Designing Distributed Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems for Complex and Uncertain Situations

Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence

Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 45-76

  Comes, Tina ^a   Wijngaards, Niek ^b   Schultmann, Frank ^a  

^a KARLSRUHE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Germany)

^b THALES RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY   (France)

Author keywords

Decision support systems; Multi attribute decision making (MADM); Multi attribute value theory (MAVT); Multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA); Scenario based reasoning (SBR)

Indexed keywords

EID: 84886656496     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9781118522516.ch3     Document Type: Chapter

References (107)

1. Arentze TA, Dellaert BGC and Timmermans HJP (2008) Modeling and measuring individuals' mental representations of complex spatio-temporal decision problems. Environment and Behavior 40(6), 843-869.
2. Ascough J, Maier H, Ravalico J and Strudley M (2008) Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making. EcologicalModelling 219(3-4), 383-399.
3. Behzadian M, Kazemzadeh R, Albadvi A and Aghdasi M (2010) PROMETHEE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications. European Journal of Operational Research 200(1), 198-215.
4. Belton V and Hodgkin J (1999) Facilitators, decision makers, D.I.Y. users: Is intelligent multicriteria decision support for all feasible or desirable? European Journal of Operational Research 113(2), 247-260.
5. Belton V and Stewart T (2002) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. An Integrated Approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.
6. Ben-Haim Y (2000) Robust rationality and decisions under severe uncertainty. Journal of the Franklin Institute 337(2-3), 171-199.
7. Benartzi S and Thaler RH (1999) Risk aversion or myopia? Choices in repeated gambles and retirement investments. Management Science 45(3), 364-381.
8. Ben-Haim Y (2004) Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 85(1-3), 249-266.
9. Bertsch V, Geldermann J and Rentz O (2007) Preference sensitivity analyses for Multi-Attribute Decision Support. In Operations Research Proceedings 2006. Springer, Berlin, pp. 411-416.
10. Bertsch V, Geldermann J, Rentz O and Raskob W (2006) Multi-criteria decision support and stakeholder involvement in emergency management. International Journal of Emergency Management 3(2-3), 114-130.
11. Boonekamp P (1997) Monitoring the energy use of households using a simulation model. Energy Policy 25(7-9), 781-787.
12. Brans JP and Vincke P (1985) A Preference Ranking Organisation Method: The PROMETHEE Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making. Management Science 31(6), 647-656.
13. Brugha CM (2004) Structure of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making. The Journal of the Operational Research Society 55(11), 1156-1168.
14. Butler JC, Dyer JS and Jia J (2006) Using attributes to predict objectives in preference models. Decision Analysis 3(2), 100-116.
15. Chaib-draa B (2002) Causal maps: theory, implementation, and practical applications in multiagent environments. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 14(6), 1201-1217.
16. Chang YH and Yeh CH (2001) Evaluating airline competitiveness using multiattribute decision making. Omega 29(5), 405-415.
17. Chermack TJ (2004) Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 36(3), 295-309.
18. Comes T (2011) Decision Maps for Distributed Scenario-Based Multi Criteria Decision Support. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
19. Comes T, Hiete M, Wijngaards N and Schultmann F (2010) Enhancing robustness in multi-criteria decision-making: A scenario-based Approach. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Intelligent Networking and Collaborative Systems. IEEE Computer Society, Washington, DC, pp. 484-489.
20. Comes T, Hiete M, Wijngaards N and Schultmann F (2011a) Decision Maps: A framework for multi-criteria decision support under severe uncertainty. Decision Support Systems 52(1), 108-118.
21. Comes T and Schultmann F (2012) Enhancing robustness against natural hazards in supply chain management. 10th International Conference on Applied Mathematical Optimization and Modelling (APMOD 2012).
22. Comes T, Wijngaards N, Hiete M, Conrado C and Schultmann F (2011b) A distributed scenariobased decision support system for robust decision-making in complex situations. International Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 3(4), 17-35.
