Pest species distribution modelling: Origins and lessons from history

Biological Invasions

Volumn 16, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 239-256

  Sutherst, Robert W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

Biodiversity; Biosecurity; Climate change; Extrapolation; Geographical distribution; Non equilibrium

Indexed keywords

AUTOMATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; DOMINANCE; INTERPOLATION; MAPPING; NICHE; PEST SPECIES; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION MODELING; REGIONAL PATTERN; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84892443030     PISSN: 13873547     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10530-013-0523-y     Document Type: Article

References (156)

1. Anderson RP, Lew D (2003) Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol Model 162: 211-232.
2. Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
3. Atkinson WD, Shorrocks B (1984) Aggregation of larval diptera over discrete and ephemeral breeding sites: the implications for coexistence. Am Nat 124: 336-351.
4. Austin MP (1987) Models for the analysis of species' response to environmental gradients. Vegetatio 69: 35-45.
5. Austin MP, Nicholls AO, Doherty MD et al (1994) Determining species response functions to an environmental gradient by means of a β-function. J Veg Sci 5: 215-228.
6. Ayala FJ (1969) Experimental invalidation of principle of competitive exclusion. Nature 224: 1076-1079.
7. Baker CRB (1991) The validation and use of a life-cycle simulation model for risk assessment of insect pests. Bull OEPP/EPPO 21: 615-622.
8. Baker RHA, Sansford CE, Jarvis CH et al (2000) The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82: 57-71.
9. Ball J (1910) Climatological diagrams. Cairo Sci J 4: 280-281.
10. Ball ED (1917) Distribution of alfalfa weevil in Utah. Bien Rpt State Hort Com Utah 1914-1916. 144-145.
11. Bodenheimer FS (1938) Problems of animal ecology. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
12. Bodenheimer FS (1951) Citrus entomology. W. Junk, The Hague.
13. Bodenheimer FS (1958) Animal ecology today. Monogr Biol 6: 1-276.
14. Bontemps S, Defourny P, van Bogaert E (2010) GLOBCOVER 2009. Product description and validation report. European Space Agency and Universite Catholique de Louvain p 30. http://due. esrin. esa. int/globcover/. Accessed 14 Dec 2013.
15. Booth TH, Stein JA, Nix HA et al (1989) Mapping regions climatically suitable for particular species: an example using Africa. For Ecol Manag 28: 19-31.
16. Booth TH, Jovanovic T, Old KM et al (2000a) Climatic mapping to identify high-risk areas for Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum leaf blight on eucalypts in mainland South East Asia and around the world. Environ Pollut 108: 365-372.
17. Booth TH, Old KM, Jovanovic T (2000b) A preliminary assessment of high risk areas for Puccinia psidii (Eucalyptus rust) in the Neotropics and Australia. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82: 295-301.
18. Bosch vdR, Messenger PS (1973) Biological control. Intext Press, New York.
19. Bryant SR, Thomas CD, Bale JS (2002) The influence of thermal ecology on the distribution of three nymphalid butterflies. J Appl Ecol 39: 43-55.
20. Busby JR (1991) BIOCLIM-a bioclimate analysis and prediction system. Plant Prot Q 6: 8-9.
21. Carter RN, Prince SD (1981) Epidemic models used to explain biogeographical distribution limits. Nature 293: 644-645.
22. Carter RN, Prince SD (1988) Distribution limits from a demographic viewpoint. In: Davy AJ, Hutchings MJ, Watkinson AR (eds) Plant population ecology. Blackwell, Oxford.
23. Coakley SM, McDaniel LR (1988) Quantifying how climatic factors affect variation in plant disease severity: a general method using a new way to analyze meteorological data. Clim Chang 12: 57-75.
24. Coakley SM, Line RF, McDaniel LR (1988) Predicting stripe rust severity on winter wheat using an improved method for analyzing meteorological and rust data. Phytopathology 78: 543-550.
25. Cook WC (1923) Studies in the physical ecology of the Noctuidae. Minnesota Agric Expt Sta Univ Farm St Paul Minn Tech Bull 12: 38.
26. Cook WC (1924) The distribution of the pale western cutworm, Porosagrotis orthogonia Morr.: a study in physical ecology. Ecology 5: 60-69.
27. Cook WC (1925) The distribution of the alfalfa weevil (Phytonomus posticus Gyll.) a study in physical ecology. J Agric Res 30: 479-491.
28. Cook WC (1929) A bioclimate zonation for studying the economic distribution of injurious insects. Ecology 10: 282-293.
