Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions

Climatic Change

Volumn 87, Issue 1 SUPPL, 2007, Pages

  Gutierrez, Andrew Paul ^a,b   Ponti, Luigi ^a,b   d'Oultremont, Thibaud ^a,b   Ellis, C K ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems CASAS   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL CONTROL AGENT; BIOLOGICAL CONTROLS; BIOLOGICAL INTERACTIONS; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; MEDITERRANEAN FRUIT FLY; MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; SOLAR RADIATION DATA; TRITROPHIC INTERACTIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COTTON; FACSIMILE; FORECASTING; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; PHYSIOLOGICAL MODELS; PLANTS (BOTANY); REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SOLAR ENERGY; SUN;

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION;

ANIMALIA; BACTROCERA OLEAE; CENTAUREA SOLSTITIALIS; CERATITIS CAPITATA; GOSSYPIUM HIRSUTUM; MEDICAGO SATIVA; PECTINOPHORA GOSSYPIELLA; PLANOCOCCUS FICUS; PSEUDOCOCCIDAE; VITACEAE;

EID: 84893692598     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9379-4     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
2. Bartlett BR (1974) Introduction into California USA of cold tolerant biotypes of the mealybug predator Cryptolaemus montrouzieri and laboratory procedures for testing natural enemies for cold hardiness. Environ Entomol 3:553-556
3. Carey JR (1996) The incipient Mediterranean fruit fly population in California: implications for invasion biology. Ecology 77:1690-1697
4. Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke R Jr, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D (2001) Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293:657-660
5. Coakley S, Scherm H, Chakraborty S (1999) Climate change and plant disease management. Annu Rev Phytopathol 37:399-426
6. Daane KM, Malakar-Kuenen R, Guillén M, Bentley WJ, Bianchi M, Gonzalez D (2003) Abiotic and biotic refuges hamper biological control of mealybug pests in California vineyards. In: van Driesch R (ed) Proceedings of the 1st International Symposium on Biological Control of Arthropods. USDA Forest Service, Morgantown, West Virginia, pp 389-398
7. Dalla Marta A, Orlandini S, Sacchetti P, Belcari A (2004) Olea europaea: integration of GIS and simulation modelling to define a map of "dacic attack risk" in Tuscany. Adv Hort Sci 18:168-172
8. Davis AJ, Jenkinson LS, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B, Wood S (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391:783-786
9. De Bach P (1964) Biological control of insect pests and weeds. Chapman and Hall, London
10. De Bach P, Sundby RA (1963) Competitive displacement between ecological homologues. Hilgardia 34:105-166
11. De Melo-Abreu JP, Barranco D, Cordeiro AM, Tous J, Rogado BM, Villalobos FJ (2004) Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agric For Meteorol 125:117-127
12. De Michele DW, Curry GL, Sharpe PJH, Barfield CS (1976) Cotton bud drying: a theoretical model. Environ Entomol 5:1011-1016
13. Denney JO, McEachern GR, Griffiths JF (1985) Modeling the thermal adaptability of the olive (Olea europaea L.) in Texas. Agric For Meteorol 35:309
14. de Wit CT, Goudriaan J (1978) Simulation of ecological processes. PUDOC, The Netherlands
15. Di Cola G, Gilioli G, Baumgärtner J (1999) Mathematical models for age-structured population dynamics. In: Huffaker CB, Gutierrez AP (eds) Ecological entomology. Wiley, New York
16. Fitzpatrick EA, Nix HA (1968) The climatic factor in Australian grasslands ecology. In: Moore RM (ed) Australian Grasslands. Australian National University Press
17. Gilbert N, Gutierrez AP, Frazer BD, Jones RE (1976) Ecological relationships. Freeman, New York
18. Gutierrez AP (1992) The physiological basis of ratio dependent theory. Ecology 73:1552-1563
19. Gutierrez AP (1996) Applied population ecology: a supply-demand approach. Wiley, New York, USA Gutierrez AP (2000) Climate change: effects on pest dynamics. In: Reddy KR, Hodges HF (eds) Climate change and global crop productivity. CABI, Wallingford, UK
20. Gutierrez AP, Baumgärtner JU (1984) Multitrophic level models of predator-prey energetics: I. Age-specific energetics models-pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum (Homoptera: Aphididae) as an example. Can Entomol 116:924-932
21. Gutierrez AP, Baumgärtner JU (2007) Modeling the dynamics of tritrophic population interactions. In: Kogan M, Jepson P (eds) Perspectives in ecological theory and integrated pest management. Cambridge University Press
22. Gutierrez AP, Pizzamiglio MA (2007) A regional analysis of weather mediated competition between a parasitoid and a coccinellid predator of oleander scale. Neotrop Entomol 36:70-83