23. Comes T, Wijngaards N, Maule J, Allen D and Schultmann F (2012) Scenario reliability assessment to support decision makers in situations of severe uncertainty. IEEE Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support. IEEE Computer Society, Washington, DC, pp. 30-37.
24. Craighead CW, Blackhurst J, Rungtusanatham MJ and Handfield RB (2007) The severity of supply chain disruptions: Design characteristics and mitigation capabilities. Decision Sciences 38(1), 131-156.
25. Edwards W (1977) How to use multiattribute utility measurement for social decisionmaking. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 7(5), 326-340.
26. Eisenhardt KM and Zbaracki MJ (1992) Strategic decision making. Strategic Management Journal 13, 17-37.
27. Fenton N and Neil M (2001) Making decisions: using bayesian nets and MCDA. Knowledge-Based Systems 14(7), 307-325.
28. Fishburn PC (1968) Utility theory. Management Science 14(5), 335-378.
29. Fonseca C and Fleming P (1995) An overview of evolutionary algorithms in multiobjective optimization. Evolutionary Computation 3(1), 1-16.
30. French S (1986) Decision Theory: An Introduction of the Mathematics of Rationality. Ellis Harwood Limited, Chichester.
31. French S (1996) Multi-attribute decision support in the event of a nuclear accident. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 5(1), 39-57.
32. French S, Bedford T and Atherton E (2005) Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory. Journal of Risk Research 8(3), 207-223.
33. French S, Maule J and Papamichail N (2009) Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
34. French S and Niculae C (2005) Believe in the model: mishandle the emergency. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 2(1).
35. Galles D and Pearl J (1997) Axioms of causal relevance, Artificial Intelligence 97(1-2), 9-43.
36. Gass SI (2005) Model world: The great debate-MAUT versus AHP. Interfaces 35(4), 308-312.
37. Geldermann J, Bertsch V, Treitz M, French S, Papamichail KN and Hämäläinen RP (2009) Multicriteria decision support and evaluation of strategies for nuclear remediation management. Omega 37(1), 238-251.
38. Girod B, Wiek A, Mieg H and Hulme M (2009) The evolution of the IPCC's emissions scenarios. Environmental Science & Policy 12(2), 103-118.
39. Godet M (2000) The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65(1), 3-22.
40. Goodier C, Austin S, Soetanto R and Dainty A (2010) Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations. Futures 42(3), 219-229.
41. Guitouni A and Martel JM (1998) Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method. European Journal of Operational Research 109(2), 501-521.
42. Haimes YY, Kaplan S and Lambert JH (2002) Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modeling. Risk Analysis 22(2), 383-398.
43. Hansson SO (1996) Decision making under great uncertainty. Philosophy of the Social Sciences 26(3), 369-386.
44. Helbing D (2009) Managing complexity in socio-economic systems. European Review 17, 423-438.
45. Helbing D, Ammoser H and Kühnert C (2006) Disasters as extreme events and the importance of network interactions for disaster response management. In Extreme Events in Nature and Society (eds Albeverio S, Jentsch V and Kantz H), The Frontiers Collection. Springer, Berlin, pp. 319-348.
46. Helbing D and Lämmer S (2008) Managing complexity: An introduction. In Managing Complexity: Insights, Concepts, Applications (ed. Helbing D), vol. 32 of Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Berlin, pp. 1-16.
47. Hodgkinson GP, Bown NJ, Maule J, Glaister KW and Pearman AD (1999) Breaking the frame: an analysis of strategic cognition and decision making under uncertainty. Strategic Management Journal 20(10), 977-985.
48. Jacquet-Lagréze E and Siskos Y (1982) Assessing a set of additive utility functions for multicriteria decision-making, the UTA method. European Journal of Operational Research 10(2), 151-164.
49. Jacquet-Lagréze E and Siskos Y (2001) Preference disaggregation: 20 years of MCDA experience. European Journal of Operational Research 130(2), 233-245.
50. Jakeman J, Eldred M and Xiu D (2010) Numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Journal of Computational Physics 229(12), 4648-4663.
51. Kahn H and Wiener AJ (1967) The next thirty-three years: A framework for speculation. Daedalus 96(3), 705-732.
