A., Vabo R., Visser U., DeAngelis D.L. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecological Modelling 2006, 198(1-2):115-126.
14. Grimm V., Berger U., DeAngelis D.L., Polhill G., Giske J., Railsback S.F. The ODD protocol: a review and first update. Ecological Modelling 2010, 221(23):2760-2768.
15. Harrison Y.A., Shackleton C. Resilience of South African communal grazing lands after the removal of high grazing pressure. Land Degradation and Development 1999, 10(3):225-239.
16. Hartig F., Calabrese J.M., Reineking B., Wiegand T., Huth A. Statistical inference for stochastic simulation models - theory and application. Ecology Letters 2011, 14(8):816-827.
17. Heine B.-O., Meyer M., Strangfeld O. Das Konzept der stilisierten Fakten zur Messung und Bewertung wissenschaftlichen Fortschritts. Die Betriebswirtschaft 2007, 67(5):583-601.
18. Helldén U. Desertification: time for an assessment?. Ambio 1991, 20(8):372-383.
19. Higgins S.I., Kantelhardt J., Scheiter S., Börner J. Sustainable management of extensively managed savanna rangelands. Ecological Economics 2007, 62(1):102-114.
20. Holechek J.L. An approach for setting the stocking rate. Rangelands 1988, 10(1):10-14.
21. Holmgren M., Stapp P., Dickman C.R., Gracia C., Graham S., Gutiérrez J.R., Hice C., Jaksic F., Kelt D.A., Letnic M., Lima M., López B.C., Meserve P.L., Milstead W.B., Polis G.A., Previtali M.A., Richter M., Sabaté S., Squeo F.A. Extreme climatic events shape arid and semiarid ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2006, 4(2):87-95.
22. Ibanez J., Martinez J., Schnabel S. Desertification due to overgrazing in a dynamic commercial livestock-grass-soil system. Ecological Modelling 2007, 205(3-4):277-288.
23. Jakoby O. Risk Management in Semi-Arid Rangelands: Modelling Adaptation to Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneities 2010, 126. (Ph.D. thesis), University of Osnabrück.
24. Jakoby O., Quaas M.F., Müller B., Baumgärtner S., Frank K. How do individual farmers' objectives influence their evaluation of rangeland management strategies under a variable climate?. Journal of Applied Ecology 2014, in press. 10.1111/1365-2664.12216.
25. Janssen M.A., Anderies J.M., Walker B.H. Robust strategies for managing rangelands with multiple stable attractors. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 2004, 47(1):140-162.
26. Kaldor N. Capital accumulation and economic growth. The Theory of Capital 1961, 177-222. MacMillan, London. F.A. Lutz, D.C. Hague (Eds.).
27. Knapp K., Beier A., Briske C., Classen D.D., Luo A.T., Reichstein Y., Smith M., Smith M.D., Bell S.D., Fay J.E., Heisler P.A., Leavitt J.L., Sherry S.W., Smith R., Weng B.E. Consequences of more extreme precipitation regimes for terrestrial ecosystems. BioScience 2008, 58(9):811-821.
28. Kooijman S.A.L.M. Dynamic Energy Budget Theory for Metabolic Organisation 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
29. Kramer-Schadt S., Revilla E., Wiegand T., Grimm V. Patterns for parameters in simulation models. Ecological Modelling 2007, 204(3-4):553-556.
30. Laca E.A. New approaches and tools for grazing management. Rangeland Ecology and Management 2009, 62(5):407-417.
31. Law R. Optimal life histories under age-specific predation. American Naturalist 1979, 114(3):399-417.
32. Le Houérou H.N., Bingham R.L., Skerbek W. Relationship between the variability of primary production and the variability of annual precipitation in world arid lands. Journal of Arid Environments 1988, 15:1-18.
33. Linstädter A., Baumann G. Abiotic and biotic recovery pathways of arid rangelands: lessons from the High Atlas Mountains, Morocco. CATENA 2013, 103:3-15.
34. Martin B.T., Jager T., Nisbet R.M., Preuss T.G., Grimm V. Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of Dynamic Energy Budget theory. American Naturalist 2013, 181(4):506-519.
35. Martínez I., Wiegand T., Camarero J.J., Batllori E., Gutiérrez E. Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree-line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models. American Naturalist 2011, 177(5):E136-E152.
36. McAllister R.R.J., Smith D.M.S., Stokes C.J., Walsh F.J. Patterns of accessing variable resources across time and space: desert plants, animals and people. Journal of Arid Environments 2009, 73(3):338-346.
37. McLean A., Tisdale E.W. Recovery rate of depleted range sites under protection from grazing. Journal of Range Management 1972, 25(3):178-184.
