Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Volumn 6, Issue 12, 2006, Pages 5369-5380

  Cordero, E C ^a   Forster, P M D F ^b  

^a SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANALYTICAL METHOD; ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; OCEANIC CIRCULATION; SIMULATION; STRATOSPHERE; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EID: 33751530053     PISSN: 16807316     EISSN: 16807324     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/acp-6-5369-2006     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Austin, J., Shindell, D., Beagley, S. R., Brühl, C., Dameris, M., Manzini, E., Nagashima, T., Newman, P., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Rozanov, E., Schnadt, C., and Shepherd, T. G.: Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3, 1-27, 2003, http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/3/1/2003/.
2. Cordero, E. C. and Nathan, T. R.: A New Pathway for Communicating the 11-Year Solar Cycle Signal to the QBO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18805, doi:10.1029/2005GL023696, 2005.
3. Folkins, I., Lowewenstein, M., Podolske, J. R., Oltmans, S. J., and Proffitt, M. H.: A barrier to vertical mixing at 14 km in the tropics: Evidence from ozonesondes and aircraft measurements, J. Geophys Res., 104, 22095-22 102, 1999.
4. Forster, P. M. d. F., Blackburn, M., Glover, R., and Shine, K. P.: An examination of climate sensitivity for idealised climate experiments in an intermediate general circulation model, Clim. Dyn., 16, 833-849, 2000.
5. Forster, P. M. d. F. and Collins, M.: Quantifying the water vapour feedback associated with post-Pinatubo global cooling, Clim. Dyn., 23, 207-214, 2004.
6. Forster, P. M. d. F., Freckleton, R. S., and Shine, K. P.: On aspects of the concept of radiative forcing, Clim. Dyn., 13, 547-560, 1997.
7. Forster, P. M. d. F. and Shine, K. P.: Assessing the climate impact and its uncertainty for trends in stratospheric water vapor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 6, doi:1029/2001GL013909, 2002.
8. Free, M. and Angell, J. K.: Effect of volcanoes on the vertical temperature profile in radiosonde data, J. Geophys Res., 107(D10), 4101, doi:1029/2001JD001128, 2002.
9. Free, M., Angell, J. K., Durre, I., Lanzante, J. R., Peterson, T. C., and Seidel, D. J.: Using first differences to reduce inhomogeneity in radiosonde temperature datasets, J. Climate, 17, 4171-4179, 2004.
10. Free, M., Seidel, D. J., Angell, J. K., Lanzante, J., Durre, I., and Peterson, T. C.: Radiosonde atmospheric temperature products for assessing climate (RATPAC): a new dataset of large-area anomaly time series, J. Geophys Res., 110, D22101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006169, 2005.
11. Fu, Q., Johanson, C. M., Warren, S. G., and Seidel, D. J.: Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends, Nature, 429, 55-58, 2004.
12. Gettelman, A. and Forster, P. M. d. F.: Definition and climatology of the tropical tropopause layer, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 911-924, 2002.
13. Gillett, N. P., Allen, M. R., McDonald, R. E., Senior, C. A., Shindell, D. T., and Schmidt, G. A.: How linear is the Arctic Oscillation response to greenhouse gases?, J. Geophys Res., 107, 4022, doi:10.1029/2001JD000589, 2002.
14. Gillett, N. P. and Thompson, D. W.: Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change, Science, 302, 273-275, 2003.
15. Haigh, J. D.: Climate variability and the influence of the sun, Science, 294, 2109-2111, 2001.
16. Haigh, J. D., Blackburn, M., and Day, R.: The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower stratospheric temperature, J. Climate, 18, 3672-3691, 2005.
17. Hamilton, K., Wilson, R. J., and Hemler, R. S.: Middle atmosphere simulated with high vertical and horizontal resolution versions of a GCM: Improvements in the cold pole bias and generation of a QBO-like oscillation in the tropics, Atmos. Sci., 56, 3829-3846, 1999.
18. Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johanson, C. A.: Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, 892 pp., 2001.
19. IPCC: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 881 pp., 2001.
20. Karl, T. R., Hassol, S. J., Miller, C. D., and Murray, W. L. (Eds.): Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences, The climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research, Washington, D.C., USA, 2006.
21. Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., Van der Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M.: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 82, 247-267, 2001.
22. Mears, C. A., Schabel, M. C., and Wentz, F. J.: A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 tropospheric temperature record, J. Climate, 16, 3650-3664, 2003.
23. Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., and Shindell, D. T.: Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18101, doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006323, 2006.
24. Nathan, T. R. and Cordero, E. C.: An ozone-modified refractive index for vertically propagating planetary waves, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2006.
25. Newman, P. A. and Nash, E. R.: The unusual southern hemisphere stratosphere winter of 2002, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 614-628, 2005.
26. NRC: Climate data records from environmental satellites, National Academy Press, 136 pp., 2004.
27. Pawson, S., Kodera, K., Hamilton, K., et al.: The GCM-Reality intercomparison project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific issues and initial results, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 781-796, 2000.
28. Ramaswamy, V., Chanin, M.-L., Angell, J., Barnett, J., Gaffen, D. J., Gelman, M., Keckhut, P., Koshelkov, Y., Labitzke, K., Lin, J.-J. R., O'Neill, A., Nash, J., Randel, W., Rood, R., Shine, K., Shiotani, M., and Swinbank, R.: Stratospheric temperature trends: observations and models simulations, Rev. Geophys., 39, 71-122, doi:1999RG000065, 2001.
29. Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Randel, W., Santer, B. D., Soden, B., and Stenchikov, G.: Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling, Science, 311, 1138-1141, 2006.
30. Randel, W., Udelhofen, P., Fleming, E. L., Geller, M. A., Gelman, M., Hamilton, K., Karoly, D. J., Ortland, D. A., Pawson, S., Swinbank, R., Wu, F., Baldwin, M. P., Chanin, M.-L., Keckhut, P., Labitzke, K., Remsberg, E., Simmons, A. J., and Wu, D.: The SPARC Intercomparison of middle-atmosphere climatologies, J. Climate, 17, 986-1003, 2004.
31. Randel, W. J. and Wu, F.: Biases in stratospheric and troposheric temperature trends derived from historical radiosonde data, J. Climate, 19(10), 2094-2104, 2006.
32. Randel, W. J., Wu, F., Vömel, H., Nedoluha, H. G., and Forster, P. M. d. F.: Decreases in stratospheric water vapor since 2001: Links to changes in the tropical tropopause and the Brewer-Dobson circulation, J. Geophys Res., 111, D12312, doi:10.1029/2005JD006744, 2006.
33. Rind, D.: Climatology: The sun's role in climate variations, Science, 296, 673-677, 2002.
34. Rind, D., Shindell, D., Perlwhitz, J., and Lerner, J.: The Relative Importance of Solar and Anthropogenic Forcing of Climate Change between the Maunder Minimum and the Present, J. Climate, 17, 906-929, 2004.
35. Santer, B. D., Sausen, R., Wigley, T. M. L., Boyle, J. S., AchutaRao, K., Doutriaux, C., Hansen, J. E., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Ruedy, R., Schmidt, G. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses and observations: Decadal changes, J. Geophys Res., 108, D14002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258, 2003a.
36. Santer, B. D., Wehner, M. F., Wigley, T. M. L., Sausen, R., Meehl, G. A., Taylor, K. E., Ammann, C., Arblaster, J., Washington, W. M., Boyle, J. S., and Bruggemann, W.: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes, Science, 301, 479-483, 2003b.
37. Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Mears, C., Wentz, F. J., Klein, S. A., Seidel, D. J., Taylor, K. E., Thorne, P. W., Wehner, M. F., Gleckler, P. J., Boyle, J. S., Collins, W. D., Dixon, K. W., Doutriaux, C., Free, M., Fu, Q., Hansen, J. E., Jones, G. S., Ruedy, R., Karl, T. R., Lanzante, J. R., Meehl, G. A., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, G., and Schmidt, G. A.: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere, Science, 309, 1551-1556, doi:10.1126/science.114867, 2005.
38. Seidel, D. J., Angell, J. K., Christy, J., Free, M., Klein, S. A., Lanzante, J. R., Mears, C., Parker, D. E., Schabel, M., Spencer, R., Sterin, A., Thorne, P. W., and Wentz, F. J.: Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature datasets, J. Climate, 17, 2225-2240, 2004.
39. Shepherd, T. G. and Shaw, T. A.: The angular momentum constraint on climate sensitivity and downward influence in the middle atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2899-2908, 2004.
40. Shindell, D. T. and Schmidt, G. A.: Southern hemisphere climate response to ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases, Geo phys. Res. Lett., 31, L18209, doi:10.1029/2004GL020724, 2004.
41. Shine, K. P., Bourqui, M. S., Forster, P. M. F., et al.: A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperature, Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 129, 1565-1588, doi:10.1256/qj.02.186, 2003.
42. 2 doubling, J. Climate, 17, 2352-2367, 2004.
43. Stenchikov, G., Hamiliton, K., Stouffer, R. J., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, V., Santer, B. D., and Graf, H.-F.: Arctic oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D07107, doi:10.1029/2005JD006286, 2006.
44. Stenchikov, G., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Hamiliton, K., and Ramachandran, S.: Arctic oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion, J. Geophys Res., 107(D24), 4803, doi:10.1029/2002JD002090, 2002.
45. Stuber, N., Ponater, M., and Sausen, R.: Is the climate sensitivity to ozone perturbations enhanced by stratospheric water vapor feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2887-2890, 2001.
46. Tett, S. F. B., Mitchell, J. F. B., Parker, D. H., and Allen, M. R.: Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: Detection and observations, Science, 274, 1170-1173, 1996.
47. Thompson, D. W., Baldwin, M. P., and Solomon, S.: Stratospheretroposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 708-715, 2005.
48. Thompson, D. W. and Solomon, S.: Recent stratospheric climate trends as evidenced in radiosonde data:Global structure and tropospheric linkages, J. Climate, 18, 4785-4795, 2005.
49. Thorne, P. W., Parker, D. E., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, P. D., McCarthy, M., Coleman, H., and Brohan, P.: Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperature from 1958 to 2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18105, doi:10.1029/2004JD005753, 2005.
50. Thuburn, J. and Craig, G. C.: Stratospheric influence on tropopause height: The radiative constraint, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 17-28, 2000.
51. WMO: Scientific assessment of ozone depletion:2002. Global ozone research and monitoring project, Report number 47, 498, 2003.