23. Gutierrez AP, Regev U (2005) The bioeconomics of tritrophic systems: applications to invasive species. Ecol Econ 52:383
24. Gutierrez AP, Wang YH (1977) Applied population ecology: models for crop production and pest management. In: Norton GA, Holling CS (eds) Pest management. Proc. Ser. Pergamon, Oxford
25. Gutierrez AP, Yaninek JS (1983) Responses to weather of eight aphid species commonly found in pastures in southeastern Australia. Can Entomol 115:1359-1364
26. Gutierrez AP, Nix HA, Havenstein DE, Moore PA (1974) The ecology of Aphis craccivora Koch and Subterranean Clover Stunt Virus in south-east Australia. III. A regional perspective of the phenology and migration of the cowpea aphid. J Appl Ecol 11:21-35
27. Gutierrez AP, Falcon LA, Loew W, Leipzig PA, van-den Bosch R (1975) An analysis of cotton production in California: a model for acala cotton and the effects of defoliators on its yields. Environ Entomol 4:125-136
28. Gutierrez AP, Butler GD Jr, Wang Y, Westphal D (1977) The interaction of pink bollworm (Lepidoptera: Gelichiidae), cotton, and weather: a detailed model. Can Entomol 109:1457-1468
29. Gutierrez AP, Baumgärtner JU, Summers CG (1984) Multitrophic level models of predator-prey energetics: III. A case study of an alfalfa ecosystem. Can Entomol 116:950-963
30. Gutierrez AP, Wermelinger B, Schulthess F, Baumgärtner JU, Herren HR, Ellis CK, Yaninek JS (1988) Analysis of biological control of cassava pests in Africa. I. Simulation of carbon, nitrogen and water dynamics in cassava. J Appl Ecol 25:901-920
31. Gutierrez AP, Mills NJ, Schreiber SJ, Ellis CK (1994) A physiologically based tritrophic perspective on bottom up-top down regulation of populations. Ecology 75:2227-2242
32. Gutierrez AP, Pitcairn MJ, Ellis CK, Carruthers N, Ghezelbash R (2005) Evaluating biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) in California: A GIS based supply-demand demographic model. Biol Control 34:115
33. Gutierrez AP, d'Oultremont T, Ellis CK, Ponti L (2006) Climatic limits of pink bollworm in Arizona and California: effects of climate warming. Acta Oecol 30:353-364
34. Gutierrez AP, Daane KM, Ponti L, Walton VM, Ellis CK (2007) Prospective evaluation of the biological control of vine mealybug: refuge effects and climate. J Appl Ecol (in press): DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01356.x
35. Gutierrez AP, Ponti L, Cossu QA (submitted) Effects of climate warming on the distribution of olive and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) (Gmelin): Arizona, California and Italy. J Appl Ecol
36. Hamilton JG, Dermody O, Aldea M, Zangerl AR, Rogers A, Berenbaum MR, Delucia EH (2005) Anthropogenic changes in tropospheric composition increase susceptibility of soybean to insect herbivory. Environ Entomol 34:479-455
37. Hartmann HT, Opitz KW (1980) Olive production in California. Leaflet 2474 University of California Div. Agric. Sci.Davis, USA
38. Hayhoe K, Cayan D, Field C, Frumhoff P, Maurer E, Miller N, Moser S, Schneider S, Cahill K, Cleland E, Dale L, Drapek R, Hanemann RM, Kalkstein L, Lenihan J, Lunch C, Neilson R, Sheridan S, Verville J (2004) Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:12422-12427
39. Huffaker CB (1971) Biological control. Plenum, New York
40. Huffaker CB, Kennett CE (1966) Studies of the olive scale, Parlatoria oleae (Colvee) IV Biological control of Parlatoria oleae (Colvee) through the compensatory action of two introduced parasites. Hilgardia 37:283-334
41. Hughes RD, Maywald GW (1990) Forecasting the favorableness of the Australian environment for the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Homoptera: Aphididae), and its potential impact on Australian wheat yields. Bull Entomol Res 80:165-175
42. Janssen JAM (1993) African armyworm outbreaks: why do they occur after drought. PhD Thesis, Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands
43. Mancuso S, Pasquali G, Fiorino P (2002) Phenology modelling and forecasting in olive (Olea europaea L.) using artificial neural networks. Adv Hort Sci 16:155-164
44. Maurer EP (2007) Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Clim Change 82:309-325
45. Maurer EP, Duffy PB (2005) Uncertainty in projections of stream flow changes due to climate change in California. Geophys Res Let 32:L03704 DOI 03710.01029/02004GL021462
46. Messenger PS (1964) Use of life-tables in a bioclimatic study of an experimental aphid-braconid wasp hostparasite system. Ecology 45:119-131
47. Messenger PS (1968) Bioclimatic studies of the aphid parasite Praon exsoletum. 1. effects of temperature on the functional response of females to varying host densities. Can Entomol 100:728-741