29. Cook WC (1931) Notes on predicting the probable future distribution of introduced insects. Ecology 12: 245-247.
30. Crisp MD, Arroyo MTK, Cook LG et al (2009) Phylogenetic biome conservatism on a global scale. Nature 458: 754-756.
31. Csurhes SM, Kriticos D (1994) Gleditisa triacanthos L. (Caesalpiniaceae), another thorny, exotic fodder tree gone wild. Plant Prot Q 9: 101-105.
32. Davis AJ, Jenkinson LS, Lawton JH et al (1998a) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391: 783-786.
33. Davis AJ, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B et al (1998b) Individualistic species responses invalidate simple physiological models of community dynamics under global environmental change. J Anim Ecol 67: 600-612.
34. Elith J, Graham CH (2009) Do they? How do they? Why do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography 32: 66-77.
35. Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40: 677-697.
36. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
37. Eyre D, Baker RHA, Brunel S et al (2012) Rating and mapping the suitability of the climate for pest risk analysis. EPPO Bull 42: 48-55.
38. Fitt GP (1989) The role of interspecific interactions in the dynamics of tephritid populations. In: Robinson AS, Hooper G (eds) Fruit flies their biology, natural enemies and control. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 281-300.
39. Fitzpatrick EA, Nix HA (1970) The climatic factor in Australian grassland ecology. In: Moore RM (ed) Australian grasslands. Australian National University Press, Sydney, pp 3-26.
40. Franklin J (2009) Mapping species distributions: spatial inferences and prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
41. Gallien L, Munkemuller T, Albert CH et al (2010) Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: where to go from here? Divers Distrib 16: 331-342.
42. Gause GF (1934) Experimental analysis of Vito Volterra's mathematical theory of the struggle for existence. Science 79: 16-17.
43. Grinnell J (1917) The niche-relationships of the California Thrasher. The Auk 34: 427-433.
44. Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8: 993-1009.
45. Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Model 135: 147-186.
46. Gutierrez AP (2000) Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: pests and population dynamics. In: Reddy KR, Hodges HF (eds) Climate change and global crop productivity. CAB International, Wallingford, pp 353-374.
47. Gutierrez AP, Nix HA, Havenstein DE et al (1974) The ecology of Aphis craccivora Koch and subterranean clover stunt virus in south-east Australia. III. A regional perspective of the phenology and migration of the cowpea aphid. J Appl Ecol 11: 21-35.
48. Gutierrez AP, Ponti L, d'Oultremont T et al (2008) Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions. Clim Chang 87: S167-S192.
49. Hall M, Wall R (1995) Myiasis of humans and domestic animals. Adv Parasitol 35: 257-334.
50. Haufe WO, Burgess L (1956) Development of Aedes (Diptera: Culicidae) at Fort Churchill, Manitoba, and prediction of dates of emergence. Ecology 37: 500-519.
51. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL et al (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25: 1965-1978.
52. Hodkinson ID (1999) Species response to global environmental change or why ecophysiological models are important: a reply to Davis et al. J Anim Ecol 68: 1259-1262.
53. Holdridge LR (1947) Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Science 105: 367-368.
54. Hutchinson GE (1957) Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology. Concluding Remark 22: 415-427.
55. Hutchinson MF (1995) Interpolating mean rainfall using thin plate smoothing splines. Int J Geogr Inf Syst 9: 385-403.
56. Kearney M, Porter WP (2004) Mapping the fundamental niche: physiology, climate, and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard. Ecology 85: 3119-3131.
57. Kearney M, Porter W (2009) Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecol Lett 12: 334-350.
58. Kearney MR, Wintle BA, Porter WP (2010) Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change. Conserv Lett 3: 203-213.
59. Keig G, McAlpine JR (1969) Watbal. A computer system for the estimation and analysis of soil moisture regimes from simple climatic data. CSIRO Div L Res 69(9): 1-47 Technical Memorandum.
60. Kingsolver JG (1989) Weather and the population dynamics of insects: integrating physiological and population ecology. Physiol Zool 62: 314-334.
61. Köppen W (1931) Grundiss der Klimakunde. Walter de Gruyter Co., Berlin.
62. Korzukhin MD, Porter SD, Thompson LC et al (2001) Modeling temperature-dependent range limits for the red imported fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Solenopsis invicta) in the United States. Environ Entomol 30: 645-655.
63. Kriticos DJ, Randall PR (2001) A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distributions. In: Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue JG (eds) Weed risk assessment. CSIRO, Melbourne, pp 61-79.
64. Kriticos DJ, Brown JR, Maywald GF et al (2003) SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica. Ecol Model 163: 187-208.