52. Kahneman D and Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2), 263-291.
53. Kaplan S (1997) The words of risk analysis. Risk Analysis 17(4), 407-417.
54. Kaplan S and Garrick BJ (1981) On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis 1(1), 11-27.
55. Keeney RL (1971) Utility independence and preferences for multiattributed consequences. Operations Research 19(4), 875-893.
56. Keeney RL and Raiffa H (1976) Decisions with Multiple Objectives. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, New York.
57. Keeney RL, Raiffa H and Rajala DW (1979) Decisions with multiple objectives: Preferences and value trade-offs. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 9(7), 403.
58. Kleindorfer PR and Saad GH (2005) Managing disruption risks in supply chains. Production and Operations Management 14(1), 53-68.
59. Lempert RJ, Groves DG, Popper SW and Bankes SC (2006) A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Management Science 52(4), 514-528.
60. Levy D (1994) Chaos theory and strategy: Theory, application, and managerial implications. Strategic Management Journal 15(S2), 167-178.
61. Malczewski J (2005) Integrating multicriteria analysis and geographic information systems: the ordered weighted averaging OWA approach. International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management 6(13), 7-19.
62. March JG and Shapira Z (1987) Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management Science 33(11), 1404-1418.
63. Matos MA (2007) Decision under risk as a multicriteria problem. European Journal of Operational Research 181(3), 1516-1529.
64. Maule A (2010) Can computers overcome limitations in human decision making? International Journal of Human Computer Interaction 26, 108-119.
65. Maule A and Hodgkinson G (2002) Heuristics, biases and strategic decision making. The Psychologist 15, 68-71.
66. Montibeller G and Belton V (2006) Causal maps and the evaluation of decision options-a review. Journal of the Operational Research Society 57(57), 779-791.
67. Montibeller G, Belton V, Ackermann F and Ensslin L (2008) Reasoning maps for decision aid: an integrated approach for problem-structuring and multi-criteria evaluation. Journal of the Operational Research Society 59(5), 575-589.
68. O'Hagan M (1988) Aggregating template or rule antecedents in real-time expert systems with fuzzy set logic. Twenty-Second Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems and Computers, vol. 2, pp. 681-689.
69. Olshavsky RW (1979) Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making: A replication and extension. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 24(3), 300-316.
70. Paté-Cornell E (1996) Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment. Reliability Engenieering & System Safety 54(2-3), 95-111.
71. Pathak SD, Day JM, Nair A, Sawaya WJ and Kristal MM (2007) Complexity and adaptivity in supply networks: Building supply network theory using a complex adaptive systems perspective. Decision Sciences 38(4), 547-580.
72. Pavlin G, Kamermans M and Scafes M (2010) Dynamic process integration framework: Toward efficient information processing in complex distributed systems. Informatica 34, 477-490.
73. Pavlin G, Wijngaards N and Nieuwenhuis K (2009) Towards a single information space for environmental management through self-configuration of distributed information processing systems. In Proceedings of the European Conference TOWARDS eENVIRONMENT. Opportunities of SEIS and SISE: Integrating Environmental Knowledge in Europe (eds Hřebí;ček J, Hradec J, Pelikaín E, Mií;rovskyí O, Pillmann W, Holoubek I and Bandholtz T). Masaryk University, Brno, pp. 94-103.
74. Phillips LD (1984) A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychologica 56(1-3), 29-48.
75. Pratt JW (1964) Risk aversion in the small and in the large. Econometrica 32(1-2), 122-136.
76. Raiffa H (2006) Preferences for multi-attributed alternatives. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 14(4-6), 115-157.
77. Regan HM, Ben-Haim Y, Langford B, Wilson WG, Lundberg P, Andelman SJ and Burgman MA (2005) Robust decision-making under severe uncertainty for conservation management. Ecological Applications 15(4), 1471-1477.
78. Reis S (2005) Costs of Air Pollution Control. Springer, Berlin. Ríos-Insua D and French S (1991) A framework for sensitivity analysis in discrete multi-objective decision-making. European Journal of Operational Research 54(2), 176-190.
