Spatial variation buffers temporal fluctuations in early juvenile survival for an endangered Pacific salmon

Journal of Animal Ecology

Volumn 83, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 157-167

  Thorson, James T ^a   Scheuerell, Mark D ^a   Buhle, Eric R ^a   Copeland, Timothy ^b  

^a ALASKA FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^b IDAHO DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME   (United States)

Author keywords

Chinook salmon; Hierarchical model; Juvenile survival; Portfolio effect; Random effects

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTION; BUFFER ZONE; CARRYING CAPACITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENDANGERED SPECIES; GENETIC VARIATION; JUVENILE; METAPOPULATION; PHENOTYPE; RANDOM WALK METHOD; SALMONID; SPATIAL VARIATION; SURVIVAL;

IDAHO; SNAKE RIVER; UNITED STATES;

ONCORHYNCHUS; ONCORHYNCHUS TSHAWYTSCHA; SALMONIDAE;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; DEMOGRAPHY; ENDANGERED SPECIES; HIERARCHICAL MODEL; JUVENILE SURVIVAL; LONGEVITY; ONCORHYNCHUS TSHAWYTSCHA; PHYSIOLOGY; PORTFOLIO EFFECT; RANDOM EFFECTS; SALMON; TIME;

CHINOOK SALMON; HIERARCHICAL MODEL; JUVENILE SURVIVAL; PORTFOLIO EFFECT; RANDOM EFFECTS;