65. Kriticos DJ, Yonow T, McFadyen RE (2005) The potential distribution of Chromolaena odorata (Siam Weed) in relation to climate. Weed Res 45: 246-254.
66. Kriticos DJ, Webber BL, Leriche A, Ota N, Macadam I, Bathols J, Scott JK (2012) CliMond: global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Meth Ecol Evol 3: 53-64.
67. Leemans R (1996) Biodiversity and global change. In: Gaston KJ (ed) Biodiversity: a biology of numbers and difference. Blackwell publishers, pp 367-387.
68. Leibold MA (1995) The niche concept revisited: mechanistic models and community context. Ecology 76: 1371-1382.
69. Lindenmayer DB, Nix HA, McMahon JP et al (1991) The conservation of Leadbeater's possum' Gymnobelideus leadbeateri (McCoy): a case study of the use of bioclimatic modelling. J Biogeogr 18: 371-383.
70. Mack RN, Simberloff B, Lonsdale WM et al (2000) Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol Appl 10: 689-710.
71. Magarey RD, Fowler GA, Borchert DM et al (2007) NAPPFAST: an internet system for the weather-based mapping of plant pathogens. Plant Dis 91: 1-10.
72. Mansfield K (1924) Nachrbl. deut. Pflanzenschutzdienst (Berlin) 4: 45-46.
73. Maywald GF, Sutherst RW (1985) User's guide to CLIMEX: a computer program for comparing climates in ecology. CSIRO Aust Div Entomol Rep 35: 1-29.
74. Maywald GF, Sutherst RW, Zalucki MP (1997) Generic modelling for integrated pest management. In: McDonald AD and McAleer M (eds) Modsim 97, international congress on modelling and simulation proceedings. The modelling and simulation cociety of Australia, University of Tasmania, pp 1115-1116.
75. Maywald GF, Sutherst RW, Zalucki MP (1999) DYMEX professional: modelling natural systems. CD-ROM, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.
76. Maywald GF, Kriticos DJ, Sutherst RW, Bottomley W (2004a) DYMEX V2. Model builder user's guide. Hearne Scientific Software Inc, Melbourne.
77. Maywald GF, Kriticos DJ, Sutherst RW, Bottomley W (2004b) DYMEX V2. Model simulator user's guide. Hearne Scientific Software Inc., Melbourne.
78. Meats A (1989) Bioclimatic potential. In: Robinson AS, Hooper G (eds) World crop pests. Fruit flies their biology, natural enemies and control, Ch. 8. 5. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 241-252.
79. Messenger PS (1959) Bioclimatic studies with insects. Annu Rev Entomol 4: 183-206.
80. Messenger PS (1970) Bioclimatic inputs to biological control and pest management programs. In: Rabb RL, Guthrie FE (eds) Concepts of pest management. State University, Raleigh, NC, pp 84-99.
81. Messenger PS, Flitters NE (1954) Bioclimatic studies of three species of fruit flies in Hawaii. J Econ Entomol 47: 756-765.
82. Murray MD, Nix HA (1987) Southern limits of distribution and abundance of the biting-midge Culicoides brevitarsis Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in south-eastern Australia: an application of the GROWEST model. Aust J Zool 35: 575-585.
83. Neave HM, Norton TW (1991) Integrated management of forest wildlife: comments on new ways to research habitat. In: Lunney D (ed) Conservation of Australia's forest fauna. Royal Zoological Society of NSW, NSW, pp 229-236.
84. New M, Hulme M, Jones PD (2000) Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability. Part 2: development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13: 2217-2238.
85. Nix HA (1981) Simplified simulation models based on specified minimum data sets: the CROPEVAL concept. In: Berg A (ed) Application of remote sensing to agricultural production forecasting. A. A. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 151-169.
86. Nix H (1986) A biogeographic analysis of Australian elapid snakes. In: Longmore R (ed) Atlas of elapid snakes of Australia. Bureau of Flora and Fauna, Canberra, pp 4-15.
87. Nix HA, Fitzpatrick EA (1969) An index of crop water stress related to wheat and grain sorghum yields. Agric Meteorol 6: 321-337.
88. Pardey PG, Beddow JM, Kriticos DJ et al (2013) Right-sizing stem-rust research. Science 340: 147-148.
89. Park T (1948) Experimental studies of interspecies competition I. Competition between populations of flour beetles Tribolium confusum and Tribolium castaneum Herbst. Ecol Monogr 18: 265-308.