79. Rosenhead J, Elton M and Gupta SK (1972) Robustness and optimality as criteria for strategic decisions. Journal of the Operational Research Society 23(4), 413-431.
80. Rowe WD (1994) Understanding uncertainty. Risk Analysis 14(5), 743-750.
81. Roy B (1991) The outranking approach and the foundations of electre methods. Theory and Decision 31(1), 49-73.
82. Roy B (2010) Robustness in operational research and decision aiding: a multi-faceted issue. European Journal of Operational Research 200(3), 629-638.
83. Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Gatelli D, Saisana M and Tarantola S (2008) Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. Wiley-Interscience, Chichester.
84. Schoemaker PJ and Heijden CAvd (1992) Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at Royal Dutch/Shell. Strategy & Leadership 20(3), 41-46.
85. Schoemaker PJH (1993) Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strategic Management Journal 14(3), 193-213.
86. Schöpp W, Amann M, Cofala J, Heyes C and Klimont Z (1998) Integrated assessment of european air pollution emission control strategies. Environmental Modelling and Software 14(1), 1-9.
87. Sigel K, Klauer B and Pahl-Wostl C (2010) Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decisionmaking: The example of the EU water framework directive. Ecological Economics 69(3), 502-510.
88. Simon HA (1979) Rational decision making in business organizations. The American Economic Review 69(4), 493-513.
89. Siskos Y and Spyridakos A (1999) Intelligent multicriteria decision support: Overview and perspectives. European Journal of Operational Research 113(2), 236-246.
90. Sluijs JPvd, Craye M, Funtowicz S, Kloprogge P, Ravetz J and Risbey J (2005) Combining quantitative and qualitative measures of uncertainty in model-based environmental assessment: The NUSAP System. Risk Analysis 25(2), 481-492.
91. Snowden D (2005) Strategy in the context of uncertainty. Handbook of Business Strategy 6(1), 47-54.
92. Stewart TJ (1992) A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice. Omega 20(5-6), 569-586.
93. Stewart TJ (1996) Robustness of Additive Value Function Methods in MCDM. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 5(4), 301-309.
94. Timmermans D and Vlek C (1992) Multi-attribute decision support and complexity: An evaluation and process analysis of aided versus unaided decision making. Acta Psychologica 80(1-3), 49-65.
95. Torra V (1997) The weighted owa operator. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 12(2), 153-166.
96. Valls A, Batet M and López EM (2009) Using expert's rules as background knowledge in the clusdm methodology. European Journal of Operational Research 195(3), 864-875.
97. van der Pas JWGM, Walker WE, Marchau VAWJ, Van Wee GP and Agusdinata DB (2010) Exploratory MCDA for handling deep uncertainties: the case of intelligent speed adaptation implementation. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 17(1-2), 1-23.
98. Van Dingenen R, Dentener FJ, Raes F, Krol MC, Emberson L and Cofala J (2009) The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation. Atmospheric Environment 43(3), 604-618.
99. Van Schie E and Van Der Pligt J (1995) Influencing risk preference in decision making: The effects of framing and salience. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 63(3), 264-275.
100. Vincke P (1999) Robust solutions and methods in decision-aid. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 8(3), 181-187.
101. von Winterfeldt D and Edwards W (1986) Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
102. Wright A (2005) The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Management Decision 43(1), 87-101.
103. Wright G and Goodwin P (2009) Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting 25(4), 813-825.
104. Xu Z (2005) An overview of methods for determining OWA weights. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 20(8), 843-865.
105. Yager RR (1988) On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multicriteria decisionmaking. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 18(1), 183-190.
106. Yager RR (2002) On the valuation of alternatives for decision-making under uncertainty. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 17(7), 687-707.
107. Yager RR (2008) Decision making under Dempster-Shafer uncertainties. In Classic Works of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions (eds Yager R and Liu L), vol. 219 of Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing. Springer, Berlin, pp. 619-632.