The effects of imposed stratospheric cooling on the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones in axisymmetric radiative-convective equilibrium

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 24, 2013, Pages 9977-9985

  Ramsay, Hamish A ^a  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Cloud resolving models; Stratosphere; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL; MAXIMUM INTENSITIES; RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE EQUILIBRIUM; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE DECREASE; THERMAL EFFICIENCY; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; HURRICANES; TEMPERATURE; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

OCEANOGRAPHY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLOUD COVER; COOLING; OUTFLOW; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RADIATIVE FORCING; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STRATOSPHERE; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TROPOPAUSE;

EID: 84890211818     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00195.1     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Betts, A. K., and J. Bartlo, 1991: The density temperature and the dry and wet virtual adiabats. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 169-175.
2. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 52, 233-240.
3. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4801, doi:10.1029/2001JD000776.
4. Brown, B. R., and G. J. Hakim, 2013: Variability and predictability of a three-dimensional hurricane in statistical equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1806-1820.
5. Bryan, G. H., 2012: Effects of surface exchange coefficients and turbulence length scales on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1135-1143.
6. Bryan, G. H., and J. M. Fritsch, 2002: A benchmark simulation for moist nonhydrostatic numerical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2917-2928.
7. Bryan, G. H., and R. Rotunno, 2009: Evaluation of an analytical model for the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3042-3060.
8. Camargo, S. J., M. Ting, and Y. Kushnir, 2013: Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity. Climate Dyn., 40, 1515-1529, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1536-4.
9. Chavas, D. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2012: Equilibrium tropical cyclone size in an idealized state of axisymmetric radiative- convective equilibrium. Preprints, 30th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10C4. [Available online at https://ams.confex. com/ams/30Hurricane/webprogram/Paper204770.html.]
10. Cordero, E., and P. Forster, 2006: Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5369-5380.
11. Dunion, J. P., and C. S. Marron, 2008: A reexamination of the Jordan mean tropical sounding based on awareness of the Saharan air layer: Results from 2002. J. Climate, 21, 5242-5253.
12. Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, 2008: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 455, 92-95.
13. Emanuel, K. A., 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-605.
14. Emanuel, K. A., 1987: The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483-485.
15. Emanuel, K. A., 2010a: Stratospheric cooling and tropical cyclones. Preprints, 29th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4A.4. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/webprogram/Paper168302.html.]
16. Emanuel, K. A., 2010b: Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAACIRES reanalysis, 1908-1958. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2 (1), doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.
17. Emanuel, K., and R. Rotunno, 2011: Self-stratification of tropical cyclone outflow. Part I: Implications for storm structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2236-2249.
18. Emanuel, K., S. Solomon, D. Folini, S. Davis, and C. Cagnazzo, 2013: Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate, 26, 2288-2301.
19. Fu, Q., C. M. Johanson, S. G. Warren, and D. J. Seidel, 2004: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature, 429, 55-58.
20. Fu, Q., S. Manabe, and C. M. Johanson, 2011: On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15704, doi:10.1029/2011GL048101.
21. Hakim, G. J., 2011: The mean state of axisymmetric hurricanes in statistical equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1364-1376.
22. Hakim, G. J., 2013: The variability and predictability of axisymmetric hurricanes in statistical equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 993-1005.
23. Holland, G. J., 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2519-2541.
24. Hurrell, J. W., and K. E. Trenberth, 1998: Difficulties in obtaining reliable temperature trends: Reconciling the surface and satellitemicrowave sounding unit records. J. Climate, 11, 945-967.
25. Knutson, T. R., and Coauthors, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci., 3, 157-163.
26. Lanzante, J., S. Klein, and D. J. Seidel, 2003: Temporal homogenization ofmonthly radiosonde temperature data. Part II: Trends, sensitivities, and MSU comparisons. J. Climate, 16, 241-262.
27. Montgomery, M. T., V. S. Nguyen, J. Persing, and R. K. Smith, 2009: Do tropical cyclones intensify by WISHE? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1697-1714.
28. Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative-convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.
29. Pauluis, O., and S. Garner, 2006: Sensitivity of radiative-convective equilibrium simulations to horizontal resolution. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1910-1923.
30. Persing, J., and M. T. Montgomery, 2003: Hurricane superintensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2349-2371.
31. Persing, J., and M. T. Montgomery, J. C. McWilliams, and R. K. Smith, 2013: Asymmetric and axisymmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 13 323-13 438.
32. Ramsay, H. A., and A. H. Sobel, 2011: Effects of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single-column model. J. Climate, 24, 183-193.
33. Randel, W., and Coauthors, 2009: An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02107, doi:10.1029/2008JD010421.
34. Rotunno, R., and K. Emanuel, 1987: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 542-561.
35. Rotunno, R., and G. H. Bryan, 2012: Effects of parameterized diffusion on simulated hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2284-2299.
36. Santer, B. D., and Coauthors, 1996: A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature, 382, 39-46.
37. Santer, B. D., and Coauthors, 2005: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309, 1551-1556.
38. Sherwood, S. C., C. L. Meyer, and R. J. Allen, 2008: Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde. J. Climate, 21, 5336-5350.
39. Smith, R. K., M. T. Montgomery, and S. Vogl, 2008: A critique of Emanuel's hurricane model and potential intensity theory. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 551-561.
40. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller Jr., Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
41. Solomon, S., P. J. Young, and B. Hassler, 2012: Uncertainties in the evolution of stratospheric ozone and implications for recent temperature changes in the tropical lower stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17706, doi:10.1029/2012GL052723.
42. Thompson, A. M., and Coauthors, 2003: Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) 1998-2000 tropical ozone climatology. 1. Comparison with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and ground-based measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8238, doi:10.1029/2001JD000967.
43. Thompson, D. W. J., and S. Solomon, 2005: Recent stratospheric climate trends as evidenced in radiosonde data: Global structure and tropospheric linkages. J. Climate, 18, 4785-4795.
44. Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature, 450, 1066-1070.
45. Vecchi, G. A., S. Fueglistaler, I. M. Held, T. R. Knutson, and M. Zhao, 2013: Impacts of atmospheric temperature changes on tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 26, 3877-3891.
46. Wing, A. A., A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo, 2007: Relationship between the potential and actual intensities of tropical cyclones on interannual time scales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08810, doi:10.1029/2006GL028581.