90. Park T (1954) Experimental studies of interspecies competition 2. Temperature, humidity, and competition in 2 species of Tribolium. Physiol Zool 27: 177-238.
91. Parmesan C (1996) Climate and species' range. Nature 382: 765-766.
92. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
93. Pearson RG, Dawson TP, Berry PM et al (2002) SPECIES: a spatial evaluation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecol Model 154: 289-300.
94. Peterson AT (2003) Predicting the geography of species' invasions via ecological niche modelling. Q Rev Biol 78: 419-433.
95. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J et al (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416: 626-629.
96. Pheloung PC (1996) Climate. A system to predict the distribution of an organism based on climate preference. Agriculture Western Australia.
97. Porter WP, Budaraju S, Stewart WE et al (2000) Physiology on a landscape scale: applications in ecological theory and conservation practice. Am Zool 40: 1175-1176.
98. Porter WP, Sabo JL, Tracy CR et al (2002) Physiology on a landscape scale: plant-animal interactions. Integr Comp Biol 42: 431-453.
99. Randolph SE (1997) Abiotic and biotic determinants of the seasonal dynamics of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in South Africa. Med Vet Entomol 11: 25-37.
100. Randolph SE (2004) Tick ecology: processes and patterns behind the epidemiological risk posed by ixodid ticks as vectors. Parasitology 129: S37-S65.
101. Randolph SE, Rogers DJ (1997) A generic population model for the African tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus. Parasitology 265-279.
102. Rogers D (1979) Tsetse population dynamics and distribution: a new analytical approach. J Anim Ecol 48: 825-849.
103. Rogers DJ (1995) Remote sensing and the changing distribution of tsetse flies in Africa. In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a changing environment. Academic Press, London, pp 177-193.
104. Rogers DJ (2006) Models for vectors and vector-borne diseases. Adv Parasitol 62(62): 1-35.
105. Rogers DJ, Packer MJ (1993) Vector-borne diseases, models, and global change. Lancet 342: 1282-1284.
106. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE (1986) Distribution and abundance of tsetse flies (Glossina spp.). J Anim Ecol 55: 1007-1025.
107. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE (1991) Mortality rates and population density of tsetse flies correlated with satellite imagery. Nature 351: 739-741.
108. Rogers KJ, Randolph SE (1993) Distribution of tsetse and ticks in Africa: past, present and future. Parasitol Today 9: 266-271.
109. Sanderson ED (1908) The influence of minimum temperatures in limiting the northern distribution of insects. J Econ Entomol 1: 245-262.
110. Schwartz MW (1992) Potential effects of global climate change on the biodiversity of plants. For Chron 68: 462-471.
111. Senaratne KADW, Palmer WA, Sutherst RW (2006) Use of CLIMEX modelling to identify prospective areas for exploration to find new biological control agents for prickly acacia. Aust J Entomol 45: 298-302.
112. Shelford VE (1913) Animal communities in temperate America, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
113. Shelford VE (1931) Some concepts of bio-ecology. Ecology 12: 455-467.
114. Shorrocks B (1975) The distribution and abundance of woodland species of British Drosophila (Diptera: Drosophilidae). J Anim Ecol 44: 857-864.
115. Silvertown J (2004) The ghost of competition past in the phylogeny of island endemic plants. J Ecol 92: 168-173.
116. Slatyer RO (1960) Agricultural climatology of the Katherine area, NT. CSIRO Div L Res Reg Surv 13: 35-39 Technical Paper.
117. Slatyer RO (1968) The use of soil water balance relationships in agroclimatology. UNESCO natural resources research No. 7: agroclimatological method pp 73-87.
118. Southwood TRE (1977) Habitat, the templet for ecological strategies? J Anim Ecol 46: 337-365.
119. Sutherst RW (1990) Impact of climate change on pests and diseases in Australasia. Search 21: 230-232.
120. Sutherst RW (1991) Pest risk analysis and the greenhouse effect. Rev Agric Entomol 79: 1177-1187.
121. Sutherst RW (1996) A hierarchical approach to pest risk analysis under climate change. Global change and terrestrial ecosystems working document No. 25. Impact of climate change on pests, weeds and diseases in Australia. IGBP-GCTE, Brisbane, Australia.
122. Sutherst RW (1998) Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic approaches to impact assessments. Int J Parasitol 28: 935-945.
123. Sutherst RW (2000) Climate change and invasive species: a conceptual framework. In: Mooney HA, Hobbs RJ (eds) Invasive species in a changing world. Island Press, Washington, DC, pp 211-240.
124. Sutherst RW (2001) The vulnerability of animal and human health to parasites under global change. Int J Parasitol 31: 933-948.