ANIMALS; DEMOGRAPHY; ENDANGERED SPECIES; LONGEVITY; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SALMON; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84890790770     PISSN: 00218790     EISSN: 13652656     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12117     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Achord, S., Levin, P.S. & Zabel, R.W. (2003) Density-dependent mortality in Pacific salmon: the ghost of impacts past? Ecology Letters, 6, 335-342.
2. Anders, A.D., Dearborn, D.C., Faaborg, J. & Iii, F.R.T. (1997) Juvenile survival in a population of neotropical migrant birds. Conservation Biology, 11, 698-707.
3. Armstrong, D.P. & Seddon, P.J. (2008) Directions in reintroduction biology. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 23, 20-25.
4. Barrowman, N.J., Myers, R.A., Hilborn, R., Kehler, D.G. & Field, C.A. (2003) The variability among populations of coho salmon in the maximum reproductive rate and depensation. Ecological Applications, 13, 784-793.
5. Bjornn, T.C. (1971) Trout and salmon movements in two Idaho streams as related to temperature, food, stream flow, cover, and population density. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 100, 423-438.
6. Bjornn, T.C. (1978) Survival, Production, and Yield of Trout and Chinook Salmon in the Lemhi River, Idaho. Forest, Wildlife and Range Experiment Station, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA.
7. Bjørnstad, O.N., Ims, R.A. & Lambin, X. (1999) Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 14, 427-432.
8. Bradford, M.J. (1995) Comparative review of Pacific salmon survival rates. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 52, 1327-1338.
9. Brannon, E.L., Amend, D.F., Cronin, M.A., Lannan, J.E., LaPatra, S., McNeil, W.J. et al. (2004) The controversy about salmon hatcheries. Fisheries, 29, 12-31.
10. Bright, P.W. & Morris, P.A. (1994) Animal translocation for conservation: performance of dormice in relation to release methods, origin and season. Journal of Applied Ecology, 31, 699-708.
11. Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D. (2002) Model Selection and Multi-Model Inference, 2nd edn. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
12. Carlson, S.M. & Satterthwaite, W.H. (2011) Weakened portfolio effect in a collapsed salmon population complex. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 68, 1579-1589.
13. Cavanaugh, K.C., Kendall, B.E., Siegel, D.A., Reed, D.C., Alberto, F. & Assis, J. (2013) Synchrony in dynamics of giant kelp forests is driven by both local recruitment and regional environmental controls. Ecology, 94, 499-509.
14. Clark, J.S. (2003) Uncertainty and variability in demography and population growth: a hierarchical approach. Ecology, 84, 1370-1381.
15. Clark, J.S., LaDeau, S. & Ibanez, I. (2004) Fecundity of trees and the colonization-competition hypothesis. Ecological Monographs, 74, 415-442.
16. Copeland, T. & Meyer, K.A. (2011) Interspecies synchrony in salmonid densities associated with large-scale bioclimatic conditions in central Idaho. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 140, 928-942.
17. Copeland, T. & Venditti, D.A. (2009) Contribution of three life history types to smolt production in a Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 66, 1658-1665.
18. Coulson, T., Catchpole, E.A., Albon, S.D., Morgan, B.J.T., Pemberton, J.M., Clutton-Brock, T.H. et al. (2001) Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science, 292, 1528-1531.
19. Crozier, L.G. & Zabel, R.W. (2006) Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon. Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 1100-1109.
20. Crozier, L.G., Zabel, R.W., Hockersmith, E.E. & Achord, S. (2009) Interacting effects of density and temperature on body size in multiple populations of Chinook salmon. Journal of Animal Ecology, 79, 342-349.
21. De Valpine, P. & Hilborn, R. (2005) State-space likelihoods for nonlinear fisheries time-series. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 62, 1937-1952.
22. Doak, D.F., Bigger, D., Harding, E.K., Marvier, M.A., O'malley, R.E. & Thomson, D. (1998) The statistical inevitability of stability-diversity relationships in community ecology. The American Naturalist, 151, 264-276.
23. Earn, D.J.D. (2000) Coherence and conservation. Science, 290, 1360-1364.
24. Elmqvist, T., Folke, C., Nyström, M., Peterson, G., Bengtsson, J., Walker, B. et al. (2003) Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1, 488-494.
25. Elton, C.S. (1958) The Ecology of Invasions by Plants and Animals. Methuen & Co., London.
26. Engen, S., Lande, R. & Sæther, B. (2002) The spatial scale of population fluctuations and quasi-extinction risk. The American Naturalist, 160, 439-451.
27. Gaillard, J.-M., Festa-Bianchet, M. & Yoccoz, N.G. (1998) Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 13, 58-63.