38. Muldavin E., Moore D., Collins S., Wetherill K., Lightfoot D. Aboveground net primary production dynamics in a northern Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem. Oecologia 2008, 155(1):123-132.
39. Müller B., Frank K., Wissel C. Relevance of rest periods in non-equilibrium rangeland systems - a modelling analysis. Agricultural Systems 2007, 92(1-3):295-317.
40. Müller B., Linstädter A., Frank K., Bollig M., Wissel C. Learning from local knowledge: modeling the pastoral-nomadic range management of the Himba, Namibia. Ecological Applications 2007, 17(7):1857-1875.
41. Noy-Meir I. Grazing and production in seasonal pastures: analysis of a simple model. Journal of Applied Ecology 1978, 15:809-835.
42. Noy-Meir I. Spatial effects in modelling of arid ecosystems. Arid Land Ecosystems 1981, 411-432. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. D.W. Goodall, R.A. Perry (Eds.).
43. O'Connor T.G., Haines L.M., Snyman H.A. Influence of precipitation and species composition on phytomass of a semi-arid African grassland. Journal of Ecology 2001, 89(5):850-860.
44. Perrings C. Stress, shock and the sustainability of resource use in semi-arid environments. Annals of Regional Science 1994, 28(1):31-53.
45. Piou C., Berger U., Grimm V. Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented framework. Ecological Modelling 2009, 220(17):1957-1967.
46. Rossmanith E., Blaum N., Grimm V., Jeltsch F. Pattern-oriented modelling for estimating unknown pre-breeding survival rates: the case of the lesser spotted woodpecker (Picoides minor). Biological Conservation 2007, 135(4):555-564.
47. Ruppert J.C., Holm A.M., Miehe S., Muldavin E., Snyman H.A., Wesche K., Linstädter A. Meta-analysis of rain-use efficiency confirms indicative value for degradation and supports non-linear response along precipitation gradients in drylands. Journal of Vegetation Science 2012, 23(6):1035-1050.
48. Sensitivity Analysis 2000, Wiley, Chichester, West Sussex, England. A. Saltelli, K. Chan, E.M. Scott (Eds.).
49. Sandford S., Scoones I. Opportunistic and conservative pastoral strategies: some economic arguments. Ecological Economics 2006, 58(1):1-16.
50. Schmolke A., Thorbek P., DeAngelis D.L., Grimm V. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 2010, 25(8):479-486.
51. Schulte A. Weideökologie des Kaokolandes: Struktur und Dynamik einer Mopane-Savanne unter pastoralnomadischer Nutzung 2002, 327. (Ph.D. thesis), University of Cologne.
52. Snyman H.A., Fouché H.J. Estimating seasonal herbage production of a semi-arid grassland based on veld condition, rainfall, and evapotranspiration. African Journal of Range and Forage Science 1993, 10(1):21-24.
53. Stoddart L.A. Plant morphology and physiology in relation to range management. Rangeland Management 1975, 104-145. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York. L.A. Stoddart (Ed.).
54. Tainton N.M. Veld Management in South Africa 1999, University of Natal Press, Pietermaritzburg.
55. Tietjen B., Jeltsch F. Semi-arid grazing systems and climate change: a survey of present modelling potential and future needs. Journal of Applied Ecology 2007, 44(2):425-434.
56. Trlica M.J. Grass growth and response to grazing. Natural Resources Series, Range. No. 6.108, 1-5 2006.
57. Verdoodt A., Mureithi S.M., Van Ranst E. Impacts of management and enclosure age on recovery of the herbaceous rangeland vegetation in semi-arid Kenya. Journal of Arid Environments 2010, 74(9):1066-1073.
58. Vetter S. Rangelands at equilibrium and non-equilibrium: recent developments in the debate. Journal of Arid Environments 2005, 62(2):321-341.
59. Walker B.H., Ludwig D., Holling C.S., Peterman R.M. Stability of semi-arid savanna grazing systems. Journal of Ecology 1981, 69(2):473-498.
60. Wessels K.J., Prince S.D., Carroll M., Malherbe J. Relevance of rangeland degradation in semiarid northeastern South Africa to the nonequilibrium theory. Ecological Applications 2007, 17(3):815-827.
61. Wiegand T., Jeltsch F., Hanski I., Grimm V. Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application. Oikos 2003, 100(2):209-222.
62. Wiegand T., Knauer F., Kaczensky P., Naves J. Expansion of brown bears (Ursus arctos) into the eastern Alps: a spatially explicit population model. Biodiversity and Conservation 2004, 13(1):79-114.
63. Wolfson M.M., Tainton N.M. The morphology and physiology of the major forage plants. Veld Management in South Africa 1999, 54-79. University of Natal Press, Pietermaritzburg. N.M. Tainton (Ed.).