125. Sutherst RW (2004) Global change and human vulnerability to vector-born diseases. Clin Microbiol Rev 17: 136-173.
126. Sutherst RW, Bourne AS (2009) Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms. Biol Invasions 11: 1231-1237.
127. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF (1985) A computerised system for matching climates in ecology. Agric Ecosyst Environ 13: 281-300.
128. Sutherst RW, Maywald G (2005) A climate-model of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): implications for invasion of new regions, particularly Oceania. Environ Entomol 34: 317-335.
129. Sutherst RW, Yonow T, Chakraborty S et al (1996) A generic approach to defining impacts of climate change on pests, weeds and diseases in Australasia. In: Bouma WJ, Pearman GI, Manning MR (eds) Greenhouse: coping with climate change. CSIRO, Melbourne, pp 281-307.
130. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Russell BL (2000) Estimating vulnerability under global change: modular modelling of pests. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82: 303-319.
131. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Bourne AS (2007a) Including species-interactions in risk assessments for global change. Glob Change Biol 13: 1843-1859.
132. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Kriticos DJ (2007b) CLIMEX Version 3: Users Guide. Hearne Scientific.
133. Teng PS, Heong KL, Kropff MJ et al (1996) Linked pest-crop models under global change. In: Walker B, Steffen W (eds) Global change and terrestrial ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
134. Thomas D, Cameron A, Green RE et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
135. Thornthwaite CW (1931) The climates of North America according to a new classification. Geogr Rev 21: 633-655.
136. Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38: 55-94.
137. Thuiller W (2003) Biomod-optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob Change Biol 9: 1353-1362.
138. Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R et al (2009) BIOMOD-a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32: 369-373.
139. van der Ploeg RR, Bohm W, Kirkham MB (1999) On the origin of the theory of mineral nutrition of plants and the law of the minimum. Soil Sci Soc Am J 63: 1055-1062.
140. Venette RC, Kriticos DJ, Magarey RD et al (2010) Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement. Bioscience 60: 349-362.
141. Vera MT, Rodriguez R, Segura DF et al (2002) Potential geographical distribution of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae), with emphasis on Argentina and Australia. Environ Entomol 31: 1009-1022.
142. Virdee SR, Hewitt GM (1994) Clines for hybrid dysfunction in a grasshopper hybrid zone. Evolution 48: 392-407.
143. Volterra V (1926) Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically. Nature 118: 558-560.
144. von Walter HB, Leith H (1960) Klimadiagramm-Weltatlas. VEB Gustav Fischer Verlag, Jena.
145. Walker PA, Cocks KD (1991) HABITAT: a procedure for modelling a disjoint environmental envelope for a plant or animal species. Glob Ecol Biogeogr lett 1: 108-118.
146. Walther GR, Post E, Convet P et al (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395.
147. Watts MJ, Worner SP (2008) Comparing ensemble and cascaded neural networks that combine biotic and abiotic variables to predict insect species distribution. Ecol Inform 3: 354-366.
148. Watts MJ, Worner SP (2009) Estimating the risk of insect species invasion: Kohonen self-organising maps versus k-means clustering. Ecol Model 220: 821-829.
149. Webber BL, Yates CJ, Le Maitre DC, Scott JK, Kriticos DJ, Ota N, McNeill A, Le Roux JJ, Midgley GF (2011) Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models. Divers Distrib 17: 978-1000.
150. Williams SE, Bolitho EE, Fox S (2003) Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B Biol Sci 270: 1887-1892.
151. Williams SE, VanDerWal J, Isaac J et al (2010) Distributions, life-history specialization, and phylogeny of the rain forest vertebrates in the Australian Wet Tropics. Ecology 91: 2493.
152. Williamson M (1972) The analysis of biological populations. Edward Arnold, London.
153. Worner SP, Gevrey M (2006) Modelling global insect pest species assemblages to determine risk of invasion. J Appl Ecol 43: 858-867.
154. Xu T, Hutchinson MF (2013) New developments and applications in the ANUCLIM spatial climatic and bioclimatic modelling package. Environ Model Softw 40: 267-279.
155. You L, Wood S, Wood-Sichra U (2006) Generating global crop maps: from census to grid. Selected paper, IAAE (International Association of Agricultural Economists) Annual Conference, Gold Coast, Australia.
156. Zalucki MP, Rochester WA (2004) Spatial and temporal population dynamics of monarchs down-under: lessons for north America. In: Oberhauser K, Solensky M (eds) The monarch butterfly: Biology and conservation. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, pp 219-228.