28. Gelman, A. (2005) Analysis of variance-why it is more important than ever. The Annals of Statistics, 33, 1-53.
29. Gelman, A. & Rubin, D.B. (1992) Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Statistical science, 7, 457-472.
30. Good, T.P., Waples, R.S. & Adams, P. (2005) Updated Status of Federally Listed ESUs of West Coast Salmon and Steelhead. NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-66., U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC.
31. Govindarajulu, P., Altwegg, R. & Anholt, B.R. (2005) Matrix model investigation of invasive species control: bullfrogs on Vancouver Island. Ecological Applications, 15, 2161-2170.
32. Greene, C.M. & Beechie, T.J. (2004) Consequences of potential density-dependent mechanisms on recovery of ocean-type chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 61, 590-602.
33. Greene, C.M., Hall, J.E., Guilbault, K.R. & Quinn, T.P. (2010) Improved viability of populations with diverse life-history portfolios. Biology Letters, 6, 382-386.
34. Grenouillet, G., Hugueny, B., Carrel, G.A., Olivier, J.M. & Pont, D. (2001) Large-scale synchrony and inter-annual variability in roach recruitment in the Rhône River: the relative role of climatic factors and density-dependent processes. Freshwater Biology, 46, 11-26.
35. Hanski, I. & Woiwod, I.P. (1993) Spatial synchrony in the dynamics of moth and aphid populations. Journal of Animal Ecology, 62, 656-668.
36. Heino, M., Kaitala, V., Ranta, E. & Lindstrom, J. (1997) Synchronous dynamics and rates of extinction in spatially structured populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 264, 481-486.
37. Hess, M.A., Rabe, C.D., Vogel, J.L., Stephenson, J.J., Nelson, D.D. & Narum, S.R. (2012) Supportive breeding boosts natural population abundance with minimal negative impacts on fitness of a wild population of Chinook salmon. Molecular Ecology, 21, 5236-5250.
38. Hirzel, A.H., Posse, B., OGGIER, P.-A., Crettenand, Y., Glenz, C. & Arlettaz, R. (2004) Ecological requirements of reintroduced species and the implications for release policy: the case of the bearded vulture. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 1103-1116.
39. Isaak, D.J., Thurow, R.F., Rieman, B.E. & Dunham, J.B. (2003) Temporal variation in synchrony among chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central Idaho. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 60, 840-848.
40. Knaus, J. (2010) Snowfall: Easier Cluster Computing (Based on Snow). http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=snowfall.
41. Koenig, W.D. (1999) Spatial autocorrelation of ecological phenomena. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 14, 22-26.
42. Koizumi, I., Yamamoto, S., Nomoto, K. & Maekawa, K. (2008) Synchrony in local population dynamics of stream-dwelling Dolly Varden: do genetically similar groups show similar demography? Population Ecology, 50, 367-377.
43. Kraaijeveld-Smit, F.J.L., Griffiths, R.A., Moore, R.D. & Beebee, T.J. (2006) Captive breeding and the fitness of reintroduced species: a test of the responses to predators in a threatened amphibian. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 360-365.
44. Levin, P.S., Achord, S., Feist, B.E. & Zabel, R.W. (2002) Non-indigenous brook trout and the demise of Pacific salmon: a forgotten threat? Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 269, 1663-1670.
45. Liebhold, A., Koenig, W.D. & Bjørnstad, O.N. (2004) Spatial synchrony in population dynamics. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 35, 467-490.
46. Lindén, A. & Mäntyniemi, S. (2011) Using negative binomial distribution to model overdispersion in ecological count data. Ecology, 92, 1414-1421.
47. Ludwig, D. & Walters, C.J. (1981) Measurement errors and uncertainty in parameter estimates for stock and recruitment. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 38, 711-720.
48. MacArthur, R. (1955) Fluctuations of animal populations and a measure of community stability. Ecology, 36, 533-536.
49. May, R.M. (1986) The search for patterns in the balance of nature: advances and retreats. Ecology, 67, 1115-1126.
50. Moore, J.W., Schindler, D.E. & Scheuerell, M.D. (2004) Disturbance of freshwater habitats by anadromous salmon in Alaska. Oecologia, 139, 298-308.
51. Moore, J.W., McClure, M., Rogers, L.A. & Schindler, D.E. (2010) Synchronization and portfolio performance of threatened salmon. Conservation Letters, 3, 340-348.
52. Myers, R.A., Mertz, G. & Bridson, J. (1997) Spatial scales of interannual recruitment variations of marine, anadromous, and freshwater fish. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 54, 1400-1407.
53. Naish, K.A., Taylor, J.E., Levin, P.S., Quinn, T.P., Winton, J.R., Huppert, D. et al. (2008) An evaluation of the effects of conservation and fishery enhancement hatcheries on wild populations of salmon. Advances in Marine Biology, 53, 61.