48. Messenger PS, Flitters NE (1954) Bioclimatic studies of three species of fruit flies in Hawaii. J Econ Entomol 47:756-765
49. Nechols JR, Tauber MJ, Tauber CA, Masaki S (1999) Adaptations to hazardous seasonal conditions: dormancy, migration, and polyphenism. In: Huffaker CB, Gutierrez AP (eds) Ecological entomology. Wiley, New York
50. Neuenschwander P, Hammond WNO, Gutierrez AP, Cudjoe AR, Adjakloe R, Baumgartner JU, Regev U (1989) Impact assessment of the biological control of the cassava mealybug, Phenacoccus manihoti Matile-Ferrero (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), by the introduced parasitoid Epidinocarsis lopezi (De Santis) (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae). Bull Entomol Res 79:579-594
51. Noyes JS, Hayat M (1994) Oriental mealybug parasitoids of the Anagyrini (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae). CAB International, Natural History Museum, London. University Press, Cambridge
52. Petrusewicz K, MacFayden A (1970) Productivity of terrestial animals: principles and methods. Blackwell, Oxford
53. Pickering J, Gutierrez AP (1991) Differential impact of the pathogen Pandora neoaphidis (R.&H.) Humber (Zygomycetes: Entomophthorales) on the species composition of Acyrthosiphon aphids in alfalfa. Can Entomol 123:315-320
54. Pimentel D, Lach L, Zuniga R, Morrison D (2000) Environmental and economic costs of nonindigenous species in the United States. BioScience 50:53-65
55. Quezada JR, DeBach P (1973) Bioecological and population studies of the cottony scale, Icerya purchasi Mask., and its natural enemies, Rodolia cardinalis Mul. and Cryptochaetum iceryae Wil., in southern California. Hilgardia 41:631-688
56. Reddy KR, Hodges HF (eds) (2000) Climate change and global crop productivity. CABI International, Wallingford, UK
57. Regev U, Gutierrez AP, Schreiber SJ, Zilberman D (1998) Biological and economic foundations of renewable resource exploitation. Ecol Econ 26:227-242
58. Ritchie JT (1972) Models for predicting evapotranspiration from a crop with incomplete cover. Water Resour Res 8:1204-1213
59. Rochat J, Gutierrez AP (2001) Weather-mediated regulation of olive scale by two parasitoids. J Anim Ecol 70:476-490
60. Roffey J, Popov G (1968) Environmental and behavioural processes in Desert locust outbreaks. Nature 219:446-450
61. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE (2000) The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289:1763-1766
62. Schreiber SJ, Gutierrez AP (1998) A supply/demand perspective of species invasions and coexistence: applications to biological control. Ecol Model 106:27-45
63. Shelford VE (1931) Some concepts of bioecology. Ecology 12:455-467
64. Sutherst RW (2004) Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. Clin Microbiol Rev 17:136-173
65. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Bottomly W (1991) From CLIMEX to PESKY, a generic expert system for risk assessment. EPPO Bulletin 21:595-608
66. Terblanche JS, Klok CJ, Krafsur ES, Chown SL (2006) Phenotypic plasticity and geographic variation in thermal tolerance and water loss of the tsetse Glossina pallidipes (Diptera: Glossinidae): implications for distribution modelling. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74:786-794
67. Vansickle J (1977) Attrition in distributed delay models. IEEE T Syst Man Cyb 7:635-638
68. Venette RC, Naranjo SE, Hutchison WD (2000) Implications of larval mortality at low temperatures and high soil moistures for establishment of pink bollworm (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in Southeastern United States cotton. Environ Entomol 29:1018-1026
69. von Liebig J (1840) Chemistry and its applications to agriculture and physiology. Taylor and Walton, London
70. Walther GR (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-395
71. Watson RT (2002) The future of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Climate Policy 2(4):269-271
72. Wermelinger B, Baumgärtner J, Gutierrez AP (1991) A demographic model of assimilation and allocation of carbon and nitrogen in grapevines. Ecol Model 53:1-26
73. White TCR (1984) The abundance of invertebrate herbivores in relation to the availability of nitrogen in stressed food plants. Oecologia 63:90-105
74. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (2002) Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles. Agric Forest Entomol 4:87-99
75. Ziska LH (2003) Evaluation of growth response of six invasive species to past, present, and future atmospheric CO2. J Exp Bot 54:395-406
76. Ziska LH, Teasdale JR, Bunce JA (1999) Future atmospheric CO2 may increase tolerance to glyphosate. Weed Sci 47:608-615