Believe in the model: Mishandle the emergency

Proceedings of ISCRAM 2004 - 1st International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management

Volumn , Issue , 2004, Pages 9-14

  French, Simon ^a   Niculae, Carmen ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cynefin; Decision making; Decision support systems (DSS); Emergency management; Integrated crisis management and communication; Model predictions; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE; CIVIL AVIATION; CIVIL DEFENSE; DECISION MAKING; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; DISASTERS; FORECASTING; INFORMATION SYSTEMS; RISK MANAGEMENT;

CRISIS MANAGEMENT; CYNEFIN; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS); EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT; MODEL PREDICTION; UNCERTAINTY;

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS;

EID: 84905489906     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (34)

1. Bazerman, M., 2002. Managerial Decision Making, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
2. Britkov, V. and Sergeev, G., 1998. Risk management: role of social factors in major industrial accidents. Safety Science, 173-181.
3. Chan, K., Tarantola, S. and Campolongo, F. (Eds.), 1998. SAMO: Second International Symposium on Sensitivity Analysis in Model Output, European Commission, Luxembourg.
4. Commission on the Three Mile Island Accident, 1979. Report of The President's Commission on the Accident at Three Miles Island. US GPO, Washington DC
5. Craig, P. S., Goldstein, M., Seheult, A. H. and Smith, J. A., 1997. Pressure matching for hydrocarbon reservoirs: a case study in the use of Bayes linear strategies for large computer experiments, with discussion. In Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics III (Eds, Gatsonis, C., Hodges, J. S., Kass, R. E., McCulloch, R., Rossi, P. and Singpurwalla, N. D.) Springer, New York, pp. 37-93.
6. Ehrhardt, J., Brown, J., French, S., Kelly, G. N., Mikkelsen, T. and H, M., 1997. RODOS: decision making support for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents. Kerntechnik, 62, 122-128.
7. French, S., 1997. Uncertainty modelling, data assimilation and decision support for management of off-site nuclear emergencies. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 73, 11-15.
8. French, S., 2003. Modelling, making inferences and making decisions: the roles of sensitivity analysis. TOP, 11, 229-252.
9. French, S., Bartzis, J., Ehrhardt, J., Lochard, J., Morrey, M., Papamichail, K. N., Sinkko, K. and Sohier, A., 2000. RODOS: Decision support for nuclear emergencies. In Recent Developments and Applications in Decision Making (Eds, Zanakis, S. H., Doukidis, G. and Zopounidis, G.) Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 379-394.
10. French, S. and Battson, A., 2003. Review and implications of research on the cognitive understanding of uncertainties relating to spatial and temporal plots. In ENSEMBLE Technical Notes, ENSEMBLE(WG3)-TN(03)01. Manchester Business School, Manchester
11. French, S. and Maule, A. J., 1999. Improving risk communication: scenario based workshops. In Risk Communication and Public Health: Policy Science and Participation (Eds, Bennett, P. G. and Calman, K. C.) Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 241-253.
12. French, S. and Rios Insua, D., 2000. Statistical Decision Theory, Arnold, London.
13. Gallupe, B., 2001. Knowledge management systems: surveying the landscape. International Journal of Management Reviews, 3, 61-77.
14. Garvey, B. and Williamson, B., 2002. Beyond Knowledge Management: Dialogue, Creativity and the Corporate Curriculum, Prentice Hall, Harlow.
15. Goossens, L. H. J. and Kelly, G. N., 2000. Special: Issue: Expert Judgement and Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 90, 293-381.
16. Heriard Dubreuil, G., Lochard, J., Girard, P., Guyonnet, J. F. and Le Cardinal, S. L., 1999. Chernobyl post-accident management: the ETHOS project. Health Physics, 77, 361-372.
17. International Atomic Energy Agency, 1991. The International Chernobyl Project: Technical Report. IAEA, Vienna
18. Karaoglou, A., Desmet, G., Kelly, G. N. and Menzel, H. G. (Eds.), 1996. The Radiological Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident, European Commission, Luxembourg.
19. Klein, G., 1993. A recognition primed decision model (RPM) of rapid decision making. In Decision Making in Action: Models and Method (Ed, Klein, G.) Ablex.
20. Lee, H. and Choi, B., 2003. Knowledge management enablers, processes and organisational performance: an integrative view and empirical examination. Journal of Management Information Systems, 20, 179-288.
21. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L. D., 1982. Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980. In Judgement under Uncertainty (Eds, Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. and Tversky, A.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 306-334.
22. Lord Phillips, 2000. The Phillips Report on the BSE Crisis. HMSO, London
23. Marakas, G. M., 1999. Decision Support Systems in the 21st Century., Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
24. Marwick, A. D., 2001. Knowledge Management Technology. IBM Systems Journal, 40, 814-830.
25. Nonaka, I., 1999. The dynamics of knowledge creation. In The Knowledge Advantage (Eds, Ruggles, R. and Holtshouse, D.) Capstone, Dover, NH, pp. 63-87.
26. O'Hagan, A., Kennedy, M. C. and Oakley, J. E., 1998. Uncertainty analysis and other inference tools for complex computer codes. In Bayesian Statistics 6 (Eds, Bernardo, J. M., Berger, J. O., Dawid, A. P. and Smith, A. F. M.) Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 503-524.
27. Phillips, L. D., 1982. Requisite Decision Making: A Case Study. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 33, 303-311.
28. Polyani, M., 1962. Personal Knowledge, Anchor Day Books, New York.
29. Renn, O. and Levine, D., 1991. Credibility and trust in risk communication. In Communicating Risks to the Public The Netherlands (Eds, Kasperson, R. E. and Stallen, P. J. M.) Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Hague, pp. 175-218.
30. Rosenhead, J. and Mingers, J. (Eds.), 2001. Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
31. Snowden, D., 2002. Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness. Journal of Knowledge Management, 6, 100-111.
32. Ten Have, S., ten Have, W., Stevens, F. and van der Elst, M., 2003. Key Management Models, FT Prentice Hall, London.
33. Walsham, G., 2001. Knowledge management: the benefits and limitations of computer systems. European Management Journal, 19, 599.
34. Zerger, A., 2002. Examining GIS decision utility for natural hazard risk modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software, 17, 287-294.