54. Nichols, J.D., Bart, J., Limpert, R.J., Sladen, W.J.L. & Hines, J.E. (1992) Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 56, 485-494.
55. Plummer, M. (2003) JAGS: A program for analysis of Bayesian graphical models using Gibbs sampling. Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Distributed Statistical Computing (DSC 2003). March, pp. 20-22.
56. Punt, A.E., Smith, D.C., KrusicGolub, K. & Robertson, S. (2008) Quantifying age-reading error for use in fisheries stock assessments, with application to species in Australia's southern and eastern scalefish and shark fishery. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 65, 1991-2005.
57. Pyper, B.J., Mueter, F.J. & Peterman, R.M. (2005) Across-species comparisons of spatial scales of environmental effects on survival rates of northeast Pacific salmon. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 134, 86-104.
58. R Development Core Team (2011) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Development Core Team, Vienna, Austria.
59. Ringsby, T.H., Sæther, B.-E., Tufto, J., Jensen, H. & Solberg, E.J. (2002) Asynchronous spatiotemporal demography of a house sparrow metapopulation in a correlated environment. Ecology, 83, 561-569.
60. Rogers, L.A. & Schindler, D.E. (2008) Asynchrony in population dynamics of sockeye salmon in southwest Alaska. Oikos, 117, 1578-1586.
61. Royle, J.A. & Dorazio, R.M. (2008) Hierarchical Modeling and Inference in Ecology: The Analysis of Data from Populations, Metapopulations and Communities, 1st edn. Academic Press, London.
62. Royle, J.A. & Nichols, J.D. (2003) Estimating abundance from repeated presence-absence data or point counts. Ecology, 84, 777-790.
63. Royle, J.A. & Wikle, C.K. (2005) Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 12, 225-243.
64. Saether, B.-E., Lillegård, M., Grøtan, V., Drever, M.C., Engen, S., Nudds, T.D. et al. (2008) Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks. Journal of Animal Ecology, 77, 869-882.
65. Scheuerell, M.D. & Williams, J.G. (2005) Forecasting climate-induced changes in the survival of Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Fisheries Oceanography, 14, 448-457.
66. Schindler, D.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Moore, J.W., Gende, S.M., Francis, T.B. & Palen, W.J. (2003) Pacific salmon and the ecology of coastal ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1, 31-37.
67. Schindler, D.E., Hilborn, R., Chasco, B., Boatright, C.P., Quinn, T.P., Rogers, L.A. et al. (2010) Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited species. Nature, 465, 609-612.
68. Seddon, P.J., Armstrong, D.P. & Maloney, R.F. (2007) Developing the science of reintroduction biology. Conservation Biology, 21, 303-312.
69. Sekulich, P.T. (1980) The carrying capacity of infertile forest streams for rearing juvenile Chinook Salmon. Ph.D., University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA.
70. Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.P. & van der Linde, A. (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Statistical Methodology), 64, 583-639.
71. Su, Y.-S. & Yajima, M. (2012) R2jags: A Package for Running Jags from R. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=R2jags
72. Tavecchia, G., Minguez, E., De León, A., Louzao, M. & Oro, D. (2008) Living close, doing differently: small-scale asynchrony in demography of two species of seabirds. Ecology, 89, 77-85.
73. Thibaut, L.M. & Connolly, S.R. (2013) Understanding diversity-stability relationships: towards a unified model of portfolio effects. Ecology Letters, 16, 140-150.
74. Thibaut, L.M., Connolly, S.R. & Sweatman, H.P. (2012) Diversity and stability of herbivorous fishes on coral reefs. Ecology, 93, 891-901.
75. Tilman, D. (1999) The ecological consequences of changes in biodiversity: a search for general principles. Ecology, 80, 1455-1474.
76. Tilman, D., Lehman, C.L. & Bristow, C.E. (1998) Diversity-stability relationships: statistical inevitability or ecological consequence? The American Naturalist, 151, 277-282.
77. Turchin, P. (2003) Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
78. Walters, A., Copeland, T. & Venditti, D. (2013) The density dilemma: limitations on juvenile production in threatened salmon populations. Ecology of Freshwater fish, 22, DOI: 10.1111/eff.12046
79. Walters, C. & Kitchell, J.F. (2001) Cultivation/depensation effects on juvenile survival and recruitment: implications for the theory of fishing. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 58, 39-50.
80. Waples, R.S. (1995) Evolutionarily significant units and the conservation of biological diversity under the Endangered Species Act. American Fisheries Society Symposium, 17, 8-27.
81. Zabel, R.W., Scheuerell, M.D., McClure, M.M. & Williams, J.G. (2006) The interplay between climate variability and density dependence in the population viability of Chinook salmon. Conservation Biology, 20, 190-200.